证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 09 月 15 日 储能系列报告（12） 国内储能政策持续加码，需求将超预期且可持续 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 近日，国家发改委、能源局联合印发《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案 (2025—2027 年)》。规划 2027 年全国新型储能装机规模达 180GW 以上，即 未来两年半内，将大储装机规模翻倍，并加快完善储能市场机制。同时，宁夏 发改委也发布《建立发电侧容量电价机制的通知（征求意见稿）》意见的公告， 建立储能容量电价机制，结合此前多省政策，省级容量政策接力强制配储是大 趋势。随着行业政策的持续加码以及招投标前置数据维持景气，我们认为国内 大储需求未来有望超预期。 风险提示：行业政策变动、行业竞争加剧、终端需求不及预期等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宁德时代 | 300750.SZ | 1492.8 | 11.5 | 14.9 | 22 | 5 ...

中国储能市场迎来快速增长期，政策驱动下，各省份积极探索储能商业 模式，如内蒙古的充放电容量补偿和甘肃的容量电价政策，有效提升了 储能项目的投资回报率，并起到了显著的示范效应。 规划提出到 2027 年实现 180GW 的装机目标，未来三年需新增约 100GW 左右的装机量。截至 2024 年底，国内储能累计装机量为 73.8GW，假设配套时长为 3 小时，则每年的新增装机量约为 100GWh。 储能电芯价格受碳酸锂等原材料价格上涨及国内需求超预期影响，供需 关系进入新的上升周期，预计相关公司盈利能力将得到修复。 全球电力系统发展趋势推动储能行业长期可持续发展，可再生能源比例 提升和负荷侧非线性用电需求增加导致灵活性资源需求大增，电化学储 能因其部署灵活、成本可控成为重要选择。 中国公司在全球储能市场具有长周期机会，可享受国内市场化转型和全 球出海双重红利，阳光电源、宁德时代等龙头企业有望受益。 Q&A 请详细解读发改委发布的 2025-2027 年新型储能发展规划及其对行业的影响。 发改委发布的 2025-2027 年新型储能发展规划是继 136 号文之后，对储能行 业最重要的顶层设计文件之一。该规划不仅明确 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high growth in domestic solar storage product shipments, with overseas storage accelerating, which will enhance performance. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 634 million, 807 million, and 984 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51%, 27%, and 22% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4,933 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 111%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 286 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 250% [2] - In 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of 6,236 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31%, and a net profit of 634 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51% [2][4] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 24.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points [4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has a strong position in the domestic ground-mounted solar market and is increasing its share in distributed business. It is also expanding into overseas markets such as India, the Middle East, and Europe, which are expected to support rapid growth in global solar business [4] - The revenue from the photovoltaic inverter business in the first half of 2025 reached 1.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14%. The overseas revenue for the same period was 980 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 106% [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.1, 21.3, and 17.5, respectively [2][5] - The projected P/B ratios for the same years are 6.2, 4.9, and 3.9, respectively [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the energy storage sector, specifically recommending Yangguang Electric (阳光电源), Shangneng Electric (上能电气), Shenghong Co., Ltd. (盛弘股份), and CATL (宁德时代) [6][9][10]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration is expected to clarify the profit model for independent energy storage, promoting long-term healthy development in the domestic energy storage industry [1][2]. - The action plan sets a target of over 180 GW of new energy storage capacity by 2027, which is projected to drive direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [2]. - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage remains strong, and the pricing in the domestic supply chain is stabilizing, leading to an optimistic outlook for the energy storage industry [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The action plan encourages energy storage to participate in the electricity market, aiming for a cumulative installed capacity of 73.8 GW by 2024, with an average annual requirement of 35.4 GW from 2025 to 2027 to meet the target [2][3]. - Various provinces are implementing policies to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, such as capacity compensation mechanisms [3][4]. Section 2: Pricing and Competition - The report notes that the price competition in the domestic supply chain is nearing its end, with prices for PCS increasing from 0.065 yuan/W in June to 0.07 yuan/W in September, and energy storage cells rising from 0.29 yuan/Wh to 0.3 yuan/Wh [4][5]. - The market is expected to undergo a process of elimination, favoring leading companies while smaller firms may gradually exit the market [4]. Section 3: Company Recommendations - Yangguang Electric (阳光电源) is projected to achieve a net profit of 145.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 147.42 yuan [11]. - Shangneng Electric (上能电气) is expected to see a net profit of 6.10 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 39.93 yuan [11]. - Shenghong Co., Ltd. (盛弘股份) anticipates a net profit of 5.38 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 51.60 yuan [11]. - CATL (宁德时代) is forecasted to achieve a net profit of 666 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 342.22 yuan [11].

