Core Insights - The article compares Mizuho (MFG) and Banco Macro (BMA) to determine which stock is more attractive for value investors [1] - MFG has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), while BMA has a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating a more favorable analyst outlook for MFG [3] - Value investors typically analyze various fundamental metrics to identify undervalued stocks [3] Valuation Metrics - MFG has a forward P/E ratio of 10.94, compared to BMA's forward P/E of 16.81, suggesting MFG is more attractively priced [5] - The PEG ratio for MFG is 0.79, while BMA's PEG ratio is 1.47, indicating MFG's expected earnings growth is more favorable [5] - MFG's P/B ratio is 1.11, while BMA's P/B ratio is 1.24, further supporting MFG's valuation attractiveness [6] Conclusion - MFG exhibits stronger estimate revision activity and more appealing valuation metrics than BMA, making it the preferred choice for value investors [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of connecting macroeconomic context with company-level valuation to identify long-term investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on a deep-value approach with a long-term vision, targeting underfollowed or undervalued companies where fundamentals are often overlooked [1] - Established leaders are also considered when new opportunities or structural value emerge [1] Group 2: Market Perspective - Being based in Argentina provides a unique perspective on a complex and dynamic market, allowing for in-depth coverage of local assets while also exploring broader Latin American and global trends [1]

Group 1 - Argentine financial markets experienced a rally following the overwhelming victory of Javier Milei's party in the midterm elections, with voters supporting economic reforms through fiscal tightening and free market measures [1][2] - The election results ensure the continuation of U.S. financial aid to Argentina, as President Trump had previously stated that support would depend on the election outcome [1] - Several Argentine stocks surged in pre-market trading, with Banco BBVA rising over 36%, Galicia Financial up 35%, Grupo Supervielle increasing by 31%, Banco Macro climbing 35%, and YPF and Pampa Energía both recording 26% gains [1] Group 2 - Despite a 17.7% year-to-date decline in the Argentine benchmark S&P MERVAL index, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF saw a 16% increase in pre-market trading, narrowing its year-to-date loss to 10% [2] - The midterm elections involved the renewal of half of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate, with Milei's party receiving approximately 41% of the votes compared to 31% for the leftist opposition [2] - Prior to the election, Argentine assets had experienced a downturn due to political tensions following Milei's party's losses in key local elections [2]

Core Viewpoint - Banco Macro is initiating a share repurchase program worth up to $157 million, which has positively impacted its stock price, leading to a significant increase in its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) [1][2]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Program - Banco Macro's board has authorized a buyback of up to 225 billion Argentine pesos ($157 million) for its Class B stock [2]. - The bank will pay a maximum of 7,500 pesos ($5.25) per share for the buyback [3]. - The repurchase program is set to last for 60 days, with the possibility of extension, and will be announced in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange Bulletin [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the buyback program, Banco Macro's ADRs surged over 17%, outperforming the S&P 500, which declined by 0.3% on the same trading day [1].

Group 1 - Banco Macro S.A. has been recognized as one of the best capitalized banks in the Argentine banking system, which has led to an upgrade in its stock rating from Hold to Buy by HSBC analyst Carlos Gomez-Lopez [3] - The company reported fiscal second-quarter results on August 27, 2025, exceeding revenue and EPS estimates by $3.93 million and $0.01, respectively [2] - Despite the positive earnings report, Banco Macro's share price has declined over 24% since the announcement [2] Group 2 - HSBC has lowered its price target for Banco Macro from $104 to $80 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating a potential investment opportunity despite recent price declines [1] - The bank has a history of leveraging volatile periods for favorable acquisitions, suggesting a strategic advantage in the current market environment [3] - The article mentions that while Banco Macro has investment potential, certain AI stocks may offer greater upside with less downside risk [4]

