Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Citi has downgraded Prada's net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6% due to lower sales expectations for Prada and Miu Miu, along with increased advertising and promotional expenses and sales cost forecasts [1] - The valuation basis has been adjusted, with the expected enterprise value to EBIT ratio reduced from 13 times to approximately 9 times, and the target price lowered from HKD 72 to HKD 50, while maintaining an "outperform" rating due to Miu Miu's growing market share and attractive risk-reward ratio [1] - Prada's performance in the first half of the year was slightly below expectations, with revenue recorded at EUR 2.74 billion, which is 2% lower than both Citi's and market expectations, primarily due to slightly disappointing retail net sales for both Prada and Miu Miu brands, which fell by 3.6% and increased by 40% respectively [1] Group 2 - The optimization of channel structure has led to a gross margin that exceeded expectations, but the costs associated with the acquisition of Versace and weak sales have resulted in net profit falling below expectations [1] - The demand for travel consumption has continued to be under pressure in the third quarter to date, and Miu Miu is expected to face the most significant year-on-year comparative base pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has downgraded Prada's net profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6%, citing lower sales expectations for Prada and Miu Miu, alongside increased advertising and promotional expenses and sales costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's revenue for the first half of the year was €2.74 billion, which was 2% lower than both Citi's and market expectations [1] - Retail net sales for the Prada and Miu Miu brands were slightly below expectations, with Prada experiencing a decline of 3.6% and Miu Miu seeing an increase of 40% [1] - The gross margin exceeded expectations due to channel structure optimization, but costs related to the acquisition of Versace and weak sales led to net profit falling short of expectations [1] Group 2: Valuation and Target Price - Citi has adjusted its valuation basis, estimating the enterprise value to EBITDA at approximately 9 times, down from the previous 13 times [1] - The target price for Prada has been reduced from HKD 72 to HKD 50, while maintaining a "outperform" rating due to Miu Miu's growing market share and attractive risk-reward ratio [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The demand for travel consumption has continued to face pressure in the third quarter, with Miu Miu expected to face the most significant year-on-year comparative base pressure [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts pressure on Prada's stock price, lowering the target price from HKD 66 to HKD 62 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating and listing it as an industry favorite [1] - The group performed well in the luxury goods sector during Q2, with continued optimism for the appeal and future growth potential of the Prada and Miu Miu brands [1] - The negative impact of international tourism is expected to peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in Q3 sales forecasts, with the latest prediction showing a fixed exchange rate growth of 8.3%, down from a previous forecast of 10.4% [1] Group 2 - Prada's Q2 performance fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year sales growth of 6.1% at fixed exchange rates, compared to 12.5% in Q1 and market expectations of 9% [1] - Revenue from both the Prada and Miu Miu brands was slightly below expectations, and although same-store sales grew by approximately 9%, there appeared to be a lack of operating leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Prada's (01913) sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with the bank's forecast [1] Financial Performance - Net profit increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's prediction [1] - Macquarie has revised down its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, accounting for the first half performance and brand investments [1] - Target price has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an outperform rating [1] Management Insights - Management expects overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe to stabilize year-on-year by the end of August [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] - Management sees potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations, particularly for MiuMiu, which has low penetration in many countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates pressure on Prada's stock price, lowering the target price from HKD 66 to HKD 62 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, highlighting the brand's strong performance in the luxury goods sector during Q2 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Prada's Q2 sales growth was 6.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, which was below expectations compared to Q1's 12.5% and market expectations of 9% [1] - Revenue from both Prada and Miu Miu brands slightly missed expectations, with same-store sales growth around 9% but lacking operational leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The negative impact of international tourism is expected to peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in Q3 sales forecasts, with the latest prediction showing an 8.3% growth at constant exchange rates, down from a previous forecast of 10.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Prada's (01913) sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with the bank's forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Net profit rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's predictions [1] - The bank has revised down its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, to account for the first half performance and brand investments [1] - Target price has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an outperform rating [1] Market Outlook - Management expects that by the end of August, overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe will stabilize year-on-year [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] - Management also believes that Miu Miu's penetration rate remains low in many countries, indicating potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's stock price fell by 14.32% to HKD 40.1 per share, marking a new low since January 2024, primarily due to disappointing earnings results [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Prada reported net revenue of €2.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with actual growth at 8% [1] - Retail sales reached €2.45 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBIT was €619 million, maintaining a profit margin of 22.6% [1] - Gross margin improved to 80.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Brand Performance - Sales for the Prada and Miu Miu brands were slightly below expectations, with Prada's sales down by 3.6% and Miu Miu's up by 40% [1] - The company is facing significant year-on-year comparison pressure for the Miu Miu brand due to ongoing challenges in tourism consumption [1] Market Reactions and Forecasts - Analysts from various firms have adjusted their profit forecasts for Prada, with a 5% to 6% reduction in net profit predictions for 2025 to 2027 [2] - Morgan Stanley noted a slowdown in luxury goods consumption among cross-border travelers, leading to a 6.1% year-on-year sales growth in Q2, down from 12.5% in Q1 [2] - Target prices for Prada's stock have been revised downwards, with estimates dropping from HKD 72 to HKD 50 by one firm and from HKD 66 to HKD 62 by Morgan Stanley [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Prada's sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year when calculated at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with Macquarie's forecasts [1] - Net profit rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's predictions, primarily due to non-recurring costs associated with the acquisition of Versace [1] - Macquarie has revised its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 downwards by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, to account for the first half performance and brand investments [1] Group 2 - The target price for Prada has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - Management anticipates that overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe will stabilize year-on-year by the end of August [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] Group 3 - Management believes that Miu Miu's penetration rate remains low in many countries, indicating further potential for improvement in product categories and combinations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Prada's second-quarter performance was below expectations due to a slowdown in luxury goods consumption among cross-border travelers, with sales growth at 6.1% year-on-year compared to 12.5% in the first quarter and market expectations of 9% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada and Miu Miu brand revenues were slightly below expectations, with same-store sales growth around 9%, indicating a lack of operating leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than expected [1] - The latest sales forecast for the third quarter has been downgraded to a growth of 8.3% from a previous estimate of 10.4% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the negative impact of international tourism will peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in sales forecasts [1] - The target price for Prada's stock has been reduced from HKD 66 to HKD 62, although the "overweight" rating is maintained, with the firm still viewing Prada and Miu Miu as strong performers in the luxury goods sector [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a continuous decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.13% at 24,880 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.77% at 5,448 points [1]. Company Performance - Prada's mid-term results show an adjusted EBIT of €618.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.55%. The net revenue is approximately €386 million, with a slight growth of 0.62%. Earnings per share stand at €0.151 [3]. - All regions reported growth in sales, with the Asia-Pacific region seeing a net retail sales increase of 10.4%, Europe at 8.6%, the Americas at 12.4%, and Japan at 4.3% [3]. Sector Movements - Technology stocks are collectively declining, with Meituan falling over 3%. Meanwhile, innovative drug concepts are showing positive movement, with Lepu Biopharmaceuticals rising over 5% [3]. - Domestic brokerage stocks are also opening lower, with Everbright Securities down over 2% [3]. - Gold stocks continue to retreat, with China Silver Group dropping over 3% [3]. - Stablecoin concept stocks are generally down, with Jingwei TianDi falling over 6% [3]. ETF Performance - Cross-border ETFs such as the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF and others are up over 2%. Additionally, U.S. ETFs like the S&P 50 ETF and Nasdaq ETFs are up over 1% [3].