Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have seen significant gains, with notable increases in companies like Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and Chenming Paper, driven by recent price adjustments and production strategies in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) increased by 9.62%, trading at HKD 6.84 [1] - Lee & Man Paper (02314) rose by 5.88%, trading at HKD 3.06 [1] - Chenming Paper (010812) saw a 1.28% increase, trading at HKD 0.79 [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Nine Dragons Paper announced a price increase of RMB 50 per ton for all kraft and corrugated paper at its Quanzhou base starting January 5, 2026 [1] - The Dongguan base of Nine Dragons Paper will raise the price of recycled kraft paper by RMB/HKD 50 per ton (USD 7 per ton) starting January 4, 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Several large paper companies have indicated plans to proactively reduce production or slow down expansion, alleviating pressure from new capacity in the industry [1] - According to CICC's report, the paper industry is characterized by a "highly concentrated resource end and a dispersed processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource that holds strong pricing power [1] - Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is no longer sustainable, shifting the strategic focus to utilizing proprietary fibers to hedge against price volatility in pulp [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have seen significant gains, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper (玖龙纸业) and Lee & Man Paper (理文造纸) experiencing notable increases in their stock prices due to recent price adjustments and production strategies in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose by 9.62%, reaching HKD 6.84 [1] - Lee & Man Paper (02314) increased by 5.88%, reaching HKD 3.06 [1] - Chenming Paper (晨鸣纸业) saw a rise of 1.28%, reaching HKD 0.79 [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Nine Dragons Paper announced a price increase of RMB 50 per ton for all kraft and corrugated paper at its Quanzhou base starting January 5, 2026 [1] - The Dongguan base of Nine Dragons Paper will also raise the price of recycled kraft paper by RMB/HKD 50 per ton (USD 7 per ton) starting January 4, 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Several large paper companies have indicated plans to proactively reduce production or slow down expansion, alleviating pressure from new capacity in the industry [1] - According to CICC's report, the paper industry is characterized by a "highly concentrated resource end and a dispersed processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource that holds strong pricing power [1] - Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is no longer sustainable, shifting the strategic focus to utilizing proprietary fibers to hedge against the volatility of pulp prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry chain is currently characterized by "high concentration at the resource end and decentralized competition at the processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource that holds strong pricing power [2][3] Industry Characteristics - After the paper bull market in 2021, profit distribution has tilted towards the pulp end, while the paper production capacity clearance shows a "long tail effect" [2] - The industry is experiencing a slow clearance speed due to high single-ton investment costs and significant depreciation pressure, leading to a reliance on effective cost transmission for profitability stability [2] Strategic Shift - The strategic paradigm has shifted from capacity expansion to industry chain integration, with companies now focusing on using their own fiber to hedge against the volatility of pulp prices [3] - This integration essentially transforms unstable processing profits into stable resource premiums, allowing leading companies to transition from "global resource movers" to "value integrators" [3] Market Outlook - A short-term supply gap for wood chips is expected to emerge by 2026, as the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production [4] - As demand marginally improves, the price center for pulp is anticipated to recover in 2026, with leading companies possessing full industry chain self-sufficiency continuing to capitalize on the premium opportunities from "manufacturing" to "resource revaluation" [4] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Sun Paper (002078.SZ), Nine Dragons Paper (02689), and Suzano (SUZ.US) [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the stock prices of paper companies in Hong Kong, with notable rises for companies such as He Feng Group (up over 7%) and Nine Dragons Paper (up 5.5%) [1][2] - Several paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper, Wuzhou Special Paper, and Shanying Paper, have announced price adjustments, with Nine Dragons Paper's Quanzhou base increasing prices for all kraft and corrugated paper by RMB 50 per ton starting January 5, 2026 [1] - Nine Dragons Paper's Dongguan base will also raise the price of recycled kraft paper by RMB/HKD 50 per ton (USD 7 per ton) effective January 4, 2026 [1] - Major paper companies have indicated plans to proactively reduce production or slow down expansion, which significantly alleviates the pressure from new production capacity in the industry [1] - Although cultural paper is entering a traditional peak season with some orders being released before New Year and Spring Festival, the strength of demand recovery still requires further validation [1]

生意社01月04日讯玖龙纸业重庆基地：自2026年1月10日起，灰底白板纸价格上调50元/吨；自2026年1 月20日起，灰底白板纸价格上调50元/吨。自2026年1月15日起，瓦楞纸价格上调50元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 白板纸，多空评分：2 玖龙纸业宣布灰底白板纸价格分两次上调共100元/吨，表明行业龙头主动提价，反映需求强劲或成本压 力上升，对现货价格构成重大利好，可能带动市场整体涨价预期。 瓦楞纸价格上调50元/吨，显示供需关系改善，企业提价行为对现货价格有一般利好影响，但幅度相对 较小，需关注后续市场接受度。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 白板纸，多空评分：2 玖龙纸业宣布灰底白板纸价格分两次上调共100元/吨，表明行业龙头主动提价，反映需求强劲或成本压 力上升，对现货价格构成重大利好，可能带动市场整体涨价预期。 瓦楞纸，多空评分：1 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、 ...

