Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's performance exceeded expectations, with projected profits for FY26H1 estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production, leading to a significant value reconstruction for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a profit of 1.95-2.05 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0% [1] - The profit growth is primarily attributed to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs, resulting in a substantial increase in gross profit, with the main profit contribution coming from pulp [1] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - Incremental profit contributions mainly come from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities expected to ramp up in FY25H1 and FY26H1 [2] - New production capacities include 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp at the Beihai base, as well as additional capacities in Hubei and Guangxi [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - For FY26H2, the company anticipates further price increases for broadleaf pulp, while cultural and white card paper prices and profit per ton are at historical lows, suggesting potential for price recovery [2] - The profitability of integrated pulp and paper production capacity is expected to be a key driver of performance, with additional production and ramp-up in FY26H2 and FY27 [2]

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY2026H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 41%-48% [1] - Excluding perpetual capital securities holders' share, the profit is expected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 315%-337% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 50%-58% [1] - The profit growth is primarily driven by increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] Group 2 - The company has nearly 29 million tons of annual design capacity for paper and wood pulp as of June 30, 2025, with over 5 million tons of new paper capacity added from FY2022 to FY2025, achieving a CAGR of 8% [1] - The company is expected to have a total of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity, over 2 million tons of wood fiber capacity, and over 5.4 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of 2025 [1] - Future expansion plans include an additional 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity in locations such as Chongqing, Tianjin, and Beihai, with an expected self-sufficiency in raw materials reaching 10.2 million tons by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The demand for boxboard and corrugated paper in China has a five-year CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5%, respectively, with continued growth expected due to the ongoing development of the national economy and demand from consumer goods, e-commerce, logistics, and express delivery sectors [2] - Supply-side constraints are anticipated post-2025 as leading companies reduce capital expenditures, leading to limited incremental capacity and a gradual improvement in the industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to drive prices and profitability upward [2] - The company adjusts profit forecasts for FY26-28 to 3.85 billion, 4.24 billion, and 4.59 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.9X, 8.1X, and 7.5X [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded both its own and market expectations for net profit in 1HFY26, achieving a profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [1][2] Group 1: Performance Highlights - The company expects sales of approximately 12 million tons, with a net profit per ton of about 160 yuan, driven by self-produced pulp cost and production volume [1] - The black paper segment, particularly corrugated box paper, is experiencing a stable recovery, with significant price increases anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to rising waste paper prices and seasonal demand [1] - The company is projected to have a net profit of around 100 yuan per ton in the black paper segment as the industry supply stabilizes and demand grows steadily [1] Group 2: Pulp Production and Financial Quality - The company disclosed a pulp production of 3 million tons for FY25, with expectations of over 2 million tons in 1HFY26, which is a key driver for the profit exceeding expectations [2] - The company’s self-produced pulp self-sufficiency rate is close to 100%, leading to an increase in excess profits compared to peers, with an average net profit per ton for white paper expected to be above 300 yuan [2] - The company is set to invest approximately 11 billion yuan in capital expenditures for FY26, indicating a conclusion to the current round of capital spending, which is expected to improve financial quality [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the higher-than-expected production and profit per ton, the company has raised its net profit forecasts for FY26-27 by 32% and 39% to 3.6 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 29% to 9 HKD, corresponding to a P/B ratio of 0.7x and 0.6x for FY26-27, indicating a potential upside of 21% [2]

机构：中金公司 研究员：Yunyan XU/Yan CHEN/Lan LOU Results Preview Preannounced net profit beat our and market expectations Nine Dragons Paper (NDP) preannounced its 1HFY26 results, estimating that attributable net profit ranged between Rmb2.15bn and Rmb2.25bn. Excluding interest from perpetual bonds, its adjusted attributable net profit might have increased 315–337% YoY to Rmb1.95–2.05bn in 1HFY26, beating our and market expectations. We think the firm's sales volume was around 12mnt in 1HFY25, with per-tonne net prof ...

