Core Viewpoint - The A-share apparel sector has shown a positive revenue growth in Q3 2025, with significant net profit growth, primarily due to a lower base in Q3 2024. The home textile segment performed particularly well, while the textile manufacturing sector saw a narrowing decline in both revenue and profit [1][3]. Industry Review - Demand Side: - Online retail sales of clothing in China from January to September increased by 2.8% year-on-year, accelerating compared to the previous months [2]. - In the U.S., retail sales of clothing and accessories rose by 8.3% year-on-year in August, marking an acceleration from July, with continuous month-on-month growth since May [2]. - Export Side: - China's textile and apparel exports in September decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with textile exports up by 6% and garment exports down by 8% [2]. - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports in September increased by 9% year-on-year, showing an acceleration compared to August [2]. Apparel Sector Q3 2025 Summary - Performance Review: - The A-share apparel sector's revenue growth turned positive in Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 10.6% compared to a decline of 22.0% in Q2 [3]. - The home textile segment, particularly brands like Luolai and Mercury, showed significant revenue and profit growth [3]. - Operational Efficiency: - Most brands experienced an increase in inventory turnover days year-on-year, except for Ge Li Si, Youngor, Luolai Life, and Mercury Home Textile, which saw a decrease [3]. Textile Manufacturing Q3 2025 Summary - Performance Review: - The revenue decline in the A-share textile manufacturing sector narrowed in Q3 2025, with a decrease of 0.4% compared to 1.9% in Q2 [5]. - Profit decline also narrowed, with a decrease of 11.2% in Q3 compared to 20.4% in Q2, with companies like Nanshan Zhishang and Fuchun Dyeing leading in growth [5]. - Future Outlook: - The impact of short-term tariffs is expected to end by year-end, with future order demand being a key variable. Most overseas brands completed price increases in Q3, making Q4 U.S. consumption trends an important observation [5]. - The concentration of orders and capacity advantages for midstream OEMs with mature overseas production capabilities will become more prominent [5]. - The efficiency of new production capacity and the pace of improvement need to be monitored, with a balanced production line allocation mechanism being crucial [5]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the performance recovery logic for the export manufacturing sector appears clearer, driven by the implementation of U.S. tariff policies, reduced pressure on brands, and ongoing efficiency improvements [6]. - Recommended stocks include: - For home textiles: Luolai Life, Mercury Home Textile, and Fuanna [6]. - For light luxury: Prada and Samsonite [6]. - For undervalued high-dividend stocks: Bosideng, Jiangnan Buyi, and Taobo [6].

Core Viewpoint - Haidong International's report indicates a cautious outlook for Prada's net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with revised profit forecasts reflecting a slower recovery in the industry compared to previous expectations [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Prada's revenue reached €1.33 billion, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, with fixed exchange rates applied [2] - By brand, Prada's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's revenue surged by 29%, following a high base of 105% growth in the same period last year [2] - Regional performance showed varied results, with North America leading growth at 20%, while Japan experienced a slight decline of 1% [2] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Miu Miu's growth potential, driven by high-quality brand growth and significant store expansion opportunities [3] - Prada is expected to enhance its product offerings through increased creative investment in leather goods and marketing of iconic products, aiming to broaden its consumer base [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Haitong International indicates a cautious outlook for Prada (01913) with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a moderate growth trajectory amid industry recovery challenges [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Prada reported revenue of €1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (fixed exchange rate) [2] - By brand, Prada's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's revenue grew by 29%, following a high base of 105% growth in the same period last year [2] - Regional performance showed year-on-year revenue changes: Asia-Pacific +10%, Europe +2%, North America +20%, Japan -1%, Middle East +10%, with North America leading growth despite a high base [2] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Miu Miu's growth potential, driven by high-quality brand growth and significant store expansion opportunities [3] - As of the end of 2024, Miu Miu is expected to have 147 direct stores globally, compared to over 300 for YSL and BV, indicating room for growth [3] - Prada plans to enhance its product offerings through increased creative investment in leather goods and marketing of iconic products, aiming to broaden consumer reach [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Prada's