证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗宇琦 A0230124070004 luoyq@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 - 联系人 罗宇琦 (8621)23297818× luoyq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 04 月 12 日 技术创新加速人民币国际化，中国 支付方案出海先行 看好 —— GenAI 系列之 56 暨 Fintech 系列深度之 19 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 计算机 ⚫ 人民币国际化是中美博弈关键战略，正向循环开始形成。1）2024 年以来，政策密集 出台，重心是鼓励跨境电商和跨境支付系统发展。2021-2023 年每年仅两份相关政策 文件，2024 年以来已有 11 份相关政策文件或相关会议报道；2）人民币国际化，中国 跨境贸易是推动力、跨境支付是润滑剂，预计跨境支付支持政策有长期性。 ⚫ CIPS、mBridge、Brics Pa ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.2 HKD, based on a 13x P/E valuation for 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company's 2H24 performance fell short of market expectations, with total revenue of 1.5 billion HKD, a year-on-year decline of 20%, and a 11% miss compared to Bloomberg consensus [2][3]. - The payment business, which accounts for 89% of revenue, also underperformed, with a 6% revenue miss due to a larger-than-expected decline in GPV [1][2]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in its payment business in 2025, with projected revenue growth outpacing GPV growth, leading to a stabilization in profits [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2H24 was 1.5 billion HKD, down 20% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 28%, up 9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2H24 was 220 million HKD, a 17% decline year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 14.7% [2][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 51 million HKD for 2H24, compared to a loss of 22 million HKD in the same period last year [2][4]. Business Segment Analysis - The one-stop payment service revenue decreased by 19% year-on-year in 2H24, while merchant solutions revenue fell by 30% due to a decline in the number of paying merchants [3]. - The overseas business showed significant progress, with a GPV of 1.1 billion HKD in 2024, nearly a fivefold increase year-on-year, driven by channel development and customer expansion [3][4]. Financial Projections - For 2025, the company anticipates a 9% year-on-year increase in payment GPV, with revenue growth slightly exceeding GPV growth [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 270 million HKD, with a net profit margin of 4.5% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 8.2, reflecting a 13x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company's 2H24 performance fell short of market expectations, with total revenue of HKD 1.5 billion, a year-on-year decline of 20%, and a 11% miss compared to Bloomberg consensus [2][3]. - The payment business, which accounts for 89% of revenue, also underperformed, with a 6% revenue miss due to a greater-than-expected decline in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) [1][2]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in its payment business in 2025, projecting a high single-digit year-on-year growth, with revenue growth outpacing GPV growth [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was HKD 3.951 billion, with a projected decline to HKD 3.087 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to HKD 3.402 billion in 2025, representing a 10.2% year-on-year growth [4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 274 million, with a net profit margin of 4.5% [4][9]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 24.4% in 2025, up from 23.6% in 2024 [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The one-stop payment service revenue decreased by 19% year-on-year in 2H24, while merchant solutions revenue fell by 30% due to a decline in the number of paying merchants [3][9]. - The overseas business showed significant progress, with a GPV of HKD 1.1 billion in 2024, nearly a fivefold increase year-on-year, driven by bank channel development and customer expansion [3][4]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 3.166 billion, with a circulating market value of HKD 1.766 billion [5]. - The stock has experienced a 12-month low of HKD 6.4 and a high of HKD 13.4, indicating volatility in its market performance [5].

