Financial Performance - Consolidated net income applicable to common shareholders decreased 52.4% to $566 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to higher catastrophe and realized capital losses [230]. - Total revenues increased 7.8% to $16.45 billion in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by premium rate increases and higher homeowners insurance policies in force [230]. - Allstate Protection underwriting income was $364 million in Q1 2025, down from $903 million in Q1 2024, due to higher catastrophe losses of $2.20 billion compared to $731 million in the prior year [236]. - Protection Services adjusted net income was $55 million in Q1 2025, slightly up from $54 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to premium growth at Allstate Protection Plans [238]. - Allstate Health and Benefits adjusted net income decreased to $30 million in Q1 2025 from $56 million in Q1 2024, mainly due to increased benefit utilization [240]. Premiums and Underwriting - Premiums written increased 8.5% to $14.30 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting higher premiums in auto and homeowners insurance [237]. - Premiums written increased by 8.4% or $1,114 million to $14,297 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [247]. - Underwriting income decreased by 59.7% or $539 million to $364 million in Q1 2025 due to higher catastrophe losses [247]. - Catastrophe losses increased significantly to $2,202 million in Q1 2025 from $731 million in Q1 2024 [247]. - The loss ratio rose to 76.0% in Q1 2025 from 72.4% in Q1 2024, while the combined ratio increased to 97.4% from 93.0% [260]. Segment Performance - Auto premiums written increased by 5.2% or $491 million to $9,848 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [251]. - Homeowners premiums written increased by 20.1% or $579 million to $3,453 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [252]. - Other personal lines premiums written increased by 10.5% or $69 million to $729 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [257]. - Commercial lines premiums written decreased by 40.1% or $63 million to $94 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 due to strategic decisions [257]. - Premiums written in the Protection Services Segment increased by 4.8% or $30 million to $657 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [289]. Investment and Capital - Investments totaled $74.05 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from $72.61 billion as of December 31, 2024 [231]. - Book value per diluted common share increased 19.8% to $74.61 as of March 31, 2025, compared to $62.27 as of March 31, 2024 [232]. - Total capital resources increased to $30.14 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from $29.53 billion at the end of 2024 [333]. - The ratio of debt to Allstate shareholders' equity improved to 36.7% as of March 31, 2025, compared to 37.7% at the end of 2024 [333]. - The company has commitments to invest an additional $3.25 billion in limited partnership interests as of March 31, 2025 [320]. Claims and Loss Ratios - The auto loss ratio decreased by 6.1 points to 69.3% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by increased earned premiums and lower non-catastrophe losses [261]. - The homeowners loss ratio increased by 31.5 points to 91.8% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to higher catastrophe losses [262]. - Catastrophe losses rose to $2.20 billion in Q1 2025, an increase of $1.47 billion from Q1 2024, with $1.06 billion attributed to California wildfires [266]. - The commercial lines loss ratio decreased by 57.0 points to 58.4% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to lower losses despite a decrease in earned premiums [264]. Future Expectations and Risks - The company expects to record a gain of approximately $625 million from the sale of its employer voluntary benefits business, which closed on April 1, 2025 [225]. - The company anticipates a gain of approximately $450 million from the sale of its group health business, expected to close in 2025 [295]. - Forward-looking statements indicate potential risks related to market conditions, regulatory changes, and operational challenges that could impact future performance [350].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $16.5 billion, a 7.8% increase from the prior year[6] - Net income applicable to common shareholders was $566 million, down 52.4% from $1.2 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to elevated catastrophe losses[6] - Adjusted net income was $949 million, or $3.53 per diluted share, compared to $1.4 billion in the prior year quarter[6] - Adjusted net income for the first quarter was $949 million, down from $1,367 million in the prior year quarter, reflecting a decrease in net income applicable to common shareholders from $1,189 million to $566 million[32] - Adjusted net income for the twelve months ended March 2025 was $4,488 million, compared to $1,960 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a significant increase[36] Insurance Premiums and Policies - Property-Liability earned premiums increased by 8.7% to $14.0 billion, driven by higher average premiums[8] - Total policies in force grew by 6.7% to 210.6 million, reflecting strong demand for insurance products[7] - Premiums and contract charges for health and benefits increased by 1.9%, or $9 million, compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to growth in Individual Health and Group Health[23] - Total revenues for the first quarter increased to $16,452 million, up from $15,259 million in the prior year quarter, with property and casualty insurance premiums rising to $14,698 million[28] Catastrophe Losses - Catastrophe losses for the quarter were $2.2 billion, significantly higher than $731 million in the prior year[7] - The recorded homeowners insurance combined ratio was 112.3, 30.2 points higher than the prior year, reflecting increased catastrophe losses[16] - The effect of catastrophe losses on the combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment was (15.7) for the three months ended March 2025, compared to (5.7) in 2024[39] Investment Income - Net investment income for Q1 2025 was $854 million, up $90 million from the prior year due to portfolio growth[22] - Market-based investment income rose to $719 million, an increase of $93 million, or 14.9%, compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher yields in the $63.5 billion market-based portfolio[24] - Net losses on investments and derivatives were $349 million in the first quarter, compared to losses of $164 million in the prior year quarter, primarily due to losses on fixed income securities and equity investments[24] - The total return on the investment portfolio was 1.4% for the first quarter of 2025 and 4.7% for the latest twelve months[24] Business Transactions - The sale of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business closed on April 1, 2025, generating a financial book gain of approximately $625 million[20] - The completion of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business sale and the agreement to sell the Group Health business are expected to enhance growth opportunities and create value for shareholders[25] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase program and a quarterly dividend increase to $1.00 per common share[25] - Return on Allstate common shareholders' equity for the twelve months ended March 2025 was 21.4%, up from 7.6% in 2024[36] - The adjusted net income return on Allstate common shareholders' equity for the twelve months ended March 2025 was 23.7%, up from 11.3% in 2024[36] Assets and Reserves - Total assets increased to $115,161 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $111,617 million at the end of the prior year[27] - The reserve for property and casualty insurance claims and claims expense rose to $43,835 million, up from $41,917 million in the prior year[27] Combined Ratios - The underlying combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment for the three months ended March 2025 was 83.1%, an improvement from 86.9% in 2024[39] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Auto Insurance for the three months ended March 2025 was 91.3%, down from 96.0% in 2024[40] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Homeowners Insurance for the three months ended March 2025 was 112.3%, compared to 82.1% in 2024, indicating a significant increase[41] - The effect of prior year non-catastrophe reserve reestimates on the combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment was 1.7 for the three months ended March 2025, compared to (0.1) in 2024[39]

