Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi coming online. This has resulted in a rapid reduction in pulping costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance beyond expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit increments due to its self-produced pulp advantage. By FY25, the company’s production capacity for white card and cultural paper is expected to reach 1.8 million and 2.27 million tons, respectively, with further expansions planned for FY26H1 [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus remains on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials, with additional production capacity planned for FY26 and FY27. This ongoing expansion is expected to further enhance the company's profitability [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY26-FY28 are 72.67 billion, 73.99 billion, and 74.76 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. The attributable net profit is forecasted to be 4.08 billion, 4.41 billion, and 5.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 131%, 8%, and 14%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 times [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi contributing to a rapid reduction in production costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance above expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit growth due to its self-produced pulp advantages [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials is expected to further enhance profitability. The company has plans to build additional chemical pulp production facilities in Chongqing and Tianjin, with expected production increases in the coming years [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 72.67 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 74.76 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 2%, and 1%. The attributable net profit is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 5.04 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 131%, 8%, and 14%. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 [4][9]

Group 1 - Lee & Man Paper (02314) has seen its stock price rise by over 30% year-to-date, with expected profits of approximately HKD 1.88 billion to HKD 2.00 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% to 47% due to increased marginal profits [1] - Soundon Technology (02495) shares rose over 8.8% after winning a contract worth nearly RMB 300 million for an AI project in Sichuan province [1] - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) stock increased by over 3.8%, with a reported 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries in January 2026, indicating a strong market strategy and capacity layout [1] Group 2 - Tea stocks experienced a rise, with Gu Ming (01364) up 4.12%, Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 3.74%, and others benefiting from a promotional campaign offering free milk tea at over 300,000 stores nationwide [2] - Innovent Biologics (09969) shares surged over 11% after announcing expected revenues of RMB 2.37 billion in 2025, a 134% increase, and a projected net profit of around RMB 630 million [2] - Jun Da Holdings (02865) rebounded over 4.6% following news of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission accepting SpaceX's data center application [2] Group 3 - Li Auto-W (02015) shares rose over 5.3% as the CEO teased the new Li L9 model, emphasizing the importance of AI in enhancing vehicle value [3] - JX International Resources (03858) saw a stock increase of over 4.6% as tungsten prices reached a recent high of CNY 1,545,000 per ton, up CNY 25,000 from the previous trading day [3] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) shares increased by over 5.7% after announcing a profit forecast for FY26H1 of CNY 2.15 billion to CNY 2.25 billion, a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [3] Group 4 - Long Resources (01712) stock surged over 35%, reaching a historical high, with expected after-tax profits of AUD 58 million to AUD 62 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from AUD 12.9 million in the previous year [4] Group 5 - Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.US) debuted on the U.S. stock market with a closing increase of 7.41%, focusing on power solutions for data centers [5] - Bob's Discount Furniture (BOBS.US) also entered the market, with a slight increase of 0.12%, managing 206 showrooms across 26 states and projecting revenues of USD 2.32 billion for FY2025 [5] Group 6 - Eikon Therapeutics (EIKN.US) fell over 16.67% on its Nasdaq debut, focusing on cancer therapies with a candidate drug in mid-stage trials [6] - Cryptocurrency stocks saw significant declines, with Hut 8 (HUT.US) down 17.89% and others following suit amid a Bitcoin sell-off, which dropped nearly 10% [6] Group 7 - Major U.S. indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.6%, and notable tech stocks like Amazon (AMZN.