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转债市场三季度业绩预告怎么看
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-19 10:28
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - As of October 18, 2025, 117 listed companies have disclosed their Q3 earnings forecasts, the lowest in the past five years. About 84% of them announced positive news, similar to 2024. Most companies issued pre - increase announcements (60% of all forecasts). Only 10 convertible bond companies disclosed Q3 earnings forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery industries had more positive news. The non - ferrous metals and media industries showed significant improvement compared to 2024. Seven non - ferrous metal companies announced pre - increase, and 2 announced turnaround; 1 media company announced turnaround and 1 pre - increase [2][8]. - Four convertible bond listed companies, Luxshare, Limin, Bojun, and Downtow, reported positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years. Luxshare expects a 20% - 25% net profit increase in Q3, Limin may see a year - on - year net profit increase of over 600%, Bojun expects a 50% - 80% net profit increase, and Downtow's Q3 profit may increase by over 30% [2][13][14]. - The market style may be switching, and geopolitical uncertainties increase market volatility. The risk appetite in the convertible bond market may have declined. Selecting high - quality convertible bonds during the earnings season may be a key strategy, especially those with consistently excellent performance [2][14]. Summaries by Directory 1. Q3 Earnings Forecasts: How to View the Convertible Bond Market - The number of listed companies disclosing Q3 earnings forecasts in 2025 is the lowest in the past five years, with a similar structure to 2024. The proportion of companies with positive news is about 84%, the same as in 2024. In the convertible bond market, only 10 companies disclosed forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery are industries with more positive news. Non - ferrous metals and media industries improved significantly compared to 2024. 15 companies mentioned AI contributions in their earnings forecasts, with 14 reporting positive results and most planning to increase AI investment [2][8][11]. - Four convertible bond listed companies had positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years, with specific reasons for profit growth provided for each company [2][13][14]. 2. One - Week Market Performance - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.47% for the week; the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 474.22, down 2.35% for the week. The top - three rising industries in the stock market were banks (+4.99%), coal (+4.27%), and food and beverages (+0.85%), while electronics (-7.10%), media (-6.28%), and automobiles (-6.24%) declined [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 45 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 11%. The top - five and bottom - five in terms of price changes are listed. 266 convertible bonds' conversion premium rates increased, accounting for 64%, and the top - five and bottom - five in terms of valuation changes are also listed [17]. 3. Major Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reductions - Nanjing Pharmaceutical announced a convertible bond reduction this week. A table shows the convertible bonds with high major shareholder holding ratios and their reduction status [25][26][27]. 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - The primary - market approval process remains fast. Zhongqi Co., Ltd. (1.039 billion yuan), Mankun Technology (760 million yuan), and Huatong Cable (800 million yuan) have board proposals. Haitian Co., Ltd. (801 million yuan) has passed the shareholders' meeting, and Tianzhun Technology (872 million yuan) has received CSRC approval [27][28]. 5. Private EB Project Updates There were no progress updates on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: Large - Scale High - Rating Bonds Prevailed This Week - Using month - end rebalancing for back - testing and excluding bonds rated below A - and those with announced forced redemptions, large - scale high - rating convertible bonds prevailed this week. High - rating bonds had a 2.63pct excess return over low - rating bonds, large - scale bonds had a 1.89pct excess return over small - scale bonds, and equity - biased bonds had a - 8.24pct excess return over debt - biased bonds [29]. 7. One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Convertible Bond Valuations Declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate declined. As of the last trading day of the week, it closed at 29.31%, down 0.29% from the previous week, at the 86.5% historical percentile in the past six months and 93.6% in the past year. The median full - scope conversion premium rate increased by 0.78pct to 28.61%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) increased by 1.69pct to 41.46% [40]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium rate closed at 10.58%, down 1.12pct from the previous week, at the 80.6% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium rate closed at 10.78%, down 1.43pct from the previous week, at the 71.4% historical percentile in the past six months [40]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of the week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the bond floor, and 2 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.2%, 0%, and 6.7% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively. The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 3.97%, 5.84pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield; the median YTM of AA - to AA+ debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.48%, 3.59pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [44]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium rate remained flat. After excluding factors such as bond nature and remaining term, it was at the 84.3% historical percentile in the past six months and 68.9% since 2018. Considering only the bond floor, it was at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 34.8% since 2018 [56].
133家A股上市公司发布2025年前三季度业绩预告 9家上市公司净利最高同比预增超400%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-18 08:22
【133家A股上市公司发布2025年前三季度业绩预告 9家上市公司净利最高同比预增超400%】智通财经 10月18日电,据Choice数据统计显示,截至发稿,共有133家A股上市公司发布2025年前三季度业绩预 告。其中,包括先达股份、楚江新材、英联股份、硕贝德、广东明珠、容知日新、盛和资源、利民股 份、晨光生物在内的9只个股归母净利同比预增上限超400%。小财注:广东明珠上周四发布业绩预增公 告,本周五收盘6天3板。 转自:智通财经 ...
