Core Viewpoint - Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, which could significantly influence its near-term stock price [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Accel Entertainment's quarterly earnings is $0.22 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 12% [3]. - Expected revenues for the quarter are projected at $337.56 million, representing a 9.1% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial projections during this period [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Accel Entertainment is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +22.73%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [10]. - Accel Entertainment currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, which, combined with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a high likelihood of exceeding the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Accel Entertainment was expected to post earnings of $0.18 per share but actually reported $0.24, resulting in a surprise of +33.33% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - Accel Entertainment is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [17].

Accel Entertainment (ACEL) closed the last trading session at $12.27, gaining 8.9% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $15.67 indicates a 27.7% upside potential.The average comprises three short-term price targets ranging from a low of $15.00 to a high of $16.00, with a standard deviation of $0.58. While the lowest estimate indicates an increase of 22.3% from the curren ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming the sustainability of stock trends for profitable short-term investing, highlighting the use of a specific screening strategy to identify stocks with strong fundamentals and positive price momentum [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Screening Strategy - The "Recent Price Strength" screen is designed to identify stocks with sufficient fundamental strength to maintain their recent uptrend, focusing on those trading in the upper portion of their 52-week high-low range, indicating bullishness [3]. - Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is highlighted as a suitable candidate that passed through this screening process, showing a solid price increase of 9.3% over the past 12 weeks, reflecting investor confidence [4]. - ACEL has also maintained a price increase of 5.3% over the last four weeks, indicating that the upward trend is still intact, and it is currently trading at 81.7% of its 52-week high-low range, suggesting a potential breakout [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Strength - ACEL carries a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, which are critical for near-term price movements [6]. - The Zacks Rank system has a strong track record, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988, indicating the effectiveness of this ranking system [7]. - The Average Broker Recommendation for ACEL is 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting high optimism from the brokerage community regarding the stock's near-term performance [7]. Group 3: Additional Insights - The article suggests that ACEL's price trend is unlikely to reverse soon, and there are other stocks that also meet the criteria of the "Recent Price Strength" screen, encouraging investors to explore these options [8]. - The key to successful stock-picking is ensuring that the strategy has produced profitable results in the past, which can be backtested using the Zacks Research Wizard [9].

Group 1 - Accel Entertainment (ACEL) has returned 12.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 11.5% [4] - The Zacks Rank for Accel Entertainment is currently 2 (Buy), indicating strong analyst sentiment and an improving earnings outlook [3] - Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACEL's full-year earnings has increased by 8% [3] Group 2 - Accel Entertainment is part of the Gaming industry, which consists of 39 companies and currently ranks 149 in the Zacks Industry Rank [5] - The Gaming industry has gained an average of 13.7% year-to-date, indicating that ACEL is slightly underperforming its industry [5] - Another stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Sendas Distribuidora S.A. Sponsored ADR (ASAIY), has significantly outperformed with a year-to-date increase of 115.7% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on "buying high and selling higher" rather than traditional strategies of "buying low and selling high" [1] Group 1: Momentum Investing Strategy - Momentum investors often face challenges in determining the right entry point for fast-moving stocks, which can lose momentum if future growth does not justify high valuations [2] - Investing in bargain stocks that have recently shown price momentum can be a safer strategy, utilizing tools like the Zacks Momentum Style Score to identify potential opportunities [3] Group 2: Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Analysis - Accel Entertainment (ACEL) has shown a price increase of 0.6% over the past four weeks, indicating growing investor interest [4] - The stock has gained 10.1% over the past 12 weeks, demonstrating its ability to deliver positive returns over a longer timeframe [5] - ACEL has a Momentum Score of B, suggesting it is an opportune time to invest in the stock [6] - The stock has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to upward revisions in earnings estimates, which typically attract more investor interest [7] - ACEL is trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.76, indicating it is reasonably valued at 76 cents for each dollar of sales [7] Group 3: Additional Investment Opportunities - Besides ACEL, there are other stocks that meet the criteria of the 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, presenting further investment opportunities [8] - Investors can explore over 45 Zacks Premium Screens tailored to different investing styles to identify potential winning stocks [9]

