Company Overview - Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) was founded in 2019 and specializes in advanced heating, ventilation, refrigeration, air conditioning, fire, security, and building automation technologies globally. The company has a market capitalization of $47.4 billion and operates through the HVAC and Refrigeration segments [1]. Earnings Expectations - Carrier Global is expected to release its Q4 2025 earnings soon, with analysts anticipating a profit of $0.39 per share, which represents a decline of 27.8% from $0.54 per share in the same quarter last year. The company has exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters [2]. - For fiscal 2025, analysts expect CARR to report an EPS of $2.64, reflecting a nearly 3.1% increase from $2.56 in fiscal 2024. EPS is projected to grow 9.5% year over year to $2.89 in fiscal 2026 [3]. Stock Performance - CARR stock has declined by 16.7% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 19.7%, and the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF, which returned 24.2% during the same period [4]. Dividend Announcement - On December 3, CARR stock rose by 1.5% following the announcement of a $0.24 per-share quarterly dividend, which represents a 200% increase since early 2020. This reflects the company's disciplined approach to capital allocation and commitment to shareholder value. The dividend is set to be payable on February 9 [5]. Analyst Ratings - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic consensus opinion on CARR, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Among 23 analysts, 11 recommend a "Strong Buy," one a "Moderate Buy," and 11 suggest a "Hold." The average analyst price target for CARR is $72.05, indicating a potential upside of 30.1% from current levels [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) industry and liquid cooling technologies, particularly in relation to NVIDIA's new Vera Rubin chip platform [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Advancements in Liquid Cooling**: NVIDIA's CEO announced that the new Vera Rubin chips can be cooled using liquid cooling systems instead of traditional water chillers, which has implications for HVAC OEMs [1]. 2. **Market Reaction**: Following the announcement, HVAC OEMs such as Johnson Controls (JCI), Trane Technologies (TT), and Carrier Global (CARR) experienced a sell-off, while liquid cooling companies like nVent Electric (NVT) and Vertiv (VRT) saw modest gains [1]. 3. **Continued Need for Traditional Chillers**: Despite the advancements, traditional chillers remain essential for cooling data centers, especially during peak temperature days, indicating that the sell-off of HVAC OEMs may have been unwarranted [2]. 4. **Collaboration with Chip Manufacturers**: HVAC OEMs are actively collaborating with chip manufacturers on next-generation technology roadmaps, exemplified by TT's partnership with NVIDIA on a thermal management system for AI infrastructure [2]. 5. **Future of Liquid Cooling**: The need for advanced liquid cooling technologies is expected to grow as next-generation chips will have significantly higher compute capacities, necessitating continued innovation in cooling solutions [2]. 6. **Two-Phase Cooling Adoption**: The CES announcement may accelerate the adoption of two-phase cooling technologies, which are anticipated to be more energy-efficient than current single-phase systems [2]. 7. **Investment Activity**: JCI's investment of approximately $25 million in Accelsius, a leader in dual-phase cooling, highlights the industry's shift towards more advanced cooling solutions [2]. Additional Considerations 1. **Short-Term Market Volatility**: The industry has seen several short-term sell-offs due to new technology developments, which have historically provided "buy the dip" opportunities for investors [2][6]. 2. **Earnings Outlook**: The upcoming 4Q earnings reports are expected to address the resilience and growth potential of both HVAC OEMs and liquid cooling companies, which could influence market sentiment [2]. 3. **Valuation and Risks**: - nVent Electric (NVT) is rated as a Buy with a 12-month price target of $145, based on a multiple of 21.0x EBITDA [10]. - Vertiv (VRT) is also rated as a Buy with a price target of $204, based on a multiple of 23x EBITDA [11]. - Carrier Global (CARR) and Johnson Controls (JCI) are rated as Buy with price targets of $68 and $137, respectively, while Trane Technologies (TT) is rated Neutral with a price target of $458 [13][15][16]. Conclusion - The developments at CES 2026 signal a transformative period for the HVAC and liquid cooling industries, with significant implications for market dynamics and investment opportunities. The ongoing collaboration between HVAC OEMs and chip manufacturers, along with advancements in cooling technologies, will be critical in shaping the future landscape of the industry [2].

