Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 82.62 HKD based on a 2025 PE of 25X [2][9]. Core Insights - Miu Miu's retail revenue grew by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. Overall revenue increased by 14.9% YoY to 5.43 billion Euros, while net profit rose by 25% YoY to 839 million Euros [2][9]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with net profit forecasts of 972 million Euros, 1.088 billion Euros, and 1.191 billion Euros for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 15.9%, 11.9%, and 9.5% respectively [2][9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (million Euros): 2023: 4726, 2024: 5432, 2025E: 6059, 2026E: 6646, 2027E: 7207 [2][6]. - Net Profit (million Euros): 2023: 671, 2024: 839, 2025E: 972, 2026E: 1088, 2027E: 1191 [2][6]. - Gross Margin (%): 2024: 79.84%, 2025E: 79.80%, 2026E: 79.90%, 2027E: 80.00% [2][6]. - Return on Equity (%): 2024: 19.07%, 2025E: 19.84%, 2026E: 19.93%, 2027E: 19.63% [2][6]. Retail Performance and Strategy - The retail network optimization is evident, with a slight decrease in the number of direct stores to 609, and a net opening of 3 stores. The company plans to continue retail investments and expand Miu Miu into new markets [2][9]. - Retail revenue growth in 2024 was notable across regions, with Asia-Pacific, Europe, Americas, Japan, and the Middle East showing growth rates of 13%, 18%, 9%, 46%, and 26% YoY respectively [2][9]. Management Changes - Miu Miu appointed Silvia Onofri as the new CEO, who has extensive experience in the luxury sector, previously holding positions at Bulgari and Bally [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in retail revenue for Miu Miu, which increased by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 14.9% to €5.432 billion, with a net profit increase of 25% to €839 million [5][6] - The company is expected to continue its positive trajectory with revenue forecasts of €6.059 billion in 2025, €6.646 billion in 2026, and €7.207 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 9.7%, and 8.4% respectively [5][6] - The report also notes the appointment of a new CEO for Miu Miu, which may influence future brand strategies and performance [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Key financial data and projections include: - Revenue (million euros): 2023: 4,726; 2024: 5,432; 2025E: 6,059; 2026E: 6,646; 2027E: 7,207 - Net profit (million euros): 2023: 671; 2024: 839; 2025E: 972; 2026E: 1,088; 2027E: 1,191 - EPS (euros): 2023: 0.26; 2024: 0.33; 2025E: 0.38; 2026E: 0.43; 2027E: 0.47 - Gross margin: 2024: 79.84%; 2025E: 79.80%; 2026E: 79.90%; 2027E: 80.00% [5][6][10] Market Performance - The report indicates that the company's retail performance is strong, with significant contributions from both direct retail and distribution channels. The direct retail network is being optimized, with a focus on expanding Miu Miu's presence in untapped markets [6][10] - The geographical breakdown of retail revenue growth for 2024 shows: - Asia Pacific: +13% - Europe: +18% - Americas: +9% - Japan: +46% - Middle East: +26% [6] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a high EBIT margin, with projections for net profit growth of 15.9% in 2025, 11.9% in 2026, and 9.5% in 2027. The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23-25X for 2025, translating to a fair value range of HKD 76.01-82.62 [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie report indicates that Prada's retail sales in Q4 last year increased by 18% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, primarily driven by Miu Miu brand sales growth of 84% and Prada brand sales growth rising from 1.7% in Q3 to 4% in Q4 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Miu Miu brand sales grew by 84% year-on-year [1] - Prada brand sales growth improved from 1.7% in Q3 to 4% in Q4 [1] - Retail sales in Japan, Europe, and Asia-Pacific markets continued to grow, while the Chinese market shifted from low single-digit decline in Q3 to low single-digit growth [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Operating profit margin increased to 24.4% [1] - Capital expenditure for the year is set to increase to €550 million [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is satisfied with the performance in the first two months of the current fiscal year and is confident in outperforming peers [1] - The company is considering strategic acquisitions but did not mention acquiring Versace [1] Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Macquarie raised Prada's net profit forecasts for the next two years and increased the target price to HK$88, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Financial Performance - Prada Group recorded a net revenue of €5,431.6 million, representing a 17.0% increase compared to 2023 at constant exchange rates[3]. - The group's net income was €838.9 million, a 25.0% increase compared to 2023[3]. - EBIT was €1,279.6 million, accounting for 23.6% of net revenue, an increase of 20.5% from €1,061.7 million (22.5% of net revenue) in 2023[3]. - The total sales net revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, was €5,310,026 thousand, a 14.9% increase from €4,622,882 thousand in the previous year[20]. - Net income for the year was €843,400 thousand, reflecting a 25.2% increase from €673,392 thousand in the prior year[20]. - The gross profit margin decreased slightly to 79.8% from 80.4%, with gross profit amounting to €4,336,692 thousand, up 14.1% year-over-year[20]. - The adjusted EBIT for the year was €1,279,550 thousand, which is 23.6% of net revenue, up from €1,061,692 thousand or 22.5% in 2023[27]. - The total comprehensive income for the year was €884,231 thousand, up from €648,094 thousand in 2023[25]. - The net revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, was €838,907,132, an increase from €671,026,021 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 25%[32]. Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales net revenue increased by 18.0% at constant exchange rates compared to 2023[3]. - Retail sales net revenue for the Prada and Miu Miu brands increased by 4.2% and 93.2% respectively at constant exchange rates[3]. - Significant double-digit growth in retail sales net revenue was observed in Japan (+45.8%), the Middle East (+26.0%), Europe (+17.5%), and the Asia-Pacific region (+13.1%); the Americas recorded a high single-digit growth of +8.9%[3]. - Retail sales net revenue in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 13.1%, with significant improvement in the fourth quarter despite a challenging market[69]. - Retail sales net revenue in Europe rose by 17.5%, supported by local customer and tourist demand[70]. - Retail sales net revenue in the Americas increased by 8.9%, achieving double-digit growth in the second half of the year[71]. - Miu Miu recorded exceptional growth of 93.2% year-on-year, with strong performance across regions and product categories[68]. Store Operations - The group operates 609 directly managed stores globally as of December 31, 2024[4]. - The group opened 38 new stores and closed 35, resulting in a total of 609 directly operated stores by year-end[14]. - The total number of stores as of December 31, 2024, was 609, slightly up from 606 in 2023, with a notable increase in the Asia-Pacific region[30]. - The company reported a total of 215 directly operated stores in the Asia-Pacific region as of December 31, 2024, compared to 196 in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 9.7%[30]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2024, the net financial position was positive at €599.6 million[3]. - The group's cash position at year-end was €600 million, after capital expenditures of €460 million[13]. - Cash flow from operating activities amounted to €1,998,769 thousand, an increase from €1,694,951 thousand in the previous year[24]. - The net cash flow from operating activities after interest and taxes was €1,651,617 thousand, compared to €1,155,281 thousand in 2023[24]. - The net financial position as of December 31, 2024, was €599.6 million, a significant improvement from €196.9 million in 2023[82][83]. - Cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to €1,011,563 thousand in 2024, compared to €689,519 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of 46.8%[21]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures for the year reached €493.3 million, with non-current assets (net value) increasing to €3,260.5 million from €3,007 million in 2023[79]. - Capital expenditures for the period included €415,577 thousand for new acquisitions, with significant investments in retail property renovations and store resets[41]. - The company signed a new €800 million sustainable-linked revolving credit facility on April 17, 2024, to replace an existing €400 million facility[84]. Dividends - The proposed dividend is €0.164 per share[3]. - The board proposed a final dividend of €419,647,136 for the year ending December 31, 2024, translating to €0.164 per share, compared to €350,558,888 or €0.137 per share in 2023[33]. - The company paid dividends of €350,559 thousand to shareholders, an increase from €281,471 thousand in the previous year[24]. - The record date for the proposed final dividend is April 28, 2025[102]. - The dividend payment date is set for May 19, 2025[102]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to €8,549,959 thousand in 2024, up from €7,615,051 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of 12.3%[21]. - Total liabilities increased to €4,130,529 thousand in 2024, compared to €3,738,242 thousand in 2023, which is an increase of 10.5%[21]. - Current liabilities rose to €1,683,452 thousand in 2024, compared to €1,450,381 thousand in 2023, representing an increase of 16.1%[21]. - The company's equity attributable to owners increased to €4,399,365 thousand in 2024, up from €3,853,795 thousand in 2023, a growth of 14.2%[22]. - Non-current assets totaled €5,990,551 thousand in 2024, up from €5,452,303 thousand in 2023, indicating an increase of 9.8%[21]. - The company's inventory increased to €866,160,000 in 2024 from €782,978,000 in 2023, a rise of about 10.6%, primarily to support sales growth[37]. Impairment and Provisions - The company reported a net impairment loss of €8.6 million on cash-generating units' right-of-use assets as of December 31, 2024[58]. - Other provisions as of December 31, 2024, amounted to €62.2 million, primarily related to contractual obligations to restore leased commercial properties[65]. - The provision for obsolete and slow-moving inventory increased by €18,500,000 in 2024, totaling €128,822,000[37]. - The impairment loss recognized for property, plant, and equipment totaled €16 million for the year, with €3.2 million specifically attributed to identified impairment signs[45]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its digital transformation plan to enhance technical capabilities across various activities[15]. - The company remains committed to achieving robust, sustainable growth above market levels despite complex industry conditions[89].