证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025 年蒙煤电子竞拍梳理 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 70.69 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.81 美元/桶（+7.3%）；WTI 原油期货结算价为 65.21 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.14 美元/桶（+6.78%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.68 美元/百万英热，较上周 下降 0.13 美元/百万英热（-1.11%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 40.65 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.28 欧元/兆瓦时（+3.24%）；美国 HH 天然气期 货结算价为 4.42 美元/百万英热，较上周下降 0.94 美元/百万英热（-17.5%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 101.5 美元/吨，较上周 上涨 3 美元/吨（+3.05%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 116.75 美 元/吨，较上周上涨 5.25 美元/吨（+4.71%）；IPE 南非理查兹湾煤炭期货 ...

Group 1 - Peabody will announce its fourth quarter and year-end financial results for December 31, 2025, during an investor conference call on February 5, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time [1] - The earnings release will be distributed via PR Newswire before the market opens on February 5 and will also be posted on the company's website [2] - Peabody is a leading coal producer, focusing on providing essential products for affordable and reliable energy and steel production, with a commitment to sustainability shaping its future strategy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [10][36]. Core Insights - The coal production in December 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline of 1%, with a total output of 440 million tons. The annual production for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 1.2% compared to the previous year. For 2026, the domestic thermal coal production is expected to increase by only 20-30 million tons, reaching 3.85 billion tons, which is a growth of approximately 0.6% [1][13]. - Coal imports in December 2025 increased by 11.94% year-on-year, totaling 58.597 million tons. However, the total imports for the year were 49.027 million tons, a decrease of 9.6% compared to 2024. The report anticipates stable coal import levels in 2026, with significant attention on potential changes from the U.S. and Indonesia [2][17][21]. - The report highlights a 3.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in December 2025, with total industrial power generation showing a marginal increase of 0.1%. The overall industrial power generation for the year was 971.59 billion kWh, up 2.2% from 2024 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Production - December coal production decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a total of 440 million tons produced. The daily average production was 14.1 million tons, and the total for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, up 1.2% [1][13][14]. Imports - December coal imports rose by 11.94% year-on-year, amounting to 58.597 million tons. The total imports for 2025 were 49.027 million tons, down 9.6% from the previous year. The report expects stable import levels in 2026, with a focus on U.S. and Indonesian market dynamics [2][17][21]. Demand - Thermal power generation in December 2025 fell by 3.2% year-on-year, while total industrial power generation increased slightly by 0.1%. The total for the year was 971.59 billion kWh, reflecting a 2.2% increase from 2024 [3][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [9]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a potential turning point driven by AI reshaping demand in the U.S. and supply constraints from Indonesia [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring "black swan" events that could significantly impact coal prices, particularly changes in domestic policies and increased demand from the U.S. [3]. - The report indicates that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamentals but could see price increases if unexpected events occur [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3690.69 points, down 3.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.77 percentage points [4][74]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3 RMB/ton [30]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption remains strong, and pre-holiday production cuts are expected, suggesting a continued upward trend in coal prices [15]. - **Coking Coal**: Increased purchasing by steel companies is driving coking coal prices higher, with significant price increases noted in various coal types [35][48]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the coal market is mixed, with some participants optimistic about future demand due to weather changes and others concerned about weak terminal demand [32]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and others, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [11][10]. - Companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa are highlighted for their potential recovery and growth prospects [11]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with low-sulfur coking coal prices rising by 100 RMB/ton week-on-week [35]. - The report notes that the average profit per ton of coking coal has decreased, indicating pressure on margins for some producers [72]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of thermal coal at major ports was reported at 6440 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6 million tons [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches, which typically affects supply [15]. Conclusion - The coal industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for price increases driven by demand shifts and supply constraints. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong market positions and growth potential in this evolving landscape [3][11].

