海外收入持续高增，地区结构优化。随着欧美、澳新、拉美、非洲、印度等新兴区域的市场突破， 海外市场布局更加多元化，区域销售结构不断优化，各区域市场协同发展，呈现"多点开花"接续高速增 长态势，2024 年海外销售收入233.8 亿元，同比+30.58%，收入占比达51.4%，同比+13.37pct。 投资建议：考虑到公司各项业务发展势头较好，我们预计公司2025-2027归母净利润分别为 50.62/63.64/74.37 亿元，对应PE 分别是13x/11x/9x，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：国内工程机械周期性下行的风险；海外市场拓展不及预期的风险；新业务发展不及预期 的风险。 分产品来看，起重机、混凝土略有下滑，高空机械、农机稳步增长。2024 年公司起重机械实现营 业收入147.86 亿元，同比-23.35%，毛利率32.41%，同比+1.37 pct；混凝土机械实现营业收入80.13 亿 元，同比-6.8%，毛利率22.68%，同比-0.24 pct；高空机械实现营业收入68.33 亿元，同比+19.74%，毛 利率29.71%，同比+7.05 pct；土方机械实现营业收入66.7 亿元，同比+0.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zoomlion's domestic revenue declined over 20% last year, while overseas sales accounted for more than half of total revenue, with expectations for stable growth this year [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zoomlion reported revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%. Basic earnings per share were 0.41 yuan, down 4.65% year-on-year [3]. - In Q4, revenue was 11.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.05%, and net profit was 381 million yuan, down 41.42% [3]. - The company's overseas revenue grew by 30.58% to 23.38 billion yuan, increasing its share of total revenue by 13.37 percentage points to 51.41%. Domestic revenue fell over 24% due to the impact of the real estate sector [3][4]. Product Performance - Revenue from main products included: - Crane machinery: 14.786 billion yuan, down 23.35% - Concrete machinery: 8.013 billion yuan, down 6.8% - Earth-moving machinery: 6.671 billion yuan, up 0.34% - Aerial work machinery: 6.833 billion yuan, up 19.74% - Agricultural machinery: 4.65 billion yuan, up 122.29% [3]. Market Outlook - The domestic engineering machinery industry is in a bottoming adjustment phase due to the continued downturn in real estate, while overseas market demand is expanding rapidly [4]. - The agricultural machinery overseas market is characterized by a dual-track growth of emerging markets and upgrades in mature markets, with new markets and green technology being core growth points [4]. Operational Highlights - Zoomlion sold 114,001 units of manufacturing equipment last year, an increase of 18.72% [5]. - The company has established a presence in over 40 key countries globally, with coverage in nearly 200 countries and major cities [5]. - The engineering machinery export market is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by strong demand in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [5]. Dividend Information - For 2024, Zoomlion plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [5]. - Since its listing, the company has distributed dividends 25 times, totaling approximately 26.3 billion yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of about 43% [5]. Stock Information - As of March 26, Zoomlion's stock closed at 7.71 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 66.907 billion yuan [6].

直击业绩说明会 | 中联重科去年传统板块收入同比 下滑 公司董秘：已触底，今年有望驶入增长轨道 整体来看，2024年中联重科实现营业收入454.78亿元，同比下降3.39%；归母净利润35.20亿元，同比增 长0.41%。其中，境外收入233.8亿元，首超境内收入（220.98亿元）。 传统板块下滑较大，称已培育第二增长曲线 根据中联重科年报披露，传统产品中，去年混凝土机械收入80.13亿元，同比减少6.80%，收入占比为 17.62%，减少0.65个百分点；起重机械收入147.86亿元，同比减少23.35%，收入占比32.51%，减少8.47 个百分点。 在国内工程机械市场低迷的背景下，公司2025年业绩增长支撑来自何处？陶兆波介绍称，公司全力加速 向多元化、全球化、数字化转型，积极培育新的增长曲线，这些转型举措显著增强了公司发展的稳定 性，让企业进入非周期、可持续的发展通道。 多元化方面，据陶兆波介绍，中联重科大力培育了土方机械、高空机械、农业机械、矿山机械等第二增 长曲线，截至2024年末，第二增长曲线的业务收入占比已超过48%。同时，公司也布局了具身智能等未 来产业作为公司的第三增长曲线。 不过，《每 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.84, compared to the last closing price of 7.82 [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and there is optimism regarding its globalization and diversification strategies [1][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 454.78 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.20 billion, a slight increase of 0.41% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s three traditional product lines—concrete machinery, engineering hoisting machinery, and construction hoisting machinery—are performing steadily, with overall export sales growing by over 35% year-on-year [5]. - Emerging industries are rapidly growing, contributing to new growth areas, with significant increases in sales for various machinery categories, including a 122% increase in agricultural machinery sales [5]. International Strategy - The company has firmly advanced its international strategy, with overseas revenue reaching 233.80 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [6]. - The company has established a presence in over 40 key countries and has built more than 400 various outlets in major global cities [6]. Profitability and Operational Quality - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 28.17% and 8.81%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points [7]. - The company has improved its operational quality, with a significant reduction in receivables and inventory, and a comprehensive collection rate of 120.29%, up by 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 530.65 billion, 624.63 billion, and 718.32 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be 50.23 billion, 63.01 billion, and 76.16 billion [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (000157) with a target price of 9.84, compared to the last closing price of 7.82 [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and there is optimism regarding its globalization and diversification strategies [1][7]. - The report highlights a decline in revenue for 2024, amounting to 454.