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) also declining [7] - Estée Lauder (EL.US) dropped nearly 19.19% despite meeting sales expectations, reflecting market volatility [7] Group 8 - NIO (NIO.US) shares rose 5.86% after announcing an expected adjusted operating profit of between RMB 700 million and RMB 1.2 billion for Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly adjusted operating profit [8] - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US) initially surged nearly 14% before closing down 3.77%, launching a new generic medication at a competitive price [9] - Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell 8.46% amid concerns over weak earnings forecasts related to chip shortages affecting smartphone demand [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.13%, down 304 points, closing at 26,580 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - Three new stocks were listed: Dazhu CNC (03200) rose by 18%, Muyuan Foods (02714) increased by 4.72%, and Zhuozheng Medical (02677) surged by 34% [1] - Zhongxin Hang (03931) saw a 3.83% increase, with a 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries and plans for full circulation of H-shares [1] - Long Resources (01712) experienced a 30% intraday surge, with expected net profit growth of up to 3.8 times year-on-year [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) rose over 10%, with institutions optimistic about fiber optic manufacturers benefiting from price increases [1] - Nuo Cheng Jianhua (09969) increased by over 11%, achieving profitability for the first time due to the volume of Obutinin and growth in BD revenue [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose over 5%, benefiting from improved self-sufficiency in wood pulp and favorable industry supply-demand dynamics [1] - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by over 5%, supported by supply contraction driving up tungsten prices [1] Group 2 - Fuhong Hanlin (02696) rose over 5% after licensing rights to Hanshuo in Japan to Eizai for a total transaction amount of approximately $388 million [2] Group 3 - Tongda Group (00698) increased by over 6%, expecting to turn a profit with a maximum earnings forecast of 125 million HKD for the previous year [3] - NIO-SW (09866) rose over 5%, marking its first quarterly profit with an expected adjusted operating profit of up to 1.2 billion CNY for the last quarter [3] - Cryptocurrency ETFs and related stocks continued to decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 amid ongoing sell-offs in the crypto market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast indicating significant profit growth for FY26H1 [1] Company Summary - The company expects a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 315% to 337% [1] - The significant profit growth is primarily driven by the effective integration of pulp and paper production, with a total pulp capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1 [1] - An additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp is expected to be put into production in FY27, enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of pulp and providing substantial cost advantages [1] Industry Summary - Since the second half of 2025, prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded from their lows, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton [1] - The price of white card paper has risen by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton since the end of August [1] - The company benefits from a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, allowing it to take full advantage of the improving supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] - Although cultural paper prices have declined, the company maintains stable profitability due to its pulp and paper integration advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has announced a positive earnings forecast, with significant profit growth expected for FY26H1, driven by integrated pulp and paper operations and improved market conditions [1] Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315% to 337% [1] Industry Dynamics - The company benefits from significant cost advantages due to an increase in self-sufficiency in wood pulp, with a production capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1, and an additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp expected to be operational in FY27 [1] - Prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded since H2 2025, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton, and white card paper prices rising by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton [1] - The company has a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, positioning it well to benefit from improvements in industry supply and demand [1] - Despite a decline in cultural paper prices, the company's profitability remains stable due to the advantages of its integrated pulp and paper operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing stable price trends ahead of the Spring Festival, with leading companies initiating "expectation management" for the post-holiday market [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Strategies - Nine major bases of Nine Dragons Paper Industries announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton for key packaging paper types starting March 2 [1] - Several paper companies are implementing maintenance plans during the Spring Festival, urging downstream packaging firms to prepare production in advance [1] - Analysts suggest that these actions are standard market behaviors aimed at stabilizing prices during seasonal demand declines [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Profit Recovery - Price adjustments by large paper manufacturers provide market guidance, especially after several rounds of price declines [2] - The first quarter is expected to see reduced supply due to maintenance, with potential price increases post-Spring Festival supported by rising demand [2] - Leading companies like Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Co. have issued positive profit forecasts, indicating a recovery in the industry [2] Group 3: Industry