Core Points - Banco Macro S.A. has announced a share repurchase program in response to the current macroeconomic conditions and fluctuations in the capital market affecting its share price [1] - The Board of Directors has set a maximum investment amount of Ps. $225,000,000,000 for the repurchase [2] - The maximum number of shares to be acquired is up to 30,000,000 Class B common shares, which is within the Bank's 10% capital stock limit [2] - The maximum payable price for the shares is set at Ps. $7,500 per share [3] - The acquisition term is 60 calendar days, starting from the day after the publication of the relevant information in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange Bulletin [3] - The Bank will adhere to regulations that limit daily acquisitions to 25% of the average daily transaction volume over the previous 90 business days [4]

Core Viewpoint - Banco Macro's stock is currently in a bearish outlook following a breakdown of its Cakra structure, indicating systemic weakness in both its ADR and home-country listing [5][6]. Summary by Sections Adhishthana Cycle Overview - Banco Macro is in Phase 8 of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle, with a transition from Phase 4 in September 2022 through Phase 6, before entering a problematic Phase 7 [1][2]. Phase 7 Dynamics - In Phase 7, Banco Macro experienced a significant decline, breaking below its Cakra and triggering the Move of Pralaya, which is characterized by strong selling pressure [3][4]. Stock Performance - The stock price of Banco Macro fell from approximately $80 to around $40, representing a decline of over 50% [4]. Investor Outlook - The breakdown of the Cakra suggests a bearish outlook for Banco Macro, with potential underperformance extending until 2029 due to the Guna Triads not beginning until then [5][6]. Market Sentiment - Despite buy ratings from institutions like HSBC, the stock is not considered a value play, and any short-term rallies are unlikely to be sustainable [6][7].

