Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the packaging paper industry, with expectations for profit elasticity due to improving industry supply-demand dynamics, quality raw materials, and reduced capital expenditure pressures [3][8]. - The projected net profit for FY2024-2026 is estimated at 780 million, 2.68 billion, and 3.35 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a turnaround from negative to positive growth of +242% and +25% year-on-year [3][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for the company from 2020 to 2026 is projected to grow from 51.34 billion RMB in 2020 to 80.81 billion RMB in 2026, with a notable decline of 12% in 2023 followed by a recovery [2][11]. - Gross profit is expected to improve from 1.53 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.54 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [2][10]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 238 million RMB in 2023 to 3.35 billion RMB in 2026, showcasing significant growth potential [2][12]. Industry Position - The company is recognized as the largest producer of boxboard paper in Asia, with a diverse product line including various types of packaging paper and a strong market presence in mainland China [15][19]. - The company has a well-established supply chain, covering upstream raw materials and downstream packaging factories, which enhances its competitive edge [3][8]. Growth Outlook - The report highlights that the peak of capital expenditure has passed, with expectations for a reduction in depreciation pressure and an increase in profit margins as the company enters a harvest phase [28]. - The company’s sales structure indicates that 49.5% of revenue comes from card paper products, with a strong focus on high-strength corrugated core paper and coated gray bottom whiteboard paper [18][19]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 4.4 HKD per share, based on a cautious approach using both PE and PB valuation methods [13][14].

Investment Rating - Buy rating is assigned to the company, with a target price of HKD 3.21 [4] Core Views - The company is the global leader in paper production capacity, with significant scale effects and strong upward elasticity [6] - The company's profitability is on a continuous improvement trajectory, driven by the gradual commissioning of raw material production capacity, easing of capital expenditures, and falling coal prices [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 676 million, RMB 1.911 billion, and RMB 2.791 billion in FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [6] Industry Overview - The boxboard and corrugated paper industry is in a weak supply-demand balance, with raw materials forming a competitive barrier [2] - Demand for boxboard and corrugated paper is slowly recovering, with economic relevance and indirect exports contributing to demand [2] - Supply-side improvements are expected in 2024, with limited new capacity additions and a focus on high-end boxboard paper [2] - The industry's operating rate is projected to be 63.6% in 2024, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] Company Analysis - The company has a leading position in the boxboard and corrugated paper industry, with a 23.4% market share in 2022 [2] - The company has a well-established domestic and overseas production base layout, with significant transportation advantages [2] - The company's raw material production capacity is gradually coming online, reshaping its integrated industrial chain advantage [2] - Capital expenditures are slowing, and capacity utilization is improving, which will help reduce depreciation and financial pressure [2] - Falling coal prices are expected to enhance the cost advantage of the company's self-owned power plants [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 59.832 billion, RMB 69.404 billion, and RMB 78.835 billion in FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, respectively [3] - Net profit is projected to turn positive in FY2024, with significant growth in FY2025 and FY2026 [3] - The company's PE ratios for FY2024-2026 are estimated at 20.2x, 7.1x, and 4.9x, respectively, with a PB ratio of 0.31x, indicating undervaluation [6] Key Assumptions - Sales volume is expected to grow steadily, reaching 19.22 million tons, 21.21 million tons, and 23.37 million tons in FY2024-2026, respectively [9] - Gross margins are projected to improve, reaching 9.3%, 10.7%, and 11.3% in FY2024-2026, respectively [9] - Tonnage profits are expected to increase, with tonnage gross profits of RMB 289, RMB 350, and RMB 382 in FY2024-2026, respectively [9] Differentiating Factors - The market has overlooked the company's operational improvements, focusing more on industry beta [10] - The company's high-profit product mix is gradually increasing, and its product matrix is becoming more diversified, which will enhance profitability and stability [10] - Capital expenditures are expected to slow after FY2024, and the debt-to-asset ratio is projected to improve starting in FY2025 [10] - Falling coal prices will enhance the cost advantage of the company's self-owned power plants [10]

