Core Viewpoint - The recent tariffs imposed by President Trump, particularly the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, are expected to increase car prices and insurance premiums, significantly impacting the auto insurance industry, especially companies like Progressive Corporation (PGR) and Allstate Corporation (ALL) [1]. Group 1: Progressive Corporation (PGR) - PGR is one of the largest auto insurance groups in the U.S., leading in motorcycle and boat policies, commercial auto insurance, and ranking among the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written [3]. - The company has embraced digitalization and AI, with its Snapshot program offering customized pricing, leading to competitive rates and improved policy life expectancy (PLE) across all business lines [4]. - PGR's combined ratio has averaged less than 93% over the past decade, significantly better than the industry average of over 100%, supported by prudent underwriting and favorable reserve development [5]. - The net margin has shown continuous improvement, expanding by 980 basis points in the last two years due to rising demand for personal auto insurance and effective risk management [6]. - PGR's solid cash flow allows for ongoing investments in growth initiatives, including digitalization, while enhancing book value and reducing leverage [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its offerings into homeowners and commercial insurance, with a return on equity of 33.8%, outperforming the industry average of 8.3% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's 2025 revenue and EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 16.1% and 9.8%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending upward [13]. Group 2: Allstate Corporation (ALL) - ALL is the third-largest property-casualty insurer and the largest publicly held personal lines carrier in the U.S., aiming to be a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution capabilities [9]. - The company expects an increase in total Property-Liability policies in force this year, driven by improved auto insurance policy renewal rates and new business growth [9]. - ALL's net margin has improved by 980 basis points over the last two years, supported by prudent underwriting, although it faces challenges in maintaining its combined ratio target in the mid-90s for the auto business due to rising auto claims [10][11]. - The company is focused on reducing losses, which may lead to a decline in the number of policies in force, while facing inflationary pressures and escalating repair costs [11]. - ALL's return on equity stands at 28.2%, also better than the industry average [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL's 2025 revenues and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 2% and 7.9%, respectively, with EPS estimates also moving upward [14]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - PGR is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 5.97X, above its five-year median of 4.65X, while ALL's price-to-book multiple is at 2.51X, also above its median of 1.9X [15]. - PGR has outperformed ALL in terms of share price growth, gaining 26.3% in the past year compared to ALL's 8.1% [18]. - Based on return on equity, PGR is considered a more efficient generator of profit from shareholders' equity compared to ALL, with PGR holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and ALL a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [18].

Core Insights - Catastrophic weather events are increasingly common in Canada, with only 27% of homeowners feeling confident in their preparedness for such events [1] - Allstate's data indicates that 29% of claims over the last decade were due to major weather events, with a significant spike in claims in 2024, approximately 2.4 times higher than in 2023 [2] - The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that 2024 was the costliest year for severe weather-related losses in Canadian history, exceeding $8.5 billion [3] Preparedness Recommendations - Homeowners are advised to create an emergency plan, build an emergency kit, secure their property, prepare for wildfires, and review their insurance coverage [8] - Allstate emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to mitigate damage from severe weather, as personal items are often irreplaceable [4] Research Methodology - A Léger poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadian homeowners to assess their preparedness for extreme weather events, with a margin of error of ± 3.1% for a probabilistic sample [6]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation has successfully divested its Employer Voluntary Benefits business to StanCorp Financial Group for $2 billion, completing the transaction as planned within the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The divestiture resulted in a pre-tax book gain of approximately $625 million, which will enhance Allstate's capital management strategy, including a new $1.5 billion share buyback program running until September 30, 2026 [2] - Allstate is also in the process of divesting its Group Health business to Nationwide for expected proceeds of $1.25 billion, with total proceeds from both divestitures projected to reach $3.25 billion by 2025 [3][4] Strategic Focus - Allstate's divestiture strategy aims to free up capital from lower-return businesses and reinvest it into core operations, particularly in the personal property-liability sector and protection services [5] - The Property-Liability business saw an 11.2% year-over-year increase in earned premiums in 2024, driven by prudent rate hikes, while the Protection Services segment experienced a 16.7% revenue growth, primarily due to strong performance in Allstate Protection Plans and Arity [6] Market Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 