Institutional Selling Trends - Institutional buyers are highly aware of market conditions, employing numerous analysts and portfolio managers to monitor global markets continuously [1] - A shift in institutional flows can significantly impact retail portfolios, indicating when to increase or decrease market exposure [2] - Recent volatility in the S&P 500 has led institutions to sell off cyclical and consumer discretionary stocks, suggesting worse economic conditions than anticipated [2][4] Impact on Consumer Discretionary Sector - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) and individual stocks like Progressive Co. and Booking Holdings have been affected by institutional selling [3][4] - In February 2025, retail sales data indicated a significant pullback in consumer spending, prompting institutions to act before potential losses [5][6] - Up to $3.5 billion was withdrawn from the consumer discretionary ETF, with Northern Trust being a major seller [6] Forecasts and Earnings Projections - The 12-month stock price forecast for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund is $198.33, based on 1,031 analyst ratings [4] - Progressive's stock forecast indicates a slight downside of -0.77%, with a projected EPS decline from $4.08 to $2.74 for Q3 2025 due to reduced consumer spending on cars and homes [8][12] - Booking Holdings is projected to experience a nearly 50% decline in EPS for Q1 2025, with significant institutional selling amounting to $210 billion [13][14] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The short interest in Booking stock has increased by 6.5%, reflecting bearish sentiment regarding future earnings [13] - Despite a Moderate Buy rating for Booking, top analysts suggest alternative stocks may offer better investment opportunities [15]

Group 1: Campaign Overview - The 2024 survey by Priceline reveals that over half of Millennial and Gen Z consumers dream about vacation plans weekly, but face barriers like price and complexity [1] - Priceline's new ad campaign, featuring Kaley Cuoco, aims to encourage travelers to transition from dreaming to booking their trips [2][3] - The campaign emphasizes that travel dreams are more accessible than ever, breaking down barriers such as cost and hesitation [4] Group 2: Promotions and Offers - The campaign includes 'Buzzer Beater' deals, offering significant savings for fans during the college basketball season, available from March 25 to April 6 [5] - Priceline will upgrade customers with .edu email addresses to VIP Gold status for the remainder of 2025, unlocking exclusive travel discounts [6] - Specific discounts include 10% to 15% off select hotels in various tournament host cities, with savings of up to $250 for championship hotels [8] Group 3: Interactive Engagement - Priceline and DraftKings are collaborating on the "Dream It, Book It Bracket," a free-to-play bracket challenge during the Men's College Basketball Tournament, with a chance to win a $50,000 cash prize [7] - The campaign will feature game-day itineraries for basketball fans, providing local recommendations to enhance their travel experience [10] Group 4: Marketing Strategy - The campaign will be promoted across various platforms, including broadcast, digital, and social media, with influencer campaigns and audio ads [12] - Priceline's extensive experience in online travel, leveraging proprietary deals technology, allows it to offer deep discounts and a wide range of travel options [13]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings Inc. is participating in the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, highlighting its engagement with investors and analysts [1][3] - Ewout Steenbergen, the CFO of Booking Holdings, is reflecting on his first year in the role, indicating a focus on operational expenditures and investment adjustments as the company looks towards 2025 [5][9] Company Focus - The company has been prioritizing a review of its operational expenditure base and areas of investment, suggesting a strategic approach to resource allocation [9] - There is an emphasis on core trends and potential disruptions within the industry, indicating that the company is actively monitoring macro and microeconomic factors that could impact its performance [3][9]

Group 1: Booking Holdings - Booking Holdings (BKNG) reported strong fourth-quarter results driven by robust travel demand and is investing in generative AI technology to enhance value for travelers and partners [3][4] - Analyst Mark Mahaney from Evercore reiterated a buy rating on BKNG, raising the price target to $5,500 from $5,300, citing strong performance across all geographic markets and travel verticals [4][6] - BKNG's growth metrics, including bookings, revenue, and room nights, outpaced competitors like Airbnb and Expedia, with Mahaney highlighting BKNG as the highest quality online travel stock due to its scale and management [5][6] Group 2: Visa - Visa (V) discussed its growth strategy and revenue opportunities in Value Added Services (VAS) during its investor day on February 20, reaffirming a buy rating with a price target of $370 [9][10] - The company estimates a $41 trillion volume opportunity in Consumer Payments, with $23 trillion currently underserved, and projects long-term revenue growth of 9% to 12% in VAS [11][12] - Analyst Rufus Hone views Visa as a core holding in the U.S. financial space, expecting the company to sustain double-digit top-line growth [13] Group 3: CyberArk Software - CyberArk Software (CYBR) announced solid Q4 2024 results and discussed its growth prospects during its investor day, leading to a buy rating and an increased price target of $465 from $455 [14][15] - The total addressable market (TAM) for CyberArk has increased to $80 billion, driven by demand for machine-identity solutions and AI-driven security [15][16] - Management targets annual recurring revenue of $2.3 billion and a free cash flow margin of 27% by 2028, supported by platform consolidation trends [18]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings reported strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with gross bookings of $166 billion, an increase of 10% year-over-year, and revenue of $24 billion, growing 11% year-over-year, alongside adjusted EBITDA of over $8 billion, which increased 17% year-over-year [2] - The company