Financial Performance - Consolidated net income applicable to common shareholders increased by $2.56 billion to $3.72 billion in Q3 2025, and increased by $3.71 billion to $6.36 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024, primarily due to higher underwriting income and gains on dispositions [239]. - Total revenues increased by 3.8% to $17.26 billion in Q3 2025 and increased by 5.8% to $50.34 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024, driven by higher auto and homeowners insurance policies in force and premium rate increases [242]. - Net investment income rose by $166 million to $949 million in Q3 2025 and increased by $298 million to $2.56 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024, primarily due to improved market-based and performance-based investment results [243]. - Underwriting income for Allstate Protection was $3.04 billion in Q3 2025, up from $555 million in Q3 2024, and totaled $4.69 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to $1.32 billion in the same period of 2024 [250]. - Premiums written increased by 6.3% to $15.63 billion in Q3 2025 and increased by 6.7% to $44.97 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024, reflecting higher auto and homeowners insurance policies in force [251]. Cost Management - Total costs and expenses decreased to $13.16 billion in Q3 2025 from $15.21 billion in Q3 2024, and totaled $43.71 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to $44.29 billion in the same period of 2024 [249]. - The expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 21.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 21.5% in Q3 2024 [298]. - Total underwriting expenses rose by $224 million or 7.6% to $3,173 million in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 [298]. Investment Performance - Total investments reached $82.33 billion as of September 30, 2025, up from $72.61 billion as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to operating and investment cash flows [314]. - Fixed income securities totaled $57.19 billion as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $52.75 billion as of December 31, 2024 [320]. - The company reported a net investment income of $2,557 million for the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 13.2% or $298 million compared to the same period in 2024 [337]. - The company’s total equity securities reached a fair value of $5,338 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $4,463 million at the end of 2024 [336]. Underwriting and Claims - The loss ratio for the third quarter of 2025 improved to 58.3%, compared to 74.9% in the same quarter of 2024, indicating better claims management [262]. - The combined ratio for the third quarter of 2025 was 80.1%, a notable improvement from 96.4% in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting enhanced underwriting performance [262]. - Catastrophe losses for the third quarter of 2025 were $558 million, down from $1.70 billion in the same period of 2024, contributing to improved underwriting results [264]. - The auto loss ratio decreased by 11.3 points to 60.6% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, driven by increased earned premiums and lower claim frequency [279]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 4.0 million common shares for $805 million during the first nine months of 2025, representing 1.5% of total common shares outstanding at the end of 2024 [350]. - The company paid dividends totaling $773 million in the first nine months of 2025, with a maximum estimated dividend capacity of $3.95 billion through February 2026 [359]. Risk Management - Key risks include actual claim costs exceeding reserves and unexpected increases in claim frequency or severity [364]. - The company emphasizes the importance of managing risks related to cybersecurity and information security controls [364]. - Regulatory limitations on rate increases and underwriting standards could affect financial performance [364]. - The availability and cost of reinsurance are critical factors for the company's operations [364].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2025 reached $17.3 billion, a 3.8% increase from the prior year[5] - Net income applicable to common shareholders was $3.7 billion, compared to $1.2 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting strong operating results[5] - Adjusted net income was $3.0 billion, or $11.17 per diluted share, up from $1.0 billion in the prior year quarter[5] - Total revenues for Q3 2025 reached $17,255 million, a 3.8% increase from $16,627 million in Q3 2024[27] - Net income applicable to common shareholders for Q3 2025 was $3,717 million, compared to $1,161 million in Q3 2024, representing a 220.5% increase[27] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $2,976 million, up from $1,048 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 184.5% increase[31] - Earnings per common share (diluted) for Q3 2025 was $13.95, significantly higher than $4.33 in Q3 2024, indicating a 222.5% increase[31] Insurance Operations - Policies in force increased to 209.5 million, driven by growth in Protection Plans and auto and homeowners insurance[2] - Property-Liability earned premiums rose to $14.5 billion, a 6.1% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher average premiums[7] - Underwriting income for Property-Liability was $2.9 billion, compared to $495 million in the prior year quarter[7] - New property-liability products and expanded marketing efforts are expected to drive continued growth in the future[2] - The homeowners insurance combined ratio improved to 71.5, 26.7 points lower than the third quarter of 2024, due to lower catastrophe losses and higher average earned premiums[17] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Auto Insurance decreased to 82.0% in Q3 2025 from 94.8% in Q3 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency[38] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Homeowners Insurance significantly improved to 71.5% in Q3 2025 from 98.2% in Q3 2024, driven by a reduction in catastrophe losses[39] - The combined ratio for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was 89.4%, an improvement from 96.9% in the same period of 2024, indicating overall better performance year-over-year[38] Catastrophe Losses - Catastrophe losses decreased by 67.2% to $558 million compared to $1.7 billion in the prior year quarter[6] - Catastrophe losses decreased to $479 million, down $752 million from the prior year quarter, attributed to fewer and less severe events[17] - Catastrophe losses for the Property-Liability segment decreased to (3.8%) in Q3 2025 from (12.4%) in Q3 2024, contributing to the improved combined ratio[38] - The effect of catastrophe losses for Allstate Protection - Homeowners Insurance decreased to (12.3%) in Q3 2025 from (36.2%) in Q3 2024, highlighting a significant reduction in impact from catastrophic events[39] Investment Income - Net investment income increased to $949 million, up $166 million from the prior year quarter, reflecting market-based portfolio growth[19] - Market-based investment income was $780 million, a 10.2% increase compared to the prior year quarter, due to increased asset balances[22] - Net investment income for Q3 2025 was $949 million, an increase from $783 million in Q3 2024, marking a 21.2% rise[27] Shareholder Returns - Total estimated statutory surplus in the insurance companies rose to $22.5 billion, with $624 million returned to common shareholders through share repurchases and dividends[21]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is set to release its third-quarter 2025 results on November 5, with earnings estimated at $8.20 per share, more than double the prior-year quarter's figure [1][5] - The revenue consensus estimate stands at $17.4 billion, reflecting a 5.9% growth from the same quarter last year [2] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The third-quarter earnings estimate has seen four upward revisions in the last 30 days, with no downward movements [2] - Allstate has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] Historical Performance - Allstate has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 57.67% [3] Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth is expected to be driven by improved net premiums earned due to higher policies in force, with net earned premiums projected to grow 8.3% year over year to $15.5 billion [5][6] - The Property-Liability segment is anticipated to benefit from higher earned premiums, with a consensus estimate of $14.8 billion, indicating a 7.8% increase from the previous year [7] Investment Income - Net investment income is expected to rise to $832 million, marking a 6.3% improvement from the prior-year quarter [6] Underwriting Challenges - Catastrophe losses are projected to impact underwriting results, with management forecasting pre-tax catastrophe losses of $558 million for the quarter [8] - Claims expenses are expected to increase by 2.7% year over year to $10.7 billion, which may pressure overall margins [10] Segment Performance - The Protection Services segment is expected to see revenue growth, with estimates pegged at $899 million, reflecting an 8.1% increase from the prior-year quarter [9]

