Core Viewpoint - The current economic climate, characterized by a trade war and uncertainty, may not seem favorable for investing in discretionary travel stocks like Booking Holdings [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for investment in Booking Holdings despite the ongoing trade war and economic uncertainty [1] - The author expresses a personal interest in uncovering investment opportunities across various sectors, including equities and cryptocurrencies [1] - The author has a background in communications and an MBA, indicating a level of expertise in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author does not hold any positions in the mentioned companies but may consider initiating a long position in Booking Holdings within the next 72 hours [2] - The article emphasizes that the views expressed are personal opinions and not influenced by any compensation or business relationships [2][4] - The author encourages readers to conduct their own due diligence regarding investment decisions [3]

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Core Insights - Booking Holdings (BKNG) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $24.81 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 43.83% and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.7% [1] - Revenues reached $4.76 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.58% and growing 8% year over year, with a 10% increase on a constant currency basis [2] Financial Performance - BKNG's earnings have consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 18.98% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was approximately $1.1 billion, representing a 21% year-over-year growth and exceeding the high end of guidance by 28% [12] - Merchant revenues accounted for $2.91 billion (61.3% of total revenues), up 22.2% year over year, while agency revenues were $1.56 billion (32.8% of total revenues), down 11.3% year over year [4] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a record of 319 million room nights in the first quarter, marking the first time it exceeded 300 million in a single quarter, with a growth of over 7% year over year [5] - Total accommodation listings reached approximately 31 million, with alternative accommodations listings growing by 9% year over year to about 8.1 million [6] - Connected Trip transactions grew by 35% year over year, representing a high single-digit percentage of total transactions [7] Expense Management - Marketing expenses increased by 10% year over year, accounting for 3.8% of gross bookings, which was in line with expectations [8] - Adjusted fixed operating expenses decreased by 3% year over year, primarily due to lower general and administrative expenses [11] - Sales and other expenses as a percentage of gross bookings were 1.5%, slightly lower than the previous year, aided by efficiencies in customer service [10] Guidance - For Q2 2025, BKNG expects room night growth between 4% and 6%, gross bookings growth in the range of 10-12%, and revenue growth also between 10% and 12% [15]

Group 1 - Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) connects millions of travelers globally, providing a modern infrastructure for vacationing, including accommodations, flights, car rentals, and restaurant reservations [1] Group 2 - The focus is on long-term growth and dividend growth investing, emphasizing the importance of profitability over low valuation, with a particular interest in margins, free cash flow stability, and returns on invested capital [2]

Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation April 29, 2025 Adjusted Financial Measures: While the Company reports financial results in accordance with accounting principles ("GAAP") generally accepted in the United States, this presentation includes certain Adjusted "Non-GAAP" measures, including Adjusted EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Net Income, and Adjusted Net Income per Diluted Common Share (Adjusted EPS), which are not presented in accordance with GAAP or intended to be substitutes for GAAP measures. The Company ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, room nights reached 319 million, exceeding 300 million for the first time, growing over 7% year over year [4][18] - Revenue for Q1 was $4.8 billion, an 8% increase year over year, while adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1.1 billion, up 21% year over year [4][25] - Adjusted earnings per share grew 22% year over year, reflecting strong bottom line performance [5][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alternative accommodations room night growth was 12% in Q1, with a global mix of alternative accommodation room nights at 37%, up one percentage point from the previous year [22][10] - Airline ticket bookings increased by 45% year over year, indicating strong growth in the flight platform [13][23] - Attraction ticket bookings surged by 92% year over year, although starting from a modest base [23][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Room nights growth by region showed Europe and Asia up in high single digits, the rest of the world in low double digits, while the U.S. was up in low single digits [18][19] - There was a noted decrease in length of stay in the U.S., suggesting consumers may be more cautious with spending [20][19] - The direct booking