Core Insights - Peabody's CEO Jim Grech has been appointed Chair of the National Coal Council, emphasizing the importance of coal in U.S. energy security and affordability [1][2] - U.S. coal-fueled generation increased by an estimated 13% in 2025, driven by extended coal plant lifespans and rising electricity demand from AI and data centers [2] - The National Coal Council advises the Secretary of Energy on coal-related policies, highlighting coal's affordability, reliability, and its role in steelmaking and critical minerals [3][4] Company Overview - Peabody is the largest coal producer in the U.S., operating eight thermal coal mines and one metallurgical coal mine domestically, along with five metallurgical coal mines and two seaborne thermal coal mines in Australia [6] - The North Antelope Rochelle Mine in Wyoming is the largest surface coal mine in the Western Hemisphere, producing 12% of U.S. coal [6] - Jim Grech, with over 35 years of experience in the coal and natural resources industry, has been with Peabody since 2021 and holds various board memberships [5]

Peabody Energy ( BTU ), the largest US-listed coal miner, has seen its valuation jump by more than 300% over the past 8 months. In this piece, I will try to demonstrate that BTU should be avoided, if you do notAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ...

Group 1 - Roblox, Brunswick, and Peabody Energy are highlighted as companies with bullish charts this week [1]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Coal industry is experiencing significant challenges as coal usage in U.S. thermal power plants declines, with projections indicating a continued decrease in demand due to the rise of renewable energy sources [1][3] - The U.S. has an estimated 252 billion short tons of recoverable coal reserves, with 58% classified as underground mineable, expected to last for decades at current production levels [3] - Five U.S. states account for approximately 70% of annual coal production and 60% of coal extracted from surface mines, but the industry faces long-term challenges as coal demand declines [3] Trends Impacting the Industry - Environmental policies are negatively affecting coal usage, with the U.S. Sustainability Plan aiming for 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050 [4] - Natural gas has become more cost-efficient, and renewables are gaining traction, leading to a projected decline in coal's share of U.S. electricity generation to 16% by 2026 [5][6] - Coal production in the U.S. is expected to decrease to 520 million short tons in 2026 from 531 million short tons in 2024, driven by lower demand and higher renewable energy usage [6] Export and Production Outlook - U.S. coal export volumes are projected to increase by 1% in 2026, primarily due to an 8% rise in metallurgical coal shipments, supported by expansions and reopenings of mines [2][7] - Despite a decrease in overall coal production, companies like Warrior Met Coal, Peabody Energy, and Ramaco Resources are expected to benefit from their high-quality metallurgical coal production during this challenging phase [2] Industry Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Coal industry currently ranks 235, placing it in the bottom 4% of 244 Zacks industries, indicating weak near-term performance prospects [8][9] - The coal industry has outperformed the Zacks Oil and Gas sector and the S&P 500 composite over the past year, with a gain of 28.8% compared to 8.9% and 19.7% respectively [11] - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.58X, significantly lower than the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 18.8X [14] Company Highlights - **Warrior Met Coal, Inc.**: Produces premium quality metallurgical coal, with a projected earnings per share increase of 854.5% year-over-year for 2026 and a current dividend yield of 0.36% [16][17] - **Peabody Energy Corporation**: Engages in coal mining with flexibility to increase volumes, showing a projected earnings per share increase of 909.3% year-over-year for 2026 and a current dividend yield of 0.98% [21][22] - **Ramaco Resources, Inc.**: Focuses on high-quality metallurgical coal, with a projected earnings per share growth of 136.45% year-over-year for 2026 and a current dividend yield of 1.1% [25][26]

Leadership Transition - Peabody Energy Corp, the largest US coal miner, will see Jim Grech step down as head in mid-2028 [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the market perception of the company as solely a mobile CIS chip supplier is overly pessimistic, as its business structure is shifting towards non-mobile sectors, particularly automotive CIS, which is expected to surpass mobile CIS revenue in 2025 [3][4] - Automotive CIS revenue is projected to exceed 80 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, indicating a strong position in the mid-to-high-end market [3] - The mobile CIS segment is expected to see a decline, with revenues dropping to approximately 80 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for less than 30% of total revenue due to the lifecycle nearing the end for certain product models [4] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 301.6 billion yuan, 375.7 billion yuan, and 436.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 24.6%, and 16.2% [5] - Projected net profits for the same years are 47.0 billion yuan, 63.3 billion yuan, and 75.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 41.5%, 34.6%, and 18.5% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading domestic CIS player [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report notes that the communication sector has shown significant growth, with a 1-year increase of 78.3%, while the real estate sector has declined by 8.7% over the same period [1] - The coal industry is experiencing a decrease in both production and imports, with November coal production down by 0.5% year-on-year and imports down by 19.9% [8][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the optical fiber and cable market, driven by AI demand and a stabilization in ordinary cable prices, suggesting a positive outlook for companies in this sector [6]