主产业链营收增加毛利率总体修复，但环节和企业间有分化 中金主要观点如下： 分环节看，抢装影响下下游电池组件涨价相对迅速毛利修复，但硅料硅片业绩仍边际下行。主产业链总 体毛利修复，但由于出货量增加，板块整体亏损尚未显著减少。 浆料加工费稳定，玻璃、胶膜盈利改善 浆料2Q25出货环比略增，但业绩受到费用的影响较大，关注今年至明年上半年贱金属浆料量产导入的 节奏，有望给浆料企业带来较大收入利润增长空间。接线盒、边框、焊带盈利能力同环比均承压，边框 海外产能贡献亮眼。玻璃和胶膜2Q受到国内抢装影响，价格及利润修复，集中式逆变器及储能系统、 工商储能需求强劲。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，2Q25光伏需求得益于国内抢装而快速增长，主产业链公司2Q25 的营收和毛利率总体有所修复，另外随着美国关税的缓和，相关企业理顺供应链后，美国市场的盈利亦 显著修复。辅材方面，玻璃和胶膜2Q受抢装驱动价格及利润修复，海外客户需求强劲，利润优于国内 且具备持续性。逆变器方面，集中式逆变器及储能系统在美国、德国、澳大利亚地区均存在超预期表 现；此外，欧洲区域工商业项目配储需求强劲。 标的方面 推荐：硅料环节：通威股份(600438 ...

证券之星消息，9月10日光伏设备板块较上一交易日下跌2.34%，上能电气领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3812.22，上涨0.13%。深证成指报收于12557.68，上涨0.38%。光伏设备板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300316 晶盛机电 | | 1.39 Z | 8.12% | -1604.57万 | -0.94% | -1.23 Z | -7.18% | | 688598 会博股份 | | 7337.23万 | 17.05% | -437.74万 | -1.02% | -6899.48万 | -16.03% | | 603185 弘元绿能 | | 1790.07万 | 3.42% | -2235.24万 | -4.27% | 445.17万 | 0.85% | | 688516 | 圆特维 | 1772.59万 | 5.59% | -1167.91万 | -3.68% | ...

9月10日，A股主要指数集体上涨，沪指涨0.13%报3812点，深证成指涨0.38%，创业板指涨1.27%。全市场超2700股下跌。 | © 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3812.22 | +4.93 | +0.13% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 12557.68 | +47.08 | +0.38% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2904.27 | +36.30 | +1.27% | | 000688 | 科创20 | 1259.10 | +13.57 | +1.09% | 盘面上，油气开采板块强势，通源石油涨近15%，准油股份涨停；iPhone Air牵手联通推出eSIM手机，通信服务板块走强，二六三涨 停，中国联通涨超5%；旅游板块走高，凯撒旅业、天府文旅涨停；游戏板块活跃，巨人网络涨停；CPO板块反弹，工业富联等多股涨 停，"易中天"纷纷大涨；算力租赁、影视院线、快手概念、液冷服务器、体育产业等板块涨幅居前。 另外，电池板块跌幅居前，天宏锂电跌超9%；光伏设备板 ...