channel grew faster than room nights acquired through paid marketing channels, indicating a shift in traveler preferences [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating AI technology across platforms to enhance traveler experiences and operational efficiency [6][14] - Strategic initiatives include increasing alternative accommodations, enhancing the Genius loyalty program, and building towards a connected trip vision [6][12] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to managing fixed expenses while investing in growth opportunities [27][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the travel industry despite current geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [5][6] - The company is prepared to navigate potential changes in the environment due to its global diversification and strong liquidity [6][30] - There is recognition of stable global leisure travel demand, although caution is advised regarding consumer spending trends [5][31] Other Important Information - The company reported a cash and investments balance of $16.1 billion at the end of Q1, down from $16.7 billion in Q4 due to capital returns and debt repayments [29][30] - Transformation costs incurred in Q1 were $32 million, with expectations of achieving approximately $300 million in annual run rate savings [29][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the confidence in travel vertical specific agents and the shift in travel patterns? - Management believes both broad and narrow AI capabilities will coexist, enhancing the booking experience [39][40] - There is stable global demand, but shifts in travel preferences are noted, particularly with Europeans traveling less to the U.S. [44][46] Question: What is the strategy for attractions and the AgenTiC tools? - The company is excited about the 92% growth in attractions, viewing it as part of the connected trip vision [53][54] - The AgenTiC tools are still in beta, with ongoing improvements expected over time [60][62] Question: Are there changes in competitive focus or marketing performance? - The company is maintaining its long-term investment strategy without significant shifts in focus [69][70] - Marketing performance is improving, with positive outcomes from traditional channels despite lower average ROIs [72][73] Question: What is the reasoning behind the widening of the annual guidance range? - The widening reflects increased uncertainty in the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, while still maintaining high single-digit growth expectations [80][81] Question: How does generative AI impact direct mix and acquisition strategies? - The direct mix is expected to continue increasing, with generative AI tools potentially enhancing customer engagement and direct bookings [89][90]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings reported $46.7 billion in gross bookings for Q1 2025, a 7% year-over-year increase, and $4.8 billion in revenue, up 8% year-over-year, driven by diversified offerings and growth in room nights, rental cars, and airline ticket sales [1][4][5] - Despite a 57% drop in GAAP net income due to transformation costs, adjusted EPS rose 22% and EBITDA increased by 21%, indicating a focus on cost efficiency and operational execution [2][14] - The company is advancing its "connected trip" vision, utilizing AI tools and enhancing its loyalty program to improve customer experience and reduce marketing reliance [1][11] Financial Performance - Gross bookings increased by 7% year-over-year, with room nights booked growing by 7% to 319 million [4][9] - Revenue climbed to $4.8 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year, or a 10% rise when adjusted for constant currency [1][4] - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 22%, while adjusted EBITDA climbed by 21%, showcasing operational efficiency [2][14] Market Position and Strategy - The company benefits from a globally diversified platform and significant cash reserves, providing a buffer against macroeconomic uncertainties [5][6] - Booking Holdings is capitalizing on trends toward online and mobile travel bookings, expanding its product portfolio to include flights, rental cars, dining, and experiences [7][10] - Recent platform enhancements, including AI-powered travel planning tools, aim to boost customer loyalty and reduce dependence on paid marketing [11][12] Transformation and Future Outlook - Booking Holdings is executing a transformation plan aimed at improving expense efficiency and customer offerings, with related costs totaling $32 million in Q1 [13][14] - The company acknowledges the transformative potential of generative AI technologies for the travel sector, with 52% of customers expecting AI to assist with interactions [12][11] - The travel landscape remains volatile, and the company must balance growth initiatives with disciplined execution to maintain its competitive edge [8][7]

