固收周报 地缘紧张局势持续 通胀担忧导致美债转跌 美债收益率上周继续明显上升， 10 年期和 2 年期美债收益率分别上行 14 个和 16 个基点至 4.28% 和 3.72% ，主要因为市场担忧高油价持续所导致的潜在通胀问题。 关键期限的美债已经完全回吐了年内所有涨幅，其中 10 年期和 2 年期美债收益 率分别较 25 年末上行 11 个和 24 个基点。 2 年期美债收益率上行幅度更大主要反 应市场担忧通胀预期升温下，后续美联储降息空间更加有限。正如上周周报所言， 目前形势不确定性仍较大，霍尔木兹海峡通航限制持续时间仍是关键。受到美债 收益率大幅上行的拖累，中资美元债连续两周明显下挫，彭博巴克莱中资美元债 总回报指数上周下跌 0.5% 。在岸市场方面， 3 年期和 10 年期国债收益率全周分 别上行 1 个和 3 个基点至 1.37% 和 1.81% 。通胀预期改善，加上 1-2 月份宏观数 据显示工业生产和出口表现靓丽，固定投资数据也有所改善，零售数据虽然仍较 为疲弱但好于市场预期，以及在人行引导下，市场对未来货币政策宽松预期有所 减弱，共同推动国债收益率回升。不过，总的来看，货币政策将保持支持性，利 ...

3月16日，南下资金今日净卖出港股12.5亿港元。其中：净买入腾讯控股22.87亿、阿里巴巴-W 7.06亿、比亚迪股份5.86亿、 吉利汽车4.42亿、华虹半导体（核心股）3.87亿、中国海洋石油3.47亿、长飞光纤光缆1.65亿；净卖出盈富基金35.74亿、小 米集团-W 8.44亿、中芯国际3.3亿。据统计，南下资金连续4日净买入中海油，共计33.8424亿港元。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交領 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盈高基金 | 1.6% | -35.74 | 37.05 Z | 腾讯控股 | 2.0% | 18.66 | 34.75 L | | 中国海洋石油 | -1.1% | 7.31 | 34.93 Z | 中国海洋石油 | -1.1% | -3.84 | 22.93 Z | | 腾讯控股 | 2.0% | 4.21 | 29.36 Z | 小米集团-W | 5.6% | 0.14 | 16.99亿 | | 小米集团-W | 5.6% ...

据统计，南下资金连续4日净买入中海油，共计33.8424亿港元。 格隆汇3月16日｜南下资金今日净卖出港股12.5亿港元。其中： 净买入腾讯控股22.87亿、阿里巴巴-W 7.06亿、比亚迪股份5.86亿、吉利汽车4.42亿、华虹半导体3.87 亿、中国海洋石油3.47亿、长飞光纤光缆1.65亿； 净卖出盈富基金35.74亿、小米集团-W 8.44亿、中芯国际3.3亿。 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.13% to 25,465.6 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.62% to 4,978.08 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.50% to 8,671.48 points during the week from March 9 to March 13, 2026[4]. - Among the sectors, Energy rose by 4.77%, Industrial by 3.87%, and Information Technology by 2.15%, while Real Estate fell by 3.79%, Materials by 3.17%, and Consumer Staples by 2.22%[6]. Liquidity and Fund Flows - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 2,934.26 billion, a decrease of HKD 481.59 billion from the previous week[12]. - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 524.40 billion, an increase of HKD 605.34 billion compared to the previous week[12]. - Over the past week, global active foreign funds experienced a net outflow of USD 4.59 million, while passive foreign funds saw a net outflow of USD 6.05 million[17]. Valuation and Risk Premium - As of March 13, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.33 times and 1.27 times, respectively, placing them at the 80% and 64% percentile levels since 2010[27]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 3.83%, which is at the 3% percentile level since 2010[29]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses significant risks to the Hong Kong market, primarily due to potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to increased inflation and operational costs for companies[48]. - A strong US dollar driven by market risk aversion may lead to reduced allocations to risk assets, further pressuring the Hong Kong market[48]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the greatest advantage for Hong Kong stocks is their valuation discount, but not all undervalued sectors are recommended for investment[49]. - Key sectors for potential investment include Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Communication Services, which are expected to benefit from performance and valuation support[49].

2026 年 3 月 15 日 行业研究 锚定供应链安全，筑牢能源安全底线 ——石油化工行业周报第 442 期（20260309—20260315） 要点 美伊冲突持续凸显能源安全重要性，"十五五"规划纲要强调能源资源供应 保障。本周美伊冲突持续，伊朗维持对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，截断中东能源出 口，原油供给端受到大幅度冲击，驱动油价宽幅上涨。3 月 13 日，我国"十 五五"规划纲要正式发布，"十五五"规划纲要第五十二章第二节指出，坚持 立足国内、补齐短板、多元保障、强化储备，加强能源产供储销体系建设，坚 持油气核心需求自主保障，加强能源资源开发国际合作，维护战略通道安全等。 今年以来国际局势动荡加剧，中东地区地缘冲突威胁全球能源运输战略通道， 全球能源供应链安全受到较大挑战，维护我国能源安全的重要性不断增强。 担当国内能源保供"顶梁柱"，"三桶油"战略价值凸显。作为我国能源保 供的主力军，"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支，在外部环境不确定性加剧、 油价面临大幅波动的背景下，"三桶油"将继续加强增储上产，中国石油、中 国石化、中国海油 25 年油气当量产量计划分别同比增长 1.6%、1.5%、5.9%。 "三桶油 ...