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.41% to 35.20 billion yuan [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.17% and a net margin of 8.81%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points, respectively [7]. - The company’s accounts receivable decreased by 10.26 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.16%, and inventory decreased by 1.76 billion yuan, a decline of 7.24% [7]. - The comprehensive collection rate reached 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 530.65 billion yuan, 624.63 billion yuan, and 718.32 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 50.23 billion yuan, 63.01 billion yuan, and 76.16 billion yuan [8]. - The expected revenue growth rates for these years are 16.7%, 17.7%, and 15.0%, respectively [8]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s traditional product lines, including concrete machinery and engineering cranes, are performing steadily, with overall export sales growing by over 35% [5]. - Emerging industries are also expanding, with significant growth in earth-moving machinery, agricultural machinery, and other new business segments [5]. - The company’s international strategy is progressing, with overseas revenue reaching 233.80 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [6]. Stock Data - The total share capital is 8.678 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 678.62 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has seen a 12-month high of 9.53 yuan and a low of 5.72 yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The company's overseas revenue continued to grow rapidly, increasing by 31% year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 51% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [2][11] - The domestic revenue in 2024 is expected to decline due to impacts from concrete machinery and lifting machinery, but recovery is anticipated in 2025 [2][11] - The company has seen improvements in gross margins across multiple product lines, including lifting machinery and earth-moving machinery [2][11] - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with traditional segments expected to stabilize and new businesses contributing to growth, supported by an increasingly globalized layout [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.520 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year [6][11] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 11.092 billion yuan, down 4.05% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.381 billion yuan, down 41.42% year-on-year [6][11] Overseas Business Growth - The company’s overseas business continues to expand, with significant growth in regions such as Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [2][11] - The export sales of major product lines, including concrete machinery and lifting machinery, have increased by over 35% year-on-year [11] Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic market faced challenges in 2024, with significant declines in the sales of various lifting machinery types [11] - However, there is an expectation for recovery in 2025, particularly in the demand for concrete mixers and cranes driven by new energy trends [11] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company’s overall gross margin improved in 2024, benefiting from structural optimization and cost reduction efforts [11] - A cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares is proposed for 2024, totaling approximately 2.6 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 74% [11] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.005 billion yuan and 6.076 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14 times and 11 times [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [11][17]. Core Views - The company's revenue is projected to slightly decline by 3.39% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to a downturn in the domestic cycle, while overseas markets are expected to grow by over 30%, with revenue contribution surpassing 50% [1][9]. - The company is experiencing stable improvement in profitability, with a 14% year-on-year increase in net profit after excluding share-based payment expenses [1][9]. - The engineering machinery industry is anticipated to witness a simultaneous upward trend in both domestic and overseas markets, driven by the company's ongoing diversification and internationalization efforts [1][10]. Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue is expected to be 454.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year [2][3]. - Revenue breakdown by business segments includes: - Concrete machinery: 80.13 billion yuan, down 6.80% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.68% [3]. - Lifting machinery: 147.86 billion yuan, down 23.35% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.41% [3]. - Earth-moving machinery: 66.71 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.18% [3]. - Aerial work machinery: 68.33 billion yuan, up 19.74% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.71% [3]. - Agricultural machinery: 46.50 billion yuan, up 122.29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.25% [3]. Profitability Summary - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 35.20 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [2][9]. - After excluding share-based payment impacts, the adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.72% [9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 28.17%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is expected to rise to 8.81%, up 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [9][12]. Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in domestic demand, with various investment areas such as rural, water conservancy, and renewable energy showing positive trends [10]. - The overseas market is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 15%, particularly in regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and Europe [10]. - The company is actively pursuing diversification, with its revenue from emerging sectors exceeding 48%, reducing reliance on traditional real estate-related businesses [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion is maintained as BUY, despite a downward revision of the target price to RMB9.9 for A-shares and HK$7.4 for H-shares [1][5][6]. Core Views - The 2024 results of Zoomlion were below expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in overseas revenue growth, a reduction in other income, and an increase in inventory turnover days. The company is still viewed positively for its structural overseas growth strategy, particularly in emerging economies [1][4]. - The management is confident in reducing inventory levels in 2025, and there are buying opportunities following the post-results pullback [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, revenue decreased by 3.4% YoY to RMB45.478 billion, while adjusted net profit slightly declined by 1.3% YoY to RMB3.521 billion. The forecast for FY25 and FY26 earnings has been revised down by 7% and 8% respectively [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown for 4Q24 showed a 4% YoY decline to RMB11.1 billion, with domestic revenue dropping by 18% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 14% YoY [4][7]. - The blended gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points YoY to 27.5%, driven by higher margins in overseas markets [4][7]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The revenue forecast for FY25 is set at RMB52.999 billion, with expected growth of 16.5% YoY, followed by RMB61.848 billion in FY26 and RMB69.277 billion in FY27 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase to RMB4.177 billion in FY25, RMB4.705 billion in FY26, and RMB5.229 billion in FY27, reflecting a growth trajectory despite recent challenges [2][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Zoomlion has low exposure to the domestic property sector, with only 13% of total sales in 2024 related to property. The company is focusing on infrastructure, wind power installation, and chemical plant construction for growth [4][6]. - Management plans to accelerate overseas market expansion and continue focusing on earth-working, mining, and agricultural machinery as growth drivers [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for A-shares is based on a 2025E P/E multiple of 19.5x, reflecting a historical average, while the H-share target price incorporates a 30% discount [5][6]. - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.5x in FY24 to 11.3x in FY25, indicating a more attractive valuation for investors [2][5].

中联重科（000157.SZ） 2024 年毛利率提升，公司经营趋势向好，股东回报优秀 公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年实现营业收入 454.78 亿元，同比减少 3.39%； 归母净利润 35.20 亿元，同比增长 0.41%（剔除股份支付费用影响后净利润同比增长 18.39%）；扣非归母净利润 25.54 亿元，同比减少 5.7%。2024 年单 4 季度营业收入 110.92 亿元，同比减少 4.05%；归母净利润 3.81 亿元，同比减少 41.42%；扣非归母 净利润 3.64 亿元，同比增加 4.86%。公司 2024 年毛利率为 28.17%，2024 年净利率 8.81%，同比提升 0.8pct。2024 年 4 季度毛利率为 27.53%，同比提升 0.6pct；2024 年净利率 4.66%，同比降低 1.5pct。2024 年公司毛利率提升明显，表明公司经营情况 趋势向好，Q4 净利率下降主要原因是受汇率波动等影响，财务费用同比增加 1.74 亿 元，同时资产处置收益同比减少 2.53 亿元。此外，公司 2024 年向全体股东每 10 股派 发现金红利 3.00 元（含税）， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 45.478 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.17%, indicating an improvement in operational performance, despite a decline in net profit margin in Q4 due to increased financial costs and reduced asset disposal gains [1]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit over the next few years, with projections of 5 billion yuan in 2025, 6.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 42%, 21%, and 16% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4% [5]. - The gross margin improved to 28.17%, while the net profit margin was 8.81%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The earthmoving machinery segment generated revenue of 6.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.34% and a gross margin of 30.2%, up 2.67 percentage points [2]. - The high-altitude operation machinery segment saw a revenue increase of 19.7% year-on-year, reaching 6.83 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 29.7%, up 7.75 percentage points [3]. - The agricultural machinery segment experienced a remarkable growth of 122.3%, achieving revenue of 4.65 billion yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic and international markets, particularly in the earthmoving and concrete machinery sectors, with significant growth in export sales [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product portfolio and expanding its market share in both domestic and overseas markets, with a notable increase in international sales [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand and strong growth in overseas markets, which could lead to a higher valuation and growth premium [4]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to leverage its strengths in traditional product lines while developing new growth engines in emerging sectors [4].