Core Insights - Airbnb Inc. has significantly contributed to the mainstream acceptance of alternative accommodations and is expanding into experiences and services [1] - Booking Holdings Inc. continues to maintain its competitive position in the travel and accommodation industry [1] Company Analysis - Airbnb's role in the market has been pivotal, with a focus on diversifying its offerings beyond just accommodation [1] - Booking Holdings is highlighted for its strategic positioning and ongoing developments in the travel sector [1] Industry Trends - The alternative accommodation market is evolving, with companies like Airbnb leading the charge [1] - The competitive landscape is marked by significant players like Booking Holdings, indicating a robust market environment [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA, who has a background in brand and intangible assets valuation, particularly in the technology, telecom, and banking sectors [1]. Group 1: Professional Background - Vladimir Dimitrov has worked with some of the largest global brands in various sectors, showcasing his extensive experience in the industry [1]. - He graduated from the London School of Economics, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance and economics [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The focus is on identifying reasonably priced businesses that possess sustainable long-term competitive advantages, which is a key strategy for investment analysis [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA, who has a background in brand and intangible assets valuation, particularly in the technology, telecom, and banking sectors [1] Group 1: Professional Background - Vladimir Dimitrov has worked with some of the largest global brands in various industries, showcasing his extensive experience [1] - He graduated from the London School of Economics, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance and economics [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The focus is on identifying reasonably priced businesses that possess sustainable long-term competitive advantages, which is a key strategy for investment analysis [1]

Group 1 - Booking Holdings Inc. is identified as a stock to buy by Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, with Citizens reiterating a "Market Outperform" rating and maintaining a price target of $6,500 [1][2] - Analysts highlighted Booking Holdings' competitive strengths, including broad diversification, a strong global brand, and extensive product offerings across hotels, flights, rental cars, and activities [1] - The company is well positioned to capitalize on resilient global travel demand, robust profit margins, and high-value customer retention through its Genius loyalty program [1] Group 2 - Booking Holdings is recognized as the world's leading provider of online travel and related services, operating well-known brands such as Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable [3] - The company generates revenue primarily through commissions on hotel reservations, airline tickets, rental cars, and restaurant bookings made via its platforms [3] - Citizens named Booking Holdings as one of the first partners to launch travel apps within ChatGPT, enhancing interactive and personalized user experiences [2]

Core Insights - The 2026 travel landscape is characterized by increased exploration, spontaneity, and a shift towards impulse travel, with travelers embracing both familiar and new experiences [2][5][8] Travel Trends - Travelers are expected to spend an average of 15 days on leisure travel in 2026, with an increase in travel budgets by approximately $350 [2][5] - "Little Treat Travel" is on the rise, with 65% of travelers booking trips as a form of self-indulgence [6][10] - The Midwest is gaining popularity, with 63% of travelers expressing increased interest in visiting the region [6][10] - Nostalgia is influencing travel choices, as 73% of travelers are drawn to trips that reconnect them with their past [6][10] - Adventure-focused beach vacations are becoming more popular, with 74% of travelers seeking exciting beach experiences [7][10] Emerging Travel Behaviors - "Tailgate Tourism" is emerging, with nearly two-thirds of travelers interested in visiting college towns for game day experiences [10] - "Kidfluence" is shaping family travel, with 87% of parents allowing their children to help plan trips [10] - "Dead Zoning" reflects a trend towards digital detoxing, with 59% of travelers setting stronger boundaries with work during vacations [10]

Core Insights - KAYAK has launched AI Mode, a natural-language search feature that integrates ChatGPT to enhance user experience on its homepage, allowing travelers to plan trips by typing questions in plain language [1][2][3] - The introduction of AI Mode coincides with the peak holiday travel planning period, as KAYAK data indicates that mid-October to early November is optimal for securing holiday travel deals [2][3] KAYAK AI Mode Features - AI Mode enables users to receive contextual travel information without being restricted to preset fields, making the search process more intuitive [2][3] - The feature is currently available in English on desktop and mobile browsers in the US, with plans for additional languages and platforms, including voice entry, to be rolled out soon [4][6] Holiday Travel Insights - KAYAK reports that holiday flight prices are trending lower than the previous year, with a 10% increase in search demand compared to 2024, suggesting travelers should book soon [3][8] - Notable travel insights include November 24 being the cheapest day to fly for Thanksgiving at an average price of $415, and Christmas Eve offering the best deals for both domestic and international trips [3][8] Company Background - KAYAK is a leading travel search engine under Booking Holdings, handling billions of queries to assist users in finding flights, accommodations, rental cars, and vacation packages [5][9] - The KAYAK app supports seamless travel planning for both leisure and business travelers, with a dedicated solution for corporate travel [5][9]