Property and casualty insurance provider The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $2.27 per shareon revenues of $17.13 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)The first-quarter earnings estimate declined 37.3% over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of ...

Core Viewpoint - Allstate (ALL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.12 per share, reflecting a significant decline of 58.7% year over year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 11% to $17.13 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.1% higher in the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reevaluation of their initial estimates [1][2] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Property-Liability- Net Premiums Earned' at $14.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.8% [4] - 'Property-Liability- Net Investment Income' is expected to be $742.13 million, up 5.7% from the previous year [4] - 'Property-Liability- Other Revenue' is forecasted to reach $485.47 million, indicating a 12.9% increase year over year [4] - 'Allstate Health and Benefits- Other Revenue' is estimated at $132.46 million, reflecting a slight decline of 1.2% [5] Key Ratios - The 'Combined Ratio - Property-liability' is projected at 97.6%, up from 93% in the same quarter last year [5] - The 'Loss Ratio - Property-liability' is expected to be 74.8%, compared to 72.4% in the previous year [6] - The 'Expense Ratio - Property-liability' is estimated at 22.5%, an increase from 20.6% year over year [6] - The 'Expense Ratio - Homeowners' is projected at 22.2%, compared to 21.8% last year [7] - The 'Loss Ratio - Auto' is expected to be 71.1%, down from 75.4% in the previous year [7] - The 'Combined Ratio - Homeowners' is forecasted at 106.8%, significantly higher than 82.1% reported last year [7] - The 'Combined Ratio - Auto' is projected at 94.3%, down from 96% in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Loss Ratio - Homeowners' is expected to reach 84.6%, compared to 60.3% in the previous year [8] Stock Performance - Allstate shares have decreased by 6.9% over the past month, compared to a 4.8% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8]