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02689 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | 第 1 頁 共 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the paper pulp market showed a pattern of "increasing foreign supply, decreasing domestic supply, strong broadleaf, and weak softwood." The supply increment will significantly narrow in 2026, with global commodity pulp slightly increasing and China's imports expected to remain flat. The demand for cultural paper will decline further, while that for tissue paper and white cardboard will perform well. The cost of domestic broadleaf pulp will rise, and the price will range from 4,000 to 4,600 yuan, showing a "high in the front, low in the back, strong broadleaf, and stable softwood" trend [5][75][76]. - The supply - demand situation of offset paper in 2025 was "increasing quantity but not profit." In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, but the output is expected to continue to decline, the utilization rate will drop below 50%, and the market competition will intensify. The apparent consumption may decline further, and the cost will be pushed up by high - price pulp. The old production lines will be forced to exit [5][78][80]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Paper Pulp Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - From January to early February, the prices of paper pulp futures and spot rose synchronously, driven by factors such as continuous price support from the external market, "hoarding and price support" by traders after the festival, and the boost from the futures market sentiment [10]. - From mid - February to April, the price of paper pulp entered a downward channel, mainly due to the less - than - expected recovery of downstream demand, high port inventory, and the price inversion between the external market and domestic spot [11]. - From May to the end of July, the paper pulp market fluctuated widely, with the core contradiction being the game between short - term benefits and long - term weak reality [11][13][14]. - From August to mid - October, the paper pulp market showed a significant differentiation pattern of "weak softwood and stable broadleaf," which was caused by the difference in supply - demand structure [15]. - From late October to the end of December, the market differentiation further intensified, showing a pattern of "weak softwood and strong broadleaf," and the price gradually stabilized in shock at the end of the year [16]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply: High Imports, Increased Domestic Production, and Overall High Inventory - **Global Import Situation Analysis**: In 2025, the total import of wood pulp increased, with a significant increase in broadleaf pulp and a moderate increase in softwood pulp. The import price fluctuated downward. In 2026, the import volume will decline slightly year - on - year, and the proportion of broadleaf pulp is expected to continue to increase [30][33][35]. - **Domestic Capacity Change Analysis**: In 2025, the actual domestic pulp production capacity reached 425 tons, with a profit ranking of "chemi - thermomechanical pulp > broadleaf pulp > softwood pulp." In 2026, the planned production capacity is 345 tons, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter, with broadleaf pulp as the core incremental source. The cash cost will become the bottom line of the spot price [37][38][40]. - **Domestic Inventory Change Analysis**: As of December 2025, the domestic paper pulp inventory showed a differentiated situation of "de - stocking in ports and passive inventory accumulation upstream." In the first quarter of 2026, the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, but the overall inventory center is expected to be lower than that in the same period of 2024 [43]. - **Summary of Core Features of the Supply Pattern**: The overall supply will remain loose, the structural differentiation will intensify, and the inventory pressure will still exist [44][45][46]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand: Weak Cultural Paper, Improved Packaging and Tissue Paper - **White Cardboard**: In 2025, the production and sales of white cardboard increased, and the export was outstanding. In 2026, the demand for paper pulp is expected to increase steadily [50][51]. - **Cultural Paper**: In 2025, the demand for cultural paper was weak, dragging down the consumption of paper pulp. In 2026, it will still be in a weak recovery state, and it is difficult to significantly improve [51][52]. - **Tissue Paper**: In 2025, the demand for paper pulp in the tissue paper industry increased rapidly. In 2026, it will continue to grow steadily, becoming a key force to offset the decline in cultural paper demand [52][53]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - **Spot Price Market**: The price of offset paper fluctuated downward throughout 2025, and stabilized at a low level at the end of the year. There was no obvious regional differentiation, and the market trading was light [54]. - **Futures Price Market**: The newly - listed cultural paper futures showed a weak trend of range - bound fluctuations, with low trading volume and volatility, and were affected by both capital sentiment and spot prices [55][58]. 5. Cultural Paper Supply Analysis - In 2025, the offset paper industry had a large increase in production capacity but a decline in demand, with low capacity utilization, high inventory, and poor profitability. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, but the output is expected to decline further, and the industry will still be in the "capacity - reduction" stage [60][62][63]. 