研究员：王玮嘉/黄波/李雅琳/胡知 零售气量体现业务经营稳健，预计2025 年毛利同比增长4%公司1H25 实现零售气量129.53 亿方 （yoy+1.9%），增速好于全国天然气表观消费量增速（yoy-0.9%），公司天然气业务经营稳健。其中 工商业气量97.9 亿方（yoy+2.4%），得益于工业新开口气量和存量需求挖潜；居民气量30.4 亿方 （yoy+1%）。公司1H25 新增居民接驳69.2 万户（yoy-10.7%），新增工商业开口气量628.6 万方/日 机构：华泰证券 （yoy-13.4%），受地产下行及暖冬延迟复工影响。我们预计2025 年零售气毛利yoy+4%。 泛能效率提升对冲销量放缓，智家渗透率与客单价同比增长公司1H25 泛能销售量达到197.6 亿千瓦时 （yoy+0.1%），其中已投运项目数量达到374 个、较2024 年末增加18 个。效率提升对冲能源价格下 降，我们预计2025 年泛能毛利yoy+3%。公司1H25 智家服务累计渗透率达到10.4%（yoy+1.6pp），综 合客单价达到649 元/户。公司聚焦高消费力区域，我们预计2025 年智家毛利yoy+5%。 新奥能源 ...

Group 1 - The core profit of the company slightly decreased by 1% year-on-year to 3.2 billion RMB, in line with market expectations [1] - Retail gas sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with commercial and residential gas sales growing by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively, while the retail gas gross margin remained stable at 10.2% [1] - The total installed capacity and operational capacity of the company's diversified energy business reached 15 GW and 13.9 GW, representing year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 8.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - The company expects a slight recovery in heating demand in the second half of 2025, predicting a 2.2% year-on-year increase in retail gas volume for the entire year [2] - The gross margin for the retail gas segment is anticipated to be around 10%, with new residential connections expected to decline by 8% to 1.49 million households [2] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.1% and 1.8% respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a decline in net profit, primarily due to decreased overseas LNG sales profits, while domestic business showed steady growth [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 55.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.43 billion yuan, down 5.6% [1] - Core profit for H1 2025 was 3.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] - The company maintained a dividend of 0.65 HKD per share, unchanged from the previous year, with a core profit payout ratio of 21% [1] Business Segments - Domestic business showed steady growth with core profit of 3.10 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year, while overseas LNG sales profit fell to 120 million yuan, down 33.8% [1] - Natural gas retail segment reported a gross profit of 3.092 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, with gas volume increasing by 1.9% to 12.95 billion cubic meters [1] - Connection business gross profit was 820 million yuan, down 0.5%, with new residential connections decreasing by 10.7% to 692,000 households [1] - The energy business reported a gross profit of 1.09 billion yuan, up 2.1%, with installed capacity increasing by 8.5% to 13.9 GW [1] - Smart home business gross profit was 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%, with the average customer price rising to 649 yuan per household [1] Privatization and Valuation - The privatization of the company is progressing smoothly, with a transaction price of 59.924 billion HKD, corresponding to a 12x PE ratio based on 2024 core profit [1] - The implied price per share is 80 HKD, indicating a 27% upside from the closing price on the valuation date [1] - The major asset restructuring has been filed with the National Development and Reform Commission [1] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 7.09 billion, 7.42 billion, and 7.80 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, 4.6%, and 5.2% respectively [1] - The current PE ratios are 9.2, 8.8, and 8.4 times for the respective years [1] - The privatization pricing reflects a revaluation opportunity, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has lowered the target price for XinAo Energy (02688) to HKD 63, citing a weak outlook for the second half of the year [1] Financial Performance - XinAo Energy's core profit for the first half of the year decreased by 1% year-on-year, while core profit from domestic operations saw a slight increase of 1% [1] - Retail natural gas sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in the second quarter to 4.1%, compared to just 0.3% in the first quarter [1] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has adjusted its core profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 downwards by 3% to 8% due to declining profits from natural gas sales and Integrated Energy (IE) business [1] - The target price was revised from HKD 65 to HKD 63 [1] Market Outlook - The overall outlook for XinAo Energy in the second half of the year is expected to be weak, influenced by macroeconomic challenges and structural changes in the economy [1] - Retail natural gas sales growth is anticipated to be moderate, supported mainly by large commercial and industrial customers [1] - Profit growth from the Integrated Energy segment may slow down due to reduced heat supply installation work and weak demand from industrial clients [1]

该行预期新奥能源下半年整体前景较疲软。该行表示，由于宏观挑战和经济结构的转变，今年公司的零 售天然气销量增长可能较为温和，预计将继续透过大型商业和工业客户支持销量。同时，综合能源(IE) 利润增长或因热供应安装工作减少和工业客户需求疲弱而放缓。 建银国际发布研报称，新奥能源(02688)上半年核心利润同比下滑1%，而来自国内业务的核心利润微增 1%。零售天然气销量同比升1.9%，意味着第二季的销量增长加快至4.1%，而第一季仅为0.3%。该行考 虑到天然气销售和IE业务的利润下降后，将公司2025至27年的核心盈利预测下调3至8%，目标价由65港 元下调至63港元。该行认为，当前股价已反映如果公司成功获私有化的预期，维持"中性"评级。 ...

