Group 1 - The individual has extensive experience in the energy industry, having worked for 22 years in various roles including engineering, planning, and financial analysis [1] - The investment strategy focuses on matching the S&P 500 return over the long term while achieving lower volatility and higher income [1] - The approach emphasizes long-term holding of positions unless there is a compelling reason to sell, seeking investment opportunities across all asset classes, market caps, sectors, and yields [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of CARR, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [2] - The article reflects the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2] - There is no business relationship with any company whose stock is discussed in the article, ensuring an independent perspective [2]

Market Overview - U.S. equities faced a challenging day on February 5, 2026, with significant sell-offs in technology stocks and negative job market reports impacting investor sentiment [1] - The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to close at 6,798.40, marking its sixth decline in seven trading days since reaching an all-time high [2] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6% to 22,540.59, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.2% to 48,908.72 [2] - Bitcoin prices fell below $64,000, reaching their lowest level since October 2024, further exacerbating the downturn [2] Major Market Movers and Corporate News - Alphabet (GOOGL) saw a decline of 0.8% despite stronger-than-expected sales, as investors were concerned about projected capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, estimated at $175 billion to $185 billion for 2026, nearly double the $91.45 billion spent in 2025 [3] - Qualcomm (QCOM) experienced an 8.5% drop due to a disappointing outlook, citing a tightening global memory shortage affecting the smartphone market [4] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell sharply by 17.3% on a weak outlook, contributing to the semiconductor sector's struggles [4] - Uber Technologies (UBER) declined by 5.2% after missing earnings expectations, while Amgen (AMGN) surged 8.2% on positive earnings results [5] - Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped 10.3% due to strong sales of its drugs, and McKesson (MCK) soared 16.5% after exceeding profit and revenue expectations [5] - Peloton Interactive (PTON) plummeted 28% after reporting weaker-than-expected results, while Estee Lauder (EL) and Snap (SNAP) retreated by 19% and 12%, respectively [6] Job Market Developments - Amazon (AMZN) announced plans to cut approximately 16,000 corporate roles, while UPS revealed 30,000 job cuts [7] - Dow (DOW) reduced its workforce by 4,500 jobs, with Home Depot (HD) and Nike (NKE) also making cuts [7] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 rose to 231,000, exceeding economists' estimates [9] - U.S. employers announced over 108,000 layoffs in January, the highest for that month since 2009, with job openings falling to 6.5 million in December, the lowest since 2020 [9] - The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% over the year in December, indicating persistent inflation despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Upcoming Market Events - Investors are awaiting the release of January U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings data on February 6, which will provide further insights into the labor market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Carrier Global's stock has declined approximately 2% over the past 12 months, indicating that despite a booming AI business, the company has struggled due to weak housing markets affecting its earnings [1]. Company Summary - Carrier Global, a manufacturer of air-conditioning systems, has not been able to leverage its strong AI business to offset challenges posed by a downturn in the housing market [1].

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2025, net sales were $21.7 billion, with an operating profit of $2.2 billion, and international operations accounted for approximately 52% of net sales[19] - New equipment sales comprised 72% of total net sales, while parts and service accounted for 28%[19] Strategic Initiatives - In 2023, the company initiated a portfolio transformation to establish itself as a pure-play leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, focusing on electrification and energy-efficient solutions[25] - The acquisition of the Viessmann Group's climate solutions business in January 2024 expanded the company's portfolio in sustainable building and energy management solutions[26] - A purchase agreement was signed to sell the Riello business for expected gross proceeds of approximately $430 million, with the transaction anticipated to close in the first half of 2026[27] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings with digitally-enabled lifecycle solutions, including the Abound cloud-based platform and the Lynx digital platform developed with AWS[30] - The company plans to invest over $4 billion to develop intelligent climate and energy solutions aimed at reducing environmental impacts by 2030[41] - The company aims to avoid more than 1 gigaton of customer greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon-neutral operations by 2030[41] Innovation and Intellectual Property - The company holds approximately 11,000 active patents and pending patent applications worldwide, protecting its research and development investments[36] Operations and Workforce - As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 47,000 employees worldwide, with 34% in the Americas, 36% in Europe, and 30% in Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa[44] - The company promotes learning and development through various programs, including technical training and leadership development reviews[46] - The company measures employee engagement through three annual Pulse surveys to assess sentiment related to company priorities and leadership practices[50] Safety and Health - The total recordable incident rate (TRIR) for 2025 was 0.35, and the lost time incident rate (LTIR) was 0.13, indicating a focus on