证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 创制农药行业专题 优于大市 中国创制农药有望迎来"Me too "到"Me better 农药：非专利药市场占比高，专利药盈利水平高。2024 年全球农药市场规模 约 772 亿美元，十年复合增速 2.35%。据印度作物联合会（CCFI）数据，2022 年非专利农药在全球农药市场的份额已达到历史新高 93%，而专利农药的占 比仅为 7%。目前国内农药企业主要是为国外跨国制剂企业配套生产农药原 药，行业盈利受全球农化库存周期影响大，且多数非专利农药原药面临产能 过剩问题，农药企业盈利水平低下，抗风险能力较差。与四大跨国农化巨头 相比，国内农药企业的毛利率偏低，商业模式有待升级。 核心观点 行业研究·行业专题 基础化工·农化制品 新农药创制：难度持续提升。进入 21 世纪以来全球每十年引入的新农药活 性成分数量显著下降，目前成功上市 1 个新农药品种平均需要筛选约 16 万 个化合物，耗资约 3 亿美元，耗时约 12 年，反映出新农药创制难度提升， 研发周期拉长。新农药发展方向：高效、低毒、低成本。 中国农药行业实力全球领先，已具备新农药创制基础。中国已成为全球最大 的农 ...

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

证券之星消息，12月10日农化制品板块较上一交易日上涨0.38%，亚钾国际领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3900.5，下跌0.23%。深证成指报收于13316.42，上涨0.29%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000893 | 亚第国际 | 46.94 | 2.78% | 9.01万 | | 4.16 乙 | | 002539 | 云图控股 | 10.86 | 2.26% | 13.64万 | | 1.47亿 | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 25.63 | 1.99% | 54.30万 | | 13.81亿 | | 002170 | 芭田股份 | 12.01 | 1.44% | 29.71万 ﻝ | | 3.55亿 | | 600389 | 江山股份 | 22.64 | 1.43% | 4.78万 | | 1.08亿 | | 000525 | 红太阳 | 5.85 | 1.39% | 15.60万 | | 9104.19万 | ...

草甘膦概念资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600141 | 兴发集团 | -1.76 | 1.95 | -2178.49 | | 600596 | 新安股份 | -2.65 | 2.98 | -1809.57 | | 603077 | 和邦生物 | 0.00 | 2.13 | -1291.07 | | 002258 | 利尔化学 | -2.28 | 2.14 | -1135.52 | | 000525 | 红太阳 | 0.34 | 0.91 | -259.37 | | 301665 | 泰禾股份 | -0.50 | 4.03 | -222.56 | | 603599 | 广信股份 | -0.94 | 0.68 | -214.32 | | 300927 | 江天化学 | 0.08 | 1.28 | -121.19 | | 000553 | 安道麦A | -1.46 | 0.20 | -105.61 | | 002749 | 国光股份 | -0.43 | 0.36 | 85 ...

Core Points - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. announced the authorization to dispose of shares in its associate company, Nantong Jiangtian Chemical Co., Ltd. [1] - The company plans to sell 17.3592 million shares, representing 12.02% of Jiangtian Chemical's total share capital, through various legal methods [1] - The authorized period for the share disposal is from the date of the shareholders' meeting approval until all shares are disposed of [1] Summary by Sections - **Board and Shareholder Meetings** - The 20th meeting of the 9th Board of Directors and the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting for 2025 were held on July 26 and August 22, 2025, respectively [1] - **Share Disposal Authorization** - The shareholders' meeting approved the proposal to authorize the management to dispose of 17.3592 million shares of Jiangtian Chemical [1] - The disposal methods include agreement transfer, inquiry transfer, centralized bidding, and block trading [1] - **Reduction Plan** - On September 5, 2025, the company disclosed a reduction plan to sell up to 4.3308 million shares, which is 3.00% of Jiangtian Chemical's total share capital, between September 29 and December 28, 2025 [1] - As of November 25, 2025, the company has completed the reduction of 4.3308 million shares [1]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a slight decline of 0.14% on November 26, with Jiangshan Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Chitianhua (600227) with a closing price of 2.71, up 10.16% on a trading volume of 956,900 shares and a turnover of 255 million yuan [1] - Lanfeng Biochemical (002513) rose by 2.23% to 7.80, with a turnover of 254 million yuan [1] - Yachong International (000893) increased by 1.95% to 42.32, with a turnover of 506 million yuan [1] - Jiangshan Co. (600389) was the biggest loser, down 3.08% to 21.38, with a turnover of 126 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 196 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 20.5 million yuan [2] - The overall retail investor net outflow was 920,960 yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Chitianhua (600227) had a net outflow of 50.47 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 30.60 million yuan [3] - Newyangfeng (000902) experienced a net inflow of 39.79 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 10.92 million yuan [3] - Guangxin Co. (603599) saw a net inflow of 16.48 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 15.55 million yuan [3]

