BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI ) could be considered a rookie in the artificial intelligence and analytics market, but the company itself has been around since 2008 and made headlines after it was acquired by NuWave SolutionsRick is a Wall Street Journal best-selling author with over 20 years of experience trading stocks and options. The most authoritative publications, including Good Morning America, Washington Post, Yahoo Finance, MSN, Business Insider, NBC, FOX, CBS, and ABC News, cover his work. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the emerging niche of artificial intelligence analytics, highlighting BigBear.ai (BBAI) and Veritone (VERI) as notable small-cap players in this sector [1][2]. Company Overview - BigBear.ai focuses on "decision intelligence" for government and defense clients, specializing in mission-critical AI applications for national security and defense [2]. - Veritone provides an enterprise AI platform (aiWARE) targeting media, public sector, and commercial markets, with a suite of audio/video data analytics tools [2]. Market Position and Strategy - BigBear.ai has a backlog of $385 million as of March 31, 2025, with significant government contracts, including a $165 million contract from the U.S. Army [4][8]. - Veritone has shifted its focus solely to AI software, achieving an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $58.7 million, with 81% from subscriptions [9][10]. Financial Performance - BigBear.ai eliminated $57.7 million of long-term debt and raised $64.7 million in gross proceeds, strengthening its balance sheet [6][8]. - Veritone's revenue declined by 7% year-over-year to $22.5 million, but it has a higher gross margin of 61.1%, significantly above BigBear.ai's 21.3% [9][10]. Growth Prospects - BigBear.ai is positioned for growth in defense AI, leveraging its backlog and government contracts [4][8]. - Veritone's growth strategy includes vertical-specific AI solutions and expanding into government applications, indicating a competitive edge in software sales [10][12]. Stock Performance - BigBear.ai's stock has increased by nearly 382% over the past year, while Veritone's shares have recently rebounded, rising 111.1% in the past month [14][15]. - Over the past three months, BigBear.ai shares rose by 153.3%, outperforming the broader market, while Veritone gained 25.9% [15]. Valuation Comparison - BigBear.ai trades at a forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 12.02, significantly higher than Veritone's 1.13, indicating a premium valuation for BigBear.ai [18][19]. - Veritone's expected revenue growth of 18% in 2025 and narrowing losses suggest a more attractive valuation and clearer path to profitability [19][26].

These two companies may disappoint investors over the next few years. It seems like anything related to artificial intelligence (AI) has turned to gold in the last year. There are now trillions of AI-related dollars in value driving the stock market higher as prices soar for anything deemed an AI winner. Most of the largest companies in the world are now related to or investing heavily in AI, meaning that future stock returns hinge on this fast-growing sector. So far, it is keeping up its end of the bargain ...

Core Insights - BigBear.ai (BBAI) is accelerating its global expansion strategy, focusing on converting international pilots into sustainable revenue streams [1][4] - The company reported a revenue of $34.8 million, a 5% year-over-year increase, but it fell short of expectations [2] - A backlog of $385 million, up 30% from the previous year, indicates strong customer trust [2] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for BigBear.ai was negative $7 million, reflecting operational challenges [3] - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash, improving financial flexibility through note conversions [2] Market Position and Competition - BigBear.ai faces competition from established players like Palantir Technologies and C3.ai, which have larger revenue bases and higher market visibility [5][6] - To differentiate itself, BigBear.ai must leverage its niche focus on mission-specific deployments and strengthen international alliances [7] Stock Performance - BBAI shares have surged 174.1% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry and the S&P 500 index [8][10] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.08, indicating a discount compared to industry peers [15] Earnings Estimates - BBAI's bottom-line estimates for 2025 remain unchanged at a loss of 41 cents, showing improvement from a loss of $1.10 per share a year ago [12]

Core Viewpoint - BigBear.ai and Innodata represent two distinct investment opportunities in the growing artificial intelligence market, with BigBear.ai focusing on AI modules for edge networks and Innodata specializing in data preparation for AI applications [1][2]. Company Overview - BigBear.ai's stock increased over 390% in the past year, driven by business stabilization and biometric security service rollout [2]. - Innodata's stock rose approximately 140% due to heightened demand for its AI-oriented services [2]. - BigBear.ai's main AI modules include Observe, Orient, and Dominate, which process data and predict outcomes [4]. - Innodata has transitioned from a small analytics provider to a significant player in AI data preparation since launching task-specific microservices in 2018 [6][7]. Financial Performance - BigBear.ai's revenue grew from $146 million in 2021 to $158 million in 2024, falling short of its initial projections [5]. - Innodata's revenue surged at a CAGR of 20% from 2018 to 2024, driven by demand from major tech companies [7]. - Projected revenue growth for BigBear.ai is expected to be 6.1% in 2025 and 12.1% in 2026, while Innodata's growth is projected at 41.5% in 2025, but will decelerate to 5.1% by 2027 [11]. Profitability and Valuation - BigBear.ai is not yet profitable but is expected to narrow its net losses through 2026 [12]. - Innodata became profitable in 2024, with expected net income growth at a CAGR of 16% through 2027 [12]. - BigBear.ai has a market cap of $2.1 billion, trading at 12 times this year's sales, while Innodata, valued at $1.6 billion, trades at less than 7 times this year's sales [13]. Investment Outlook - BigBear.ai's growth is anticipated to be driven by government contracts, including projects for the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. military [9]. - Innodata's growth is expected to be fueled by the expanding generative AI market, leading to increased spending from large tech customers [10]. - Despite BigBear.ai's potential in the government sector, Innodata is viewed as a better investment due to stronger growth, profitability, and lower valuation [15].

