Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming creative wave poses risks to Prada (01913) as renowned creative directors join competitive brands, making it difficult to see how Prada and Miu Miu can maintain growth momentum [1] - Despite believing in the group's good management and cheap stock price, Morgan Stanley does not foresee reasons for the group to outperform competitors in the coming months, thus lowering the target price from HKD 53 to HKD 51 and maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] - The firm anticipates that Prada will be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total sales and retail sales in Q4, with Miu Miu's growth rate expected to slow significantly, projecting a Q4 year-on-year growth of only 17%, down from 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - For the Prada brand, Morgan Stanley slightly raised its Q4 organic sales growth (OSG) forecast to flat year-on-year, indicating that the brand's momentum remains robust [2] - For the Miu Miu brand, Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 year-on-year growth forecast to 17%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to the 28.6% growth in Q3, although Miu Miu is still expected to maintain strong momentum and performance [2] - At the group level, Morgan Stanley has reduced its growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 4.4% and for the entire year to 7.6%, leading to a downward revision of the group's earnings per share forecasts by 0.6% and 2.7% for the next two years, respectively [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming creative wave poses risks to Prada (01913) as renowned creative directors join competitive brands, making it difficult to see how Prada and Miu Miu can maintain growth momentum [1] - Despite confidence in the group's good management and cheap stock price, there is no clear reason for the group to outperform competitors in the coming months; thus, the target price is slightly reduced from HKD 53 to HKD 51, with a rating of "in line with the market" [1] - The firm anticipates that Prada will be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total sales and retail sales in Q4, with Miu Miu's growth rate expected to slow significantly, projecting a Q4 year-on-year growth of only 17%, down from 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - For the Prada brand, Morgan Stanley slightly raises its Q4 organic sales growth (OSG) forecast to flat year-on-year, indicating that the brand's momentum remains robust [2] - For the Miu Miu brand, the Q4 year-on-year growth forecast is downgraded to 17%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to the 28.6% growth in Q3; however, Miu Miu is still expected to maintain strong momentum and performance due to its product appeal [2] - At the group level, Morgan Stanley lowers its growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 4.4% and for the entire year to 7.6%, leading to a reduction in earnings per share forecasts for the next two years by 0.6% and 2.7%, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite optimism regarding Prada's brand fundamentals in Q4, the Prada Group is expected to be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total and retail sales in Q4 [1] Group Performance - The growth rate of the subsidiary brand Miu Miu is anticipated to slow significantly, with a projected year-on-year growth of only 17% in Q4, compared to 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Competitive Risks - The upcoming creative wave poses risks to the group, as renowned creative directors are joining competitive brands, making it difficult for Prada and Miu Miu to maintain growth momentum [1] Management and Valuation - Although the group is believed to be well-managed and its stock is considered cheap, there is no clear reason to expect it to outperform competitors in the coming months [1] - Morgan Stanley has slightly reduced its target price from HKD 53 to HKD 51, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1]

Group 1 - Citi's report indicates no significant changes to Prada's revenue, EBIT, and earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] - The target price for Prada has been lowered from HKD 53.8 to HKD 52, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - For Q4 of fiscal year 2025, sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, but report a decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion [1] Group 2 - Retail sales by brand are projected to remain flat for Prada (down 1% in Q3) and increase by 20% for Miu Miu (up 29% in Q3) [1] - EBIT for the second half of the year is expected to decrease by 3% to EUR 685 million, with EBIT margin narrowing by 100 basis points to 23.4% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has released a report indicating no significant changes to its revenue, EBIT, and earnings per share forecasts for Prada for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, while lowering the target price from HKD 53.8 to HKD 52 and maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Revenue Forecast - For Q4 of fiscal year 2025, sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, but report a decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion [1] - Retail sales by brand are projected to remain flat for Prada (down 1% in Q3) and increase by 20% for Miu Miu (up 29% in Q3) [1] EBIT and Profit Margin - EBIT for the second half of the year is anticipated to decrease by 3% to EUR 685 million [1] - EBIT margin is expected to narrow by 100 basis points year-on-year to 23.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has lowered the target price for Prada from HKD 53.8 to HKD 52, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Sales Forecast - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Prada's sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, but report a decline of 1% to EUR 1.59 billion [1] - Retail sales by brand are projected to remain flat for Prada year-on-year (down 1% in Q3), while Miu Miu is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year (compared to 29% growth in Q3) [1] EBIT and Profit Margin - EBIT for the second half is anticipated to decline by 3% year-on-year to EUR 685 million [1] - EBIT margin is expected to narrow by 100 basis points year-on-year to 23.4% [1]