employee health and safety[48] Financial Risks - The company is exposed to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices, which could impact financial results[253] - Substantially all of the company's long-term debt has fixed interest rates, minimizing the impact of market interest rate fluctuations on operations[257] - The company actively manages material currency exposures associated with purchases and sales at the legal entity level[254] - The company has no commodity hedge contracts in place as of December 31, 2025, exposing it to volatility in commodity prices[256] Market Demand - Demand for HVAC products is seasonal, with higher sales typically occurring in the second and third quarters due to increased air conditioning needs[39] Joint Ventures - The company operates 58 joint ventures, with 52% related to Climate Solutions Americas and 38% to Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, which are integral to its growth strategy[38]

Core Insights - Carrier Global Corporation is a key player in the intelligent climate and energy solutions industry, focusing on HVAC systems, refrigeration, and fire and security solutions [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.34, which was below the estimated $0.37 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.36, resulting in a 6.49% negative surprise [2][6] - The company's quarterly revenue was approximately $4.84 billion, missing the estimated $5.05 billion and the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.08%, and representing a decline from $5.15 billion in the same quarter last year [3][6] - Despite the quarterly challenges, Carrier's full-year 2025 sales were $21.75 billion, a 3% decrease from 2024, with organic sales down by 1% [4] Market Dynamics - The global commercial HVAC and aftermarket sectors experienced double-digit growth, with fourth-quarter orders increasing by nearly 50% due to significant data center wins [4] - Carrier has exceeded consensus revenue estimates in three of the last four quarters, indicating some resilience despite recent challenges [3] Valuation Metrics - Carrier's financial metrics include a P/E ratio of approximately 13.55, a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.43, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 2.92 [5] - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is notably higher at approximately 40.15, and the debt-to-equity ratio stands at about 0.85, indicating a moderate level of debt relative to equity [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, reported sales were $4.8 billion, adjusted operating profit was $455 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.34, reflecting a year-over-year decline largely due to lower volumes in higher-margin CSA residential and light commercial businesses, leading to a 9% decline in organic growth, partially offset by a 3% tailwind from foreign currency translation [15][16] - Total company orders were up over 15% in the quarter, driven by strength in CSA commercial, indicating continued strong demand for products in this market [16][21] - Free cash flow in Q4 was approximately $900 million, with full-year free cash flow of about $2.1 billion, aligning with expectations [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSA segment had a challenging quarter with organic sales down 17%, while commercial sales were up 12%, but this was offset by a nearly 40% decline in residential sales and a 20% decline in light commercial sales [17] - The CSE segment saw organic sales down 2%, with commercial up mid-single digits, offset by declines in residential and light commercial [18] - The transportation segment experienced a strong quarter with 10% organic sales growth, driven by exceptional growth in container business [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Climate Solutions Asia Pacific segment, strength in India and Australia was offset by weakness in residential and light commercial in China, leading to an overall 9% sales decline [19] - The residential heating market in Europe, particularly in Germany, continues to be challenging, with expectations of mid- to high-single-digit declines in the overall market [18][46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on outsized growth in products, aftermarket, and system offerings, with significant investments in data centers and HVAC solutions [4][6] - The company is positioned to outgrow the commercial HVAC market, with expectations of double-digit revenue growth, including a 50% increase in data centers [6] - The company plans to continue investing in technology differentiation and maintaining a strong balance sheet while returning cash to shareholders [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the short cycle residential and light commercial market softened more than expected in the second half of 2025, but they are positioned for stronger incrementals when these markets recover [3][14] - The company expects flat to low mid-single-digit organic growth for 2026, with continued double-digit growth in commercial and aftermarket globally, offset by expected softness in shorter cycle businesses [22][24] - Management emphasized the importance of operational excellence and controlling costs while preparing for a potential recovery in demand [26] Other Important Information - The company distributed $3.7 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [4] - The company expects to repurchase about $1.5 billion in shares in 2026 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the expected margins in CSA for Q1? - Management expects CSA margins in Q1 to be close to about 15%, with higher sales compared to Q4 2025 [32] Question: What is the full-year guidance for the CSA residential business? - Management anticipates industry units to be down 10%-15%, with their sales expected to be down high single digits year-over-year, benefiting from low single-digit pricing [44] Question: How are channel inventories in CSA residential? - Management reported that channel inventories are down about 32% year-over-year, aligning with their targets [53] Question: What are the implications of recent comments from NVIDIA regarding chiller demand? - Management