Group 1 - Banco Macro (NYSE: BMA) is viewed as a favorable investment opportunity due to Argentina's improving macroeconomic conditions following liberal reforms by President Javier Milei [1] - The financial sector is experiencing positive changes, which may enhance the performance of Banco Macro [1] Group 2 - The article reflects a long position in Banco Macro shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banco Macro's net income for Q2 2025 totaled ARS 101.1 billion, representing a 209% increase compared to the previous quarter, primarily driven by higher net interest income and net fee income [4][5] - Total comprehensive income for the quarter reached ARS 157.1 billion, a 241% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The annualized ROE and ROA were reported at 123.5% [5] - Provision for loan losses increased by 47% quarter on quarter and 349% year on year, totaling ARS 103 billion [6][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income for Q2 2025 was ARS 696.9 billion, a 14% increase from the previous quarter and a 163% increase year on year [6][7] - Income from interest on loans increased by 19% quarter on quarter and 30% year on year, representing 69% of total interest income [8] - Net fee income totaled ARS 108.4 billion, a 16% increase from the previous quarter and a 34% increase year on year, with credit card fees increasing by 90% [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banco Macro's market share in private sector loans reached 9.2% as of June 2025 [15] - Total deposits increased by 4% quarter on quarter and 13% year on year, with private sector deposits also increasing by 4% quarter on quarter [16][17] - The nonperforming loans (NPL) ratio reached 2.06%, with consumer portfolio NPLs deteriorating to 2.81% [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank aims to maintain a loan growth guidance of 60% for 2025 and a deposit growth guidance of 30% [38][39] - Banco Macro is focused on optimizing its deposit base and improving efficiency standards while managing asset quality [18][19] - The bank is open to analyzing potential M&A opportunities if favorable conditions arise [51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted an increase in funding costs and anticipated some reduction in net interest margins (NIMs) in Q3 due to market volatility [24][26] - The bank expects NPLs to increase to between 2.5% to 3% of total loans by the end of the year due to high real interest rates [26][33] - The effective income tax rate was reported at 39%, lower than the previous year [14] Other Important Information - Banco Macro's capital adequacy ratio was reported at 30.5%, with a Tier one ratio of 9% [18] - The bank's liquidity remains strong, with a liquid assets to total deposit ratio of 67% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact on NIMs and asset quality from interest rate volatility - Management acknowledged higher volatility and increased funding costs, forecasting a slight reduction in NIMs for Q3 [24][26] Question: ROE expectations for the second half of the year - Management maintained an ROE guidance of 8% to 10% for 2025 [26] Question: Cost of risk expectations - Management estimated a cost of risk similar to the previous year, around 4% [27] Question: Tier one ratio forecast - Management forecasted a Tier one ratio of approximately 28.75% by the end of 2025 [30] Question: Quality of the retail loan portfolio - Management noted some deterioration in asset quality due to rising interest rates, expecting continued deterioration in the third quarter [32][33] Question: Funding growth strategy - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining growth in both peso and dollar deposits while managing funding costs [36][38] Question: Loan growth guidance - Management confirmed a loan growth guidance of 60% for 2025 and a deposit growth guidance of 30% [39][40]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banco Macro's net income for Q2 2025 totaled ARS 101.1 billion, representing a 209% increase compared to the previous quarter, primarily driven by higher net interest income and net fee income [4][5] - Total comprehensive income for the quarter reached ARS 157.1 billion, a 241% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The annualized ROE and ROA were reported at 123.5% [5] - Provision for loan losses increased by 47% quarter-on-quarter and 349% year-on-year, totaling ARS 103 billion [6] - Net interest income for Q2 2025 was ARS 696.9 billion, a 14% increase from the previous quarter and a 163% increase year-on-year [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Income from interest on loans increased by 19% quarter-on-quarter and 30% year-on-year, totaling ARS 746.1 billion [7] - Income from government and private securities rose by 18% quarter-on-quarter and 54% year-on-year [7][8] - Net fee income for Q2 2025 was ARS 108.4 billion, a 16% increase from the previous quarter and a 34% increase year-on-year [11] - Other operating income decreased by 37% quarter-on-quarter and 24% year-on-year, totaling ARS 45.8 billion [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banco Macro's market share in private sector loans reached 9.2% as of June 2025 [16] - Total deposits increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year, totaling ARS 62 trillion [17] - Nonperforming loans to total financial ratio was reported at 2.06% [18] - The current ratio of total allowances under expected credit losses over nonperforming loans was 137% [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a loan growth guidance of 60% for 2025 and a deposit growth guidance of 30% [40][41] - Banco Macro is focused on optimizing its deposit base and improving efficiency standards while managing asset quality [19][20] - The bank is open to M&A opportunities but currently has no specific targets [53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted an increase in funding costs and anticipated a slight reduction in net interest margins for Q3 2025 due to market volatility [24][26] - The bank expects some deterioration in asset quality, projecting nonperforming loans to rise to between 2.5% to 3% of total loans by year-end [28][35] - The effective income tax rate was reported at 39%, lower than the previous year [14] Other Important Information - Banco Macro's capital adequacy ratio was reported at 30.5%, with an excess capital of ARS 3.13 trillion [19] - The liquidity ratio of liquid assets to total deposits was 67% [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact on NIMs and asset quality from interest rate volatility - Management acknowledged higher volatility and increased funding costs but noted that net interest margins had widened in Q2 2025. They expect a slight reduction in NIMs for Q3 due to these factors [24][26] Question: ROE expectations for the second half of 2025 - Management maintained the ROE guidance range of 8% to 10% for 2025, despite macroeconomic challenges [28] Question: Quality of the retail loan portfolio - Management indicated a general deterioration in asset quality across the system, with expectations of continued increases in delinquency rates [35] Question: Funding strategy and loan growth guidance - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining growth in both peso and dollar deposits, with a loan growth guidance of 60% for 2025 [40][41] Question: Inflation adjustment item in the P&L - Management confirmed that the inflation adjustment item is due to inflation accounting [55] Question: Expected loan growth for 2025 and 2026 - Management projected a 60% loan growth for 2025 and a 45% growth for 2026 [56]