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Prada, projecting a target price of 81.87 HKD based on a 25X P/E valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the revitalization of the brand and anticipates growth in performance, driven by strategic adjustments and strong brand management [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1913 in Milan, Prada has undergone significant transformations, including a strategic shift since 2016 that has led to a 113% increase in market value from 2018 to 2024 [3][12]. - The company operates three main brands: Prada, MIU MIU, and Church's, with a focus on leather goods and fashion [12][21]. Industry Position - Prada ranks 8th in revenue among major luxury brands, with a revenue of 4.726 billion euros in 2023, and has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in revenue and 27.3% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [18][21]. - The company's P/E ratio is positioned at 21.5x in 2023, which is lower compared to peers like Hermès and LVMH, indicating potential for valuation improvement [18][19]. Operational Review - The company has successfully implemented a comprehensive strategic transformation since 2016, including streamlining direct stores and enhancing e-commerce channels, resulting in a recovery in revenue and profitability [28][36]. - The introduction of Raf Simons as co-creative director in 2020 has revitalized the Prada brand, leading to increased brand visibility and sales performance [40][41]. Brand Performance - MIU MIU has evolved into a strong independent brand, with significant growth in brand heat and market presence, particularly among younger demographics [40][52]. - The report notes that both Prada and MIU MIU have seen substantial increases in online engagement and brand ranking, indicating a successful repositioning in the luxury market [47][48]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for Prada are expected to reach 5.444 billion euros in 2024, with net profits forecasted at 824 million euros, reflecting a growth trajectory in the luxury sector [3][36]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of luxury goods, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, suggesting continued demand despite macroeconomic challenges [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth, with Miu Miu's revenue increasing by 105% year-on-year in FY24Q3, while Prada's revenue grew by 2% [1]. - Retail revenue by region indicates a 12% increase in the Asia-Pacific region, an 18% increase in Europe, and a 10% increase in the Americas [1]. - The report highlights the successful initiatives of Miu Miu, including special projects and collaborations that have enhanced brand visibility and cultural discussions [1]. - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 expected to be €5.5 billion, €6.3 billion, and €7.3 billion respectively, compared to previous estimates of €5.11 billion, €5.53 billion, and €6.0 billion [1]. - Net profits are projected to be €820 million, €950 million, and €1.09 billion for the same period, up from previous estimates of €750 million, €850 million, and €930 million [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be €0.32, €0.37, and €0.42, revised from €0.29, €0.33, and €0.36 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 21, 18, and 16 times for the respective years [1]. Financial Data Summary - The total share capital of the company is 2,558.82 million shares [4]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 148.92 billion HKD [4]. - The net asset value per share is 12.86 HKD [4]. - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 49.13% [4]. - The stock has traded between a high of 66.80 HKD and a low of 40.00 HKD over the past year [4].

Revenue Growth - Prada Group reported a net revenue of €3,829 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, representing an 18% increase at constant exchange rates compared to the same period in 2023[1]. - Retail sales net revenue increased by 18.3% year-over-year, accounting for 89.4% of total net revenue, consistent with the previous year's level[4]. - Miu Miu's retail sales net revenue surged by 97.3% year-over-year, with a strong performance of 105.4% in the third quarter[5]. - Wholesale sales net revenue increased by 8.6% year-over-year, driven by the duty-free channel and independent wholesale development[4]. - Licensing revenue grew by 23.7% year-over-year, primarily due to contributions from eyewear and fragrances[4]. Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific region recorded a retail sales net revenue growth of 12.0%, maintaining a consistent trend in the third quarter despite challenging market conditions[6]. - Japan experienced significant retail sales net revenue growth of 52.6%, supported by robust local consumption and strong tourist traffic[7]. - Retail sales net revenue in Europe increased by 18.1%, supported by local customer and tourist spending[7]. - The Middle East recorded a solid retail sales net revenue growth of 24.1%, with acceleration in the third quarter[7]. Store Operations - The company opened 21 new stores and closed 26, resulting in a total of 601 operational stores as of September 30, 2024[4].

