草甘膦&草铵膦行业近况交流 20250722 摘要 草甘膦价格受多重因素影响持续上涨，目前价格在 24,800 至 25,000 元/吨，部分中间商报价高达 26,000 元/吨，预计年底可能涨至 27,000 元/吨并保持稳定。库存大幅下降，从 8 万多吨降至 4 万多吨，进一步支 撑价格。 国内草甘膦生产厂家开工率维持高位，普遍在 85%以上，但部分厂家因 产品指标调整和环保因素出现阶段性停产或减产，如兴发集团、江山股 份等，导致实际产量有所下降。 草甘膦需求端稳健增长，国内外订单充足，厂家订单已排至 9 月下旬， 美国客户需求增加，叠加北半球和国内需求释放预期，未来需求有望持 续增长。 拜耳草甘膦致癌诉讼案悬而未决，导致其产能大幅削减，影响海外产能 开工率，间接推动草甘膦价格上涨。拜耳计划通过外包方式继续生产， 短期内不会退出北美市场。 草铵膦价格走弱，主要由于目标客户群体差异和国内外产能相对较少， 客户倾向于囤积草甘膦，导致草铵膦采购量减少，短期内提价意愿不明 显。 草甘膦价格上涨的主要原因包括墨西哥 6 到 8 月份春耕季节订单增加，以及拜 耳和孟山都 37 万吨草甘膦致癌争议导致部分客户将订单转移 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Group 1 - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting focused on the construction of a national unified market and the high-quality development of the marine economy, leading to strong performance in related sectors [1] - From July 1 to July 10, the photovoltaic index rose by 3.97%, the green power index increased by 4.08%, and the marine economy index peaked at 7.99%, all outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index during the same period [1] - The chemical industry, as a fundamental sector of the national economy, is expected to benefit from national strategic planning [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the governance of "involution-style" competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity, initiating a new round of capacity reduction [1] - On July 2, multiple contracts for polysilicon futures hit the limit, with the main contract closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, reaching a recent high; silicon material prices also rebounded, with the average transaction price for N-type re-investment material at 34,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.87% [1] - CITIC Futures analysis indicated that this round of price increase is a correction of previous overselling, as prices had fallen below the cash costs of leading enterprises, driving profit recovery expectations [1] Group 3 - The marine economy is projected to surpass 10 trillion yuan in national marine production value in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in the first quarter of this year [1] - The deep-sea technology sector is expected to have broad prospects, with predictions that marine production value will exceed 13 trillion yuan by 2025, and deep-sea technology industries will account for over 25% [1] - Various regions are actively planning, with cities like Qingdao, Hainan, and Xiamen focusing on marine technology innovation and deep-sea equipment, while Tianfeng Securities suggests paying attention to opportunities in deep-sea materials, equipment, and intelligent applications [1] Group 4 - Starting in 2024, China will implement a quota system for HFCs, controlling over 80% of the global quota, creating a unique business model [2] - Benefiting from favorable factors related to refrigerant quotas, companies in the refrigerant sector, including Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Yonghe Co., Ltd., and Dongyangguang, are all expected to report significant increases in their mid-year results, with four companies seeing growth exceeding 120% [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from the "one certificate, one product" policy, with companies like Jiangshan Co., Ltd. and Lier Chemical also expected to report increased mid-year results, indicating a shift towards scale and intensive transformation in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangshan Chemical's strong performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to strategic adjustments in product structure and effective cost control, leading to significant profit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.65% to 110.78% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains is projected to be between 240 million and 300 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 50.07% to 87.59% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, and a net profit of 156 million yuan, up 89.10% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has optimized its product structure and increased sales of high-margin products, which has contributed to its profitability [1][2]. - Jiangshan Chemical's strategy aligns with the industry's structural recovery, as demand for high-margin products rises amid a shift towards efficiency and sustainability in the agricultural chemical sector [2]. Group 3: Market Operations - The company has sold 4.3308 million shares of Jiangtian Chemical, which is expected to generate a profit that will be disclosed in future financial reports [3]. - The sale of shares is seen as a way to enhance short-term profits, providing funds for further investment in core business areas, technology development, and market expansion [3].