is optimistic about continued growth in 2025, projecting at least 8% revenue growth and 15% earnings growth on a constant-currency basis [2] Financial Performance - Booking achieved a 170 basis points increase in adjusted EBITDA margins to 35%, exceeding management's expectations [2] - The company is focused on maintaining profitability while investing in strategic initiatives, with a transformation program expected to deliver $400 million to $450 million in annual run-rate cost savings [8] AI Strategy - Booking is adopting a dual-pronged strategy for AI, developing proprietary capabilities and forming partnerships with major AI companies to enhance customer experience [3][4] - The company is leveraging AI to improve operational efficiency, particularly in customer service, while maintaining stable expenses [4] Merchant Platform Expansion - The transition from an agency model to a merchant platform is creating new revenue streams, with merchant gross bookings reaching 59% of total gross bookings, an increase of about 9 percentage points year-over-year [5] - This shift allows Booking to bundle travel components more effectively and offer flexible payment options, enhancing the overall customer experience [5] Alternative Accommodations Growth - Alternative accommodations are experiencing accelerated growth, with listings reaching 7.9 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, and bookings increasing by 19% in Q4 [6][7] - The ability to offer both traditional and alternative accommodations side-by-side is resonating with consumers, contributing to growth across all global regions [7] Strategic Transformation - The company is implementing a comprehensive efficiency program while continuing to invest in strategic growth initiatives, with an estimated $150 million in cost savings embedded in the 2025 guidance [8] - Management plans to reinvest approximately $170 million into strategic priorities, including AI capabilities and expanded fintech offerings, reflecting a balanced approach to profitability and long-term growth [8] Future Outlook - Leadership at Booking Holdings expresses confidence in the company's strategic direction, emphasizing adaptability and the enduring appeal of travel experiences [9] - The focus remains on advancing the connected trip vision, expanding merchant and fintech capabilities, and leveraging AI for customer experience improvements [10]

Group 1 - Booking Holdings' CFO Ewout Steenbergen will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 5, 2025 [1] - The event will begin at 3:20 pm PT / 6:20 pm ET and will be available for public listening via a live audio cast [1] - A replay of the presentation will be accessible approximately 24 hours after the event [1] Group 2 - Booking Holdings is the world's leading provider of online travel and related services, operating in over 220 countries and territories [2] - The company offers services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable [2] - The mission of Booking Holdings is to facilitate global travel experiences for everyone [2]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline on Friday, with the Dow Jones index dropping over 700 points during the session [1] - The S&P 500 fell by 1.71% to 6,013.13, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.20% to 19,524.01 [1] Analyst Insights - Wall Street analysts frequently update stock picks, but their track records in predicting market movements can be inconsistent [2] - Analyst ratings and price targets can vary significantly, leading to confusion among investors regarding which opinions to trust [2] Benzinga Analyst Ratings - Benzinga's Analyst Ratings API compiles high-quality stock ratings through partnerships with major sell-side banks, providing daily updates three hours before the U.S. equity market opens [3] - Insights from Benzinga Pro subscribers have been shown to serve as effective trading indicators, helping to outperform the stock market [3] Top Analyst Picks - Benzinga provides access to the latest analyst ratings, allowing traders to sort by analyst accuracy [4] - The following analysts have maintained high accuracy rates of 86%: - Lloyd Walmsley: Maintained a Buy rating on Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) with a price target increase from $5,560 to $5,960, indicating a potential upside of around 20% [5] - Mark Kelley: Maintained a Hold rating on Wayfair Inc. (W) with a price target reduction from $47 to $46, suggesting a potential surge of about 9% [5] - Doug Anmuth: Maintained an Underweight rating on Tripadvisor, Inc. (TRIP) with a price target increase from $14 to $15, indicating a potential downside of around 1% [5] - Alexander Paris: Maintained an Outperform rating on Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) with a price target of $20, suggesting a potential surge of about 22% [5] - William Stein: Maintained a Hold rating on Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) with a price target increase from $230 to $248, indicating a potential upside of around 4% [6]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings (BKNG) reported fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $41.55 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.58% and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29.8% [1] - The company's revenues reached $5.47 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.50% and showing a year-over-year growth of 14.4% [2] - BKNG's investments in AI-driven tools contributed to enhanced user experience and operational efficiency, leading to a 33.2% appreciation in stock price over the past six months [3] Financial Performance - Merchant revenues were $3.33 billion, accounting for 61% of total revenues, and increased by 35.1% year over year [4] - Agency revenues were $1.86 billion, representing 34.1% of total revenues, but decreased by 9.9% year over year [4] - Advertising & Other revenues totaled $271 million, making up 5% of total revenues, with a year-over-year increase of 9.7% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $1.8 billion, up 26.2% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.8%, expanding by 320 basis points [7] Booking Metrics - Total gross bookings amounted to $37.