revenue growth has slowed to single digits in Q2 and Q3, with the Prada brand experiencing its first negative growth since 2020 [1] - Miu Miu brand continues to grow faster than peers, but its growth is normalizing, requiring significant investment in advertising, manufacturing, IT infrastructure, and retail network expansion, which may suppress profit margin expansion [1] - The target price for the company has been raised from HKD 45 to HKD 53.8, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2 - The overall sales forecast for the group has been increased by approximately 1% for 2025, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by about 1% due to adverse currency factors [1] - Operating expenses are expected to normalize, leading to EBIT and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 being adjusted upwards by 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1] - The profit margin for 2024 is projected to remain at 23.6%, which is approximately 350 basis points lower than historical highs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Prada's third-quarter retail sales largely met market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% when calculated at constant exchange rates [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Retail sales for the Prada and Miu Miu brands were in line with market expectations, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% for Prada and a year-on-year increase of 29% for Miu Miu [1] - The Chinese market for the Prada core brand still experienced negative growth, but there was a quarter-on-quarter improvement in the third quarter [1] - Positive growth was achieved in the Americas, Europe, and Japan, driven by strong local demand and a slight improvement in tourism demand, leading to quarter-on-quarter improvements [1] Group 2: Management Outlook - Management believes that the worst period for the Chinese market has passed [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "Outperform" rating for Prada with a target price of HKD 50, citing the company's ongoing market share expansion [1] - The valuation is considered low at 26 times enterprise value/EBITDA, representing a 53% discount compared to the industry average [1]

Core Insights - LVMH and Kering both experienced significant stock price increases following their Q3 earnings reports, indicating positive market sentiment towards the luxury goods sector [1][2][3] Financial Performance - LVMH's quarterly revenue growth rates were -3%, -4%, and 1% for Q1 to Q3, showing a shift from negative to positive growth in Q3 [4] - Kering's revenue growth rates were -14%, -15%, and -5%, with a notable reduction in the decline during Q3 compared to previous quarters [4] - Prada maintained stable growth rates of 13%, 8%, and 8% across the same quarters [4] - Hermès showed consistent growth with rates of 7%, 9%, and 10%, indicating a steady upward trend [5] - Overall, all four luxury brands reported strong performance in Q3, with most showing improved year-over-year growth compared to the previous two quarters [6] Regional Sales Analysis - LVMH saw improved revenue growth in all regions except Europe, with the U.S. and Asia (excluding Japan) achieving positive growth rates of 3% and 2% respectively [7] - Kering reported a positive turnaround in North America with a 3% growth rate, while the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) saw a significant narrowing of decline by 9 percentage points [7] - Prada's retail sales in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) grew by 10%, while the Americas experienced a 14.8% increase in retail sales [7] - Hermès reported growth across all regions, with North America leading at 14% [8] Market Trends and Influences - The luxury goods market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in North America, attributed to a strong high-net-worth consumer base and their resilience to economic cycles [10] - There is a notable correlation between luxury spending and stock market performance, with an 87% correlation between luxury demand and the S&P 500 index [10] - The U.S. stock market's performance has positively impacted the wealth of high-net-worth individuals, thereby boosting luxury consumption [11] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese luxury market is showing signs of improvement, influenced by currency fluctuations that have affected consumer behavior [12] - The depreciation of the yen made luxury goods in Japan cheaper for foreign tourists, leading to a temporary decline in Chinese luxury spending abroad [12] - As the yen strengthens, some consumer demand is returning to the Chinese market, although the overall recovery remains limited [12] Future Outlook - The significant improvements in Q3 for LVMH and Kering, particularly in North America and the narrowing of declines in Asia, suggest a potential turning point for the luxury goods sector [13] - The sustainability of this recovery will depend on performance in Q4, as both companies face high base comparisons from the previous year [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Prada Group, indicating a potential for steady profit growth and resilience in its brand portfolio [5][12]. Core Insights - Prada Group reported a revenue of €4.07 billion for the first nine