记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 2025年末，北京三里屯太古里北区迎来一场高端零售变革。 12月11日，法国建筑大师克里斯蒂安·德·包赞巴克设计的迪奥之家在三里屯率先揭幕；紧挨着 迪奥的，是由知名建筑师青木淳操刀的路易威登之家，预计12月中下旬开业。而MVRDV与彼 得·马里诺联合打造的蒂芙尼旗舰店，据说今年12月初开始试营业，明年3月会正式开业。 市场销售趋势在第三季度得到了"显著改善"。 相比之下，开云集团虽仍录得5%的同比下滑，但较第二季度18%的跌幅已大幅收窄，开云新 任首席执行官卢卡·德梅奥欣慰地表示："开云集团还在山腰，但终于能看到上行的方向。" 这些财报共同指向一个共识：行业的至暗时刻或许正在过去，但复苏的根基尚不牢固，市场正 进入一个以品牌价值深度和运营韧性为核心的分化阶段。 这三大高奢品牌集中亮相于2025年末，被业内解读为奢侈品巨头在经历市场波动后，向中国市 场释放的一个强有力的信号。 "扎堆开业，既是市场回暖的信号，也是奢侈品牌对未来充满信心的表现。"要客研究院院长周 婷向21世纪经济报道表示，扎堆开业容易造就势能，更容易吸引眼球，让奢侈品牌获得更多流 量与客户，同时能增加客户停留时间，增加 ...

Core Insights - The opening of flagship stores by luxury brands such as Dior, Louis Vuitton, and Tiffany in Beijing's Sanlitun marks a significant shift in high-end retail, transforming stores into "mini-museums" and "experience centers" [1][2] - LVMH reported a recovery in growth in Q3, with a notable contribution from the Chinese market, while other brands like Hermès and Prada also showed stable performance, indicating a mixed recovery in the luxury sector [1] - The luxury market in China is predicted to see a slight overall decline this year, highlighting that growth is concentrated among top brands investing heavily in core locations to attract existing customers [1] Strategic Shifts - Dior has opened its first restaurant in China, led by a Michelin three-star chef, indicating a shift from mere retail to creating unique experiences, such as dining and art exhibitions [2] - Luxury brands are now competing to create immersive and shareable lifestyle experiences rather than just focusing on the number of stores, emphasizing the importance of brand ecosystems in high-traffic commercial areas like Sanlitun [2] - The recent wave of openings signals a deeper competition in the Chinese luxury market, where success will increasingly depend on storytelling and creating memorable experiences rather than just product sales [2]

Group 1 - Wang Jianlin's Wanda Group has made a rare "redemption" move by regaining control of a Wanda Plaza after selling over 80 plazas previously, indicating a strategic shift in management and ownership [3][5] - The management team of the company underwent a complete overhaul, with key positions being filled by new executives from Shanghai Wanda Ruichi Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., which is fully owned by Wanda [5] - Oriental Selection is expanding its offline presence by opening its first flagship store in Beijing, aiming to enhance its retail strategy after facing challenges in the past two years [5] Group 2 - Prada Group has completed the acquisition of Versace for €1.25 billion (approximately ¥102.78 billion), marking a significant consolidation in the luxury fashion sector [10] - TikTok plans to invest over 200 billion Brazilian Reais (approximately $377 million) to build a data center in Brazil, which will be its first project in Latin America [21] - JD.com has acquired approximately 59.8% of the shares in German retail giant CECONOMY, increasing its total stake to 85.2%, pending regulatory approval [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses optimism about Prada S.p.A. due to its strong brand portfolio, including Miu Miu and Versace, and its attractive valuation [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Prada S.p.A. is highlighted for its potential as a value investment, focusing on identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential [1]. - The company is noted for its diverse brand offerings, which contribute to its market strength and appeal [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The analysis reflects a broader trend in the luxury goods market, where brands like Prada are positioned to capitalize on consumer demand [1].