Macroeconomic Insights - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10, 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce agricultural imports from the U.S. [3] - In 2024, China imported agricultural products worth $24.9 billion from the U.S., with major imports including soybeans (22.1 million tons), sorghum (5.7 million tons), corn (2.1 million tons), and wheat (1.9 million tons) [3]. Agricultural Sector - The increase in tariffs is likely to enhance domestic grain prices and benefit the planting industry chain, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in grain production [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in agriculture, particularly in genetically modified and gene-edited crops, which are expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technology reserves [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding their domestic brands in the pet food sector, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which primarily generate revenue from domestic sales [4]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable pig prices and reduced costs [5]. - The analysis of March's supply and demand dynamics in the pig farming industry shows a balanced market, but a potential downward trend in prices is anticipated if there is no support from state reserves [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Lihua Shares; for the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks are KQ Bio, Haida Group; in the pig farming sector, recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Bio, and Shennong Group [7]. - In the seed industry, recommended stocks include Fengle Seed Industry, Quanyin High-Tech, Longping High-Tech, and Dabeinong [7]. - In the pet sector, recommended stocks are Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Bio [7]. Chemical Industry - The report suggests that the imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic substitution process for chemical products, particularly in high-end markets [17]. - Beneficiary products include lubricant additives, nucleating agents, adsorption separation resins, and nano-silica, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Rare Earth Industry - The report maintains an "overweight" rating on the rare earth sector, anticipating that the recent tariffs will enhance China's strategic advantages in rare earth production and lead to price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [22]. - The export control measures on heavy rare earths are expected to stimulate overseas stockpiling, further driving up prices [23]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in 2025, with a focus on improving asset-liability matching strategies [25]. - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved investment returns and stable business strategies [40].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the company in 2024 is generally in line with market expectations, with a revenue decline of 22% year-on-year to 3.1 billion yuan, while net profit increased significantly by 6.1 times to 82.45 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 decreased by 31% year-on-year to 380 million yuan, reflecting the impact of macroeconomic conditions [1] - The company is currently trading at 8x/5x EV/EBITDA for 2025/2026 estimates, with a target price reduction of 39% to 9.5 HKD, indicating an 18% upside potential [1] - The gross payment volume (GPV) for 2024 decreased by 19% year-on-year to 2.34 trillion yuan, primarily due to macroeconomic fluctuations and a decline in average transaction amounts per customer [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The company's overseas payment transaction volume increased nearly fivefold to over 1.1 billion yuan, benefiting from its ongoing global expansion strategy [2] - The overall fee rate for the company's acquiring business slightly decreased by 0.6 basis points year-on-year to 11.5 basis points, leading to a 23% decline in overall acquiring business revenue to 2.7 billion yuan [2] - The value-added services, including merchant solutions and in-store e-commerce services, contributed 13% to total revenue, with a slight increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company has enhanced its operational efficiency through AI deployment, reducing related operational expenses by 20% in 2024, with sales, management, and R&D expenses each decreasing by approximately 11% [4] - Financial costs decreased by over 30% year-on-year due to streamlined debt structure and cost control measures, contributing to the significant increase in net profit [4] - The gross margin for value-added services remained stable at 87.2%, supported by high product profitability and cost management [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.087 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 21.9, while profit increased to 73 million yuan, showing a growth of over 6 times [1] - The overall gross margin improved from 18.7% in 2023 to 23.6% in 2024, attributed to the application of artificial intelligence across its three main business lines [1] - The contribution of value-added services to total revenue increased from 11.8% in 2023 to 13.0% in 2024, indicating an optimization in revenue composition [1] Revenue and Profit - The revenue from merchant solutions reached 340 million yuan in 2024, down 6.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 87.2% [2] - The gross margin for in-store e-commerce services rose to 81.3% [2] - The overseas business continued to grow rapidly, with a total transaction volume exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, marking a nearly 5-fold increase year-on-year [2] Cost Control and Efficiency - The company achieved a reduction in sales, administrative, and R&D expenses by 11%, 10.8%, and 10.5% respectively, due to the broader application of artificial intelligence [1] - Overall operational expenses were reduced by 20%, contributing to improved cost efficiency [2] Payment Business Performance - The gross payment volume (GPV) for the payment business reached 2.