业绩再超预期，浆纸一体化驱动价值重构 玖龙纸业(2689) [Table_Industry] 林纸产品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 7.46 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 玖龙纸业公司更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 玖龙业绩再超预期，FY26H1 预计盈利 19.5-20.5 亿元，浆纸一体化驱动公司价值重 构 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万元人民币) | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689), with an expected EPS of 0.85/0.94/1.03 CNY for FY2026-2028, and a target price of 23.1 HKD based on a 25x PE for FY2026 [1] - For FY26H1, Nine Dragons Paper is expected to report a profit of 19.5-20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0%, driven by increased sales volume and prices, along with a decrease in raw material costs [1] Group 2 - Incremental profit contributions are primarily from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities coming online in FY25H1 and FY25H2 [2] - For FY26H2, the outlook suggests that hardwood pulp prices are expected to rise further and remain high, while cultural and white card paper prices are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery and continued profit release from integrated pulp and paper production [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689), with projected EPS for FY2026-2028 at 0.85, 0.94, and 1.03 CNY, respectively, and a target price of 23.1 HKD based on a 25x PE for FY2026 [1] - For FY26H1, the company is expected to report a profit of 19.5-20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0%, driven by increased sales volume and prices, along with reduced raw material costs [1] - The main profit contribution is expected to come from pulp, with significant growth attributed to the increase in product sales and pricing [1] Group 2 - Incremental profit contributions are primarily from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities coming online in FY25H1 and FY25H2 [2] - The Beihai base has 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp expected to be operational, while Hubei will add 650,000 tons of chemical pulp and 700,000 tons of mechanical pulp, along with additional paper products [2] Group 3 - For FY26H2, the outlook suggests that hardwood pulp prices are likely to rise further and maintain high levels, while cultural and white card paper prices are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3] - The profitability of the integrated pulp and paper production capacity is highlighted as a key outperforming factor, with additional capacity expected to come online in FY26H2 and FY27, alongside improvements in corrugated paper profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company has exceeded performance expectations, with FY26H1 projected earnings between 1.95 billion to 2.05 billion RMB, driven by the integration of pulp and paper operations [2][9] - The integration of pulp and paper production is expected to significantly enhance profitability, with major contributions from new capacities in Hubei and Beihai [9] - The company anticipates further price increases in short-fiber pulp and improvements in profitability for cultural and white card paper, which are currently at historical low levels [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 59.50 billion RMB - FY2025A: 63.24 billion RMB - FY2026E: 69.30 billion RMB - FY2027E: 76.29 billion RMB - FY2028E: 84.02 billion RMB - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 4.9%, 6.3%, 9.6%, 10.1%, and 10.1% respectively [3][10] - Net profit projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 750.68 million RMB - FY2025A: 1.77 billion RMB - FY2026E: 4.00 billion RMB - FY2027E: 4.40 billion RMB - FY2028E: 4.84 billion RMB - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 131.5%, 135.4%, 126.6%, 9.8%, and 10.2% respectively [3][10] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 20.31 in FY2024A to 7.23 in FY2028E, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness [3][10] Market Data - The current stock price is 7.46 HKD, with a market capitalization of 35.00 billion HKD and a 52-week price range of 2.82 to 7.46 HKD [6][10]

[Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放 大 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩预告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。公 司预计此期间盈利为 21.5-22.5 亿元（同比+216.0%~230.7%），剔除永续 资本证券持有人应占盈利 2.01 亿元后，归母净利润为 19.5-20.5 亿元（同 比 ...

（原标题：大摩：料玖龙纸业(02689)今年业绩稳健 评级"与大市同步"） 该行预测，集团2026全年业绩稳健，上半年对造纸商而言是传统消费淡季，期间或意味着纸价会有小幅 修正。但大摩认为集团优化的产品结构及更佳的成本表现，应能缓冲消费淡季需求放缓的影响，从而为 集团带来全年盈利稳健。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，予玖龙纸业(02689)目标价6港元，评级"与大市同步"。玖 龙纸业预计2026年上半年净利润将同比增216%至231%，达到21.5亿至22.5亿元人民币(下同)，略高于该 行预测的20亿元，总体大致符合预期。 ...