Core Insights - The MSCI ESG rating for Goodstar (ALL.US) has been upgraded from A to AA as of October 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The upgrade reflects an improvement in the company's environmental, social, and governance practices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's stock has underperformed recently, returning -9.8% over the past month compared to the S&P 500's +3.6% and the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry's -5.2% [1] Earnings Estimate Revisions - Allstate is expected to post earnings of $6.73 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +72.1% and a +7.2% change in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last 30 days [4] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $23.35, indicating a year-over-year change of +27.5% and an +8% change over the last 30 days [4] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $22.84, showing a decrease of -2.2% from the previous year, with a +0.1% change over the past month [5] - Allstate holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), influenced by recent changes in earnings estimates and other related factors [6] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $17.35 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +5.9% [10] - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is $69.01 billion, reflecting a +7.3% change, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $72.58 billion, indicating a +5.2% change [10] Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Allstate generated revenues of $16.78 billion, a year-over-year increase of +6.1%, with an EPS of $5.94 compared to $1.61 a year ago [11] - The reported revenues were -2.91% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the EPS exceeded estimates by +78.92% [11] - Allstate has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters but has only topped revenue estimates once during this period [12] Valuation - Allstate is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [16]

Core Points - The Trust in Practice Awards were launched by Allstate and the Aspen Institute to enhance community relationships and build trust across America [1][2] - Allstate has committed up to $5 million in grants to support community organizations focused on civic engagement and intergenerational participation [1][2] Group 1: Importance of Trust - Trust is essential for community health, with only 41% of Americans currently expressing trust in one another, reflecting a broader decline over the past three decades [6] - Individuals who trust others are significantly more likely to assist friends and neighbors, fostering a culture of mutual aid [6] - 74% of Americans feel optimistic about their community's future, indicating potential for rebuilding trust [6] Group 2: Trust in Practice Awards Overview - The awards support non-profit organizations working on initiatives to build trust within local or virtual communities [3] - Grantees will join a national network focused on fostering trust through the Alliance for Social Trust's programs [3] - Award recipients will participate in the annual Trust in Practice Summit to celebrate trust-building efforts [3] Group 3: Application and Selection Criteria - Applications must include a lead partner non-profit collaborating with at least two other organizations to promote intergenerational volunteering [7] - Grants will be awarded based on community trust impact, leadership strength, execution capabilities, and potential for extending learnings [7] - Selected organizations will receive a minimum grant of $100,000 [7] Group 4: Organizational Background - Allstate Corporation provides protection for various aspects of life, with over 208 million policies in force [8] - The Aspen Institute is a global nonprofit focused on igniting human potential and addressing societal challenges [9] - The Alliance for Social Trust aims to enhance social trust in the U.S. by connecting community organizations and national institutions [10]

