Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Conch Cement (600585)(00914) achieved a net profit of 4.6 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] Financial Performance - Excluding one-time items related to capacity replacement provisions, the recurring net profit reached 5.1 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year [1] - The better-than-expected performance is attributed to improved profit margins in the overseas cement business and stronger-than-expected results in ready-mixed concrete (RMC) and aggregate businesses [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has reduced its recurring net profit forecast for the current year by 13% to reflect the ongoing low profit margins in the domestic cement market, while maintaining forecasts for the next two years largely unchanged [1] Target Price Changes - The target price for H-shares has been raised from 27 HKD to 31 HKD, and the target price for A-shares (600585.SH) has been increased from 27 RMB to 32 RMB, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Conch Cement (00914) achieved a net profit of 4.6 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] Financial Performance - Excluding one-time items related to capacity replacement provisions, the recurring net profit reached 5.1 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year [1] - The performance exceeded expectations, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins in the overseas cement business and better-than-expected results in ready-mixed concrete (RMC) and aggregate businesses [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs lowered its recurring net profit forecast for the current year by 13% to reflect the ongoing low profit margins in the domestic cement market, while maintaining forecasts for the next two years largely unchanged [1] Target Price Changes - The target price for H-shares was raised from 27 HKD to 31 HKD, and the target price for A-shares (600585.SH) was increased from 27 RMB to 32 RMB, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1]

Summary of Anhui Conch Cement (0914.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Conch Cement - **Stock Codes**: 0914.HK (Hong Kong), 600585.SS (Shanghai) - **Market Cap**: HK$126.8 billion / $16.3 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically Cement Production Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb4.6 billion, EPS of Rmb0.874/share, up 33% YoY [1] - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb5.1 billion, up 32% YoY, excluding one-offs [1] - **Interim Dividend**: Proposed Rmb0.24/share, 27% payout ratio, compared to nil in previous interims [1] - **Sales Volume**: 126 million tons of self-produced cement, flat YoY, outperforming national market decline of -4.3% [23] - **Gross Profit from Cement**: Increased by 34% YoY, driven by higher unit profit in domestic and overseas markets [23] Earnings Estimates and Projections - **2025E Recurring Earnings**: Revised down by 13% due to persistent low cement margins in China [2] - **2026E and 2027E Earnings Growth**: Expected growth of 34% and 3% respectively [2] - **Price Target**: Revised to HK$31.00 / Rmb32.00, implying a 2026E P/E of 10.4x [2] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Expected to be Rmb6.7-12.7 billion in 2025-26E, with a FCF yield of 5.5-10.5% [22] Operational Insights - **Cement Operations**: Contributed 84% of total gross profit, with improved overseas margins from pricing recovery in Uzbekistan and Cambodia [23] - **Aggregate and RMC Operations**: Gross profit above expectations, with RMC sales up 3% YoY [24] - **Cost Management**: Total SG&A better than expected due to lower administrative costs [25] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow increased by 21% YoY in 1H25A, with slight improvements in working capital management [26] Market and Industry Outlook - **Cement Pricing**: Expected to improve in 2026E and 2027E due to industry control on unauthorized capacity [2][38] - **Risks**: 1. Weaker-than-expected property and infrastructure demand affecting utilization and pricing [40] 2. Slower exit from unauthorized cement capacity leading to depressed prices [40] 3. Increased competition and potential new production lines affecting market share [40] 4. Rising raw material costs impacting margins [40] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: 2025E at 11.4x, 2026E at 7.9x [13] - **P/B Ratios**: 2025E at 0.6x, 2026E at 0.6x [13] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to be 4.3% in 2025E and 6.5% in 2026E [22] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on Anhui Conch Cement, with an attractive risk-reward profile based on potential margin improvements and strong cash flow generation [2][38]