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of HKD 10.5 billion for the interim period, representing a 15% year-over-year growth[2]. - The Group achieved a sales volume increase of 16.3% to 10.0 million tonnes during the period, marking a record high[41]. - Revenue for the six months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 30,611,229, a decrease of 1.9% compared to RMB 31,198,020 in the same period of 2022[95]. - Gross profit for the period was approximately RMB 2,705.6 million, an increase of approximately RMB 2,019.5 million or 294.4% compared to RMB 686.1 million in the corresponding period last year[51]. - Operating profit for the Period was approximately RMB 1,243.5 million, a significant increase from an operating loss of RMB 861.6 million in the corresponding period last year[52]. - Profit attributable to the equity holders of the Company amounted to approximately RMB 292.4 million, compared to a loss of RMB 1,388.8 million in the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in gross profit margin[55]. - The gross profit margin improved to 25%, up from 22% in the previous year, reflecting better cost management and pricing strategies[2]. Market Expansion and Product Development - User data indicates a growing customer base, with an increase of 12% in the number of active clients compared to the previous year[2]. - The company has provided a positive outlook for the next quarter, projecting a revenue growth of 10% to 12% based on current market trends and demand[2]. - New product development includes the introduction of eco-friendly kraftlinerboard made from 100% recycled paper, catering to environmentally conscious customers[6]. - The company is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 20% increase in market share within the next fiscal year[2]. - A strategic acquisition of a local competitor is planned, which is expected to enhance production capacity by 15%[2]. - The company is investing in new technology to improve production efficiency, aiming for a 10% reduction in operational costs by the end of the fiscal year[2]. - The company aims to enhance product differentiation and tap into high-end markets to increase market share[41]. Sustainability and Environmental Commitment - The management emphasized a commitment to sustainability, with plans to increase the use of recycled materials in production to 50% by 2025[2]. - The Group's greyboard products, made from recycled waste paper, are classified into Land Dragon and Sea Dragon to cater to different customer needs[20]. - Uncoated woodfree paper and office paper are offered in weights of 40 to 80g/m2, with the latter being made from 100% recycled fiber for environmental sustainability[24][25]. - The Group's sales of recycled products qualified for an incentive tax arrangement, allowing a deduction of 10% from taxable income starting January 1, 2021[192]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2023, total assets amounted to RMB 128,912,302, an increase from RMB 120,651,004 as of June 30, 2023[91]. - Total liabilities rose to RMB 83,702,803 from RMB 75,514,582 as of June 30, 2023[92]. - The company had bank and cash balances, short-term bank deposits, and restricted cash amounting to approximately RMB 7,435.5 million as of December 31, 2023, with total undrawn bank facilities of approximately RMB 42,323.8 million[57]. - The net decrease in cash and cash equivalents for the period was RMB (3,032,656) thousand, compared to RMB (1,354,546) thousand in the same period of 2022[106]. - The company reported a significant decrease in cash flows from investing activities, primarily due to payments for property, plant, and equipment totaling RMB (6,602,715) thousand[104]. Governance and Risk Management - The company continued to comply fully with the Corporate Governance Code as set out in Appendix C1 to the Listing Rules[58]. - The company has established a Risk Management Committee to oversee risk management and internal control processes[63]. - The Group's financial activities are exposed to various risks, including foreign exchange risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk[115]. - The Group aims to maintain sufficient cash and cash equivalents and committed credit facilities to manage liquidity risk effectively[119]. - The Group has not made any changes to its risk management policies during the six months ended December 31, 2023[115]. Shareholder Information - As of December 31, 2023, the total number of ordinary shares issued by the company is 4,692,220,811[75]. - Ms. Cheung Yan and Mr. Liu Ming Chung each hold a total of 3,113,811,942 shares, representing approximately 66.36% of the company's total shareholdings[74]. - The Board has resolved not to declare an interim dividend for the six months ended 31 December 2023, consistent with the previous year where no dividend was declared[69].

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 造纸 公 司 跟 踪 报 告 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | ＃市场数据 marketData ＃ | | | 日期 | 20240306 | | 收盘价（港元） | 3.46 | | 总股本（亿股） | 47 | | 流通股本（亿股） | 47 | | 净资产（亿元） | 499 | | 总资产（亿元） | 1,423 | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.81 | | 数据来源： Wind | ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 海外原材料研究 分析师：韩亦佳 SFC：BOT963 SAC：S0190517080003 hanyij@xyzq.com.cn ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 首次 ） ＃ dyStockco de＃ 02689.HK ＃玖龙纸业 dyCompany＃ 港股通（沪/深） 盈利修复，成本控制 ...

更新报告 买入 4Q23 实现扭亏，盈利望持续修复 玖龙纸业（2689.HK） 2024-03-01星期五 投资要点 目标价： 4.57 港元 ➢ 实现扭亏为盈，符合盈利预喜： 现 价： 3.63港元 1HFY24（即自然年2H23）公司录得营业收入306.11亿元，同比-1.9%；毛 预计升幅: 25.9% 利润大幅增长294.4%至27.06亿元，毛利率同比提升约6.6个百分点至 8.8%，主要因平均售价的下降幅度（约-15.6%yoy）低于平均成本（约 -22%yoy）的下降幅度；最终录得归母净利润2.92亿元，实现扭亏为盈（去 重要数据 年同期录得净亏损13.89亿元），处于此前盈利预喜中枢 。 日期 2024-02-29 ➢ 新厂成功投产，销量实现双位数增长： 收盘价（港元） 3.63 期内，伴随北海及马来西亚项目的成功投产，截至2023年末，公司造纸年 总股本（百万股） 4,692 产能达到2,112万吨,同比增加235万吨。受益于新增产能及降库存策略， 总市值（百万港元） 17,032 公司1HFY24销量同比+16.3%至1,000万吨；其中，牛卡纸/高强瓦楞纸/ 净资产（百万元） 45,13 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （股份代號：2689） （於百慕達註冊成立的有限公司） 截至二零二三年十二月三十一日止六個月 未經審核中期業績公佈 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 財務摘要 | | • | 本集團的銷量增加 16.3% 至約 10.0 百萬噸。 | | • | 收入減少 1.9% 至約人民幣 30,611.2 百萬元。 | | • | 毛利潤增加 294.4% 至約人民幣 2,705.6 百萬元。 | | • | 於本期間的本公司權益持有人應佔盈利約為人民幣 292.4 百萬元。 | | • | 每股基本盈利增加至約人民幣 0.06 元。 | – 1 – 財務業績 中期簡明綜合損益表 玖龍紙業（控股）有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）欣然公佈，本公司及其 ...