根据股东大会的授权，公司于 2025 年 9 月 5 日通过《南通江天化学股份有 限公司大股东减持股份预披露公告》（公告编号：2025-039）披露了减持计划， 拟于 2025 年 9 月 29 日至 2025 年 12 月 28 日通过集中竞价或大宗交易方式合计 减持江天化学股份不超过 433.08 万股，占江天化学总股本的比例为 3.00%（以 下简称"本次减持计划"）。2025 年 10 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 25 日公司已减持 江天化学 433.08 万股，占江天化学总股本的 3.00%，公司已完成本次减持计划。 根据《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》6.1.2 的规定，上市公司发生的交易 事项产生的利润占上市公司最近一个会计年度经审计净利润的 10%以上，且绝对 金额超过 100 万元，应当及时披露。本次交易预计产生利润将达到以上披露标准， 具体收益金额以公司披露的定期报告中相关财务数据为准。本次减持计划完成后， 公司仍持有江天化学 1,302.84 万股，占江天化学总股本的 9.02%。 特此公告。 南通江山农药化工股份有限公司董事会 证券代码：600389 证券简称：江山股份 公告 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.97%, reaching 24.67 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 10.624 billion CNY as of November 17 [1] Company Overview - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. is located in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, and was established on October 18, 1990, with its listing date on January 10, 2001 [1] - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of agricultural products, mainly herbicides and insecticides, as well as chemical products, new materials, and steam from cogeneration [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: agricultural products 61.85%, chemical products 14.05%, new materials 13.95%, cogeneration products 9.40%, others 0.74%, and trade 0.01% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Taixin Fund holds Jiangshan Co., Ltd. as a top ten position, specifically Taixin Smart Quantitative Stock Mixed Fund A (013033), which held 8,900 shares, accounting for 1.74% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating profit from this holding is approximately 12,400 CNY [2] - The fund was established on May 22, 2025, with a current scale of 12.5156 million CNY and has achieved a return of 20.51% since inception [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangtian Chemical announced that Nantong Jiangshan Pesticide Chemical Co., Ltd. will reduce its shareholding by 7.218 million shares, accounting for 5.00% of the total share capital, from June 6, 2025, to November 13, 2025 [1] Group 1 - Nantong Jiangshan Pesticide Chemical Co., Ltd. will decrease its shareholding from 15.00% to 10.00% after the completion of the share reduction [1] - As of the date of the report, the share reduction plan has not been fully implemented, and there are no plans for share repurchase in the next 12 months [1] - The company will continue to fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price this year, with a 70.50% rise, despite a slight decline in recent trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jiangshan Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 4.516 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.20% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 425 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 147.91% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.05% to 19,100, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 9.95% to 22,509 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.693 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 384 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 14, Jiangshan Co., Ltd. saw its stock price rise by 2.11%, reaching 23.70 yuan per share, with a trading volume of approximately 93.08 million yuan [1]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 10.206 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.93% [1]. Business Overview - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of agricultural chemicals, including herbicides and insecticides, as well as chemical products and new materials [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes 61.85% from agricultural products, 14.05% from chemical products, 13.95% from new materials, and 9.40% from thermal power products [1]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, major shareholders include China Europe Fund and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with notable changes in their holdings [3].