2026 年 04 月 01 日 油价下行拖累业绩、高储备低成本支撑盈利弹性 —中国海油（600938.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 中国海油发布 2025 年年度业绩报告：2025 年公司实现营业 总收入 3982.20 亿元，同比减少 5.30%；实现归母净利润 1220.82 亿元，同比减少 11.49%。其中，公司 2025Q4 单季度 实现营业收入 857.17 亿元，同比减少 9.28%，环比减少 18.28%；实现归母净利润 201.11 亿元，同比减少 5.48%，环 比减少 38.00%。 投资要点 | 分析师：卢昊 | S1050526020001 | | --- | --- | | luhao@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | | gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | | ▌产量增长对冲油价下跌，成本优势构筑盈利韧性 | 基本数据 | 2026-03-31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 40 | | 总市值（亿元） | 19012 | | 总股本（百万股） | 47530 | | 流通股本（ ...

2026 年 04 月 01 日 油价下行拖累业绩、高储备低成本支撑盈利弹性 —中国海油（600938.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 中国海油发布 2025 年年度业绩报告：2025 年公司实现营业 总收入 3982.20 亿元，同比减少 5.30%；实现归母净利润 1220.82 亿元，同比减少 11.49%。其中，公司 2025Q4 单季度 实现营业收入 857.17 亿元，同比减少 9.28%，环比减少 18.28%；实现归母净利润 201.11 亿元，同比减少 5.48%，环 比减少 38.00%。 投资要点 ▌产量增长对冲油价下跌，成本优势构筑盈利韧性 公司 2025 年业绩承压下滑主要是受到国际油价下降影响。 2025 年内，各主要原油生产国多次增产，叠加上新能源消费 对原油消费的替代性冲击，导致国际油价整体走弱。2025 年 公司平均实现油价 66.47 美元/桶，同比下降 13.4%；天然气 平均实现价格为 7.95 美元/千立方英尺，同比上涨 3.0%。受 到低油价拖累，公司 2025 年油气销售收入 3357 亿元，同比 下滑 5.6%。公司通过增储上产和成本管控来对冲价格风 ...

中[Ta国ble海_Sto油ckN（ameRptType] 600938） 公司点评 产量上台阶成本再压缩，油价中枢上行配置价值凸显 | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026-04-01 |  | 事件描述 | | 收盘价（元） | 40.00 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 44.54/23.11 | | 总股本（百万股） | 47,530 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2,990 | | 流通股比例（%） | 6.29 | | 总市值（亿元） | 19,012 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,196 | 执业证书号：S0010522110002 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 相关报告 1.25Q3 业绩符合预期，巩固成本竞争 力 2025-11-02 2.25H1 业绩符合预期，产量增长抵消 油价波动影响 2025-09-04 3.油气净产量稳步增长，成本竞争优 势巩固 2025-05-21 主要观点： 事件描述 3 月 27 日公司发布 2025 年报，全年公司实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to falling oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB. However, with escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, oil prices may rise in 2026, potentially benefiting the company's performance [4]. - The company achieved an average oil price of $66.47 per barrel in 2025, a decrease of $10.28 per barrel year-on-year, but the discount to Brent crude narrowed by $1.69 per barrel compared to the previous year [4]. - Oil and gas production increased in 2025, with oil production at 599.7 million barrels and gas production at 177.6 million barrels, representing year-on-year growth of 6% and 12%, respectively. The company expects production to reach 780-800 million barrels in 2026, with a growth rate adjustment due to ongoing planning [4]. - The company maintained a low oil cost of $27.90 per barrel, a decrease of $0.62 per barrel year-on-year, benefiting from lower taxes and operational costs [4]. - Capital expenditures in 2025 were lower than the initial target, with actual spending at 120.5 billion RMB, and the company plans to maintain capital expenditures at a high level in 2026 [4]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 45%, with a total dividend of 1.28 HKD per share for 2025, aligning with its commitment to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 398.22 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122.08 billion RMB, down 11.5% year-on-year [5]. - The projected net profit for 2026-2028 is 157.24 billion RMB, 157.42 billion RMB, and 162.08 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 28.8%, 0.1%, and 3.0% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is projected to be 3.31 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.42 for A-shares and 7.72 for H-shares [6].

