Group 1 - The company Jiangnan Chemical plans to acquire a 51% stake in Sichuan Ebian Guochang Chemical Co., Ltd. for a cash price of 170 million yuan [1] - The assessed value of the total equity of Guochang Chemical as of October 31, 2024, is 337 million yuan, with the transaction price determined after negotiation [1] - Following the completion of the transaction, Guochang Chemical will become a subsidiary of Jiangnan Chemical [1] Group 2 - Guochang Chemical's main products include gel emulsified explosives and modified ammonium oil explosives, primarily sold in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces [1] - The company has obtained an industrial explosive production license from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology with a capacity of 35,000 tons per year [1] - For the period from January to April 2025, Guochang Chemical achieved a revenue of 13.79 million yuan and a net profit of 848,100 yuan [1]

中国资产评估协会 资产评估业务报告备案回执 | 报告编码: | 3133020001311101202500050 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 合同编号: | H-SH24-000069 | | | 报告类型: | 法定评估业务资产评估报告 | | | 报告文号: | 坤元评报(2025) 1-34号 | | | 报告名称: | | 安徽江南化工股份有限公司收购股权决策涉及的四川省峨边国昌 化工有限责任公司模拟资产注入后的股东全部权益价值评估项目 | | 资产评估报告 | | | | 评估报告日: | 2025年04月23日 | | | 评估机构名称: | 坤元资产评估有限公司 | | | 签名人员: | 韩桂华 (资产评估师) | 正式会员 编号:33030090 | | 丁兆言 | (资产评估师) | 正式会员 编号:31180054 | | | 韩桂华、丁兆言已实名认可 | | | 评估结论: | 337,000,000.00元 | | | | and a second a market in a local de la province | | (可扫描二维码查询备案业务信息) ...

Group 1 - A-share market experiences a surge in short-term trading related to the civil explosives concept, with companies such as Poly United, Yipuli, and Gaozheng Minbao hitting the daily limit up [1] - Chongqing Port and Huhua Co. saw their stock prices increase by over 5%, indicating strong market interest [1] - Kailong Co. and Jiangnan Chemical also experienced upward movement in their stock prices, reflecting a broader trend in the sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the civil explosives sector is experiencing a significant surge, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up [1] - Companies such as Poly United (002037), Yipuli (002096), and Gaozheng Civil Explosives (002827) have hit the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies like Huhua Co. (003002), Kailong Co. (002783), and Jiangnan Chemical (002226) are also seeing upward movement in their stock prices, suggesting a broader trend in the sector [1] Group 2 - There is a notable influx of dark pool capital into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest and potential for further price appreciation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mining explosives industry, highlighting ongoing mergers and acquisitions that are expected to enhance the scale and bargaining power of leading companies [4][5]. Core Insights - The mining explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with leading enterprises expected to significantly increase their scale and bargaining power. The industry is characterized by high regulatory barriers and a low level of marketization, with ongoing government initiatives since 2000 aimed at supply-side reforms through mergers and restructuring [4][6]. - Demand for mining explosives is being driven by high mineral prices, with over 70% of demand coming from the mining sector. The integration of mining services and explosives is seen as a key growth strategy, with significant market potential remaining [7][8]. - Regions such as Xinjiang and Tibet, along with the Belt and Road Initiative, are expected to continue experiencing high demand for mining explosives due to their rich mineral resources and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Mining Explosives: Industry Structure Improvement and Capacity Integration - The mining explosives industry is heavily regulated, with a strict licensing system creating natural barriers to entry. The industry has a clear supply chain, with raw materials like ammonium nitrate being crucial for production [17][18]. - Government policies are driving industry consolidation, with expectations that the number of production enterprises will decrease to fewer than 50 by 2025, while the top 10 companies will account for over 60% of the industry's production value [23][24]. - The profit margins of mining explosives companies are expected to improve, with production value projected at 41.695 billion yuan in 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [31][36]. 2. Mining Services: A Key to Long-Term Growth - The mining services market is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan, with mining companies increasing capital expenditures significantly. The integration of mining services and explosives is seen as a critical growth driver [59][62]. - The report emphasizes that the penetration rate of mining services by explosives companies remains low, indicating substantial growth potential as the industry shifts towards integrated service models [59][62]. 