Core Viewpoint - The cooling systems manufacturers experienced significant stock declines following comments from Nvidia's CEO regarding reduced demand for their products in data centers [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Johnson Controls International Plc (JCI) saw its shares drop as much as 11%, marking the worst intraday decline since 2022 [1]. - Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD) experienced a more severe decline, with shares falling as much as 21% [1]. - Carrier Global Corp. (CARR) and Trane Technologies Plc (TT) also faced stock price reductions, although specific percentages were not provided [1]. Group 2: Nvidia's Comments - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated that their next-generation Rubin chips could cool racks using water at temperatures that do not necessitate a water chiller [2]. - Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell emphasized the importance of Nvidia's comments, suggesting that they should not be dismissed lightly due to Nvidia's central role in the AI ecosystem [2].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the demand for data center cooling products have been raised following comments from NVIDIA's CEO, leading to significant stock declines for cooling system manufacturers [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Johnson Controls, a manufacturer of water cooling equipment, saw its stock drop by 11%, marking the largest intraday decline since 2022 [1] - Modine experienced a stock decrease of 21% [1] - Other companies such as Carrier Global and Trane Technologies also faced declines in their stock prices [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang suggested that cooling for racks equipped with the next-generation Rubin chip could be achieved without traditional chiller units [1] - Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell emphasized the importance of NVIDIA's statements due to the company's central role in the AI ecosystem, indicating that their comments should not be underestimated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cooling stocks for data centers experienced a significant decline following Jensen Huang's comments regarding data center cooling solutions at the CES event, indicating a potential shift in technology that could impact the market dynamics for these companies [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Data center cooling stocks collectively dropped, with Johnson Controls and Trane Technologies falling by 10% at one point [1] - Modine experienced a decline of up to 20% [1] - Carrier and Vertiv Technologies saw declines exceeding 5% [1] Group 2: Technological Implications - Jensen Huang stated that servers equipped with the new Rubin chip could utilize cooling methods that do not require water, suggesting a significant change in cooling technology [1] - The airflow requirements for the new Rubin chip servers are comparable to those of the existing Blackwell chip servers, indicating a potential for reduced cooling costs and infrastructure changes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the stock prices of data center cooling concept stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Trane Technologies (TT), Carrier Global (CARR), Johnson Controls (JCI), Modine Manufacturing (MOD), and Vertiv Holdings (VRT) [1] Group 2 - Trane Technologies (TT) experienced a drop of over 10% in early trading [1] - Carrier Global (CARR) saw a decline of approximately 6.6% [1] - Johnson Controls (JCI) fell by 10.8% [1] - Modine Manufacturing (MOD) reported a decrease of 13.5% [1] - Vertiv Holdings (VRT) declined by 6% [1] - Investors are paying close attention to the latest remarks from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang [1]

Group 1 - Data center cooling stocks experienced a significant decline on January 6, with major companies like Johnson Controls and Trane Technologies dropping by 10% at one point [1] - Modine Industries saw a more severe decline, with its stock falling by 20% during the trading session [1] - Carrier and Vertiv Technologies also faced losses, with both companies' stocks decreasing by over 5% [1]

Core Insights - Automated Logic Contracting Services, Inc. (ALCS) has acquired substantially all assets of CCG Automation, Inc., enhancing its position in the building automation market [1][2] - The acquisition aims to strengthen ALCS's footprint in Ohio and leverage CCG's 28 years of expertise in energy services and building automation [2][3] - CCG Automation specializes in designing, installing, and servicing building automation systems across various sectors, including healthcare, education, and commercial real estate [2][3] Company Overview - Automated Logic Corporation provides innovative building-management solutions focused on maximizing energy efficiency and sustainable operations [4] - The company controls and monitors building functions such as heating, air conditioning, and lighting for multiple markets through a network of independent dealers and branch offices [4] - Automated Logic is part of Carrier Global Corporation, a leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Bristol Gate Capital Partners' US Equity Strategy underperformed the S&P 500® Total Return Index in Q3 2025, primarily due to limited exposure to the AI/TMT and Value sectors, which benefited from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [1] - The portfolio achieved a 15% dividend growth over the trailing 12 months, supported by strong underlying fundamentals [1] Group 2: Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE:CARR) - Carrier Global Corporation's stock experienced a one-month return of -0.72% and a 52-week decline of 21.73%, closing at $53.43 per share with a market capitalization of $45.47 billion on December 30, 2025 [2] - Despite quarterly results meeting or exceeding consensus estimates, Carrier's stock fell due to concerns over weak US residential HVAC orders and negative product mix affecting margins [3] - CEO David Gitlin indicated a lower Q3 volume forecast at a Morgan Stanley industry conference, citing a nearly 30% reduction in industry volumes for July and similar declines projected for August and September, with high interest rates and dealer destocking as primary headwinds [3] Group 3: Hedge Fund Interest - Carrier Global Corporation was held by 48 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a decrease from 53 in the previous quarter, indicating reduced interest among hedge funds [4] - While acknowledging Carrier's potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Impax Asset Management's "Impax Global Environmental Markets Fund" reported a 4.55% return in Q3 2025, underperforming the MSCI ACWI index which returned 7.62% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Global equities experienced strong gains in Q3 2025 due to solid macroeconomic conditions, rising corporate earnings, fiscal stimulus, and banking deregulation [1] - The focus on hypergrowth, cyclical, and value stocks has led to challenges for quality-focused investors, resulting in increased market concentration [1] Group 2: Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE:CARR) - Carrier Global Corporation, a provider of intelligent climate and energy solutions, saw a one-month return of -1.58% and a 52-week loss of 22.97%, closing at $53.50 per share with a market capitalization of $45.53 billion on December 24, 2025 [2] - Weaker US residential HVAC volumes led to a material guidance cut for Carrier Global Corporation, resulting in a sell-off in Q3 [3] - Despite a softer demand outlook, the company is viewed as attractively priced and positioned to benefit from improved end-market demand nearing cyclical lows [3] Group 3: Hedge Fund Interest - Carrier Global Corporation was held by 48 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a decrease from 53 in the previous quarter [4] - The potential of Carrier Global Corporation as an investment is acknowledged, but certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]