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Antero Resources(AR) - 2022 Q4 - Annual Report
2023-02-14 16:00
Table of Contents Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, par value $0.01 AR New York Stock Exchange UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022 or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission File No. 001-36120 ANTERO RESOURCES COR ...
Antero Resources(AR) - 2022 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2022-11-07 17:15
Financial Performance & Capital Allocation - Antero increased share buybacks throughout the year, with cumulative buybacks reaching $730 million as of September 30, 2022[5] - The company anticipates 2023E Free Cash Flow to be similar to 2022E levels[50] - Antero estimates a Free Cash Flow yield of approximately 20% for both 2022E and 2023E[53] Operational Highlights & Market Positioning - Antero possesses the largest inventory of sub-$2.00/Mcf breakeven locations in the Marcellus region[9] - The company has organically added over 60 premium core locations year-to-date at an average cost of less than $1 million per location, representing a discount of over 50% compared to peer acquisitions[34] - Antero has peer-leading exposure to premium markets, with improved basis differentials at key indices accessible by its firm transport portfolio[37] Production & Pricing Guidance - Antero's 2022 net production guidance is set at 32 to 33 Bcfe/d, including 22 to 225 Bcf/d of natural gas and 175000 to 185000 Bbl/d of net liquids production[65] - The company anticipates a natural gas realized price premium of $030 to $040 per Mcf relative to NYMEX[65] Environmental Performance - Antero is ahead of schedule in achieving its climate targets by 2025[54] - Antero Resources is ranked 1 for lowest GHG intensity among its peers[60]
Antero Resources(AR) - 2022 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2022-10-27 17:54
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero Resources generated approximately $800 million in free cash flow during Q3 2022, which was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million and repurchase $380 million of stock [23] - Year-to-date debt reduction totaled nearly $1 billion, with a total reduction of $2.6 billion since the debt reduction program began in Q4 2019, bringing total debt down to less than $1.2 billion [8][24] - The company announced a $1 billion increase in its share repurchase program, raising the total to $2 billion, reflecting confidence in business predictability [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero's firm transportation portfolio allowed the company to achieve a $0.49 per Mcf premium to NYMEX Henry Hub in Q3 2022, despite industry-wide basis differentials [12] - The company spent $46 million on land acquisitions in Q3, adding 25 additional drilling locations at less than $1 million per location, contributing to a total of approximately 60 new drilling locations added year-to-date [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. NGL production is expected to grow by 8% year-over-year from 2022 to 2023, while production in the rest of the world is anticipated to decline by 2% [18] - Propane inventories are now in line with five-year average levels, but days of supply remain 13% below the five-year average [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Antero Resources focuses on maintaining a strong balance sheet while returning significant cash to shareholders, with a commitment to a maintenance capital level rather than accelerating production [9][31] - The company emphasizes organic land acquisitions over larger transactions to avoid diluting equity and maintain a strong inventory position [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects regional basis differentials to remain wide in 2023 due to pipeline capacity constraints, but Antero's firm transportation capacity will help mitigate price volatility [13][15] - The company anticipates no cash taxes in 2023, with the first cash taxes expected in 2024, allowing for continued capital returns to shareholders [24] Other Important Information - Antero has reduced its methane leak loss rate by 65% and is on track to achieve net zero on Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by 2025 [24][25] - The company is ranked 1 for the lowest GHG intensity among its peers, highlighting its commitment to ESG initiatives [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for higher differentials in 2023 - Management expects higher differentials for the industry but anticipates similar performance to 2022 for Antero [26][27] Question: Thoughts on accelerating production in 2023 - Management is committed to maintenance capital levels and does not plan to accelerate production despite having impressive inventory [31] Question: Free cash flow outlook and CapEx - Management expects around 10% inflation for CapEx in 2023 and plans to maintain a similar level of free cash flow usage for debt repayment and share buybacks [34][36] Question: Production expectations for 2023 - Production is expected to be similar to 2022 levels, with a slight increase due to accelerated activity in Q4 2022 [52] Question: Liquidity limitations on buybacks - There are no liquidity constraints on share buybacks, and the majority of free cash flow will be directed towards this [54] Question: Incremental ethane barrels expected in Q4 - Management expects ethane production to increase from 55,000 barrels in Q3 to approximately 75,000 barrels in Q4 [56]
