This is my first coverage of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF ). In the article, I will describe the company's business and my opinion on why it is a strong buy.I first entered investing in 2016 as an individual value investor. In 2022, I established the investment firm Libra Capital. I mostly write articles as part of my deep research into a company before I make an investment, whether long or short. For me, a ''hold'' article means don't touch the stock; neither is it a buy nor a short, because I believ ...

Group 1 - Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.90, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 50% of recommendations being Strong Buy and 10% being Buy [2][5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie's current year earnings has declined by 0.1% to $10.17, reflecting analysts' growing pessimism about the company's earnings prospects [14] - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for Abercrombie, suggesting caution despite the positive ABR [15] Group 2 - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their recommendations, often issuing five Strong Buy ratings for every Strong Sell, which may mislead investors [6][10] - The Zacks Rank is a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, driven by earnings estimate revisions, and is updated more frequently than the ABR [8][13] - The ABR may not be up-to-date, while the Zacks Rank reflects timely changes in earnings estimates, making it a better tool for predicting future stock prices [13]

I’m a former buy-side analyst with a generalist background, covering sectors ranging from technology and utilities to retail. I hold a Master of Science in Finance, with a specialization in valuation, and I’m currently on the path to becoming a CFA charterholder. Finance and valuation have long fascinated me, and I’ve dedicated countless hours to studying and exploring this ever-evolving field. I created this blog to document and share my passion, offering my perspectives and insights as I continue my journ ...

Group 1 - The stock market is reaching new highs, prompting a shift towards value stocks, particularly focusing on "fallen angels" that have lost popularity [1] - The analyst has extensive experience in technology companies, having worked on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, and has been advising seed-round startups [1] - The analyst has been contributing to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, with articles syndicated to popular trading apps like Robinhood [1]

Core Insights - Abercrombie & Fitch shares have declined approximately 3.8% since the last earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500 [1] - Recent estimates for Abercrombie have trended downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -9.21% [2] - The stock has an average Growth Score of C, a Momentum Score of F, and a Value Score of A, placing it in the top 20% for value investment strategy [3] - The overall VGM Score for Abercrombie is B, indicating a balanced investment approach [3] - The outlook for Abercrombie is negative, with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting below-average returns in the coming months [4]

Core Points - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. is hosting its annual music festival and fundraiser, The Challenge, on September 19, 2025, to promote mental health [1][15] - The event will feature headliner Post Malone, along with opening acts Young the Giant and Mark Ambor, among others [2] - The Challenge aims to support mental health initiatives through partnerships with six key philanthropic organizations [3] Fundraising and Impact - Since its inception in 2001, The Challenge has raised over $53 million for its non-profit partners [4] - Funds from this year's event will benefit all six non-profit partners focused on mental health [4] - The event is designed to break the stigma around mental health and provide resources for youth and young adults [3] Event Details - General admission tickets are priced at $175, with VIP tickets available for $350, and virtual tickets for $30 [6] - The festival will include various activities such as food and drink from local partners, custom DIY apparel, and unique experiences like hot air balloon rides [5] - The Challenge will take place from 5 PM to 11 PM at Abercrombie & Fitch Co.'s Global Home Office in New Albany, Ohio [7]

Core Insights - Abercrombie & Fitch Inc. (ANF) reported record net sales of $1.1 billion for Q1 fiscal 2025, an 8% increase year over year, but experienced a significant decline in gross margin by 440 basis points due to high freight costs and markdowns on winter inventory [1][9] - The company faces a $50 million margin headwind for fiscal 2025 due to a 10% tariff on all global U.S. imports and a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, impacting profitability despite efforts to adjust sourcing and negotiate with vendors [2] - The Hollister brand outperformed expectations with a 22% net sales growth, which helped mitigate a 4% decline in Abercrombie brand sales, attributed to promotional pressures and tough comparisons from the previous year [3][9] Financial Performance - ANF's operating margin decreased to 9.3% from 12.7% a year ago, reflecting the strain on gross margins [1] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for ANF is 7.32X, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.32X, indicating potential undervaluation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected decline of 4.9% in ANF's earnings for 2025, with a slight recovery expected in 2026 with a growth estimate of 3.9% [11] Future Outlook - Management anticipates sequential improvement in gross margin as freight costs ease and carryover inventory is reduced, although challenges remain due to tariffs [4] - The company's strong brand equity, flexible supply chain, and disciplined inventory management are seen as key factors that could help navigate current market pressures [4] Industry Context - Peers such as American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Gap Inc. (GAP) are also facing similar cost pressures and are implementing agile supply chain strategies to protect margins [5][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Brokerage recommendations, particularly for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), show a positive bias, but their reliability in guiding investment decisions is questionable [5][10][11]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Abercrombie has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.90, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 50% Strong Buy and 10% Buy recommendations from 10 brokerage firms [2][5]. - Despite the positive ABR, studies suggest limited success of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price increases [5][10]. Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which are more reliable indicators of near-term stock performance [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank for Abercrombie is 4 (Sell), reflecting a 7.1% decline in the consensus earnings estimate to $10.18, indicating growing pessimism among analysts [14][15]. Analyst Behavior Insights - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit overly optimistic recommendations due to vested interests, often misleading investors [10][11]. - The ABR is not always up-to-date, while the Zacks Rank reflects timely earnings estimate revisions, making it a more effective tool for predicting stock price movements [13].