深挖财报之2025Q3业绩预告分析:业绩预告中的高景气线索
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-17 10:20
Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the performance forecasts for Q3 2025 in the electronics and basic chemicals sectors are promising, with over 10 companies expecting a year-on-year profit growth exceeding 30% [1][9] - The electronics sector is expected to maintain high growth due to the AI wave, which is driving new demand for AI inference [1][12] - The basic chemicals sector is experiencing structural improvements due to supply constraints and demand support, with some industries already showing signs of recovery [1][24] Group 2 - As of October 15, 2025, the overall disclosure rate for Q3 2025 earnings forecasts across all A-shares is approximately 2.83%, with a positive forecast rate of about 83.06% [2][33] - Among the disclosed companies, the median year-on-year net profit growth rate is 71.2%, while the overall method shows a growth rate of 65.6% [2][45] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-ferrous metals (165.2%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (213.7%), and media (753.9%) [45][48] Group 3 - In the upstream materials sector, significant growth is noted in industrial metals (2150.1%), new metal materials (298.8%), and minor metals (365.7%) [3][48] - The midstream manufacturing sector shows high growth rates in batteries (130.8%), wind power equipment (212.7%), and other electronics (111.6%) [3][51] - In the downstream consumption sector, notable growth is observed in agricultural product processing (372.8%), chemical pharmaceuticals (251.4%), and gaming (753.9%) [3][48] Group 4 - The sectors with the highest positive forecast rates for Q3 2025 include comprehensive services, non-bank financials, and social services, all at 100% [1][41] - Conversely, the sectors with the lowest positive forecast rates include building materials, coal, and beauty care [1][41] - The report highlights that the electronics industry is benefiting from a strong demand for AI-related hardware, with significant growth in the electronic information manufacturing sector [12][18]
利民股份(002734) - 公司关于控股股东、实际控制人部分股份解除质押的公告
2025-10-17 03:40
三、其他说明 上述质押股份不存在平仓或被强制过户的风险;当质押的股份出现平仓或被 股票代码:002734 股票简称:利民股份 公告编号:2025-081 利民控股集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东、实际控制人部分股份解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 近日,利民控股集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")接到公司控股股东、 实际控制人李明先生的通知,获悉李明先生将其持有的部分公司股份办理了解除 质押手续,具体事项如下: | | 是否为 | | 本次解 | 本次解 除质押 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 名称 | 第一大 股东及 一致行 | 本次解除质 押股数(股) | 除质押 占其所 持股份 | 占公司 总股本 | 质押开 始日期 | 解除质押 日期 | 质权人 | | | 动人 | | 比例 | 比例 | | | | | 李明 | 是 | 10,500,000 | 16.27% | 2.39% | 2023.2. 20 | 2025.10. 16 ...
钛白粉价格上调,陶氏关闭比利时多元醇工厂
Huaan Securities· 2025-10-16 07:20
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector showed a weekly performance ranking of 8th with a gain of 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.85 percentage points [4][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week of October 9-10, 2025, was a gain of 1.99%, ranking 8th among sectors [22]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (6.26%), titanium dioxide (4.23%), and oil and petrochemical trade (4.23%) [23]. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the adjustment of energy structures [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to enter a high prosperity cycle, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion in Southeast Asia [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with significant opportunities for domestic substitution [6][8]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to domestic production [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output and the demand for fertilizers increases due to rising grain prices [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12].
国信证券晨会纪要-20251016
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-16 01:56
Key Recommendations - The report highlights the social services industry, particularly focusing on the chain restaurant sector, recommending leading brands that offer good value for money in the dining and tea beverage segments [7] - The construction industry report emphasizes the necessity of cleanroom engineering as a critical component of AI infrastructure, with global demand for construction rapidly increasing [11] Industry and Company Insights - In the restaurant sector, the report notes that in September 2025, the stock prices of major restaurant brands faced pressure, with notable increases for brands like Xiaobai Xiaobai (+33%) and Yum Brands (+4%) [7] - The mid-year financial summary indicates that the tracked chain restaurant leaders saw a 29% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, with a 16% revenue growth, outperforming the overall retail dining market growth of 4% [7] - The cleanroom engineering market is driven by the need for controlled environments in precision product manufacturing, with investments in cleanroom engineering typically accounting for 10-20% of total project costs [11] - The global cleanroom market is expected to grow due to increasing demands for semiconductor manufacturing and data center construction, particularly in North America, which is identified as a market with significant potential [11] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that in September 2025, the domestic restaurant revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, recovering from previous months' declines [7] - The cleanroom engineering demand is expected to rise as companies like TSMC ramp up investments in the U.S., with TSMC planning an additional $100 billion investment, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the cleanroom sector [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the cleanroom engineering space, such as Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration, which are expected to benefit from the global semiconductor supply chain restructuring [12] - In the restaurant sector, it recommends investing in brands like Xiaobai Xiaobai, Gu Ming, and Mi Xue Group, which are positioned to capitalize on the recovery and growth in the dining market [9]
2025年中国杀菌剂行业政策、市场规模、进出口、竞争格局及未来趋势研判:政策与市场双轮驱动,杀菌剂行业向绿色高效方向发展[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-16 01:13
内容概况:杀菌剂作为一种用于防治植物病害的重要药剂,通过杀死或抑制病原物来保障作物健康与产 量。近年来,随着公众健康意识的提高和环保政策的推动,杀菌剂在多个领域的应用需求不断增长。农 业领域是杀菌剂的主要消费市场,随着农业现代化进程的加快,对高效、低毒、环保的杀菌剂需求日益 增加。同时,工业杀菌剂在食品加工、水处理等领域的应用也逐渐扩大。在此背景下,中国杀菌剂行业 快速发展,市场规模持续扩大。数据显示,中国杀菌剂行业市场规模从2019年的236.7亿元增长至2024 年的405亿元,年复合增长率为11.34%。随着国内公共卫生意识的提高和环保政策的加强,预计中国杀 菌剂市场将持续扩大,特别是环保型、生物型杀菌剂的市场需求将快速增长。 相关上市企业:新安股份(600596)、联化科技(002250)、利民股份(002734)、安道麦A (000553)、*ST辉丰(002496)、诺普信(002215)、扬农化工(600486)、中旗股份(300575)、 海利尔(603639)、长青股份(002391)等。 相关企业:安徽华星化工有限公司、常州中南化工有限公司等。 关键词:杀菌剂行业相关政策、杀菌剂行业产业链 ...