2026.3.26 Annual Results Board of Directors and Management at Today's Conference Huang Yongzhang Vice Chairman, Executive Director, CEO, President Senior Vice President, CFO Financial Results Yan Hongtao Senior Vice President Mu Xiuping Xu Yugao General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, Joint Company Secretary, Secretary to the Board 2 01 02 03 04 Operating Results Remarks Q&A Session 3 Macro Environment 2025 GDP growth rates 3.3% 1.7% 4.4% Global Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economie ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 398.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.30%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 122.08 billion yuan, down 11.49% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 120.38 billion yuan, a decline of 9.8% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q4 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 85.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.28% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20.11 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit increased by 11.04% year-on-year to 19.46 billion yuan [2][6] - The company achieved record highs in oil and gas production and reserves, with a net production of 777.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a significant increase of 7% year-on-year. The average price of Brent crude oil was 68.2 USD per barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was 66.47 USD per barrel, a decrease of 13.4% [12][12] - The company has maintained a cost advantage, with the main cost per barrel at 27.9 USD, down 2.17% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience during periods of declining oil prices [12][12] - Looking ahead, the company targets an oil and gas production of 780-800 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2026, with expectations of oil prices remaining at a mid-high level due to geopolitical tensions [12][12] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 45%, with total dividends of about 60.84 billion HKD in 2025 [12][12] Financial Summary - For 2025, the total operating revenue is projected at 398.22 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 122.08 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 are estimated at 3.72 yuan, 3.29 yuan, and 3.37 yuan respectively [18][18] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the closing price on March 26, 2026, are projected to be 11.01X for 2026, 12.43X for 2027, and 12.13X for 2028 [12][18]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently trading at 24,856.43 points, within a clear range of 24,203.54 to 27,325.98 points, indicating a volatility of approximately 12.9% [1][2] - Short-term support is observed at around 24,200 points, which is close to recent lows, while resistance is seen between 25,000 and 25,200 points [1][2] - The market sentiment remains weak, with technical indicators showing downward trends, suggesting that any rebounds are merely technical recoveries within a bearish context [1][4] Group 2 - Bullish investors noted an increase of 600 million in bull certificates and a decrease of 400 million in bear certificates, indicating attempts to capitalize on a potential rebound [3][4] - Bearish investors believe the index will continue to decline, with a focus on the 24,200 support level, which is critical for determining market direction [2][4] - The distribution of certificates shows a concentration of bull certificates around the 24,000 to 24,199 range and bear certificates between 25,400 and 25,799, reflecting a market engaged in range-bound trading rather than a clear directional bias [3][4] Group 3 - The technical state of the market indicates that moving averages are still trending downwards, and the relative strength index (RSI) is weak, suggesting insufficient buying power [1][4] - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that while the index is approaching a weak area, there is no clear signal of a trend reversal yet [1][4] - The market is characterized by a lack of consensus direction, with both bullish and bearish perspectives having valid arguments, but neither side showing a strong advantage at this time [4][4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of 398.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122.08 billion yuan, down 11.5% compared to the previous year, reflecting the impact of geopolitical factors and market supply-demand dynamics on international oil prices [3][4]. Financial Performance - The average Brent crude oil price in 2025 was approximately $68.2 per barrel, a decline of 14.6% year-on-year, leading to a daily profit of about 330 million yuan for CNOOC [3]. - CNOOC achieved record high reserves and production in 2025, with net proven reserves of 7.77 billion barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and total oil and gas production of 777 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7% year-on-year [3]. - The company maintained a leading cost advantage in the industry, with an average cost of $27.9 per barrel of oil equivalent, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - CNOOC has been actively developing offshore wind power and other renewable energy sectors, having acquired over 11 million kilowatts of renewable resources by the end of 2025, with more than 1.08 million kilowatts already in operation [5]. - The company plans to progressively develop the acquired resources and aims to strengthen its position in the offshore wind power sector [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from high oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, leading to an upward revision of Brent oil price forecasts for 2026-2028 to $80/75/75 per barrel [4]. - The company's oil and gas production reached a new high, with net production of 777.3 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [2][12]. - The company reported a decline in net profit for 2025, down 11.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a 13.4% drop in oil prices [1][10]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 398.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 122.08 billion yuan [1][10]. - The average realized price for oil liquids in 2025 was $66.5 per barrel, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the average realized gas price increased by 3.0% to $7.95 per thousand cubic feet [2][15]. - The company maintained a stable free cash flow of 97.4 billion yuan in 2025, with capital expenditures of 120.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year [3][19]. Production and Exploration - The company successfully discovered six new oil and gas fields in 2025 and confirmed net reserves of 777 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a reserve life of 10 years [3][19]. - A total of 16 new projects were successfully launched in 2025, including significant developments in both domestic and international locations [3][19]. Future Guidance - The company has provided guidance for capital expenditures in 2026 to be between 112 billion and 122 billion yuan, with production guidance of 780-800 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%-2.9% [3][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in oil and gas production in 2025, demonstrating strong profitability resilience [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in oil and gas output, with a net production of 777 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7% year-on-year [7]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a major oil cost of $27.90 per barrel, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [7]. - The report anticipates a target of 780-800 million barrels of oil equivalent for total production in 2026 [7]. - The company is focused on shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, translating to an annual dividend of 1.28 HKD per share [7]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, projecting net profits of 166.7 billion and 151.9 billion RMB respectively, reflecting the successful advancement of new projects and potential oil price increases due to geopolitical conflicts [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 398.22 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 122.08 billion RMB, down 11.49% year-on-year [1][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.57 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.94 for A-shares [1][8]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be 120.5 billion RMB, a reduction of 9% year-on-year, with a forecasted budget of 112-122 billion RMB for 2026 [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 1,210.76 billion RMB by 2026, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 26.71% for 2025 [8].