Core Insights - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) experienced an 11% drop in shares after releasing its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, underperforming compared to the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry and the broader S&P 500 [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35, and achieved record sales of $1.1 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [3][5] - Despite strong revenue growth, EPS declined by 25.7% compared to $2.14 in the same quarter last year, and gross margin contracted by 440 basis points to 62% due to inflationary pressures and higher selling expenses [5][10] Brand Performance - The Hollister brand showed robust growth with a 22% increase in sales and 23% comparable sales gains, while the Abercrombie brand faced a 4% decline in sales and a 10% drop in comparable sales [6][9] - The Abercrombie brand's underperformance is concerning as it constitutes nearly 50% of the company's total sales, posing a strategic risk [9][12] Guidance and Market Sentiment - Management raised sales growth expectations for fiscal 2025 to 3-6% but lowered EPS guidance to $9.50-$10.50 from $10.40-$11.40, indicating potential profitability challenges in the second half of the fiscal year [10][19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen downward revisions, with a 6.2% decline to $10.28 for fiscal 2025 over the past 30 days [17][19] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on long-term growth through brand evolution, international expansion, and enhancing omni-channel capabilities, including plans to open 60 new stores and remodel 40 in fiscal 2025 [11][12] - Abercrombie's brand portfolio revitalization, particularly the success of Hollister, is a key strength, with eight consecutive quarters of growth [12][18] Valuation - ANF is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 7.57X, significantly below the industry average of 17.85X and the S&P 500's average of 22.02X, indicating a potential buying opportunity despite investor concerns [13][16]

Financial Performance - Net sales for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, were $1,097,311, representing a 7.5% increase compared to $1,020,730 for the same period in 2024[97]. - Comparable sales increased by 4% for the first quarter of Fiscal 2025, compared to a 21% increase in the first quarter of Fiscal 2024[97]. - Operating income decreased to $101,533, down from $129,849 in the prior year, with an operating income margin of 9.3% compared to 12.7%[97]. - Net income attributable to Abercrombie & Fitch was $80,413, a decrease from $113,850, resulting in a net income per share of $1.59 compared to $2.14[97]. - EBITDA for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $140.1 million, representing 12.8% of net sales, compared to $167.5 million or 16.4% of net sales for the same period in 2024, a decrease of 16.3%[111]. - The company reported net income of $81,739 for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, which is 7.4% of net sales, down from $115,078 or 11.3% in 2024[138]. Expenses and Costs - Cost of sales as a percentage of net sales increased by approximately 440 basis points to 38.0% due to higher freight costs[101]. - Selling expenses increased by $40 million, representing 36.4% of net sales, up from 35.3% in the prior year[103]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by $15 million, accounting for 15.9% of net sales, down from 18.6%[104]. - The effective tax rate increased to 24.5% from 14.7% due to jurisdictional mix and lower pre-tax income levels[108]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and equivalents decreased to $510,563 from $772,727 as of February 1, 2025[97]. - The company had cash and cash equivalents of $510.6 million as of May 3, 2025, down from $772.7 million at the beginning of Fiscal 2025, reflecting a decrease of 34%[116]. - Total liquidity as of May 3, 2025, was approximately $0.9 billion, compared to $1.2 billion at the beginning of Fiscal 2025, indicating a reduction of 25%[116]. - Net cash used for operating activities was $(4.0) million for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, compared to $95.0 million provided by operating activities in the same period last year[124]. Strategic Initiatives - The Company plans to open approximately 60 new stores and close about 20 stores, resulting in approximately 40 net store openings during Fiscal 2025[92]. - The Company has delivered new store experiences and remodeled nine stores while closing three stores through the end of the first fiscal quarter[92]. - The Company aims to maintain a durable balance sheet and consistent free cash flow profile while balancing macroeconomic impacts and efficiency efforts[94]. - The Company continues to progress on its multi-year enterprise resource planning (ERP) transformation and cloud migration journey[85]. - The Company has introduced the Always Forward Plan, which focuses on executing growth plans and accelerating a digital revolution[82]. - The company expects to prioritize investments in business operations, including inventory acquisition and technology, over the next twelve months[114]. Macroeconomic Factors - The Company anticipates that current macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, will continue to impact consumer spending and operating results[87]. - The Company is utilizing an agile inventory model and pricing strategies to support customer demand throughout the year[94]. - The Company is building a playbook of mitigation strategies to address uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade policies[87]. Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased approximately 2.6 million shares of its Common Stock for about $200 million during the year-to-date period ended May 3, 2025, with $1.1 billion remaining under the $1.3 billion share repurchase program approved in March 2025[118]. Foreign Currency Exposure - The company has exposure to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, which could impact reported revenues and expenses as international operations increase[143]. - A hypothetical 10% devaluation of the U.S. dollar could decrease the fair values of foreign currency exchange forward contracts by approximately $21.0 million[145]. - The company utilizes foreign currency exchange forward contracts to mitigate risks associated with foreign currency transactions and forecasted transactions[144].