months of FY25, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of positive growth [1][8]. - The acquisition of Versace for an enterprise value of €1.25 billion is expected to open new growth avenues for the group [1][4]. Revenue Performance - For the first nine months of FY25, Prada brand revenue declined by 2% year-on-year, with a 1% decline in 3Q25, showing significant improvement driven by the recovery in core leather goods and ready-to-wear categories [2][9]. - Miu Miu brand revenue surged by 41% year-on-year in 9M25 and 29% in 3Q25, maintaining strong growth despite a high comparison base from the previous year [2][9]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, with notable recovery in mainland China, while the Americas saw a 15% increase, accelerating to 20% in 3Q25 [3][10]. - Europe experienced a 6% growth, supported by stable local demand, while the Middle East recorded a 21% increase [3][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The group is focused on optimizing its retail network, enhancing customer experience, and maintaining a strong product lineup, including high-end offerings [4][11]. - The acquisition of Versace is part of a broader multi-brand strategy aimed at expanding scale and profitability over the long term [4][11]. Future Outlook - Management expresses a cautious yet optimistic view, anticipating steady profit growth supported by a premium product mix and retail efficiency gains [5][12]. - The dual-brand strategy of Prada and Miu Miu, along with the integration potential of Versace, is expected to drive growth exceeding industry averages [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 62.9 Hong Kong Dollars, reflecting a -24% potential downside from the current price [8][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see net profit attributable to shareholders grow from 0.89 billion Euros in 2025 to 1.05 billion Euros in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 8.7%, and 7.6% respectively [8][9]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.33 billion Euros, a 9% increase year-on-year, with Miu Miu showing a 29% growth despite a high base from the previous year [9][10]. - The North American market is leading growth with a 20% increase, driven primarily by Prada, while the Greater China market showed slightly better-than-expected holiday performance [9][10]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for the company is expected to increase from 5.43 billion Euros in 2024 to 6.72 billion Euros in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.8% [2][5]. - Gross profit is forecasted to rise from 4.34 billion Euros in 2024 to 5.39 billion Euros in 2027, maintaining a gross margin of around 80% [2][5]. - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 0.84 billion Euros in 2025 to 1.05 billion Euros in 2027, with a net profit margin of approximately 15.5% [2][5]. Brand Performance - Miu Miu's revenue growth is attributed to high-quality growth and significant same-store sales contributions, with plans for further store expansion [10]. - Prada's leather goods are showing improved performance, and the brand is focusing on enhancing creativity and marketing for iconic products [10]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region in Q3 2025 was as follows: Asia Pacific +10%, Europe +2%, North America +20%, Japan -1%, and Middle East +10% [9][10]. - The North American market's growth is notable given the high base from the previous year, indicating strong brand performance despite challenging conditions [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Prada's third-quarter revenue increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, totaling €1.33 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for the year down by 7.5% to €880 million due to adverse foreign exchange impacts and anticipated additional loans for the acquisition of Versace, which will raise financial costs [1] - Revenue and EBIT forecasts for the current year have been reduced by 6.1% and 6.9%, respectively, to €5.731 billion and €1.359 billion [1] - For the next year, revenue forecasts have been lowered by 9.6% to €6.155 billion, with EBIT and net profit forecasts adjusted down by 13.2% and 14.1%, respectively, to €1.492 billion and €976 million [1] Market Position - The company maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 75 despite the competitive landscape becoming more intense [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Prada's Q3 total sales reached €1.33 billion, exceeding market expectations, but lowers profit forecasts due to adverse foreign exchange factors and increased financial costs from the anticipated acquisition of Versace [1] Financial Performance - Prada's Q3 total sales: €1.33 billion, surpassing market expectations [1] - CICC reduces Prada's full-year profit forecast by 7.5% to €880 million [1] - Adjustments made to full-year revenue and EBIT forecasts: €5.731 billion and €1.359 billion respectively [1] Future Outlook - CICC lowers next year's revenue forecast by 9.6% to €6.155 billion due to intensified market competition [1] - EBIT and profit forecasts for the same period are reduced by 13.2% and 14.1% respectively [1] - Despite the adjustments, CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Prada with a target price of HKD 75 [1]