Summary of Booking Holdings FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Booking Holdings (NasdaqGS: BKNG) - **Event**: FY Conference on December 09, 2025 Key Points Industry Insights - **Travel Industry Growth**: The travel sector is expected to grow faster than GDP due to increasing discretionary income and a shift from offline to online travel [10][11] - **Network Effect**: Booking Holdings benefits from a strong network effect, leading to increased customer loyalty and frequency of bookings [5][6] Company Performance - **Growth Metrics**: The company aims for an 8% growth in gross bookings and revenues, with a target of 15% EPS growth [10] - **Market Position in Asia**: Booking Holdings is the largest technology travel platform outside Mainland China, contributing to future growth [6][7] Investment Strategy - **Investment Program**: The company is investing $170 million in growth initiatives, focusing on expanding verticals like attractions and advertising, and enhancing its presence in Asia [12][17] - **Generative AI**: Investment in Generative AI is seen as a significant opportunity for future growth [12][18] Alternative Accommodations - **Market Share**: Booking Holdings has outgrown the largest player in alternative accommodations for 17 out of the last 18 quarters, with a supply growth of 10% year-over-year [19][20] - **U.S. Market Potential**: The U.S. market presents significant growth opportunities, as Booking Holdings has a relatively modest position compared to Europe and Asia [22][23] Customer Experience and Technology - **Direct Channel Growth**: The growth of the direct channel in the U.S. is a positive indicator for future performance, reflecting long-term investments in brand awareness [24][25] - **AI Tools**: The company is testing various AI tools to enhance customer experience, leading to better conversion rates and lower cancellation rates [34][36] Marketing Efficiency - **Social Media Strategy**: Booking Holdings has successfully leveraged social media channels, particularly with Meta, to capture a younger audience and improve marketing ROI [44][49] Capital Allocation - **Share Buyback Program**: The company actively returns capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with a systematic approach to managing share count [50][51] Risks and Opportunities - **Disruption from New Players**: Concerns about new agents disrupting the market are addressed by emphasizing the company's ability to enhance customer experience and maintain direct relationships [26][27][30] Conclusion - Booking Holdings is positioned for continued growth through strategic investments, a strong market presence in Asia, and innovative use of technology, particularly in AI and customer experience. The focus on alternative accommodations and effective marketing strategies further supports its growth trajectory.

Core Insights - The asset-lite business model enables Booking Holdings to achieve significant profitability [1] - The travel sector is experiencing a rebound as consumers seek to compensate for travel opportunities lost during the pandemic [1] Company Summary - Booking Holdings is leveraging its asset-lite approach to maximize profits [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from increased travel demand as restrictions ease and consumer confidence returns [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the overlooked travel destinations in the UK that offer rich history, culture, and value, contrasting with popular tourist spots [1][2] Group 1: Underrated Destinations - KAYAK's 'Not Hot' list includes destinations such as Worcester, Salford, and Lancaster, which are less searched but offer unique experiences [2][5] - These locations provide opportunities for local experiences, such as enjoying cider in Worcester and exploring the film industry in Bolton [2] Group 2: Company Background - KAYAK is identified as the world's leading travel search engine, part of Booking Holdings, and facilitates travel planning for millions of users [4]

Core Thesis - Booking Holdings Inc. is undergoing a structural transformation from a cyclical travel company to a high-margin payments platform, which is expected to enhance its profitability and market valuation [2][6]. Financial Performance - As of November 28th, Booking Holdings Inc.'s share price was $4,914.69, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 31.99 and 18.76 respectively [1]. - EBITDA margins have reached 47%, indicating that facilitating payments is generating incremental revenue faster than incremental costs [3]. Business Model Transformation - The company has shifted to a merchant-of-record model, with 72% of transactions processed through this model, up from 50% two years ago, allowing Booking to control the entire payment flow [3]. - This shift is leading to increased float income, working-capital leverage, and scalability, characteristics more typical of fintech companies [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The merchant model enhances the Connected Trip bundling and Genius loyalty programs, which improve customer retention and lifetime value [4][5]. - The $457 million impairment related to KAYAK is viewed as a strategic decision rather than a sign of weakness, as AI is commoditizing meta-search, while Booking's value lies in its ability to orchestrate multi-vertical travel transactions [4]. Market Positioning - Booking is positioning itself as the transaction and settlement layer for global travel, leveraging network effects, data scale, and regulatory complexity [6]. - If the merchant mix surpasses 75% and Connected Trip adoption continues to accelerate, the market may re-rate Booking as a global payments platform rather than just a travel company [6]. Historical Context - A previous bullish thesis highlighted the travel rebound and Booking's global platform strength, with the stock price appreciating approximately 7.46% since that coverage [7].

Core Insights - viagogo has announced a partnership with Booking.com to enhance the event-going experience for fans by allowing them to book travel accommodations alongside ticket purchases [1] - The partnership aims to cater to the growing trend of "gig-tripping," where fans travel specifically to attend live events [1] - viagogo's data indicates a significant increase in travel for live events, with a 27% rise in UK fans traveling internationally for events in 2025 compared to 2024, and a 41% increase in international buyers attending UK events [1] Company Overview - viagogo is recognized as the world's leading marketplace for buying and selling tickets to live events, servicing customers in 200 countries and territories, available in 33 languages and 48 currencies [1] - The platform offers over 300 million tickets annually for various events, including sports, music, comedy, dance, festivals, and theater [1] - Booking.com, part of Booking Holdings Inc., aims to simplify travel experiences by connecting travelers with memorable experiences through its technology [1] Partnership Details - The integration of Booking.com services into viagogo's platform allows fans to search and book accommodations, flights, car rentals, and local attractions after purchasing tickets [1] - The partnership has initially rolled out in the UK, with plans for expansion into additional markets [1] - Both companies emphasize the importance of providing a seamless and comprehensive experience for fans attending live events [1]