Core Viewpoint - Booking has lowered its full-year revenue forecast due to increased economic uncertainty, despite reporting a strong first-quarter performance that exceeded market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Booking's first-quarter revenue reached $4.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, surpassing market expectations [1]. - The adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $24.81, significantly higher than Wall Street's expectation of $17.45 [1]. - Total travel bookings, including taxes and fees, amounted to $46.7 billion, slightly above the expected $46.5 billion [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company has revised its full-year total bookings and revenue growth expectations to "mid-to-high single digits" at constant exchange rates, down from a previous expectation of "at least 8%" [1]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the online travel sector's performance this quarter to gauge U.S. consumer confidence amid concerns over potential economic recession due to trade policies [1][2]. - Booking's CEO noted a stable level of global leisure travel demand at the beginning of the second quarter, with expected growth in bookings of 4% to 6% [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Following the earnings report, Booking's stock fell 3.2% in after-hours trading, with competitors Airbnb and Expedia also experiencing declines [2]. - The company is less susceptible to domestic macroeconomic uncertainties compared to U.S. peers, as approximately 90% of its revenue comes from international markets [2]. Group 4: Long-term Confidence - Despite warnings about the business being more susceptible to currency fluctuations, the CEO expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the travel industry, citing the company's global presence and strong cash flow [3].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 experienced its sixth consecutive day of gains, with no negative impact from economic data or earnings reports [1] - The Dow increased by 300 points (+0.75%), the S&P 500 rose by 32 points (+0.58%), and the Nasdaq grew by 95 points (+0.55%) [2] - Bond yields decreased, with the 10-year yield at 4.17% and the 2-year yield at 3.65% [2] Housing Market - The Case Shiller Home Price Index for February showed a headline increase of +3.9%, which is 20 basis points lower than the previous month [3] - The 10-City survey reported a +5.2% increase, down from +5.7%, while the 20-City index showed a +4.5% increase, down from +4.7% [3] - Notable cities for rising home prices included New York City (+7.7%), Chicago (+7.0%), and Cleveland (+6.6%) [3] Labor Market - The JOLTS report for March indicated job openings at 7.19 million, below the expected 7.5 million, with the previous month revised down to 7.5 million [5] - Job quits remained stable at 3.3 million, with a quits rate of +2.1% [6] - Layoffs in the retail sector decreased by 66,000, and federal government layoffs fell by 11,000 [6] Consumer Confidence - The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April dropped to 86.0, below the expected 87.3 and down 7.9 points from the previous month [7] - The Expectations Index fell to 54.4, a decrease of -12.5 month over month, marking the lowest level since October 2011 [8] - 32.1% of consumers expect fewer jobs in the next six months, the highest rate since April 2009 [8] Company Earnings - Visa reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.76 per share, exceeding expectations of $2.68 and the previous year's $2.51, with revenues of $9.59 billion slightly above the anticipated $9.56 billion [10] - Starbucks missed both earnings and revenue expectations for fiscal Q2, reporting earnings of 41 cents per share and revenues of $8.76 billion, below the expected $8.79 billion [12] - Booking Holdings posted strong Q1 results with earnings of $24.81 per share and revenues of $4.76 billion, surpassing expectations [13] - Seagate Technologies exceeded estimates with fiscal Q3 earnings of $1.90 per share and revenues of $2.16 billion, raising guidance for the next quarter to $2.40 per share [14]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings reported $4.76 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 7.9% and an EPS of $24.81 compared to $20.39 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates [1] - The company achieved a revenue surprise of +3.58% and an EPS surprise of +43.83% compared to consensus estimates [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross Bookings totaled $46.70 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $46.40 billion [4] - Agency Gross Bookings were $15.50 billion, below the average estimate of $16.38 billion [4] - Merchant Gross Bookings reached $31.20 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $30 billion [4] - Units Sold for Room Nights were 319 million, slightly above the estimate of 317.86 million [4] - Units Sold for Airline Tickets were 16 million, significantly above the estimate of 13.23 million [4] - Rental Car Days sold were 22 million, slightly below the average estimate of 22.89 million [4] - Agency Revenues were $1.56 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.59 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of -11.3% [4] - Advertising and Other Revenues were $280 million, above the average estimate of $275.31 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.1% [4] - Merchant Revenues were $2.92 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.72 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +22.2% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Booking Holdings returned +6.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which changed by -0.8% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]