Financial Performance - Prada Group reported a revenue increase of 15% for the first half of 2024, reaching €1.5 billion compared to €1.3 billion in the same period last year[11]. - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2024 was €300 million, reflecting a 20% increase from €250 million in the previous year[11]. - Prada Group expects a revenue growth of 12% for the full year 2024, projecting total revenues to reach approximately €3.2 billion[11]. - The company's net revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was €2,548,634, representing a 14.2% increase from €2,232,379 in the same period of 2023[13]. - The net income attributable to the group increased to €383,499, reflecting a 25.7% growth compared to €305,168 in the prior year[15]. - Total net revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was €2,548.6 million, a 14.2% increase compared to €2,232.4 million for the same period in 2023[24]. - The company reported a significant reduction in net financial expenses, decreasing by 77.1% to €4,410 from €19,292[12]. - The company reported a free cash flow of €396.1 million for the first half of 2024, a substantial increase from €32.8 million in the same period last year[36]. - The company’s net revenue reached €1,924.9 million, representing a 75.5% share of total revenue, while Miu Miu's net revenue was €595.4 million, accounting for 23.4%[24]. Sales and Market Expansion - User data indicated a 10% growth in active customers, with a total of 2 million new customers acquired during the period[11]. - Retail sales for the Prada brand grew by 5.5%, while Miu Miu's retail sales surged by 92.7% during the same period[15]. - The company plans to expand its market presence in Asia, targeting a 25% increase in retail locations by the end of 2025[11]. - The Asia-Pacific region contributed €774,435 thousand to retail sales net amount, representing 34.2% of total sales[108]. - Retail sales net revenue in Japan increased by 55%, making it the best-performing region for the first half of the year[26]. - The Americas recorded a retail sales net revenue increase of 7%, showing slight improvement in the second quarter[26]. Operational Efficiency and Investments - The company is investing €100 million in new product development and technology enhancements to improve customer experience and operational efficiency[11]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was €580,484, significantly higher than €181,753 in the first half of 2023[13]. - The total operating expenses amounted to €1,458,842, which is a 12.0% increase from €1,301,976 in the previous year[12]. - The company invested €168.7 million in capital expenditures during the period, focusing on store remodeling and technology enhancements[32]. - The company continues to strengthen its climate strategy by gradually switching to lower-impact raw materials and focusing on sustainability goals[20]. Sustainability Initiatives - Prada Group has launched a new sustainable product line, aiming for 30% of total sales to come from sustainable products by 2025[11]. - The company is committed to sustainable development, focusing on greenhouse gas reduction and the use of low-impact materials in products and packaging[49]. - The company has established a clear roadmap for its sustainability strategy, emphasizing the importance of traceability of raw materials and continuous improvement of social and environmental standards along the supply chain[49]. - The SEA BEYOND educational initiative engaged nearly 35,000 students from 56 countries, highlighting the company's commitment to cultural and marine conservation[20]. Financial Position and Liquidity - The balance sheet remains strong with net cash of €265 million as of June 30, 2024[15]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at €661.3 million as of June 30, 2024, slightly down from €689.5 million at the end of 2023[34]. - The net financial position as of June 30, 2024, was positive at €265.4 million[30]. - The total undrawn credit facilities amounted to €1,252 million as of June 30, 2024, an increase from €768 million as of December 31, 2023[37]. - The company believes that the current available funds and credit lines, along with cash generated from operations and financing activities, are sufficient to meet its working capital, investment activities, loan repayments, and planned dividend payments[53]. Corporate Governance - The company is committed to maintaining the highest standards of corporate governance to create long-term sustainable value for stakeholders[66]. - The board of directors consists of 11 members, including 6 executive directors and 5 independent non-executive directors[68]. - The audit and risk committee held three meetings during the review period with an attendance rate of 77.78%[70]. - The company has established a Supervisory Body to ensure compliance with the Italian Legislative Decree No. 231/2001, with a three-year term for its members[76]. - The company will continue to review and assess its governance practices to ensure compliance with the latest developments[67]. Risk Management - The company faces liquidity risk, which is managed by the board and the finance director, ensuring that financial resources are optimized[53]. - Credit