9月9日，上能电气涨5.15%，截至发稿，报37.60元/股，成交26.55亿元，换手率19.26%，总市值188.88 亿元。上能电气股价已经连续5天上涨，区间累计涨幅43.73%。 南方大数据100指数A（001113）基金经理为解锐。 资料显示，上能电气股份有限公司位于江苏省无锡市惠山区和惠路6号，成立日期2012年3月30日，上市 日期2020年4月10日，公司主营业务涉及电力电子设备的研发、生产、销售。主营业务收入构成为：光 伏逆变器72.20%，储能双向变流器及系统集成产品25.64%，电能质量治理产品1.19%，备件及技术服务 0.85%，其他0.12%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，南方基金旗下1只基金重仓上能电气。南方大数据100指数A（001113）二季度持有股数43.24 万股，占基金净值比例为1.06%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约79.56万元。连续5天 上涨期间浮盈赚取470.47万元。 南方大数据100指数A（001113）成立日期2015年4月24日，最新规模12.37亿。今年以来收益21.04%，同 类排名2260/4222；近一年收益37.56%，同类排名 ...

Group 1 - On September 4, among the 31 first-level industries tracked by Shenwan, 11 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the power equipment industry leading at a net inflow of 1.144 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included automotive, transportation, home appliances, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank financials, each exceeding 200 million yuan in net inflow [1] Group 2 - A total of 1,812 individual stocks received net financing inflows on September 4, with 128 stocks having net inflows exceeding 30 million yuan [1] - Among these, 26 stocks had net inflows over 100 million yuan, with Jianghuai Automobile leading at a net inflow of 384 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows included Ningbo Huaxiang, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shangneng Electric, Luxshare Precision, Changfei Optical Fiber, Unisoc, and Beijing Junzheng, each with net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 469.46 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 3.18 billion yuan compared to the previous period, with 17 stocks experiencing a financing balance growth of over 10% and 23 stocks seeing a decline of over 10% [1]. Financing Balance Overview - As of September 4, the ChiNext index fell by 4.25%, with a total margin balance of 470.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.25 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The financing balance is 469.46 billion yuan, down by 3.18 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance is 1.51 billion yuan, down by 64.33 million yuan [1]. - Among the 445 stocks with increased financing balances, 17 stocks saw an increase of over 10%. The largest increase was for Shangneng Electric, with a financing balance of 738.61 million yuan, up by 60.76% [1][3]. Stocks with Increased Financing Balances - The stocks with the highest financing balance increases include: - Shangneng Electric: 738.61 million yuan, +60.76%, closing price 34.12 yuan, +13.32% [3]. - Baipusais: 94.00 million yuan, +18.99%, closing price 60.40 yuan, -7.79% [3]. - Kailong Gaoke: 46.23 million yuan, +16.27%, closing price 15.29 yuan, +0.92% [3]. - The average increase for stocks with over 10% growth was 1.22%, with notable performers including Shangneng Electric, Pinwo Food, and Penghui Energy [1]. Stocks with Decreased Financing Balances - A total of 498 stocks saw a decrease in financing balances, with 23 stocks experiencing a decline of over 10%. The largest decrease was for Boyuan Shares, with a financing balance of 11.83 million yuan, down by 37.80% [4]. - Other significant declines include: - Songsheng Shares: 7.55 million yuan, -32.62% [4]. - Youyou Green Energy: 11.74 million yuan, -30.99% [4]. Capital Flow Analysis - On September 4, among the stocks with increased financing balances, 11 stocks saw net inflows of main funds, with Penghui Energy and Shangneng Electric leading with net inflows of 139 million yuan and 133 million yuan, respectively [2]. - Conversely, six stocks experienced net outflows, with Xian Dao Intelligent and Baipusais seeing the largest outflows of 192 million yuan and 22.51 million yuan, respectively [2].