Performance and Challenges - Among 24 A-share listed paper companies, 11 have disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with several predicting losses due to intensified competition and price declines [3] - The paper sector is at a critical stage of "profit recovery + long-term growth," focusing on price elasticity and benefiting from exports and policies [3] Group 4: Segment Analysis - Packaging paper is benefiting from e-commerce logistics and export demand, while cultural paper faces long-term demand pressures due to digitalization [4] - The supply-demand relationship in the packaging paper sector is becoming more balanced, suggesting continued price recovery [4] - Companies with integrated supply chains, such as Shandong Sun Paper Industry, are positioned favorably for profit resilience [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, exceeding expectations, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production and improvements in pricing dynamics within the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding 201 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to 3.789 billion, 4.671 billion, and 5.702 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.8, 7.1, and 5.9 times [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant effects, with the company owning 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, including 2 million tons of chemical pulp, and plans to increase capacity to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [1] - The industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with certain paper types seeing price recoveries. As of FY26H1, the company has a total capacity of 17.13 million tons for corrugated box paper, 2 million tons for gray bottom white paper, 3 million tons for white card paper, and 2.97 million tons for cultural paper [1] Group 3: Product Pricing and Market Trends - The price of corrugated box paper has been rising due to factors such as increased costs of recycled paper and seasonal demand, with average prices reaching 3,648 yuan per ton for box paper and 2,857 yuan per ton for corrugated paper in 2025H2, reflecting increases of 33 and 174 yuan per ton, respectively [2] - White card paper prices have also been on an upward trend, reaching 4,239 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, up 309 yuan per ton from August, with expectations for profitability improvement in this segment [2] - Cultural paper prices are under pressure, with an average price of 4,843 yuan per ton in 2025H2, down 489 yuan per ton, but the company is expected to maintain stable profitability in this segment due to its integrated production advantages [2]

Northeast Region - Liaoning Xingdong Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 2, with specific prices set for various grades [1] - Shenyang Jiu Long Paper Industry in Liaoning has also lowered yellow waste prices by 20 yuan/ton, with adjusted prices for different grades [1] - Fushun Amber Paper Industry in Liaoning has implemented price adjustments effective January 15, with specific prices for various grades [1] North China Region - Hebei Baoding Zeyu Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 4, with specific prices for different grades [1] - Tianjin Jiu Long Paper Industry has lowered yellow waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton, while other waste paper prices remain unchanged [2] - Tangshan Leiting Zhang's Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 50-30 yuan/ton starting February 2, with specific prices based on yellow board content [3] Central China Region - Henan Taikang Longyuan Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 3, with specific prices for various grades [6] - Hubei Xiangfan Jin Phoenix Paper Industry has adjusted prices for yellow paper grades, with reductions of 20 yuan/ton for A-grade and above [7] - Hubei Jingzhou Gong'an Mountain Eagle Paper Industry has adjusted prices for various grades of waste paper, with reductions of 20-10 yuan/ton [7] East China Region - Shandong Zibo Renfeng Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices starting February 4, with specific prices for different grades [8] - Jiangsu Xuzhou Jianping Paper Industry has lowered waste paper prices by 10 yuan/ton, with specific prices for various grades [8] - Anhui Xuancheng Wanli Paper Industry has increased prices for T-grade, A-grade, B-grade, and C-grade by 20-30 yuan/ton, while other prices remain unchanged [9] South China Region - Guangdong Dongguan Jintian Paper Industry has reduced prices for various grades of waste paper by 20 yuan/ton starting February 4 [26] - Guangdong Dongguan Jiu Long Paper Industry has increased white waste prices by 30 yuan/ton, with specific prices for different grades [27] - Guangdong Zhaoqing Mountain Eagle Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 30 yuan/ton, with specific prices for various grades [28]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国造纸杂志社） 1月27日，南通市数据局发布环评受理公示，金红叶纸业(南通)有限公司APP如东基地年产200万t天然纤 维素项目正式公示。项目总投资约163.95亿元，建设周期36个月，主要服务如东基地生活造纸及规划四 期项目。 1月28日，玖龙纸业（02689.HK）在港交所发布公告称，2025年下半年盈利介于21.5亿~22.5亿元人民币 之间，较2024年同期6.803亿元人民币增长216.0%~230.7%。该盈利增长主要由于产品销售量增加及销售 价格上升，及原材料成本下降而导致毛利润大幅增加。 1月28日，岳阳林纸发布公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-2.60亿~-2.00亿元。 1 2月2日，工业和信息化部、生态环境部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局四部门公布《工业产品碳足迹 核算规则团体标准推荐清单（第三批）》的通告。 2 行业 1月27日，国家统计局公布了2025年全国规模以上工业企业利润情况，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业 实现利润总额73982.0亿元，比2024年增长0.6%。其中，造纸和纸制品业营业收入14186.7亿元，同比下 降2.6 ...