19.7% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 24.5%, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Allstate Corporation is well-positioned for growth due to rising premiums, an expanding protection services business, and ongoing streamlining initiatives [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Allstate has a strong earnings surprise history, exceeding estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 127.1% [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth - Net premiums earned have shown consistent growth: 13.9% in 2021, 8.7% in 2022, 10.4% in 2023, and 11.3% in 2024, driven by a diversified portfolio, strategic acquisitions, and disciplined pricing [3] - Contributions from the Property-Liability, Protection Services, and Allstate Health and Benefits segments are expected to sustain top-line growth [4] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Allstate announced an 8.7% increase in its quarterly dividend, effective April 1, 2025 [5] - The company has approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, following the expiration of a previous $5 billion buyback authorization [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in total Property-Liability policies in force due to improved auto insurance policy renewal rates and ongoing new business growth [7] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Allstate is refining its business strategy by focusing on core strengths and divesting underperforming segments, which has led to a 160 basis point improvement in the property-liability adjusted expense ratio year over year in 2024 [8]

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation has successfully completed a multi-year turnaround through effective cost-cutting and business efficiency measures [1] - The years 2022 and 2023 were particularly challenging for the company [1] Group 2 - The company is recognized as one of the largest property and casualty insurance firms in the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - Allstate has recently gained attention as one of the most searched stocks, with a notable performance compared to the broader market and its industry [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, Allstate is expected to report earnings of $3.98 per share, reflecting a decrease of -22.4% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate change of -3.8% over the last 30 days [5]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $18.62, indicating a slight increase of +1.6% from the previous year, with a minor change of -0.2% in the last month [5]. - For the next fiscal year, the earnings estimate is $21.64, suggesting a growth of +16.2% year-over-year, with an increase of +1.8% in the past month [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $17.13 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +11% [9]. - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimates are $69.64 billion and $74.95 billion for the next fiscal year, indicating changes of +8.3% and +7.6%, respectively [9]. Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Allstate achieved revenues of $16.71 billion, a year-over-year increase of +12.1%, with an EPS of $7.67 compared to $5.82 a year ago [10]. - The reported revenues were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing a surprise of -0.01%, while the EPS surprise was +17.82% [11]. - Allstate has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and topped revenue estimates three times during this period [11]. Valuation - Allstate is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [15]. - The evaluation of valuation multiples such as P/E, P/S, and P/CF is essential to determine if the stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued [13][14]. Conclusion - The current Zacks Rank of 3 suggests that Allstate may perform in line with the broader market in the near term, despite the market buzz surrounding the stock [16].

Group 1: Catastrophe Losses - The Allstate Corporation reported catastrophe losses for February 2025 amounting to $92 million, or $73 million after-tax, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.17 billion, or $922 million after-tax when combined with January's losses [1] - Catastrophe losses negatively impact underwriting profits and the combined ratio, leading to potential strain on margins for property and casualty (P&C) insurers [2] - In 2024, total catastrophe losses reached $5 billion, while P&C insurance premiums earned increased by 11.2% year over year [3] Group 2: Policy Updates - Allstate's auto policies in force increased to 24.89 million in February 2025, a 0.2% increase from January, but a 0.9% decline from February 2024 [4] - Homeowners policies in force rose to 7.5 million, reflecting a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth [4] - Personal lines policies in force slightly increased to 4.873 million, marking a 0.1% month-over-month increase and a 0.4% year-over-year increase [5] - Commercial lines policies in force decreased to 196,000, a 3.9% decline from January and a 29% decrease from February 2024 [6] - Overall, Allstate had 37.5 million policies in force at the end of February 2025, a 0.2% increase from the prior month but a 0.3% decrease from the same period last year [7] Group 3: Share Price Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 27.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 24.8% [8] Group 4: Competitor Analysis - Competitors in the P&C insurance space include The Hanover Insurance Group, Old Republic International Corporation, and Horace Mann Educators Corporation, with varying Zacks Ranks indicating their investment potential [9] - Hanover Insurance has shown strong earnings performance, with a 21.74% average surprise over the last four quarters and a projected 7.7% improvement in 2025 earnings [10] - Old Republic has consistently outperformed estimates, with a 37.25% average surprise and a projected 5% improvement in 2025 earnings [11] - Horace Mann's earnings have surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters, with a projected 21.7% improvement in 2025 earnings [12] - In the past year, shares of Hanover Insurance, Old Republic, and Horace Mann have gained 33.2%, 26.5%, and 16%, respectively [13]