3. Regional Insights and Opportunities - Xinjiang is becoming a new center for coal production, with a projected output of 540 million tons in 2024, benefiting the local mining explosives market [4][5]. - Tibet's rich hydropower resources and copper mining potential are highlighted as areas of significant growth, with expected high demand for mining explosives [4][5]. - The Belt and Road Initiative is opening up new opportunities for mining explosives companies, as domestic firms expand their operations overseas [4][5]. 4. Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include Xuefeng Technology, Guangdong Hongda, Jiangnan Chemical, Yipuli, and Yahua Group, all of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth and consolidation trends [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial explosives industry in China is maturing, with significant increases in production capacity and output, driven by growing demand and technological advancements [2][6][10]. Industry Definition and Classification - Industrial explosives, also known as civil explosives, are explosive mixtures primarily composed of oxidizers and fuels, designed based on the principle of oxygen balance [3][4]. - Common types include ammonium nitrate explosives, emulsified explosives, and nitroglycerin explosives, characterized by low cost, simple manufacturing, and reliable application [4]. Current Development Status - The production of industrial explosives in China has increased from 3.54 million tons in 2016 to an expected 4.49 million tons in 2024, with major types including gel emulsified explosives (61.02%), porous ammonium oil explosives (23.15%), and expanded ammonium nitrate explosives (7.17%) [6][8]. - The total sales volume of industrial explosives is projected to reach 4.485 million tons in 2024, with gel emulsified explosives leading at 2.7289 million tons [8]. Industry Trends - The industry is transitioning from extensive growth to a focus on safety, environmental sustainability, and intelligence, with technological innovation and regulatory compliance as key drivers [2][10]. - Future challenges include balancing cost control with technological upgrades and exploring value-added blasting services to address environmental pressures and competition from alternative technologies [2]. Related Companies - Key listed companies in the industrial explosives sector include Yipuli (002096.SZ), Poly United (002037.SZ), Hongda Explosive (002683), and others [3]. - Other relevant companies include Beifang Special Energy, Yunnan Minexplosion, and Longye Chemical [3].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial explosives industry in China is maturing, with significant increases in production capacity and output, driven by expanding applications and demand in various sectors such as mining and infrastructure construction [1][4][19]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Classification - Industrial explosives, also known as civil explosives, are explosive mixtures primarily composed of oxidizers and fuels, designed based on the principle of oxygen balance [2]. - Common types include ammonium nitrate explosives, emulsified explosives, and nitroglycerin explosives, characterized by low cost, simple manufacturing, and reliable application [2]. Group 2: Current Development Status - The production capacity and output of industrial explosives in China have significantly increased, with the domestic output projected to reach 4.4937 million tons in 2024, up from 3.5417 million tons in 2016 [4][6]. - The most widely used types of explosives include gel emulsified explosives, porous ammonium oil explosives, and expanded ammonium nitrate explosives, which together account for 91.35% of total production [4]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The upstream of the industrial explosives industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as ammonium nitrate, TNT, and sodium nitrate, with ammonium nitrate being the primary raw material [8][10]. - The midstream consists of research and production manufacturers, while the downstream customer base includes engineering blasting units involved in mining and construction [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industrial explosives market in China is fragmented, with numerous companies including Yipuli, Poly United, Hongda Blasting, and Yahua Group leading the industry [12][14]. - Key players have established competitive advantages through integrated operations, technological capabilities, and extensive distribution networks [14][15][17]. Group 5: Industry Development Trends - The industry is transitioning from extensive growth to a focus on safety, environmental sustainability, and smart technology, driven by innovation and regulatory compliance [19]. - Future growth will be supported by mining demand, infrastructure investment, and emerging application scenarios, while companies must balance cost control with technological upgrades [19].

