Core Viewpoint - Arista Networks Inc (NYSE:ANET) shares are experiencing a pullback, currently down 4.1% at $94.28, marking their fourth consecutive daily decline and a 15.2% drop year-to-date, but a potential breakout may be on the horizon due to a historically bullish trendline [1] Group 1 - ANET has approached its 200-day moving average after spending 80% of the last two months above it, including 8 of the last 10 trading days [2] - This pattern has historically led to an average gain of 14.4% one month later in 86% of similar instances, suggesting a potential rise to $107.86, which would enhance its 40% year-over-year gain [3] - The stock's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 27.1 indicates an "oversold" condition, typically preceding a short-term bounce [4] Group 2 - Options for ANET appear attractively priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48% ranking in the 14th percentile of its annual range, suggesting low volatility expectations from options traders [4]

Core Viewpoint - Arista Networks reported strong fourth-quarter results and increased its full-year 2025 guidance, yet its stock price declined by over 5% year-to-date, raising questions about potential investment opportunities [1]. Financial Performance - Q4 revenue increased by 25% to $1.93 billion, with adjusted EPS climbing 25% to $0.63, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.9 billion in revenue and $0.57 in adjusted EPS [5]. - Deferred revenue rose by $280 million sequentially to $2.79 billion, indicating potential future revenue growth [6]. - The company ended the quarter with $8.3 billion in cash and marketable securities, having generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow for the year [8]. Customer Dependency - Arista is heavily reliant on hyperscalers, with Microsoft as its largest customer, contributing approximately 20% of revenue, followed by Meta Platforms at just under 15% [3]. - Concerns arose regarding Meta's revenue decline of about 17% for 2024, which impacted Arista's revenue projections [4]. Market Position and Growth Outlook - AI and data center products accounted for 65% of total revenue, with a market share exceeding 40% in high-performance switching [7]. - Arista forecasts a revenue growth of 17% to around $8.2 billion for the upcoming year, with AI revenue expected to be around $1.5 billion [9]. - The company anticipates Q1 revenue to range from $1.93 billion to $1.97 billion, reflecting a growth of 23% to 25% [9]. Competitive Landscape - Despite strong results, investor anxiety persists regarding competition from white-box equipment, which are generic switches that could capture market share from Arista's major customers [2]. - The company differentiates itself through advanced software capabilities, particularly in AI infrastructure [2]. Valuation Considerations - Arista's stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 41 times 2025 analysts' estimates, suggesting that the stock remains expensive despite the recent pullback [12]. - The elevated valuation relative to projected growth raises caution for potential investors [13].

证券研究报告 ARISTA 网络 (ANET US) 4Q 业绩超预期，25 年收入指引稍弱 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 2 月 | 20 日│美国 | 通信设备制造 | 公司公布四季度业绩：4Q24 Arista 实现营收 19.3 亿美元（同比+25%，环 比+7%），高于彭博一致预期的 18.96 亿美元；实现 GAAP 净利润 8.01 亿 美元（同比+31%，环比+7%），高于彭博一致预期的 6.87 亿美元。公司 4Q24 业绩超过我们 11 月的预期（4.68 亿元），主要系公司通过供应链管理录得 较优的毛利率，且当期有效税率较低。以太网在 AI 集群中的渗透率有望持 续拓展，公司作为高端交换机龙头有望持续受益。维持"买入"评级。 数据中心交换机保持龙头地位，大客户 Meta 收入贡献有所下降 分业务来看：2024 年数据中心云网板块收入 12.55 亿美元，占比 65%，公 司在 100G/200G/400G 份额保持 40%以上，公司对 25 年 AI 相关收入 15 亿美元保持乐观；认知邻接板块/认知网络 ...

Group 1 - Arista Networks, Inc. reported a strong end to FY24 with revenue reaching $7 billion, exceeding management's guidance [1] - Management has guided for a 17% growth in FY25, though this may be conservative due to significant capital expenditures among hyperscalers [1] Group 2 - The analyst, Michael Del Monte, has over 5 years of experience in the investment management industry and a decade in professional services across various sectors [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in several major tech companies, including AVGO, META, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, and NVDA, indicating a positive outlook on these stocks [2]. - The analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as professional investment advice, underscoring the need for individual research [3]. - There is a clear disclaimer that past performance does not guarantee future results, which is crucial for investors to understand [4].

The Zacks Communication - Components industry appears well poised to benefit from healthy demand trends and an increasing user propensity to stay abreast of the latest digital innovations. However, volatility in prices due to elevated customer inventory levels, high capital expenditures for infrastructure upgrades, margin erosion, geopolitical conflicts and wars have dented the industry’s profitability.Nevertheless, Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) , Corning Incorporated (GLW) and AudioCodes Ltd. (AUDC) are lik ...