risk is primarily associated with trade receivables from wholesale channels and other business partners, managed through monitoring customer creditworthiness and using insurance contracts[50]. - The company has identified and is addressing various operational risks, including geopolitical tensions, network attacks, and extreme weather events, to mitigate potential economic and reputational losses[49]. - Foreign exchange risk is hedged through derivative contracts to stabilize the value of future cash flows in euros or other functional currencies[53]. - Interest rate risk is managed by using derivatives to convert floating-rate debt into fixed-rate debt or debt with interest rates within a specific range[53]. Financial Reporting and Compliance - The company’s financial reporting adheres to International Financial Reporting Standards, ensuring compliance and transparency in financial disclosures[103]. - The company has implemented a tax risk management system to monitor and mitigate potential tax compliance risks[55]. - The company discussed the establishment of a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Executive Committee during the Sustainability Committee meetings[73]. - The company has ongoing discussions with the Italian tax authorities regarding tax disputes, with potential tax liabilities for 2016 and 2017 estimated at approximately €10.8 million and €9.8 million respectively[184].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 57.65 HKD [7][5]. Core Insights - Miu Miu has shown strong growth with a retail sales increase of 92.7% year-on-year, supported by successful fashion shows and impactful marketing campaigns [2]. - Prada has achieved high-quality development with a retail sales growth of 5.5%, benefiting from a balanced product mix and strong performance in challenging markets [3]. - The company has accelerated its retail upgrades and strengthened its supply chain, completing 36 renovation projects and expanding its digital capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.55 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and a net profit of 380 million euros, up 25.7% [1]. - Retail sales net revenue increased by 18.2%, while wholesale sales grew by 7.8%, driven by the duty-free channel [1]. - The company expects full-year revenues for 2024-2026 to be 5.11 billion euros, 5.53 billion euros, and 6.00 billion euros respectively, with net profits projected at 750 million euros, 850 million euros, and 930 million euros [5]. Regional Performance - Retail sales in Japan, the Middle East, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Americas grew by 55%, 20%, 18%, 12%, and 7% respectively [1]. - Japan has emerged as the best-performing region, benefiting from robust demand and strong tourist flows [1]. Strategic Developments - The company has committed to enhancing customer experience through digital upgrades and supply chain improvements, with capital expenditures of 0.15 million euros and 0.32 million euros for industrial and IT projects respectively [4]. - The expansion of a key knitwear production facility is expected to create 214 new jobs [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Prada is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price reflecting an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - Prada reported a revenue of €2.55 billion for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with net profit rising by 25.7% to €380 million [1]. - Miu Miu's retail sales surged by 92.7% year-on-year, showcasing strong growth across all regions and product categories [2]. - The company is focusing on digital development and supply chain enhancements, with capital expenditures of €0.15 million and €0.32 million for industrial and IT projects, respectively [4]. - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised, with expected revenues of €5.11 billion, €5.53 billion, and €6.00 billion, and net profits of €750 million, €850 million, and €930 million for the respective years [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Prada's retail sales increased by 5.5%, driven by full-price sales and volume growth, with all product categories and menswear achieving growth [3]. - Retail sales net revenue grew by 18.2% in the retail channel and 7.8% in the wholesale channel, supported by duty-free stores [1]. Regional Performance - Retail sales in Japan, the Middle East, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Americas grew by 55%, 20%, 18%, 12%, and 7% respectively [1]. - Japan emerged as the best-performing region, benefiting from robust demand and strong tourist flows [1]. Brand Development - Miu Miu's brand strength continues to rise, supported by successful fashion shows and impactful marketing campaigns [2]. - Prada maintains a balanced product mix, with new and classic items supporting leather goods, while creative initiatives drive the growth of ready-to-wear and footwear [3]. Retail and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company completed 36 renovation and reset projects in the first half of 2024, demonstrating its commitment to enhancing customer experience [4]. - As of June 30, 2024, Prada operated 593 directly managed stores after opening 9 and closing 22 [4].