A downtrend has been apparent in Accel Entertainment (ACEL) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 14.2% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is ov ...

Group 1 - Accel Entertainment operates in the distributed gaming industry, which is less popular compared to tech or consumer sectors, yet it shows strong fundamentals and is somewhat undervalued compared to competitors [1] - The company is perceived to have a significant competitive advantage and potential for growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1] - The analysis emphasizes a long-term perspective on businesses, focusing on those with a broad moat or deep-rooted competitive advantages that can persist over the years [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of evaluating quarterly developments in the context of a company's long-term strategy, indicating that significant deviations from this strategy may warrant buy or sell recommendations [1]

Core Insights - Accel Entertainment reported quarterly earnings of $0.25 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.22 per share, with an earnings surprise of +13.64% [1] - The company generated revenues of $335.91 million for the quarter ended June 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.49%, but showing an increase from $309.41 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has gained approximately 15.4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 7.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.20 on revenues of $330.85 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.86 on revenues of $1.33 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Accel Entertainment was favorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Gaming industry, to which Accel Entertainment belongs, is currently ranked in the top 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Another company in the same industry, Century Casinos, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.37 per share, with revenues projected at $153 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.5% [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, Xcel generated record quarterly revenue of $336 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 9% [5][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $53 million, a year-over-year increase of 7% compared to Q2 2024 [13] - Total revenue without the Fairmont Park acquisition was $317 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2.4% [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the Illinois distributed gaming market was $245 million, up over 8% year-over-year [6] - Montana's distributed gaming route grew revenue by 2.6% [7] - Revenue from developing markets, Nebraska and Georgia, increased by 26% and 35.5% respectively, while Nevada's revenue declined by 7.7% due to the loss of a key customer [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Xcel operated approximately 27,400 terminals across more than 4,400 locations, representing year-over-year increases of 3.4% and 3.1% respectively [13] - The local gaming market is estimated at over $15 billion nationally, with Xcel focusing on smaller, less professional operators for acquisition opportunities [11][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Xcel aims to leverage its competitive position and healthy balance sheet to pursue a multi-pronged growth strategy, focusing on overlooked M&A opportunities [6][11] - The company plans to enhance its operating expertise and expand its footprint while maintaining strong financial discipline [11][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the local gaming segment's resilience and growth potential, expecting continued revenue and EBITDA growth [6][22] - The company is optimistic about the contributions from the Fairmont Park Casino and Racing, as well as the revenue-sharing agreement with FanDuel [10][22] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for Q2 totaled approximately $26 million, with a full-year forecast of $75 million to $80 million [19][20] - The company repurchased 634,000 shares at an average price of $10.58 per share, totaling $6.7 million in Q2 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth in Illinois market - Management noted consistent growth throughout the quarter without significant peaks or valleys [26] Question: M&A opportunities and leverage - Management stated they are opportunistic in acquisitions but will not leverage the company excessively, maintaining a conservative approach [28][29] Question: Impact of Tito implementation in Illinois - Management indicated it is too early to assess the impact of Tito, with expectations for improved player experience and reduced collection costs in the future [38] Question: Nevada market growth post key customer loss - Management reported slight revenue growth year-over-year despite the loss of a key customer, focusing on higher-margin locations [40][41] Question: Performance expectations for Fairmont Park - Management expressed positive indicators for Fairmont Park, aligning with internal expectations, and anticipates significant contributions in 2026 [44][45]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached a record of $336 million, an 8.6% increase compared to Q2 2024[24] - Excluding the acquisition of Fairmount Park and Toucan Gaming (Louisiana), revenue was $317 million, a 2.4% increase compared to Q2 2024[24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was a record $53 million, a 7.1% increase compared to Q2 2024, driven by an increase in locations and gaming terminals[24] - Net income decreased by 50.2% to $7 million, partially due to a $6 million loss on the change in the fair value of contingent earnout shares[24] Capital Allocation - Capital expenditures (CapEx) totaled $26 million in Q2 2025 and $53 million year-to-date, with a full-year forecast of $75-80 million[27] - The company repurchased $7 million of Accel Class A-1 Common Stock in Q2 2025, bringing the total to $160 million since November 2021[27] - Since fourth quarter 2021, Accel repurchased 16% of its shares outstanding at an average price of $10.37[21] Operational Growth - As of June 30, 2025, Accel operated 27,388 gaming terminals across 4,427 locations in Illinois, Montana, Nevada, Louisiana, Nebraska and Georgia[13] - Locations increased to 4,427, a 3% increase compared to 4,294 in Q2 2024[34] - Terminals increased to 27,388, a 3% increase compared to 26,481 in Q2 2024[34]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 10-Q ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2025 or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from _______ to ______ Commission File Number 001-38136 Accel Entertainment, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of incorp ...

Highlights: Accel CEO Andy Rubenstein commented, "Our record second quarter results demonstrate continued progress and consistent execution with year-over-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth in all of our core and developing markets. Our results reflect the benefits of our disciplined expansion strategy and our successful improvement of the operating results in new and acquired locations. "In our core markets, Illinois and Montana, we continue to use our market-leading position to drive economies of sca ...

Core Viewpoint - Accel Entertainment (ACEL) shares have increased by 3% recently, with a mean price target of $16 indicating a potential upside of 28.2% from the current price of $12.48 [1][2]. Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target for ACEL is $16, with a standard deviation of $0, indicating strong agreement among analysts [2]. - The lowest and highest estimates both suggest a 28.2% upside from the current price level, reflecting a consensus among analysts [2][4]. - Despite the consensus price target being a useful metric, relying solely on it for investment decisions may not be prudent due to historical inaccuracies in analysts' price targets [3][7]. Earnings Estimates and Market Sentiment - Analysts show strong agreement in revising ACEL's earnings estimates higher, which is a positive indicator for potential stock upside [4][11]. - Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACEL's current year earnings has increased by 2%, with no negative revisions [12]. - ACEL holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, suggesting a favorable outlook [13]. Conclusion on Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not reliably predict the extent of ACEL's gains, the direction indicated by the price movement appears to be a valid guide for potential investment [14].

Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Whil ...

While "the trend is your friend" when it comes to short-term investing or trading, timing entries into the trend is a key determinant of success. And increasing the odds of success by making sure the sustainability of a trend isn't easy.Often, the direction of a stock's price movement reverses quickly after taking a position in it, making investors incur a short-term capital loss. So, it's important to ensure that there are enough factors -- such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate revisions, ...