证券代码：600389 证券简称：江山股份 公告编号：临 2025—034 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 南通江山农药化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 30 日 召开了第九届董事会第十九次会议，审议通过了《关于授权减持参股公司股票的 议案》，董事会同意授权经营层通过证券交易所集中竞价、大宗交易方式出售南 通江天化学股份有限公司（以下简称"江天化学"）433.08 万股，占江天化学总 股本的 3%（具体内容详见公司 2025 年 5 月 1 日在《中国证券报》、《上海证券报》、 上海证券交易所网站披露的《江山股份关于授权减持参股公司股票的公告》（临 2025-028）。 根据《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》6.1.2 的规定，上市公司发生的交易 事项，产生的利润占上市公司最近一个会计年度经审计净利润的 10%以上，且绝 对金额超过 100 万元，应当及时披露。截至 2025 年 7 月 9 日，公司已出售江天 化学 433.08 万股，占江天化学总股本的 3%，本次交易预计产生利润将达 ...

Group 1 - Aishuo Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 170 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net loss of 410 million to 520 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1] - Changcheng Military Industry anticipates a net loss of 25 million to 29.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net loss of 35 million to 41 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1] - Changyuan Donggu expects a net profit of 155 million to 180 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.65% to 88.88% [1] Group 2 - Beifang Navigation forecasts a net profit of 105 million to 120 million yuan for the first half of 2025, turning around from a loss of 74.2168 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Xizi Clean Energy expects a net profit of 130 million to 180 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 47.40% to 62.01% compared to the same period last year [4] - Tianbao Infrastructure anticipates a net profit of 90 million to 130 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1581.80% to 2329.27% [4] Group 3 - Taiping Bird expects a net profit of approximately 77.7 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 55% compared to the same period last year [6] - Xibu Chuangye forecasts a net profit of approximately 295 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 88.99% compared to the same period last year [8] - Zhengbang Technology expects a net profit of 190 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 249.03% to 264.72% [9] Group 4 - Songzhi Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 140 million to 170 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.58% to 86.49% [10] - Hailide expects a net profit of 280 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.65% to 63.47% [12] - Chenhua Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 48.8176 million to 56.6284 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% to 45% [13] Group 5 - Yuanlin Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 68 million to 92 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net loss of 70 million to 95 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [14] - Chuanhua Zhili anticipates a net profit of 500 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.78% to 90.06% [15] - Longyuan Technology expects a net profit of 26 million to 31 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 116.61% to 158.26% [17] Group 6 - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.65% to 110.78% [32] - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 600 million to 640 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 100.73% to 114.12% [33] - Zhongyan Chemical's subsidiary signed a 6.809 billion yuan mining rights transfer contract [35]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. has sold 3% of its stake in Jiangtian Chemical, which is expected to generate significant profit for the company [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Transaction Details - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. announced the sale of 4.3308 million shares of Jiangtian Chemical, representing 3% of the total share capital [1] - The transaction is anticipated to yield profits exceeding 10% of the company's audited net profit for the most recent fiscal year, with an absolute amount surpassing 1 million yuan [1] Remaining Holdings - Following the sale, Jiangshan Co., Ltd. retains 17.3592 million shares in Jiangtian Chemical, which constitutes 12.02% of the total share capital [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the equity change report of Nantong Jiangshan Pesticide Chemical Co., Ltd, indicating that Sichuan Leshan Fuhua Crop Protection Technology Investment Co., Ltd has reduced its shareholding to below 5% [1][19][20] - The report states that Fuhua Technology's shareholding decreased from 9.67% to 4.99998%, resulting in it no longer being a major shareholder [19][20] - The equity change was executed through block trading and centralized bidding, with a total of 21,284,827 shares being sold [20][21] Group 2 - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of between 300 million to 360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.65% to 110.78% [10][11] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 240 million to 300 million yuan, indicating a growth of 50.07% to 87.59% compared to the previous year [11][12] - The increase in profit is attributed to adjustments in product structure and enhanced sales efforts in key products and regions, alongside effective cost control measures [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes important announcements from various listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, providing insights for investors regarding operational updates, stock performance, and significant corporate actions. Group 1: Company Announcements - Huaguang Huaneng's