6. Cultural Paper Demand Analysis - **Import and Export**: In 2025, the import of cultural paper continued to be sluggish, and the export showed a structural differentiation. The overall role of export in making up for domestic demand was limited [70]. - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, the demand for cultural paper was mainly supported by the publishing industry, but the support was weak, and the commercial printing demand was weak [71]. 7. Paper Pulp Fundamental Comprehensive Analysis - In 2025, the paper pulp supply - demand pattern was "increasing foreign supply, decreasing domestic supply, strong broadleaf, and weak softwood." In 2026, the supply increment will narrow, the demand structure will change, and the cost will rise [75][76]. 8. Paper Pulp Futures Strategy Analysis - Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the pressure of South American shipments in the second quarter and domestic production capacity release in the fourth quarter, and appropriately arrange short positions at high prices [77]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities under the impact of the near - month market [77]. - Options: Wait and see [77]. 9. Offset Paper Fundamental Comprehensive Analysis - In 2025, the offset paper industry had "increasing quantity but not profit." In 2026, the production capacity will increase, but the output is expected to decline, and the market competition will intensify [78][80]. 10. Offset Paper Strategy Analysis - Unilateral trading: The market is likely to fluctuate widely around the cost line of large - scale enterprises. Generally, the idea of shorting at high prices should be adopted [81]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Appropriate attention can be paid to the pulp - offset paper arbitrage of shorting papermaking profits [81]. - Options: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [81].

Group 1: Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, driven by external macroeconomic stabilization and internal demand adjustments, although the recovery will show differentiation among companies [5][6] - Investment strategies should focus on growth-oriented companies that are expanding overseas, as well as on the supply-side changes in the paper packaging sector and new consumer brands showing marginal improvements [5][6] Group 2: Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is currently facing a downturn, with ongoing pressures from consumption and housing handovers, and limited benefits from national subsidies [13][19] - The market environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a focus on individual company performance, as the sector is significantly influenced by consumer sentiment and real estate policies [34][40] - The expected decline in new housing completions in 2026 is projected at 21%, which will continue to impact demand for home furnishings [34][40] Group 3: Essential Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods market is adapting to new dynamics, with established brands facing challenges from evolving channels and increased competition [52] - The growth potential in mature markets remains stable, but the overall consumption environment has weakened, leading to increased competition among leading brands [52][53] - New consumption trends are emerging from changes in consumer sentiment and technological innovations, which are reshaping market dynamics [52][53] Group 4: Light Industry Exports - The light industry export sector has shown strong growth among leading companies, despite fluctuations due to economic cycles and inventory levels [5][6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued growth for top companies, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing trends such as capacity relocation and cost reduction [5][6] - The overall recovery in the light industry export sector is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on expanding product categories and niche markets [5][6] Group 5: Paper Packaging Sector - The paper packaging sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with stable pricing anticipated for cultural paper and improved profitability driven by demand from the consumer electronics and AI sectors [5][6] - The profitability of the paper industry is projected to stabilize, with key factors including supply-demand dynamics and cost efficiencies playing a crucial role [5][6] - Leading companies in the metal packaging sector are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and enhanced pricing power [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting high dividend safety margin assets and companies with strong growth potential [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high dividend safety margin assets in the packaging and home furnishing sectors, benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB and the expected decrease in paper procurement costs [2][4]. - It identifies key companies in the packaging sector such as Yongxin Co., Yutong Technology, Huawang Technology, and Meiyingsen, as well as home furnishing leaders like Kuka Home, Mousse, Oppein, and Sophia [2][4]. - The paper industry is expected to benefit from rising wood pulp prices and seasonal demand, with companies like Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and Bohui Paper being highlighted for their potential [2][4]. - The report also discusses the export sector, noting the impact of RMB appreciation and the importance of supply chain and brand expansion for companies like Jiangxin Home, Yongyi Co., Jiayi Co., and Zhongxin Co. [2][4]. Summary by Sections Packaging Sector - The packaging industry is characterized by a mature competitive landscape, with leading companies reducing capital expenditures and demonstrating advantages in overseas markets [5][6]. - Yongxin Co. is noted for its stable high dividend policy and strong performance in soft packaging and film business, with a dividend rate of 84% to 81% from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - Yutong Technology has expanded its global supply chain, enhancing its operational efficiency and increasing its dividend rate to 70% by 2025 [6]. - Huawang Technology is positioned well in the decorative paper market, with expectations of improved profitability due to limited new supply and rising demand [7]. - Meiyingsen is recognized for its strategic overseas expansion and high dividend yield, with a focus on emerging markets [8]. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with a positive outlook driven by supportive real estate policies and improving consumer confidence [9][10]. - Companies like Kuka Home and Sophia are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for home renovation and the implementation of "old-for-new" policies [10][23]. - The report highlights the importance of retail capabilities and supply chain improvements for companies to enhance their market share and profitability [23][24]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand and pricing, supported by strong control over production by overseas pulp mills [11][13]. - Companies such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are expected to benefit from the stabilization of pulp prices and improved supply-demand dynamics [11][13]. - The report notes that the industry has been at a low point for several years, but a mid-term recovery is expected as demand gradually increases [11][13]. Export Sector - The export sector is influenced by the global economic environment, with a focus on companies that are expanding their international presence and brand recognition [14][15]. - Jiangxin Home is noted for its innovative product offerings and strong growth in customer numbers, while Yongyi Co. is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for ergonomic chairs [15][16]. - Jiayi Co. is recognized for its strategic expansion in the insulated cup market, while Zhongxin Co. is highlighted for its growth potential in the pulp molding sector [16][17]. Pet Products Sector - The pet products sector is experiencing robust growth, with companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet benefiting from strong export performance and brand development [18]. - Yiyi Co. is expected to see significant revenue growth due to its acquisition strategy and strong sales performance [18]. - Yuanfei Pet is noted for its rapid growth in the domestic market and expansion of its product offerings [18]. Light Industry Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the light industry, with companies like Anfu Technology and Jianlin Home focusing on strategic acquisitions and technological advancements [19][20]. - Anfu Technology is expected to enhance its profitability through increased ownership in Nanfeng Battery and expansion into new business areas [19]. - Jianlin Home is transitioning towards smart robotics, leveraging its existing technology and market position [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting high dividend yield assets and companies with strong growth potential [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high dividend yield assets in stable industry segments, particularly in packaging and home furnishing sectors [5][10]. - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower procurement costs in the paper industry, with price increases in wood pulp and seasonal demand supporting paper prices [2][12]. - The report identifies key companies for investment, including packaging leaders like Yongxin Co., Yutong Technology, and home furnishing brands such as Kuka Home and Mousse [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Short-term focus on high dividend yield assets in stable packaging companies and leading home furnishing brands [5][6]. - Anticipated benefits from RMB appreciation leading to lower procurement costs in the paper industry [5][12]. - Recommendations for companies with strong export capabilities and potential for brand development [5][15]. 2. Industry Perspectives Packaging - The packaging industry is stabilizing, with leading companies reducing capital expenditures and maintaining high dividend payouts [6][7]. - Yongxin Co. is noted for its strong position in soft packaging and high dividend rates [6]. - Yutong Technology benefits from global supply chain advantages and is expected to increase its dividend payout [7]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by supportive real estate policies and improving consumer confidence [10][11]. - Companies like Kuka Home and Mousse are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [10][11]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is entering a recovery phase with stabilizing prices and improved demand dynamics [12][14]. - Companies such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are positioned to benefit from these trends [12][14]. Export Sector - The report highlights the importance of global supply chain strategies and brand development for companies in the export sector [15][16]. - Companies like Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co. are noted for their strong export capabilities and market positioning [15][16]. Pet Products - The pet products sector is experiencing growth with strong domestic brands and international expansion [19]. - Companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet are recommended for their robust growth potential [19]. Light Industry - The report discusses the strategic changes in light industry companies, focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance growth [20]. - Companies like Anfu Technology and Jianlin Home are noted for their innovative approaches and market positioning [20][21].