Core Viewpoint - Jiangnan Chemical (002226) announced that its major shareholder, Zijin Investment, plans to issue non-publicly offered exchangeable bonds backed by a portion of its A-share holdings in the company, aiming to raise up to RMB 700 million [1] Group 1: Exchangeable Bonds - The proposed exchangeable bonds will have a term of no more than 5 years [1] - Holders of the exchangeable bonds will have the right to convert their bonds into A-shares of the company during the exchange period, subject to certain conditions [1] Group 2: Shareholding Structure - Zijin Investment and its concerted parties, including Zijin Mining (601899) and Zijinan (Xiamen) Investment Partnership, collectively hold 562 million shares of the company, accounting for 21.23% of the total share capital [1] - The issuance of these exchangeable bonds will not result in a change of the company's controlling shareholder or actual controller [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the transfer of 32 million shares (1.21% of total shares) from Guangxi Jianhua Machinery Co., Ltd. to China Weapon Industry Group's subsidiary, Zhongbing Investment Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The share transfer was completed on June 18, 2025, and the shareholding structure of the company remains unchanged post-transfer [1][2] - The major shareholders' holdings before and after the transfer are detailed, showing that the controlling shareholder and actual controller remain the same [1] Group 2 - The transfer complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no violation of existing commitments by the transferor [2] - The transaction is not expected to harm the interests of the company or other shareholders, nor will it affect the company's governance structure or future operations [2]

证券代码：002226 证券简称：江南化工 公告编号:2025-040 | 股东名称 | 本次转让前 | | 本次转让后 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持股数量（股） | 持股比例 | 持股数量（股） | 持股比例 | | 特能集团 | 575,753,625 | 21.74% | 575,753,625 | 21.74% | | 北方公司 | 170,375,085 | 6.43% | 170,375,085 | 6.43% | | 奥信香港 | 159,682,102 | 6.03% | 159,682,102 | 6.03% | | 建华机械 | 125,448,721 | 4.74% | 93,448,721 | 3.53% | | 中兵投资 | - | - | 32,000,000 | 1.21% | | 合计 | 1,031,259,533 | 38.93% | 1,031,259,533 | 38.93% | 安徽江南化工股份有限公司 关于股东权益变动暨股份完成过户登记的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误 ...

江南化工（002226）公告，公司控股股东的一致行动人建华机械将其持有的3200万股(占公司总股本的 1.21%)以非公开协议转让方式转让给中兵投资，股份已于2025年6月18日完成过户登记手续。本次转让 完成后，公司控股股东及其一致行动人合计持股数量和比例保持不变，公司控股股东和实际控制人保持 不变。 ...

证券代码：002226 证券简称：江南化工 公告编号:2025-039 安徽江南化工股份有限公司 2024 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 安徽江南化工股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"本公司")2024 年年度 权益分派方案已获 2025 年 5 月 8 日召开的 2024 年度股东大会审议通过。2024 年年度权益分派方案为:以公司 2024 年 12 月 31 日的总股本 2,648,922,855 股为 基数，向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 0.65 元人民币(含税)，不送红股,不以 公积金转增股本。 一、权益分派方案 本公司2024年年度权益分派方案为:以公司现有总股本2,648,922,855股为 基数，向全体股东每 10 股派 0.650000 元人民币现金（含税;扣税后，通过深股 通持有股份的香港市场投资者、境外机构（含 QFII、RQFII）以及持有首发前限 售股的个人和证券投资基金每 10 股派 0.585000 元;持有首发后限售股、股权激 励限售股及无限售流通股的个人股息红利税实行差别化税率征收，本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pearl pigment market, highlighting its growth potential and investment opportunities [13][14]. Core Insights - The pearl pigment market is characterized by its small and fragmented nature, with significant profit potential driven by new consumer applications in cosmetics, automotive, and batteries. The global market for pearl pigments is projected to grow from 23.5 billion CNY in 2023 to 44 billion CNY by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2030 [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local operational capabilities for companies looking to expand into Africa, particularly in East Africa, where economic growth and political stability are improving [14]. - The upcoming China-Central Asia Summit is expected to create investment opportunities in Central Asia, with a focus on companies like Xinjiang Communications Construction and Qing Song Jianhua [15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The pearl pigment market is expected to benefit from increased demand in cosmetics and automotive sectors, with a significant portion of the market being high-end [13]. - The report suggests monitoring the acquisition activities in the pearl pigment sector, particularly the acquisition of a stake in a major Korean manufacturer by a specific company [13]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices have decreased to 360 CNY per ton, with a national average shipment rate of 45.7% [16]. - The average price of float glass has dropped to 1229.90 CNY per ton, reflecting a decline in demand and increased inventory levels [16]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by the construction materials sector, including fluctuating prices and demand pressures [16]. National Subsidy Tracking - Recent adjustments to national subsidy policies for home appliances have led to limited supply and increased competition among consumers [17]. - The report anticipates a potential restart of subsidy programs due to rapid consumption of existing funds [17]. Significant Changes - A company plans to invest in a wind turbine blade manufacturing facility in Uzbekistan, with a total investment of approximately 25.24 million USD [18]. - Another company is acquiring a 51% stake in a chemical firm for about 170 million CNY, enhancing its market position [18]. Market Performance - The construction materials index has shown a decline of 2.14% in the past week, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass experiencing larger drops [20]. - The report notes that the cement market is under pressure due to seasonal factors, with expectations of continued price adjustments [29].