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19% [1] - The peak daily transaction count approached 60 million transactions [1] - The gross margin for the second half of the year increased by 212.1% to 289.8 million yuan, achieving a margin of 21.6% [1]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.087 billion RMB in 2024, with a profit of 73 million RMB, representing over a sixfold increase compared to the previous year [1] - The overall gross margin improved from 18.7% in 2023 to 23.6% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue composition has been optimized, with value-added services contributing 13.0% to total revenue in 2024, up from 11.8% in 2023 [3] - Payment gross profit increased from 92.9 million RMB in the first half of 2024 to 290 million RMB in the second half, maintaining market leadership [3] Group 2: Business Operations - The company’s core business, one-stop payment services, remains industry-leading, with a total payment volume (GPV) of 23.4 trillion RMB in 2024 and peak daily transaction counts reaching nearly 60 million [2] - The company has seen a significant reduction in sales, administrative, and R&D expenses by 11.0%, 10.8%, and 10.5% respectively, due to the extensive application of artificial intelligence [2] Group 3: International Expansion - The overseas business experienced rapid growth, with transaction volume exceeding 1.1 billion RMB, a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year [4] - The company has expanded its international partnerships with major payment networks and banks, enhancing its global payment network coverage and service quality [4] Group 4: AI Integration - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence across various business lines, with AI Agent products being developed for retail, tourism, and entertainment sectors to meet diverse client needs [5] - AI applications have penetrated the company's business processes, achieving significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024, but significant growth in profit, indicating a shift towards improved profitability despite lower transaction volumes [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 3.087 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9% [1]. - Net profit reached 73 million RMB, an increase of over 600% compared to the previous year [1]. - Gross profit margin improved from 18.7% in 2023 to 23.6% in 2024 [2]. Business Operations - The company's GPV (Gross Payment Volume) for 2024 was 2.34 trillion RMB, down 19% from 2.88 trillion RMB in the previous year [1]. - The decline in GPV and revenue was attributed to economic fluctuations and a high base effect from the previous year [1]. - The company operates three main business lines: one-stop payment services, in-store e-commerce services, and merchant solutions [2]. Growth Areas - The one-stop payment service remains the core revenue driver, although it experienced a decline [2]. - International business continued to grow rapidly, with transaction volume exceeding 1.1 billion RMB, a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year [2]. - The contribution of value-added services to total revenue increased from 11.8% in 2023 to 13.0% in 2024 [2]. Cost Management - Sales, administrative, and R&D expenses decreased by 11.0%, 10.8%, and 10.5% respectively, with a 20% reduction in related operational costs [3]. - The company attributed these reductions to the widespread application of artificial intelligence across various business lines [3]. Technological Advancements - The AI Lab established in 2017 has been instrumental in deploying AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and risk management [4]. - The company has developed tools like "Y-Copilot" to improve internal coding practices and "Xiao Ka Assistant" for enhancing customer service and content creation [4]. - Future plans include extending non-payment applications and value-added products to support diversified and international business growth [4].

Core Insights - The company, Yika Co., Ltd., reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the fiscal year 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.087 billion RMB and a profit of 73 million RMB, marking a growth of over six times compared to the previous year [1] - The overall gross profit margin improved from 18.7% in 2023 to 23.6% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 3.087 billion RMB, with a gross profit margin increase to 23.6% from 18.7% in 2023 [1] - The profit for the year was 73 million RMB, representing a growth of over 600% year-on-year [1] - In the second half of 2024, gross profit rose by 42.7% to 429 million RMB [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The core business of one-stop payment services generated a GPV of 23.4 trillion RMB, with revenue of 2.686 billion RMB and peak daily transaction volume reaching nearly 60 million transactions [1] - The gross profit margin for payment services in the second half of 2024 increased to 21.6%, leading to a rise in payment gross profit from 92.9 million RMB in the first half to 290 million RMB in the second half [1] - The contribution of value-added services, including merchant solutions and in-store e-commerce, increased from 11.8% in 2023 to 13.0% in 2024, with higher gross margins compared to payment services [1] Group 3: Merchant Solutions and E-commerce - The gross profit margin for merchant solutions remained stable at approximately 87.2%, with annual revenue of 340 million RMB [2] - The company utilized AI algorithms for precise advertising targeting and dynamic creative generation, significantly enhancing conversion rates and achieving industry-leading marketing services [2] - The in-store e-commerce business saw a strategic upgrade, resulting in a doubling of average revenue and profit contributions from merchants, with pre-revenue accounting for about 50% of in-store e-commerce revenue [2] Group 4: Operational Strategy - The company focused on refined operations and extensive AI applications, including tools for automated scene-based store construction, AI content creation, and live streaming planning, which greatly improved operational efficiency [2] - By gradually phasing out less profitable clients and concentrating on large clients, the company enhanced its full-service marketing capabilities and attracted well-known brands in key consumer sectors, leading to a continuous increase in store numbers [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.90 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by a decline in payment transaction volume (GPV), which fell by 19% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of RMB 0.82 billion, significantly below expectations [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company has seen rapid growth in its overseas business, with transaction volume increasing nearly fivefold in 2024 [1][2]. - The company is expected to return to growth in its core payment business in 2025, driven by an improving consumer sentiment and its leading position in the QR code payment sector [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 3.09 billion and a net profit of RMB 0.82 billion, with a significant non-recurring expense related to transaction fee adjustments [1][5]. - The adjusted payment fee rate for 2024 was 11.9 bps, down 1.4 bps year-on-year, while the adjusted gross margin for payment services was 17% [2][4]. Business Segments - The merchant solutions segment saw a revenue decline of 6% in 2024, with a gross margin of 87% [3]. - The in-store business is nearing breakeven, with a gross margin improvement from 80.3% in 2023 to 81.3% in 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 2.1 billion, RMB 2.4 billion, and RMB 3.3 billion respectively, reflecting a significant reduction of 53% and 60% [4][17]. - The company is valued using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with expected multiples of 16.3x PE for payment services, 5.1x PS for merchant solutions, and 2.5x PS for in-store e-commerce [4][12].