Antero Resources(AR) - 2022 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2022-04-29 21:28
Financial Performance & Strategy - Antero Resources (AR) did not add any hedges during the quarter, positioning the company for greater exposure to rising commodity prices[7] - AR targets approximately $10 billion in free cash flow through 2026, which is about 100% of its current market value[22] - The company projects a 2022 free cash flow yield of approximately 25% based on market value, which is expected to be the highest among Appalachian peers[23] - AR's net debt has been reduced by $22 billion[19] Production & Guidance - AR's 2022 net production guidance is between 32 and 33 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d)[30] - Net natural gas production is projected to be between 22 and 225 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)[30] - Net liquids production is expected to range from 175000 to 185000 barrels per day (Bbl/d)[30] - The company anticipates drilling 70 to 80 wells and completing 60 to 65 wells in 2022[30] Market Dynamics - The presentation suggests structurally higher natural gas prices ahead, noting that when storage is neutral with the 5-year average, historical natural gas prices have been between $250 and $325 per MMBtu, while in 2022, prices are expected to be greater than $400 per MMBtu[5] - Antero highlights a shift from a "Shale Growth Era" (2015-2019) to a "Maintenance Era" (2020 to-date) characterized by limited capital access, infrastructure constraints, and a focus on ESG initiatives[6]
Antero Resources(AR) - 2022 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2022-04-28 18:45
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero Resources expects to generate over $2.5 billion of free cash flow in 2022, with a similar level anticipated for 2023, bringing the five-year cumulative free cash flow target to approximately $10 billion, aligning with the current market cap [21][22][24] - The company has significantly reduced its absolute debt and leverage, with a leverage ratio expected to go below 0.5 this year [24][22] - Antero's share repurchase program authorized up to $1 billion, with approximately $100 million repurchased at an average price of $27.11 during Q1 [22][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero has not added any natural gas hedges since 2020, remaining less than 50% hedged on expected 2022 natural gas production and virtually unhedged on all commodities in 2023 [12][21] - The company is currently selling nearly 1 Bcf a day of natural gas to LNG facilities, with 2.3 Bcf a day of firm transportation to LNG fairways, representing about 75% of Antero's total natural gas production [8][17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas prices have reached their highest levels since 2008, with monthly NYMEX prices touching 13-year highs, supported by global supply concerns and geopolitical tensions [14][17] - U.S. natural gas supplies averaged around 93.5 Bcf per day, resulting in a storage level of approximately 1.45 Tcf at the end of the withdrawal season [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Antero is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and generating free cash flow, transitioning from growth to a return of capital to shareholders [9][21] - The company aims to capture the upside from growing LNG and LPG export demand through its industry-leading firm transportation portfolio [13][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains bullish on commodity prices due to limited capital access, supply chain constraints, and low global storage levels, which are expected to support higher prices moving forward [11][12] - The company does not plan to hedge any commodities in the foreseeable future, opting instead to remain unhedged to benefit from rising prices [35][55] Other Important Information - Antero has a significant ownership stake of approximately 29% in AM, which is considered a valuable asset in the LNG story [68] - The company has $2.3 billion of net operating losses (NOLs) that will delay cash tax payments until late 2023 [66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential cash returns to shareholders this year - Management indicated that with current commodity prices, they could efficiently repay approximately $800 million to $900 million of debt this year, allowing for significant share repurchases [28] Question: NGL and gas pricing dynamics - A one-time adjustment affected realized prices, but management expects future pricing to align closely with benchmarks [30][32] Question: Future hedging strategies - Management confirmed no plans to hedge, maintaining a bullish outlook on commodity prices [35] Question: LNG premium and market dynamics - Management noted that while there are no specific hubs to watch, they are pleased with their current delivery points and are studying potential opportunities [40] Question: Cash flow and dividend considerations - Management emphasized the focus on share buybacks due to the undervaluation of the stock, with dividends not currently prioritized [62] Question: Incremental LNG projects and transportation - Management stated that there are no significant pipeline expansions planned from Appalachia, but they are well-positioned with existing transportation capacity [64][65]