Core Insights - Arista Networks Inc reported strong fourth-quarter results, with sales of $1.93 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase, surpassing Street expectations by 1.5% [2] - Despite positive earnings, shares of Arista Networks declined by 6.05% to $104.41 [5] Analyst Ratings - Piper Sandler's analyst James Fish maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $106 to $108, noting that product billings decelerated to 20% [2] - Needham's analyst Ryan Koontz reaffirmed a Buy rating with a price target of $145, highlighting strong performance and operating margins above 46% for six consecutive quarters [4] Revenue Breakdown - Cloud & AI Titans accounted for 48% of full-year revenues, with the Cloud Titan segment, including Oracle Corp, growing by 33% year-on-year [3][4] - Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 17%, which is below the consensus estimate of 19.4% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Arista Networks' stock is experiencing a decline despite reporting strong fourth-quarter results, indicating that investor expectations may have been higher than the company's guidance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Arista reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.65 on revenue of $1.93 billion for Q4, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $0.57 EPS and $1.9 billion in sales [3]. - Revenue increased by 25.3% year-over-year in Q4, while adjusted earnings per share rose by 25% compared to the prior year [4]. - The company achieved an adjusted gross margin of 64%, attributed to a favorable product mix and supply chain efficiencies [4]. Future Guidance - For Q1, Arista is guiding for sales between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 63% and an adjusted operating margin of 44% [5]. - The midpoint target for sales growth in the current quarter indicates only a 1% sequential increase, following a 6.6% increase in Q4 [6]. AI Revenue Expectations - Arista anticipates approximately $1.5 billion in AI revenue for the year, including $750 million from AI back-end networking clusters [7].

Core Insights - Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, with significant year-over-year growth in revenues and adjusted earnings, driven by robust demand trends and innovative product launches [1][4] Financial Performance - GAAP net income for the reported quarter reached $801 million or 62 cents per share, up from $613.6 million or 48 cents in the previous year, primarily due to higher revenues [2] - Non-GAAP net income was a record high of $830.1 million or 65 cents per share compared to $664.3 million or 52 cents in the year-ago quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8 cents [2] - For the full year 2024, GAAP net income improved to $2.852 billion or $2.23 per share from $2.087 billion or $1.65 in 2023, while non-GAAP net income was $2.91 billion or $2.27 per share compared to $2.199 billion or $1.73 in the previous year [3] Revenue Growth - Revenues surged to $1.93 billion from $1.54 billion in the prior-year quarter, driven by strength in the enterprise vertical and innovative solutions for cloud and enterprise networks [4] - Total revenues for 2024 reached $7 billion, an increase from $5.86 billion in 2023 [5] - Product sales totaled $1.6 billion, up from $1.31 billion in the year-ago quarter, while service revenues increased to $322.3 million from $230.1 million [6] Market Position - The Americas contributed 84% to total revenues, with international revenues making up the remainder, highlighting Arista's strong market traction in high-performance switching products [7] Profitability Metrics - Non-GAAP gross profit rose to $1.23 billion from $1 billion, with respective margins of 64.2% and 65.4%, despite a year-over-year margin decline [8] - Total operating expenses increased to $431.3 million from $359.3 million, with R&D costs rising to $285 million from $211.5 million [9] Cash Flow and Liquidity - In 2024, Arista generated $3.7 billion of net cash from operating activities compared to $2.03 billion in the previous year, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $2.76 billion as of December 31, 2024 [10] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, management expects revenues in the range of $1.93-$1.97 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin estimated at 63% and an operating margin approximated at 44% [12] - For the full year 2025, revenues are expected to improve approximately 17% year over year, with a gross margin of 60-62% and an operating margin of 43-44% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Arista Networks reported strong fourth-quarter results for 2024, with significant revenue growth driven by demand from cloud computing and AI infrastructure, positioning the company as a leader in the data center switch market [4][5][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4 2024 reached $1.93 billion, a 25% increase from Q4 2023, exceeding expectations [2]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $0.65, also a 25% increase year over year, beating analyst estimates [2]. - Adjusted gross margin was 64.2%, while adjusted operating margin was 47%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [2]. Market Position - Arista has surpassed Cisco in both dollar-based and port-based market share in the high-speed data center switch market, driven by increased demand from cloud computing giants investing in AI [3]. - The company achieved over $7 billion in annual revenue for 2024 and is targeting $8.2 billion for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 17% [5]. Revenue Outlook - Arista anticipates that 45% of its long-term revenue will come from cloud and AI giants, with Microsoft and Meta accounting for approximately 39% of total revenue in fiscal 2023 [8]. - The company is focusing on generating $750 million each from campus revenue and AI back-end revenue in 2025 [6]. Market Reaction - Following the fourth-quarter report, Arista's share prices remained stable in after-hours trading, indicating that while the company beat estimates, investor expectations may have been set high [7]. Future Considerations - The growth of Arista is closely tied to the ongoing AI boom, with potential risks if spending from major customers declines [9].