Core Insights - Canadians are expected to dine out an average of 6 times per month in 2026, with 41% preferring earlier dinners over late ones [1][6] - The dining out experience is seen as a way to feel connected, with 70% of Canadians agreeing on this sentiment [1][5] - OpenTable's Top 100 Restaurants in Canada for 2025 highlights both new and established dining options, showcasing the evolving culinary landscape [3][9] Dining Trends - Group dining is on the rise, with a 28% year-over-year increase for parties of six or more in 2025, and 37% of Canadians preferring group dining in 2026 [4][5] - Happy hour dining from 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM saw a 30% increase year-over-year, indicating a preference for earlier dining experiences [6] - Countertop seating has gained popularity, with a 78% increase year-over-year, allowing diners to engage more closely with the kitchen experience [7] Demographic Insights - Gen Z is projected to significantly influence the dining industry in 2026, with 60% planning to dine out more and 50% considering restaurants as their "third place" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality undervalued companies and those with strong growth potential for capital appreciation opportunities [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The focus is on purchasing high-quality undervalued companies and those that are growing at a high rate while being reasonably priced [1]. - Dividend-paying stocks are also considered for investment, provided they are from good companies and are correctly priced [1]. Group 2: Analyst's Position - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of BKNG, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance [2]. - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by any business relationships with companies mentioned [2]. Group 3: Research and Due Diligence - Investors are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence before making investment decisions, as investing carries significant risks [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment strategies focusing on capital appreciation through high-quality undervalued companies and dividend-paying stocks, emphasizing the importance of proper pricing for investment decisions. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The company is interested in capital appreciation opportunities, including purchasing high-quality undervalued companies [1] - The focus is also on investing in great companies that are growing at a high rate and are reasonably priced [1] - Dividend-paying stocks are considered for investment as long as they are good companies and correctly priced [1] Group 2: Analyst's Position - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of BKNG through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2] - The article expresses the analyst's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2] Group 3: Due Diligence - Investors are encouraged to conduct their due diligence before investing in any stock, as investing carries significant risks [3] - The article emphasizes that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [4]

Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly impacting e-commerce, with AI-driven online sales on Black Friday reaching a record high of $11.8 billion, reflecting a 9.1% year-over-year increase [1] - Online traffic surged to over 1 trillion, marking an 805% year-over-year increase, aided by AI-powered chatbots that helped customers find the best prices despite tariff-related price hikes [2] - E-commerce sales for Black Friday in 2025 are projected to grow by 10.4% year over year, with estimates for this year's sales reaching $18 billion, a 3% increase from last year [2] E-commerce Stock Recommendations - Five e-commerce stocks are recommended for investment in 2026: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), Etsy Inc. (ETSY), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), and 1stdibs.Com Inc. (DIBS), all carrying favorable Zacks Ranks [3][8] Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon is experiencing growth from its Prime and Amazon Web Services (AWS) segments, utilizing AI technologies such as the Claude chatbot and Trainium2 AI chips [6][9] - The company has invested $8 billion in Anthropic and plans to use 1 million custom Trainium2 chips for AI applications by 2025 [7] - Amazon's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 11.3% and 9.2%, respectively, with a 2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [11] Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) - Expedia is leveraging AI for personalized trip planning through tools like AI-powered search filters and itinerary builders, integrating OpenAI's ChatGPT into its app [12] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 6.3% and an earnings growth rate of 20.8% for next year, with a 7.9% improvement in earnings estimates recently [13] Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) - Booking Holdings is enhancing its travel services with AI-driven tools that improve user engagement and booking conversion rates [15] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 8.9% and an earnings growth rate of 15.8% for next year, with a slight improvement in earnings estimates [17] Etsy Inc. (ETSY) - Etsy is focusing on AI-driven personalization and advanced search ranking models to enhance user experience and drive sales [19] - The expected revenue growth rate for Etsy is 3.4%, with earnings growth projected to exceed 100% for next year [20] 1stdibs.Com Inc. (DIBS) - 1stdibs.Com connects sellers of luxury items with buyers, utilizing AI to monitor its impact on the design market [21] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 2.8% and an earnings growth rate of 32.5% for next year, with a significant improvement in earnings estimates [22]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is recognized as one of the best consumer cyclical stocks, providing travel services through various platforms and managing over four million properties [1] - As of November 28th, 23 out of 39 analysts rated Booking Holdings Inc. as a Buy, with an average share price target of $6,207.21 [2] - Bank of America upgraded Booking Holdings Inc. to Buy from Neutral, maintaining a $6,000 price target, citing that concerns over AI competition were overstated [2] Analyst Recommendations - 23 out of 39 analysts recommend Booking Holdings Inc. as a Buy, with 5 Strong Buy and 11 Hold ratings [2] - The average price target for Booking Holdings Inc. is set at $6,207.21 [2] Market Position and Performance - Booking Holdings Inc. benefits from strong relationships with hospitality firms, allowing it to retain users and offer better deals compared to AI platforms [2] - Key performance metrics include better deals, margins, and revenue per available room, which are critical for the company's success [3] Earnings Insights - During the latest earnings call, management noted that traditional search traffic is still growing year-over-year, despite concerns about AI platforms [3] - The CFO highlighted that while leads from large language models are currently small, they are on the rise, indicating a potential hybrid future between traditional search and AI [3] - Early signals show improvements in search speed, conversion rates, cancellation rates, and customer satisfaction [3]