stock has experienced five consecutive trading limit increases, with a trading volume of 29.41% over the last five days, indicating potential irrational speculation, although the company's fundamentals remain stable [3]. - Andeli's actual controller Wang An transferred 90% of the shares of BVI Ping An to his daughter Wang Meng, but this transfer does not affect the company's governance structure or control [5]. - Singshan Co. received a court notice regarding the judicial disposal of 4.26 million shares, accounting for 0.19% of the total share capital, but this is not expected to impact daily operations [6]. - Three Gorges Energy reported a total power generation of 39.314 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.85% year-on-year [7]. - New Zhonggang's stock has seen four consecutive trading limits, with no significant media reports or market rumors affecting its price [8]. - ST Yazhen's stock was suspended for one trading day due to a tender offer by its controlling shareholder, with a total of 55.1779 million shares involved [9]. - Zhongli Co. plans to invest 478 million yuan in a smart logistics equipment project [11]. - Zhuoran Co. approved the sale of 95% equity in a subsidiary for 723 million yuan, which does not constitute a related party transaction [12]. - Jerry Co. received a project award for a natural gas booster station worth approximately 850 million USD [13]. - Qujiang Cultural Tourism plans to publicly transfer 38% equity in a subsidiary valued at approximately 22.98 million yuan [14]. - Foshan Technology intends to publicly transfer 100% equity of a subsidiary with a starting price of 180 million yuan [15]. Group 2: Performance Forecasts - Xianda Co. expects a net profit increase of 2443.43% to 2834.73% in the first half of 2025, driven by rising product prices and improved cost control [25]. - Muyuan Co. anticipates a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39% due to increased pig sales and lower costs [26]. - Jiangshan Co. forecasts a net profit increase of 75.65% to 110.78% in the first half of 2025, supported by product optimization and cost control [28]. - Chenguang Bio's net profit is expected to rise by 102.33% to 132.38%, primarily due to improved market conditions for its cottonseed business [29]. - Xinlian Electronics predicts a net profit of 166 million to 198 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [30]. - Wohua Pharmaceutical expects a net profit increase of 233.89% to 378.27% due to market adaptation and cost control measures [31]. - Yonghe Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 126.30% to 148.49% driven by rising refrigerant prices [32]. - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals expects a net profit increase of approximately 52% due to the acquisition of a stake in a subsidiary [34]. - AVIC Heavy Machinery forecasts a net profit decline of about 33.29% due to falling product prices [35]. - Jingneng Real Estate expects a net loss of 190 million to 210 million yuan in the first half of 2025 due to reduced scale and increased expenses [36]. Group 3: Major Contracts - Fengfan Co. won a bid for a project worth approximately 337 million yuan from the Southern Power Grid [37]. - Longjian Co. was part of a consortium that won a project bid worth 362 million yuan for infrastructure construction [38].

Group 1: Company Announcements - Huayin Power's stock has seen a significant short-term increase, with a cumulative rise of 79.82% since July 1, 2025, which is substantially higher than the industry and Shanghai Composite Index [5] - Zhongyan Chemical's subsidiary acquired natural soda mining rights for 6.80866 billion yuan [6] - Shudao Equipment has terminated the acquisition of a 65.43% stake in Keyi Gas [10] - New Link Electronics expects a net profit of 166 million to 198 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 41.2841 million yuan in the same period last year [12] Group 2: Profit Forecasts - Xian Da Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 2443.43% to 2834.73%, projecting 130 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [2] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals expects a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 52% increase from the previous year [3] - Yonghe Co. forecasts a net profit of 255 million to 280 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 126.30% to 148.49% [4] - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism projects a net profit of 90 million to 97 million yuan, an increase of 51.44% to 63.22% [5] - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 600 million to 640 million yuan, a growth of 100.73% to 114.12% [6] - Jiangshan Co. anticipates a net profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.65% to 110.78% [6] - Zhiwei Intelligent expects a net profit of 91.98 million to 112 million yuan, a growth of 62.85% to 99.06% [9] - Wanliyang forecasts a net profit of 270 million to 290 million yuan, an increase of 46.68% to 57.55% [11] - Wohua Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 37 million to 53 million yuan, a significant increase of 233.89% to 378.27% [14] - Chenguang Biological anticipates a net profit of 202 million to 232 million yuan, a growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [15] - Muyuan Foods expects a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 924.6% to 973.39% [15] - New Beiyang forecasts a net profit of 34.7 million to 38.2 million yuan, a growth of 100% to 120% [16]