智通财经APP获悉，玖龙纸业(02689)盘中涨近7%，截至发稿，涨5.99%，报3.36港元，成交额3061.13万 港元。 消息面上，据生意社消息，2月1日，玖龙纸业多基地发布春节后上调纸价的通知，自2月22日(正月十 三)起，旗下东莞、太仓、天津、沈阳、湖北六大基地牛卡、再生、瓦纸上调30元/吨。这是一周内玖龙 公司发出的第二轮涨价函。此前，玖龙也发出涨价通知，宣布自2月1日起，旗下东莞、太仓、天津、沈 阳、湖北、重庆七大基牛卡芯纸普涨30元/吨。 浙商证券指出，FY24H1扭亏为盈，盈利中枢向上修复。24Q1春节停机检修市场供应量减少，预计价格 及吨盈利存在一定支撑。进口冲击趋于平滑、国内需求弱补库预期下，24年盈利或震荡修复。2024 年 进口零关税维持，国内龙头维持压缩产业链利润策略，在国内需求弱补库、纸价弱震荡预期下，2024年 进口纸增量将趋于平滑，预计盈利及价格中枢随需求波动震荡。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，玖龙纸业(02689)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.21%，报3.08港元，成交额2096.76万港 元。 消息面上，玖龙纸业近期公告，预计截至2023年12月底止六个月净利约2至4亿元人民币，此前一年同期 录亏损13.89亿元人民币。期内亏转盈利，主要是由于产品销售量增加，原材料成本下降幅度大于产品 销售价格下降幅度，导致毛利率上升。 此外，据生意社消息，2月1日起，玖龙纸业东莞、太仓、重庆、天津、湖北、沈阳、泉州基地将涨价， 涨幅为30元/吨，主要涉及牛卡纸与瓦楞纸。华泰证券表示，虽然短期市场仍有挑战，但行业拐点正在 渐行渐近。预计公司有望逐步享受到行业整体供需改善与自身竞争力提升的共振，盈利修复有望实现较 强弹性。 ...

Group 1 - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) experienced a decline of over 4%, with a current drop of 5.26%, trading at HKD 2.88, with a transaction volume of HKD 28.84 million [1] - The company announced an expected net profit of approximately RMB 200 to 400 million for the six months ending December 2023, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 1.389 billion in the same period last year [1] - The turnaround to profitability is attributed to an increase in product sales volume and a decrease in raw material costs, which outweighed the decline in product sales prices, leading to an increase in gross margin [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley noted that the first half of the year is traditionally a low-demand season for paper producers due to weak demand during holiday periods [1] - However, supply is expected to remain high, with over 4 million new paper production capacity set to commence operations in 2024, which will further intensify market supply pressure [1] - Despite limited downside potential, the ongoing supply-demand mismatch is expected to continue exerting pressure on the paper industry, particularly affecting paper prices and Nine Dragons' earnings in the second half of 2024 [1]

玖龍 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司* NINE DRAGONS PAPER (HOLDINGS) LIMITED (在百慕達註冊成立的有限公司) 股份代號 : 2689 沒 有 環 保 年報 2022/2023 * 匯供鐵別 目錄 Contents printed on Land Dragon 100% Recycled Fiber Offset Paper | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------| | 公司資料 | 2 | | 財務摘要 | 3 | | 主要產品 | 4 | | 董事長報告 | 8 | | 管理層討論及分析 | | | 業務分析 | 10 | | 財務回顧 | 12 | | 本集團在過去五年的概況 | 18 | | 企業管治報告 | | | 環境、社會及管治報告 | 20 | | 投資者關係 | 73 | | 企業管治 | 75 | | 薪酬委員會 | 88 | | 審核委員會 | 91 | | 內部監控及風險管理 | 93 | 董事及高級管理層簡歷 董事及高級管理層 97 董事會報告及財務報表 | --- | --- | |------- ...