What's next for BigBear.ai? BigBear.ai stock continues to surge despite no major news Even in the absence of apparent meaningful developments for the business, BigBear.ai stock has continued to rally. The company's big valuation gains appear to be primarily connected to the defense-AI investment trend that has been hot in the market. Palantir has been a top defense-AI play and reached a new valuation high in this week's trading, and BigBear.ai stock has often seen valuation moves that correspond with pricin ...

Company Overview - BigBear.ai was formed through the roll-up of several AI and big data analytics companies by AEI Industrial Partners, and it went public via a SPAC merger in 2021, with some components dating back to 1988 [2] - The company offers biometrics software, including facial recognition and contactless identity screening, deployed at major U.S. airports, along with big data analytics solutions targeting various industries [3] Business Performance - First-quarter revenue increased by 5% year over year to $34.8 million, but operating losses narrowed from $98.1 million to $21.2 million due to a one-time $85 million goodwill impairment charge [4] - Adjusted EBITDA indicates that losses have increased more than fourfold, from $1.6 million to $7 million [5] - Management expresses optimism about strategic focus areas such as border security, trade, and shipbuilding, although it raises questions about the sustainability of these efforts [6] Market Comparison - BigBear.ai and Palantir Technologies both operate in big data analytics and AI-enabled SaaS, but their growth rates differ significantly, with BigBear.ai's sales growing by only 5% compared to Palantir's 39% [8][9] - BigBear.ai has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12, while Palantir's is 122, indicating a significant valuation difference despite Palantir's higher growth rate [9] Investment Outlook - The stock price of BigBear.ai has increased by 78% year to date, driven by market hype around AI and big data analytics, but fundamental weaknesses may hinder long-term investment potential [10]

Core Insights - Palantir Technologies has become a leading player in the AI and defense tech sector, with its stock rising by 80% in the first half of 2025 and 427% over the past year, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 [1] - BigBear.ai, a competitor in the defense tech space, has also seen significant stock growth, with shares increasing by 357% over the last year, raising questions about its potential to rival Palantir [2] Company Performance - BigBear.ai's stock has experienced high volatility, initially rising after the announcement of Project Stargate, which aims to invest $500 billion in AI projects by 2029 [3] - Despite early gains, BigBear.ai's stock retreated following the Pentagon's plans to cut its budget by 8% annually, which initially impacted defense contractors negatively [5] - The DOD's budget cuts are focused on non-essential areas, allowing for capital reallocation towards tech initiatives, which may benefit companies like BigBear.ai [6][7] Financial Comparison - BigBear.ai reported $160 million in sales with gross margins below 30%, leading to continued losses [10] - In contrast, Palantir generated $487 million in government revenue in Q1 2025, nearly three times BigBear.ai's annual revenue, with gross margins around 80% and a net income exceeding $570 million over the last year [12] - BigBear.ai's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is around 11, which appears cheap compared to Palantir's P/S ratio of 120, but the disparity is attributed to Palantir's strong profit margins and growth in both public and private sectors [13] Market Position - BigBear.ai's CEO has strategic ties to the government, which may enhance its visibility and opportunities in the defense sector [8] - However, the company is not expected to become a significant competitor to Palantir, which is viewed as a leader in the defense tech space [14]

Company Performance - BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) closed at $7.95, reflecting a decrease of -3.28% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which saw a loss of 0.01% [1] - Over the past month, shares of BigBear.ai have increased by 107.58%, significantly outperforming the Computer and Technology sector which gained 7.44% and the S&P 500 which gained 5.37% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings report for BigBear.ai is scheduled for August 11, 2025, with projected earnings of -$0.07 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 75% [2] - Revenue is expected to be $40.99 million, representing a growth of 3.04% compared to the same quarter last year [2] Annual Forecast - For the entire year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of -$0.41 per share and revenue of $166.85 million, reflecting changes of +62.73% and +5.45% respectively compared to the previous year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates are crucial as they often indicate the latest business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Industry Context - The Computers - IT Services industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 82, placing it in the top 34% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of individual industry groups, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Core Insights - BigBear.ai's stock closed at $8.22 on July 17, reflecting a significant 15.5% increase, with intraday trading showing volatility between $7.25 and $8.38 [1] - The company's performance outpaced key indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.54% and 0.74% respectively, indicating that the stock's rise was driven by company-specific factors rather than broader market trends [2] - BigBear.ai's trading volume reached approximately 205 million shares, surpassing its 50-day average of 143 million shares and 200-day average of 96 million shares, suggesting increased investor interest due to recent advancements in defense technology [3] Company Performance - The notable 15% climb in BigBear.ai's stock highlights investor enthusiasm towards its recent strategic partnerships in the United Arab Emirates [2] - Compared to competitors like Palantir Technologies and C3.ai, which saw gains of 2% and 4.2% respectively, BigBear.ai's performance indicates a stronger market response to its initiatives [2] Market Activity - The heightened trading activity reflects growing market confidence in BigBear.ai's role within the evolving defense AI landscape, signaling potential for sustained growth [3]