Group 1 - Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) is experiencing significant activity in the options market, particularly with the Jul 18, 2025 $10 Put showing high implied volatility, indicating potential for a major price movement [1] - Implied volatility reflects market expectations for future stock movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant event that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - Accel Entertainment holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) in the Gaming industry, which is in the top 36% of the Zacks Industry Rank, although recent earnings estimates have seen a downward revision from 22 cents to 21 cents per share [3][4] Group 2 - The high implied volatility may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options, hoping the stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Accel Entertainment (ACEL) shares have increased by 4.1% recently, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of 36.7% based on a mean price target of $15.67 [1][11]. Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean price target consists of three short-term estimates with a standard deviation of $0.58, indicating a consensus among analysts [2]. - The lowest estimate is $15, suggesting a 30.9% increase, while the highest estimate is $16, indicating a 39.6% increase from the current price [2]. - A low standard deviation signifies a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [9]. Earnings Estimates and Market Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about ACEL's earnings prospects, as indicated by upward revisions in EPS estimates, which have shown a strong correlation with stock price movements [11]. - Over the past 30 days, two earnings estimates have been revised upward, leading to an 8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [12]. - ACEL holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, suggesting a strong potential for upside [13].

Group 1 - Accel Entertainment's stock is currently facing challenges despite potential upside linked to Fairmount Park, a historic property in the St. Louis metro area [1] - The company specializes in analyzing restaurant stocks across various segments, including QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and family dining [1] - Advanced analytical models and specialized valuation techniques are employed to provide detailed insights and actionable strategies for investors [1] Group 2 - The founder of Goulart's Restaurant Stocks actively engages in academic and journalistic initiatives, contributing to institutions that promote individual and economic freedom [1] - Previous contributions included discussions on monetary policy, financial education, and financial modeling aimed at making these subjects accessible to a broader audience [1]

Core Insights - Accel Entertainment reported quarterly earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18 per share, and showing an increase from $0.22 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 33.33% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $323.91 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.89% and up from $301.82 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed slightly, losing about 0.3% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 3.3% in the S&P 500 [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.22 on revenues of $331.38 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.81 on revenues of $1.32 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Accel Entertainment is currently unfavorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Gaming industry, to which Accel Entertainment belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - Another company in the same industry, Playtika Holding, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 26.7%, with revenues projected at $697.25 million, up 7.1% from the previous year [9][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $344 million for Q1 2025, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, which is the highest quarterly revenue since going public [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was $50 million, also reflecting a 7% year-over-year growth [5] - Capital expenditures for Q1 were $27 million, with a full-year CapEx forecast of $75 million to $80 million [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth was particularly strong in Illinois and Montana, with year-over-year increases of 48% in both states [5][6] - Revenue per location in core states showed varied performance: Illinois at $885 per day (up 2.9%), Montana at $610 per day (up 2.7%), and Nevada at $802 per day (down 5.3%) [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nebraska and Georgia experienced strong double-digit revenue growth, albeit from a smaller base [6] - The company has integrated operations in Louisiana, adding 96 locations and 614 terminals, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a decentralized gaming model, which allows for flexibility and efficient capital allocation based on local demand trends [9][10] - The acquisition of Kucan Gaming is expected to enhance the company's southeastern market presence and operational synergies [6][8] - The opening of Fairmont Park Casino is seen as a significant growth driver, with plans for further development in the future [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to scale proprietary products and services across its national footprint, enhancing financial performance and free cash flow [10][21] - The company remains optimistic about consumer demand and does not anticipate significant impacts from tariffs on its existing business [27][28] Other Important Information - The company announced the departure of CFO Matt Ellis, with Mark Phelan stepping in as acting CFO [14][15] - The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases, having repurchased 1 million shares at an average price of $10.34 per share [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on growth and CapEx - Management indicated that most CapEx prices are locked in, minimizing the impact of tariffs on existing business [27][28] Question: Weather impact on performance - Weather was reported as a neutral factor, with no significant negative impact on consumer behavior [30][31] Question: Strategy for underperforming locations - The company continues to prune underperforming locations to optimize profitability and reallocate resources to better-performing areas [35][36] Question: Update on Louisiana's performance - Early indications from Louisiana are positive, with ongoing remodeling and optimization efforts expected to enhance performance [38][39] Question: Timing and next steps for Phase two of Fairmont - Phase two will be informed by the operational performance of Phase one, with clarity expected after the racing season ends in October [47] Question: CapEx expectations for 2025 - The company reiterated its CapEx expectations of $75 million to $80 million for 2025, with a return to normalized levels of $40 million to $45 million thereafter [50][51]