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's stock has shown resilience in the market, outperforming major indices despite a forecasted decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming quarter while revenue is expected to increase. Group 1: Stock Performance - Allstate's stock closed at $202, reflecting a +1.89% change from the previous trading day's close, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.91% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate shares gained 4.71%, contrasting with the Finance sector's loss of 5.01% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.38% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Allstate is projected to report an EPS of $3.98, representing a 22.42% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $17.13 billion, indicating an 11.04% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Annual Estimates - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $18.62 per share and revenue at $69.64 billion, reflecting changes of +1.64% and +8.26% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on Allstate's business health and profitability [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 1.01% downward over the past month, and Allstate currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Allstate has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.65, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 11.47, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.08, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.68, suggesting a more favorable growth outlook relative to its valuation [7] Group 6: Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, indicating a strong competitive position for Allstate within its industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Several insurance companies, including National General and Allstate, are facing a lawsuit from the New York State Attorney General for failing to protect consumer personal information and mishandling data breaches [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Breaches - The lawsuit alleges that National General failed to notify consumers about a data breach in 2021 and allowed a larger breach to occur in 2022 [2][5]. - The first data breach exposed the driver's license numbers of nearly 12,000 individuals, while the second breach compromised the driver's license numbers of an additional 187,000 consumers [5]. - National General is accused of not implementing reasonable data security measures before and after Allstate took over its data security operations [3][4]. Group 2: Company Responses - Allstate stated that they resolved the issue years ago by securing their systems after identifying vulnerabilities and notified regulators and affected consumers [4]. - The lawsuit seeks penalties and an injunction to prevent any continued violations of data security laws [5].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's recent earnings report indicates strong performance driven by premium growth and investment income, despite facing challenges from elevated catastrophe losses and rising costs [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Allstate reported Q4 2024 adjusted net income of $7.67 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17.8% and showing a nearly 32% year-over-year increase [2]. - Operating revenues for Q4 2024 reached $16.71 billion, a 12.1% increase year-over-year, although it slightly missed consensus estimates [2][4]. - For the full year 2024, operating revenues totaled $64.33 billion, up from $57.39 billion in 2023, and adjusted net income surged to $18.32 per share from $0.95 a year ago [4]. Premiums and Investment Income - Consolidated premiums written in Q4 2024 were $15.06 billion, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year improvement [5]. - Net investment income rose to $833 million, a 46.2% increase year-over-year, driven by repositioning into higher-yielding fixed-income securities [5]. Costs and Expenses - Total costs and expenses increased by 8.1% year-over-year to $14 billion, primarily due to higher property and casualty insurance claims [6]. - Catastrophe losses rose significantly to $410 million from $68 million a year ago [6]. Segment Performance - The Property-Liability segment's premiums earned increased by 10.6% year-over-year to $13.9 billion, although it fell short of estimates by 0.5% [8]. - The Protection Services segment saw revenues of $889 million, a 23.6% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net income rising to $50 million from $4 million [9]. - The Allstate Health and Benefits segment's premium and contract charges improved by 3.2% year-over-year to $482 million, but adjusted net income dropped by 41.7% [10][11]. Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, Allstate had a cash balance of $704 million and total assets of $111.6 billion, up from $103.4 billion a year earlier [12]. - Total equity increased to $21.4 billion from $17.6 billion at the end of 2024 [12]. - Book value per common share was $72.35, reflecting a 21.8% year-over-year increase [13]. Future Outlook - Allstate anticipates an increase in total Property-Liability policies in 2025 as auto insurance policy renewal rates improve [14]. - However, recent estimates have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -27.35% [15][17].