农化行业:2025年9月月度观察:钾肥库存维持低位,磷酸铁开工率提升,草甘膦持续涨价-20251015
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-15 15:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand remain tight, with international prices staying high. China's potassium chloride production is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The phosphoric chemical industry is expected to maintain a high price level due to the scarcity of resources and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see a recovery in demand, driven by increased agricultural planting areas in South America and a rebound in inventory replenishment [4][8]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The domestic potassium chloride port inventory as of September 2025 is 1.7292 million tons, a decrease of 135.6 thousand tons year-on-year, representing a decline of 43.95% [1][26]. - The average market price for potassium chloride in China at the end of September is 3,237 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.43% but a year-on-year increase of 34.82% [1][41]. - Key recommendation includes focusing on "Yaji International," with expected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [4][48]. Phosphoric Chemicals - The domestic supply-demand balance for phosphate rock is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei at 1,040 yuan/ton and in Yunnan at 970 yuan/ton, both stable month-on-month [2][50]. - The report highlights the long-term price stability of phosphate rock due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with a market price of 900 yuan/ton maintained for over two years [2][5]. - Recommended companies include "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," which have rich phosphate reserves [5]. Pesticides - The pesticide sector is expected to recover as the "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" three-year action plan is initiated, with a significant increase in demand due to rising agricultural planting areas in South America [4][8]. - The price of glyphosate has been on the rise, reaching 27,700 yuan/ton by October 14, an increase of 4,500 yuan/ton since April, representing a 19.40% rise [4][8]. - Key recommendations include "Yangnong Chemical" and "Lier Chemical," which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in pesticide prices [8].
利民股份:李明持股比例已降至25.00%
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-15 00:31
南财智讯10月15日电,利民股份公告,股东李明于2025年8月1日至2025年10月14日通过集中竞价和大宗 交易方式减持公司股份920.91万股,占公司总股本的2.09%。此次变动后,李明及其一致行动人合计持 有公司股份10997.68万股,占公司总股本的25.00%。本次权益变动不会导致上市公司的控股股东、实际 控制人发生变化,也不存在损害上市公司及其他股东利益的情形。李明不排除在未来12个月内根据股市 走势情况继续增减持股份的可能。截至本报告书签署日,信息披露义务人持有的上市公司股份累计被质 押2750万股,占其所持公司股份的25.01%,占目前公司总股本的6.25%。 ...
利民股份(002734) - 简式权益变动报告书
2025-10-14 13:34
利民控股集团股份有限公司 简式权益变动报告书 上市公司名称:利民控股集团股份有限公司 信息披露义务人:李明 住所:江苏省新沂市 权益变动性质:持股比例减少 签署日期:2025 年 10 月 14 日 1 上市地点:深圳证券交易所 股票简称:利民股份 股票代码:002734 信息披露义务人声明 一、信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》 《上市公司收购管理办法》《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 15 号—权益变动报告书》等法律、法规编制本报告书。 二、信息披露义务人签署本报告书已获得必要的授权和批准,其履行不违反 信息披露义务人章程或内部规则中的任何条款,或与之相冲突。 三、依据《证券法》《收购办法》和《准则 15 号》的规定,本报告书已全面 披露了信息披露义务人在利民控股集团股份有限公司中拥有权益的股份变动情 况。 截止本报告书签署之日,除本报告书披露的信息外,信息披露义务人没有通 过任何其他方式增加或减少其在利民控股集团股份有限公司中拥有权益的股份。 四、本次权益变动是根据本报告所载明的资料进行的。除本信息披露义务人 外,没有委托或者授权任何其他人提供未在本报告中列载 ...