Industry Outlook - The civil explosives industry is essential for national economic and social development, with a promising future driven by policy support and innovation [1][2] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with 3-5 large enterprises gaining international competitiveness by 2027 [2][26] Company Strategy - The company aims to enhance profitability through continuous development of major clients and projects, focusing on regions like Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Xinjiang [3][4] - Plans to strengthen internal collaboration and optimize regional capacity allocation are in place to improve operational efficiency [3][4] - The company is committed to international expansion, aligning with national policies like the Belt and Road Initiative [3][19] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 9.481 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.59%, and a net profit of CNY 891 million, up 15.26% [5][19] - The international business has seen significant growth, with overseas revenue surpassing CNY 1 billion, accounting for 10.79% of total revenue [19] Research and Development - The company has increased R&D investment, with expenses reaching CNY 301 million in 2024, representing 3.18% of revenue [21][22] - Collaborations with universities have led to award-winning projects, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [4][21] Market Position - The company maintains a competitive pricing strategy in various provinces, ensuring alignment with market principles [10][11] - The company’s logistics capabilities include over 400 specialized vehicles, with an annual transport capacity exceeding 1.2 million tons [13][14] Risk Management - The company actively monitors international economic conditions and adjusts strategies to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and market fluctuations [5][6] - Measures are in place to manage raw material costs, particularly ammonium nitrate, which is sensitive to commodity price cycles [16][22] Corporate Governance - The company emphasizes market value management, focusing on operational excellence and investor relations to enhance shareholder value [12][15] - The company is committed to sustainable practices, investing in green technologies and achieving recognition as a green factory [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The modern coal chemical industry is experiencing a development opportunity period, driven by industrial upgrades and energy security [10] - Xinjiang is emerging as a strong coal chemical base due to its abundant resources, favorable policies, and significant investment in coal chemical projects [10][28] - The report identifies three major investment directions within the coal chemical industry: equipment providers, project owners, and service providers [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Modern Coal Chemical Industry Development - Modern coal chemical processes produce alternative petrochemical products and clean fuels, including coal-to-olefins and coal-to-oil [17] - The industry is essential for ensuring national energy security, given China's reliance on coal as a primary energy source [22][26] 2. Xinjiang's Coal Chemical Industry - Xinjiang has rich coal reserves, with a total resource of 2.19 trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the national total [28] - The region's coal quality is high, primarily consisting of low-sulfur and high-calorific value coal types, making it suitable for large-scale coal chemical projects [33] - Favorable national policies have positioned Xinjiang as a key coal chemical base, with over 800 billion yuan in planned investments for various coal chemical projects [45] 3. Economic Competitiveness - Xinjiang's coal-to-gas production costs are significantly lower than those in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, with costs estimated at 1.28 yuan per cubic meter compared to 2.06 yuan and 2.68 yuan, respectively [53] - The report highlights the cost advantages of Xinjiang's coal resources, with pithead prices for coal being substantially lower than in other regions [34][53] 4. Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies for investment include those involved in engineering design, total contracting, and equipment supply, such as Sandi Chemical, China National Chemical, and Donghua Technology [9] - Project owners benefiting from Xinjiang's cost advantages include Baofeng Energy and Guanghui Energy [9] - Service providers in the coal chemical sector, such as Guangdong Hongda and Xuefeng Technology, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company's explosive production capacity is expected to expand further, solidifying its industry-leading position and improving regional layout [4][5]. - The restructuring agreement with Hubei Chutian Chemical is anticipated to enhance the company's operational capabilities and market presence [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Jiangnan Chemical, along with its subsidiary, Northern Explosives, signed a restructuring agreement with Hubei Chutian Chemical to establish a new limited liability company, enhancing its control over the explosive production market [3]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 105.49 billion, 116.91 billion, and 128.64 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 10.31 billion, 11.95 billion, and 13.80 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.74%, 15.88%, and 15.48% respectively [5][10]. - The explosive production capacity is expected to reach nearly 800,000 tons per year after the completion of the restructuring, significantly enhancing the company's competitive edge [4]. Profitability Metrics - The report forecasts a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.389, 0.451, and 0.521 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.02% in 2025 to 11.22% in 2027, showcasing the company's increasing profitability [10].