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.3% [6] - Merchant bookings were $24.2 billion, up 31.7% year over year, while agency bookings totaled $12.9 billion, down 2.7% year over year [6] - Booked room nights reached 261 million, representing a 13% increase year over year [5] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents stood at $16.16 billion, an increase from $15.78 billion as of September 30, 2024 [8] - Total debt rose to $16.59 billion from $16.21 billion in the previous quarter [8] - Free cash flow was reported at $0.6 billion, down from $2.3 billion in the previous quarter [8] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of 2025, Room Night Growth is anticipated to be between 5% and 7% [9] - Gross Bookings growth is expected to be in the range of 5% to 7% [9] - Revenue growth for the first quarter is projected to be between 2% and 4%, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $800 million and $850 million [9]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in its stock price during premarket trading [2][7] - The company achieved $5.47 billion in revenue for Q4 2024, surpassing the $5.19 billion forecast by analysts [2] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $41.55, significantly higher than the $36.70 consensus [3] Financial Performance - Gross bookings reached $37.2 billion, exceeding the $34.5 billion estimate from analysts [3] - All key metrics, including bookings, revenue, and adjusted EPS, showed year-over-year growth [3] Corporate Actions - Booking announced a new $20 billion stock buyback program, in addition to the remaining $7.7 billion from the previous program [4] - The quarterly dividend was increased by 10% to $9.60 per share, up from $8.75 a year ago [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth of 2% to 4% year-over-year in Q1, with gross bookings expected to rise by 5% to 7% [5] - For the full year, mid-single digit percentage increases are expected for both revenue and gross bookings, while adjusted EPS is projected to grow in the low double-digit percentage range [5] Analyst Reactions - Analysts from Jefferies and JPMorgan raised their price targets for Booking stock to $5,400 and $5,750, respectively, following the earnings report [6] - Travel demand was noted to remain strong, and the company plans to increase its social media advertising spend, particularly on Meta Platforms [6] - Booking shares rose approximately 3% on the day of the report and have increased roughly 35% over the past year [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter room nights grew 13% year-over-year, exceeding prior expectations [7][36] - Fourth quarter gross bookings increased by 17% and revenue grew by 14%, both above the high end of prior guidance [7][44] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $1.8 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share grew 30% [8][48] - For the full year, gross bookings reached $166 billion, up 10%, and revenue was $24 billion, up 11% [10][51] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was over $8 billion, increasing 17% year-over-year [53] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alternative accommodations room night growth accelerated to 19% in the fourth quarter, outpacing overall business growth [29][38] - The mix of merchant gross bookings reached 59% of total gross bookings at Booking.com, an increase of about 9 percentage points year-over-year [23] - Airline ticket bookings grew 52% in the fourth quarter, with almost 14 million tickets booked across platforms [42][88] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Room night growth by region in the fourth quarter: Europe up low double digits, Asia up mid-teens, Rest of World up about 20%, and the US up about 10% [36][37] - The global mix of alternative accommodation room nights at Booking.com was 33%, up 1 percentage point from the previous year [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging generative AI to enhance traveler experiences and operational efficiency [5][14] - The connected trip vision aims to simplify the travel planning and booking experience, with a strong emphasis on integrating various travel elements [19][20] - The Genius loyalty program is being expanded beyond accommodations to other travel verticals, promoting customer loyalty and direct booking behavior [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the travel industry, anticipating healthy demand for leisure travel globally [12][61] - The company expects to achieve its long-term growth ambitions for gross bookings, revenue, and adjusted EPS in 2025 [61][62] - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape but emphasized the company's ability to adapt and innovate [71][75] Other Important Information - The company announced a new $20 billion share repurchase authorization and a 10% increase in quarterly cash dividends [58] - A transformation program is underway to reduce complexity and increase agility, with expected annual cost reductions of approximately $400 million to $450 million [64][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Risks associated with competition from agentic platforms - Management acknowledged the competitive risks but emphasized the company's adaptability and ongoing partnerships with major players in AI [70][76] Question: Growth in alternative accommodations - Management noted that alternative accommodations are growing in all regions and attributed growth to the quality of the platform and product offerings [78][80] Question: Airline growth and future potential - Management expressed optimism about maintaining strong growth in the flight business, focusing on providing better service and value to travelers [86][90] Question: Managing long-term risks with partnerships - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining proprietary data and the potential for partnerships to lower customer acquisition costs [97][101] Question: Interest in larger M&A deals - Management reiterated a consistent stance of not commenting on M&A activities unless a transaction is announced [104][105] Question: Trends in marketing expenses - Management expects continued marketing leverage driven by increased direct traffic and higher performance marketing ROIs [106][110] Question: Impact of AI on revenue and cost avoidance - Management discussed the potential for AI to drive cost savings in customer service and improve operational efficiency [112][115]