執行人員接獲依據香港《公司收購及合併守則》規則 22 作出以下的證券交易的披露： | 交易方 | 日期 | 有關證券的說明 | 產品說明 | 交易性質 | 與衍生工具有 | 到期日或清結日 | 參考價 | 已支付／已收取的 | 交易後數額（包括 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 關的參照證券 | | | 總金額 | 與其訂有協議或 | | | | | | | 數目 | | | | 達成諒解的任何 | | | | | | | | | | | 人士的證券） | | BlackRock, | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 清結衍生工具合約 | 7,300 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | $62.9199 | $58,862.0800 | 3,634,500 | | Inc. | | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 清結衍生工具合約 | 21,900 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | $62.9555 | $176,659.0300 | 3,612, ...

UBS AG 是與受要約公司有關連的獲豁免自營買賣商。 交易是為本身帳戶進行的。 執行人員接獲依據香港《公司收購及合併守則》規則 22 作出以下的證券交易的披露： | 交易方 | 日期 | | | 有關證券的說 | 交易性質 | | 買入／賣出 | 涉及的股份 | 已支付／已收取 | 已支付或已收 | 已支付或已收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 明 | | | | 總數 | 的總金額 | 取的最高價 | 取的最低價 | | | | | | | | | | | | （H） | （L） | | UBS AG | 2025 | 8 年 | 28 月 日 | 普通股 | 因全屬客戶主動發出且由客戶需求帶動的買賣盤所 | 買入 | | 8,100 | $509,454.9999 | $62.8957 | $62.8957 | | | | | | | 產生的 Delta 1 產品的對沖活動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 普通股 | 因全屬客戶主動發出且由客戶需求帶 ...

交易披露 2025 年 8 月 29 日 透過協議安排進行私有化 就新奧能源控股有限公司的股份的交易披露 執行人員接獲依據香港《公司收購及合併守則》規則 22 作出以下的證券交易的披露： | 交易方 | 日期 | | | | 有關證券的說 | 產品說明 | 交易性質 | | 與衍生工具 | 到期日或清結日 | 參考價 | 已支付／已收 | 交易後數額（包括 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 明 | | | | 有關的參照 | | | 取的總金額 | 與其訂有協議或 | | | | | | | | | | | 證券數目 | | | | 達成諒解的任何 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 人士的證券） | | Morgan | 2025 | 年 | 8 月 | 28 日 | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 客戶主動利便客戶 | ─ | 8,400 | 2026 年 1 月 30 日 | $62.7500 | $527,100. ...

2025 年 8 月 29 日 透過協議安排進行私有化 就新奧天然氣股份有限公司的股份的交易披露 執行人員接獲依據香港《公司收購及合併守則》規則 22 作出以下的證券交易的披露： 完 註： 中國國際金融股份有限公司是與要約人有關連的獲豁免自營買賣商。 交易是為本身帳戶進行的。 這些是有關新奧天然氣股份有限公司 A 股進行的交易。交易以人民幣進行。 交易披露 | 交易方 | 日期 | 有關證券的說 | 交易性質 | | 買入／賣出 | 涉及的股份 | 已支付／已收 | 已支付或已 | 已支付或已 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 明 | | | | 總數 | 取的總金額 | 收取的最高 | 收取的最低 | | | | | | | | | | 價（H） | 價（L） | | 中國國際金 | 2025年8月28 | 普通股 | 建立新的追蹤指數 | ETF，當中相關證券佔已發行 | 買入 | 9,500 | $177,939.0000 | $18.9700 | $18.6100 | | 融股份有限 | 日 | ...

交易披露 | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 客戶主動利便客戶 | ─ | 168,900 | 2025 年 9 月 3 日 | $18.7220 | $3,162,140.9019 | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 買入 | | | | | | | | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 客戶主動利便客戶 | ─ | 5,700 | 2026 年 1 月 29 | $18.6802 | $106,476.9975 | 0 | | | | 買入 | | | 日 | | | | | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 客戶主動利便客戶 | ─ | 14,300 | 2026 年 1 月 29 | $18.7116 | $267,575.8943 | 0 | | | | 買入 | | | 日 | | | | | 衍生工具 | 其他類別產品 | 客戶主動利便客戶 | ─ | 22,700 | 2028 年 7 月 24 | $18.6939 | $424,351.0000 | 0 | | | | 買入 | | | 日 | ...