海螺水泥(600585.SH)公告称，2025年上半年营业收入412.92亿元，同比下降9.38%。归属于上市公司股 东的净利润43.68亿元，同比增长31.34%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][6]. Core Views - Conch Cement's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 41.292 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.34% to CNY 4.368 billion [3]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to a reduction in material trading and a slight decrease in sales volume, with self-produced cement clinker sales at 126 million tons, down 0.35% year-on-year [4]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 25.2%, up 6.27 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower fuel and power costs [4]. - The annualized return on equity for the first half of 2025 was 4.63%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability despite still being at a relatively low level historically [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 9.369 billion, CNY 10.404 billion, and CNY 11.667 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.77, CNY 1.96, and CNY 2.20 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Conch Cement achieved a net profit of CNY 4.368 billion, a 31.34% increase year-on-year, with a basic EPS of CNY 0.83 [3]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.2%, reflecting a significant improvement due to cost reductions [4]. Market Position and Strategy - Conch Cement is focusing on enhancing operational quality and seizing market consolidation opportunities amid a challenging industry environment [5]. - The company aims to increase market share through strategic acquisitions and overseas expansion, leveraging its scale and technological advancements [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 9.369 billion, CNY 10.404 billion, and CNY 11.667 billion, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 13.99 to 11.23 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in net profit by 31.34% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue decline of 9.38% [4] - The company's main business revenue showed positive growth, with a 2.31% increase in main business revenue, even as overall revenue decreased [4] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in profitability within the industry, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 95.11 billion, 102.96 billion, and 113.99 billion respectively [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 412.92 billion yuan, down 9.38% year-on-year, while net profit reached 43.68 billion yuan, up 31.34% [4] - The second quarter saw revenue of 222.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 40.26% to 25.57 billion yuan [4] Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales volume for cement clinker was 126 million tons, a decline of 0.35%, which outperformed the industry average [4] - The company’s main business segments, including cement clinker, aggregates, and commercial concrete, generated revenues of 306.58 billion, 21.12 billion, and 15.19 billion yuan respectively [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company experienced a significant improvement in profitability due to rising sales prices and declining costs, with gross profit margin increasing from 21.8% to 28.7% [4] - The average revenue per ton of cement clinker increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, while the cost per ton decreased by 14 yuan to 174 yuan [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its business through new projects and acquisitions, including a successful contract in Xinjiang and ongoing overseas projects that have enhanced its market competitiveness [4] - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, with a mid-term dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 12.66 billion yuan, representing 29% of the net profit for the first half of the year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve as industry policies are anticipated to strengthen, leading to a continued recovery in the cement sector [3][9] - The company has demonstrated cost leadership during downturns and is expanding its operations, providing new growth momentum [9] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.368 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3% [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, accounting for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [8] - The company's cement and clinker sales volume was 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable market position [8] - The average selling price per ton of cement increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, with gross profit per ton rising by 18 yuan to 70 yuan, benefiting from industry self-discipline and improved demand [8] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous quarters [8] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion yuan, an increase of 1.416 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to improved profitability and reduced costs [3] - Capital expenditures were reduced by 19% year-on-year to approximately 62.1 billion yuan, indicating a continued contraction in capital spending [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the cement industry is likely to continue its recovery due to strengthened self-discipline and favorable policies, with expectations for improved profitability [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stability in the second half of the year [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongwu Securities has given Conch Cement (600585.SH) an "overweight" rating based on several positive indicators [1] - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend as disclosed in its 2025 interim report [1] - Cement prices are expected to rise while the company continues to expand its operations, solidifying its leading position in the industry [1] Group 2 - Overall expenses are stable, and the net profit per ton continues to show a recovery trend [1] - Operating cash flow has increased year-on-year, while capital expenditure is expected to continue to decrease [1] - Under the guiding policies against excessive competition, industry policies are likely to strengthen, leading to an improved outlook for the cement industry [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 41.292 billion RMB, down 9.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.3% to 4.368 billion RMB [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 RMB per share, which accounts for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's cement and clinker sales volume reached 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable leading position in the market [2] - The average price per ton of cement increased by 4 RMB to 244 RMB, while the gross profit per ton rose by 18 RMB to 70 RMB, benefiting from improved industry supply discipline and strong demand in Q1 [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [2][3] Group 2: Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion RMB, an increase of 1.416 billion RMB year-on-year, driven by improved profitability and reduced costs of raw materials [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 28.9% year-on-year to 4.063 billion RMB, reflecting a continued reduction in capital spending [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry has seen a significant rebound in profitability since Q4 2024, driven by enhanced industry self-discipline, although demand fluctuations and downward pressures still affect price stability [4] - The company is expected to benefit from upcoming industry policies aimed at optimizing supply-side dynamics, which may lead to improved profitability [4] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to lower-than-expected demand in Q2, with projected profits of 9.46 billion RMB, 11.18 billion RMB, and 12.62 billion RMB respectively [4]

| | | 统计截止日｜区间股价涨跌幅｜股东户数｜ 增减 ｜増减比例｜户均持股市值（元）｜户均持股数（股） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-30 | -4.64% | 224010 4483 | 2.04% | 38.33万 | 1.79万 | | 2025-02-28 | -2.19% | 219527 -1729 | -0.78% | 42.38万 | 1.82万 | | 2024-12-31 | 0.81% | 221256 -43572 -16.45% | | 42.99万 | 1.81万 | 证券之星消息，近日海螺水泥披露，截至2025年6月30日公司股东户数为22.4万户，较2月28日增加 4483.0户，增幅为2.04%。户均持股数量由上期的1.82万股减少至1.79万股，户均持股市值为38.33万 元。 在水泥行业个股中，海螺水泥股东户数高于行业平均水平，截至6月30日，水泥行业平均股东户数为 5.73万户。户均持股市值方面，水泥行业A股上市公司户均持股市值为20.44万元，海螺水泥高于行业平 均水平。 从股价来看 ...