本报记者徐一鸣 值得一提的是，为保护上市公司及全体股东利益，江南化工与昌龙化工签署了《业绩承诺补偿协议》。 根据协议，昌龙化工承诺峨边国昌在2025年度、2026年度和2027年度累计实现的净利润总额不低于 6307.48万元。若业绩承诺期间内峨边国昌实际净利润小于业绩承诺期内的净利润，昌龙化工应对江南 化工以现金方式进行补偿。 上海大学悉尼工商学院讲师王雨婷在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，若收购时没有明确业绩承诺， 当被收购公司业绩不及预期时，收购方则面临着较大风险，进而影响整体收益和战略目标实现。 支培元认为，若峨边国昌能够完成承诺的净利润，将直接为江南化工带来利润增长，提升公司整体的经 营业绩和盈利能力。从长期来看，有利于形成协同发展、互惠互利的高质量发展局面。 从行业角度看，《"十四五"民用爆炸物品行业安全发展规划》提出，到2025年，民爆行业安全水平再上 新台阶，创新能力得到新提升，结构调整取得新成效，发展质量达到新水平，治理效能得到新提高。其 中，生产企业（集团）数量由76家减少到50家以内。 王雨婷表示，在政策支持下，市场资源将向优质企业靠拢，民爆行业的集中度将会进一步提升，行业竞 争格局也会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangnan Chemical has signed an acquisition agreement to purchase 51% of Sichuan Ebian Guochang Chemical Co., Ltd. for 170.34 million yuan, aiming to expand its market share in the southwestern region of China and enhance its profitability through the integration of quality civil explosive assets [1][2]. Group 1 - The acquisition involves cash payment of 170.34 million yuan for 51% equity in Ebian Guochang, which specializes in gel emulsified explosives and modified ammonium oil explosives, primarily serving the Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces [1]. - Ebian Guochang has an approved production capacity of 35,000 tons per year for industrial explosives, but operations are currently suspended due to relocation and construction, with production expected to resume by December 2024 [1][2]. - The company plans to complete the transfer of civil explosive assets, personnel, and related licenses to Ebian Guochang by early 2025, with expectations of turning a profit as the market recovers [2]. Group 2 - Jiangnan Chemical has signed a performance commitment compensation agreement with Changlong Chemical, ensuring that Ebian Guochang achieves a cumulative net profit of no less than 63.07 million yuan over the years 2025 to 2027 [3]. - Following the acquisition, Jiangnan Chemical will consolidate Ebian Guochang into its financial statements, which is anticipated to enhance the company's operational performance and profitability [3]. - The acquisition aligns with national policies for restructuring the civil explosive industry and aims to leverage market opportunities in Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan, supporting the company's strategic development in the southwestern region [4].

Group 1 - The report is an asset evaluation for the acquisition decision of Sichuan Ebian Guochang Chemical Co., Ltd. by Anhui Jiangnan Chemical Co., Ltd. [1][5] - The evaluation aims to provide a reference for the value of the shareholders' equity after the simulated asset injection into Guochang Chemical Co. [1][6] - The evaluation method includes the asset-based approach and the income approach, with the final valuation determined using the income approach [1][9] Group 2 - The assessed value of the shareholders' equity after the simulated asset injection is 337 million yuan, compared to a book value of approximately 139.2 million yuan, indicating a significant increase in value [1][5][9] - The evaluation date is set as October 31, 2024, and the report is valid for one year from this date [1][6] - The financial statements used for the evaluation were audited by Tianjian Accounting Firm, reflecting the financial status of Guochang Chemical Co. as of the evaluation date [1][6][9] Group 3 - Guochang Chemical Co. was established on March 24, 2022, with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sichuan Ebian Changlong Chemical Co., Ltd. [5][6] - The company is involved in the production of civil explosive materials and is currently in the trial production phase of a relocation project [5][6] - The relocation project is expected to enhance production capacity significantly, with a planned annual output of 29,000 tons of industrial explosives [5][6]