Company Performance - Allstate's stock closed at $194.86, with a slight increase of +0.07% from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 2.03% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate's shares have decreased by 6.95%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 lost 3.37% and 5.07% respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Allstate's earnings report is scheduled for April 30, 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.12, indicating a significant decrease of 58.67% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $17.13 billion, reflecting an increase of 11.04% compared to the previous year [2] Full-Year Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Allstate's full-year earnings are $16.65 per share and revenue of $69.38 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -9.12% and +7.85% respectively [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Allstate are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, currently ranks Allstate as 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Allstate's Forward P/E ratio stands at 11.69, slightly below the industry average of 11.74, suggesting it is trading at a discount [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.24, indicating a more favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [8] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [9]

Group 1 - Allstate's stock closed at $194.73, with a slight increase of +0.43% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.67% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate's shares have decreased by 6.83%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 have lost 4.45% and 6.57%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report on April 30, 2025, is anticipated to show an EPS of $2.34, reflecting a significant decline of 54.39% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to rise to $17.13 billion, an increase of 11.04% [2] - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $16.65 per share and revenue at $69.38 billion, indicating a decline of 9.12% in earnings and an increase of 7.85% in revenue compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent analyst estimate revisions are crucial as they reflect changes in short-term business dynamics, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards Allstate's operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Allstate at 3 (Hold), with a recent 6.42% decrease in the consensus EPS estimate [6] Group 4 - Allstate's Forward P/E ratio stands at 11.64, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 11.74, suggesting a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, compared to the industry's average PEG ratio of 2.11, indicating a more favorable growth expectation relative to its price [7] Group 5 - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 33, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - Allstate (ALL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 54.4%, with quarterly earnings projected at $2.34 per share, while revenues are anticipated to increase by 11% to $17.13 billion [3][12]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for April 30, and the stock may experience upward movement if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2][3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.04% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model indicates that Allstate has a negative Earnings ESP of -11.71%, suggesting a lower Most Accurate Estimate compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate [10][11]. - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, Allstate holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11][18]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Allstate exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $6.51 by delivering earnings of $7.67, resulting in a positive surprise of +17.82% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Allstate has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates on all occasions [13]. Industry Context - NMI Holdings (NMIH), another player in the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, is expected to post earnings of $1.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, with revenues projected at $170.29 million, up 9% [17]. - NMI Holdings has a negative Earnings ESP of -2.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a similar challenge in predicting an earnings beat [18].

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is recognized for its commitment to customer care, aligning with its motto "You are in good hands" [1] - Henriot Capital emphasizes a quant-driven investment strategy, focusing on simplicity and common sense to achieve success [1] - The investment approach at Henriot Capital involves acting on model recommendations without human interference, prioritizing data-driven decisions over individual biases [1]

Core Insights - Catastrophic weather events are increasingly common in Canada, with only 27% of homeowners feeling confident in their preparedness for such events [1] - Allstate's data indicates that 29% of claims over the last decade were due to major weather events, with a significant spike in claims in 2024, approximately 2.4 times higher than in 2023 [2] - The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that 2024 was the costliest year for severe weather-related losses in Canadian history, exceeding $8.5 billion [3] Preparedness Recommendations - Homeowners are advised to create an emergency plan, build an emergency kit, secure their property, prepare for wildfires, and review their insurance coverage [8] - Allstate emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to mitigate damage from severe weather, as personal items are often irreplaceable [4] Research Methodology - A Léger poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadian homeowners to assess their preparedness for extreme weather events, with a margin of error of ± 3.1% for a probabilistic sample [6]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation has successfully divested its Employer Voluntary Benefits business to StanCorp Financial Group for $2 billion, completing the transaction as planned within the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The divestiture resulted in a pre-tax book gain of approximately $625 million, which will enhance Allstate's capital management strategy, including a new $1.5 billion share buyback program running until September 30, 2026 [2] - Allstate is also in the process of divesting its Group Health business to Nationwide for expected proceeds of $1.25 billion, with total proceeds from both divestitures projected to reach $3.25 billion by 2025 [3][4] Strategic Focus - Allstate's divestiture strategy aims to free up capital from lower-return businesses and reinvest it into core operations, particularly in the personal property-liability sector and protection services [5] - The Property-Liability business saw an 11.2% year-over-year increase in earned premiums in 2024, driven by prudent rate hikes, while the Protection Services segment experienced a 16.7% revenue growth, primarily due to strong performance in Allstate Protection Plans and Arity [6] Market Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 19.7% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 24.5%, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]