Core Insights - KAYAK has launched AI Mode, a natural-language search feature that integrates ChatGPT to enhance user experience on its homepage, allowing travelers to plan trips by typing questions in plain language [1][2][3] - The introduction of AI Mode coincides with the peak holiday travel planning period, as KAYAK data indicates that mid-October to early November is optimal for securing holiday travel deals [2][3] KAYAK AI Mode Features - AI Mode enables users to receive contextual travel information without being restricted to preset entry fields, making the search process more intuitive [2][3] - The feature is currently available in English on desktop and mobile browsers in the US, with plans for additional languages and platforms, including voice entry, to be rolled out soon [4] Holiday Travel Insights - KAYAK reports that holiday flight prices are trending lower than the previous year, with a 10% increase in search demand compared to 2024, suggesting travelers should book soon [3][8] - Notable travel insights include November 24 being the cheapest day to fly for Thanksgiving at an average price of $415, and Christmas Eve offering the best deals for both domestic and international trips [3][8] User Engagement - KAYAK encourages users to explore holiday-themed prompts in AI Mode to discover actionable trip ideas, enhancing user engagement and travel planning [3][6] - Examples of travel-related queries that can be made using AI Mode include specific hotel searches, car rentals, and unique travel experiences [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][60]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in civil aviation passenger traffic, with major airports seeing a notable rebound in international passenger flow [4][5]. - There is a sustained enthusiasm for domestic travel during holidays, with inbound tourism continuing to thrive [4][15]. - The service sector shows a positive trend, with service consumption and production indices on the rise [30][31]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is recovering, with August 2025 domestic passenger volume reaching approximately 75.36 million, a 3.3% increase from 2024 and a 23.1% increase from 2019 [8]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price in August 2025 was 694.1 yuan, down 1.0% from 2024 and 8.5% from 2019 [8]. - International passenger volume in August 2025 was about 7.47 million, a 15.3% increase from 2024 and a 6.5% increase from 2019 [10]. Domestic Travel Enthusiasm - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 1.23 million from 2024, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 1.08 billion yuan from 2024 [18]. - The average spending per trip during the holiday was 911 yuan, surpassing 2019 levels but slightly lower than 2023 [20]. - The average travel radius for tourists reached 212.66 kilometers, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing willingness to travel further [23]. Service Sector Performance - In August 2025, restaurant revenue grew by 2.1%, and retail sales increased by 3.6%, with the service production index rising by 5.6% [31]. - The service sector PMI remained above the threshold, recording 50.1% in September, indicating ongoing demand recovery [33]. - The total revenue of the service industry from January to July 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.4% [31]. Key Company Tracking - Ctrip's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 17.71 billion yuan, with a potential for valuation improvement compared to international OTA leaders [54]. - The report indicates a strong trend towards long-distance and cross-border travel, with significant growth in bookings for destinations beyond traditional hotspots [53]. - The average occupancy rate for star-rated hotels in Shanghai reached 71.90% in August 2025, recovering to 105.74% of 2019 levels [47].

Core Insights - Booking Holdings Inc. is one of the largest online travel service providers globally, with a market cap of $166.3 billion and a portfolio that includes brands like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, and Kayak, serving travelers in over 220 countries and territories [1] Earnings Expectations - The company is expected to report its third-quarter earnings on October 28, with analysts predicting a profit of $95.56 per share, reflecting a 13.9% increase from $83.89 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the current fiscal year, analysts anticipate an EPS of $220.87, which is an 18.1% increase from $187.10 in fiscal 2024 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Booking Holdings' shares have increased by 21%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 16.3% gains and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's 18.6% returns [4] - The company's strong performance is attributed to a rebound in international travel and robust demand from high-income travelers, supported by ongoing technology investments and a diverse portfolio of leading travel brands [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on BKNG stock is moderately bullish, with a "Moderate Buy" rating. Out of 38 analysts, 22 recommend a "Strong Buy," 2 suggest a "Moderate Buy," and 14 advise a "Hold" [6] - The average target price for BKNG is $6,081.41, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from current price levels [6]

Core Insights - Booking.com has reached a mutual agreement with French tax authorities to pay 153 million euros for a tax reassessment covering the period from 2006 to 2018 [2] Financial Performance - Booking.com exhibits a free cash flow yield of 5.5%, which is considered high compared to other stocks [7] - The company has a 3-year average revenue growth of 19.9% and an operating margin of 30.8%, indicating strong fundamentals [7] - Currently, Booking.com stock is trading 12% below its 2-year high and 8.0% below its 1-month high, with a price-to-sales ratio lower than its 3-year average [7] Investment Strategy - Investing in a diversified portfolio, such as the High Quality Portfolio (HQ), has shown to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500, achieving returns over 91% since its launch [4][10] - The HQ Portfolio has a win rate of approximately 74% for the 12-month horizon, producing an average return of nearly 18% even during stable periods [11] Market Volatility - Booking.com has experienced significant stock declines in the past, including nearly 100% during the Dot-Com Bubble and around 66% during the Global Financial Crisis [8] - The stock has also faced drops of approximately 27% and 40% due to corrections and inflation shocks in 2018, and a 45% decline during the Covid selloff [8]