Core Insights - Identity theft is increasing earlier than expected, with a significant rise in fraudulent account activity observed in October, surpassing the typical peak months of November and December [2][5] - Allstate reported preventing over $9 million in potential losses from fraud applications and new account scams in October 2024, with fraud applications constituting nearly 70% of all cases [3][7] - New account fraud is identified as the most financially damaging type of fraud, with estimated losses exceeding $7.3 million [3][7] Fraud Trends - A seasonal spike in employment-related scams is noted, targeting job seekers through fake postings and payroll schemes [4] - Scammers are adapting their tactics to exploit consumer urgency during peak shopping periods, particularly in October [5] - The overall volume of scam activity is expected to remain high in November and December, with increasing financial stakes as the holiday season approaches [5] Types of Scams - Aggressive scams targeting holiday shoppers include fake online retail stores, TikTok Shop scams, phishing attacks, and package delivery scams [8] - Risks associated with third-party platforms and secondhand marketplaces are highlighted, including less stringent seller verification and compromised payment security [9] Protective Measures - Allstate offers tools like Allstate Digital Footprint to help consumers stay ahead of scams, with identity restoration specialists available to assist victims [10] - Recommendations for safe online shopping include using credit cards, tracking purchases, and being cautious of suspicious deals [6]

Core Insights - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance (P&C) industry is expected to benefit from prudent underwriting, exposure growth, and accelerated digitalization, with key players like The Travelers Companies, Allstate, Cincinnati Financial, CNA Financial, and Axis Capital poised for growth despite rising catastrophic events [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry includes companies providing commercial and personal property insurance, casualty insurance products, and services, with premiums being the primary revenue source [3]. - The industry is experiencing soft pricing after a period of improved pricing, influenced by factors such as interest rate cuts and inflation [2][3]. Trends Impacting the Industry - Catastrophes are a major concern, leading to rate increases to ensure claims payouts, with global commercial insurance rates falling 4% in the third quarter [4]. - The personal auto insurance segment is expected to perform strongly due to improved investment returns and reduced claims, with gross premiums projected to grow significantly by 2030 [4][5]. - Increased adoption of technology, including AI and insurtech, is transforming operations and enhancing efficiency within the industry [7][8]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The Property and Casualty Insurance industry has underperformed compared to its sector and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of 6.8% compared to 12.5% and 14.9% for the sector and S&P 500, respectively [11]. - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 8.79X and the sector's 4.23X [13]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Consolidation within the property and casualty industry is expected to continue as companies seek to diversify operations and gain market share, supported by strong capital levels [6]. Company-Specific Insights - **Travelers Companies**: Positioned for growth with high retention and improved pricing, expected earnings growth of 12.3% and 7.6% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [19][20]. - **Allstate**: Anticipates premium improvements from rate increases and strategic acquisitions, with earnings growth of 0.1% and 22% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [23][24]. - **Cincinnati Financial**: Focused on growth through better pricing and disciplined expansion, with a projected earnings growth of 31.1% for 2026 [27][28]. - **Axis Capital**: Aims for growth in specialty underwriting, with expected earnings growth of 8.7% and 1.9% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [31][32]. - **CNA Financial**: Maintains a favorable combined ratio and is well-positioned for growth, with projected earnings growth of 4.3% for 2026 [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate (ALL) has experienced an 8.3% decline in stock price over the past two weeks, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging to counteract selling pressure [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottom in the stock price, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting [2][5]. - A hammer pattern forms when there is a small candle body with a long lower wick, indicating that the stock opened lower, made a new low, but closed near its opening price after finding support [4][5]. - This pattern is significant when it occurs at the bottom of a downtrend, signaling that bears may be losing control [5]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Allstate, which is a bullish indicator for the stock [7]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 8.6% over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [8]. - Allstate currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [9][10].

Company Overview - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is currently positioned as an intriguing investment choice due to solid earnings estimate revisions and a favorable Zacks Industry Rank [1][3]. Industry Analysis - The Property and Casualty industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 40 out of more than 250 industries, indicating a strong position compared to other segments [2]. - Broad trends in the Property and Casualty space are positively impacting securities across the board, suggesting a rising tide effect [2]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past month, Allstate's current quarter earnings estimates have increased from $6.00 per share to $6.53 per share, while current year estimates have risen from $22.20 per share to $23.08 per share [4]. - These revisions reflect a more bullish outlook from analysts regarding Allstate's short and long-term prospects [3][4]. Investment Recommendation - Given the strong industry position and positive estimate revisions, Allstate is recommended as a solid pick for investors seeking opportunities in a robust industry segment [5].