2026年03月13日 证券研究报告 | 原油行业分析框架 u 原油兼具大宗商品、地缘政治和金融三大属性，价格形成机制较为复杂。原油作为大宗商品，价格受供需、库存影响较大。地缘政治方面的战争及特殊事件会对 原油价格造成冲击。而原油多以美元进行支付，美元利率同样会影响原油价格。原油作为应用最广泛的大宗商品之一，任何"黑天鹅"事件都将对油价造成剧烈冲击， 但中长期视角看，原油价格中枢受供需基本面影响最大。2023年以来，原油供需基本面趋于宽松，油价中枢不断下行。 u 供给方面，中东地区储备占比接近60%，沙特阿拉伯、美国和俄罗斯是世界原油市场重要供应方。原油资源可根据地理位置、油质、开采难度等因素分为常规和 非常规两大类。中东地区坐拥丰富的常规石油资源，而美国则以非常规石油中的页岩油为主。OPEC是对国际原油价格影响最大的组织之一，其通过联合控制产量，进 而调控油价。美国通过"页岩油革命"成为全球第一大石油生产国，由于其资源劣质化较快，新油井的盈亏平衡成本不断走高，美国石油产量将下降。 u 需求方面，石油需求与全球经济增长高度相关，经济结构也对石油需求量有较大影响。宏观层面上，石油需求中长期与全球经济增长高度相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from China's offshore oil and gas sector indicates significant potential in deep-sea oil and gas production, with projections for substantial increases in output by 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Production Projections - By 2025, China's largest offshore gas field, "Deep Sea No. 1," is expected to exceed an oil equivalent production of 4.5 million tons, comparable to medium-sized onshore oil fields, with advanced production operation and maintenance technologies [2]. - The cumulative oil and gas production from the offshore gas fields around Hainan Island, including "Deep Sea No. 1," is projected to surpass 10 million tons of oil equivalent by 2025, doubling the production compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with deep-sea fields contributing over 90% of the new production in the region [2]. - The Bohai Oilfield, China's largest offshore oil field, is anticipated to achieve a cumulative oil and gas production of over 40 million tons of oil equivalent by 2025, marking a historical high [2]. Group 2: Exploration and Development Efforts - According to the "China Marine Energy Development Report 2025," China's offshore oil production is expected to reach approximately 6.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 250,000 tons, accounting for 80% of the national oil production increase [2]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, China has made five new discoveries in its maritime areas, successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, and launched 11 new projects, indicating a robust exploration effort [2]. - Significant breakthroughs have been achieved in the Beibu Gulf Basin, including the discovery of China's first deep and ultra-deep clastic rock oil field with a billion-ton capacity, the Huizhou 19-6 oil field [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - "Deep Sea No. 1" is noted for being the most challenging offshore gas field developed by China, with a maximum operational water depth exceeding 1,500 meters and a geological temperature reaching 138 degrees Celsius, boasting proven geological reserves of over 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas [3]. - The field's core facilities, including the "Deep Sea No. 1" energy station and the "Four Stars in a Row" platform group, possess the capability for deep-sea oil and gas processing, enabling on-site separation and transportation of natural gas and crude oil [3]. - Daily production from "Deep Sea No. 1" includes 15 million cubic meters of natural gas and over 1,600 tons of condensate oil, with plans to achieve an annual natural gas production of 5 billion cubic meters by 2025, surpassing the designed capacity peak [3].

恒指跌0.52%，恒生科技指数跌0.42%。理想汽车、宁德时代、地平线机器人跌幅靠前；中国神华涨逾2%，网易涨近2%，中国海洋石油、中国石油股份涨逾 1%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

（根據公司條例在香港註冊成立的有限責任公司） 股票代號：00883（港幣櫃台）及 80883（人民幣櫃台） 中國海洋石油有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）宣佈將於二零二六年三月二十六日 （星期四）召開董事會會議，董事會將於會議上通過議案，其中包括批准本公司及其附屬公司截 至二零二五年十二月三十一日止年度的全年業績，以及考慮派發末期股息之建議。 承董事會命 中國海洋石油有限公司 徐玉高 聯席公司秘書 香港，二零二六年三月十二日 董事會會議召開日期 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 於本公告刊發日期， 董事會由以下成員組成： 非執行董事 張傳江 （董事長） 王德華 執行董事 閻洪濤 穆秀平 獨立非執行董事 邱致中 林伯強 李淑賢 ...

Group 1 - Southbound funds net purchased Hong Kong stocks amounting to 34.48 billion HKD on March 11 [1][3] - The top net purchases included China National Offshore Oil Corporation (10.39 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (6.98 billion HKD), Geely Automobile (5.31 billion HKD), Xiaomi Group-W (1.59 billion HKD), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1.55 billion HKD), and SMIC (1.37 billion HKD) [1] - Notable net sales were observed in Tencent Holdings (24.35 billion HKD), ending its previous eight-day net buying streak, as well as China Construction Bank (8.26 billion HKD), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.85 billion HKD), and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (1.2 billion HKD) [1][4] Group 2 - Southbound funds have net purchased Alibaba for three consecutive days, totaling 20.3096 billion HKD [1]