stated that data centers will require a combination of liquid cooling and traditional cooling, and they are working closely with NVIDIA on future cooling requirements [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, reported sales were $4.8 billion, adjusted operating profit was $455 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.34, reflecting a year-over-year decline largely due to lower volumes in higher-margin CSA residential and light commercial businesses [16][17] - Total company organic sales were down about 1% for the full year, with a 9% decline in organic growth in Q4, partially offset by a 3% tailwind from foreign currency translation [16][18] - Free cash flow for Q4 was approximately $900 million, with full-year free cash flow at about $2.1 billion, aligning with expectations [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSA segment had a challenging quarter with organic sales down 17%, while commercial sales were up 12%, but this was offset by a nearly 40% decline in residential sales [18] - The CSE segment saw organic sales down 2%, with commercial up mid-single digits, but residential and light commercial faced mid-single-digit declines [20] - The transportation segment experienced a strong quarter with 10% organic sales growth, driven by exceptional growth in container business [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, overall sales were down about 20%, with residential and light commercial down approximately 30%, while commercial in China was down mid-single digits [21] - The residential heating market in Germany, the largest market, continues to be challenging, with expectations of mid- to high-single-digit declines in the overall industry [20][46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in high-return opportunities, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning cash to shareholders, with $3.7 billion distributed through buybacks and dividends [5] - The company aims for double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket globally, while expecting continued softness in shorter cycle businesses [23] - Strategic initiatives include expanding data center investments, with fourth quarter CSA data center orders up more than 5x, and a focus on technology differentiation [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the short cycle residential and light commercial market softened more than expected in the second half of 2025, but they are positioned for stronger incrementals when these markets recover [4][15] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations of flat to low mid-single-digit organic growth, with a focus on controlling costs and productivity [23][25] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to outgrow markets and deliver best-in-class solutions for customers [15] Other Important Information - The company expects to repurchase about $1.5 billion in shares and anticipates adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, reflecting high single-digit growth versus 2025 [25][26] - The company has implemented cost actions expected to deliver over $100 million in savings in 2026 [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the CSA margins and drivers? - Management expects CSA margins in Q1 to be close to about 15%, with a slight improvement from Q4 due to lower sales and a favorable tax rate [32] Question: What is the full-year guidance for the CSA residential business? - Management anticipates industry units to be down 10%-15%, with their sales expected to be down high single digits year-over-year, including a low single-digit benefit from pricing [41][43] Question: How are channel inventories in CSA residential? - Management reported that channel inventories are down about 32% year-over-year, aligning with targeted levels [52] Question: What are the expectations for the residential market in China? - Management expects RLC softness to continue in China, with residential sales down about 20% and overall sales in China down about 30% [87] Question: How is the company preparing for the cooling season? - Management emphasized operational agility and readiness to support demand if it picks up, given low inventory levels in the channel [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, reported sales were $4.8 billion, adjusted operating profit was $455 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.34, reflecting a year-over-year decline largely due to lower volumes in higher-margin CSA residential and light commercial businesses [15][16] - Total company organic sales were down about 1% for the full year, with a 9% decline in organic growth for Q4, partially offset by a 3% tailwind from foreign currency translation [15][16] - Free cash flow for Q4 was approximately $900 million, with full-year free cash flow at about $2.1 billion, aligning with expectations [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSA segment had a challenging quarter with organic sales down 17%, while commercial sales were up 12%, but this was offset by a nearly 40% decline in residential sales [17] - The CSE segment saw organic sales down 2%, with commercial up mid-single digits, but residential and light commercial experienced mid-single-digit declines [18] - The transportation segment achieved 10% organic sales growth, driven by strong container growth, while global truck and trailer remained flat [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, overall sales were down about 20%, with residential and light commercial down approximately 30%, while commercial in China was down mid-single digits [19] - The residential heating market in Germany, Carrier's largest market, continues to face challenges, with expectations of a decline in overall industry units [18][46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in high-return opportunities, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning cash to shareholders, with $3.7 billion distributed to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [4] - Carrier aims to outgrow the commercial HVAC market, with expectations of double-digit revenue growth in 2026, including a 50% increase in data center sales [6][22] - The company is also enhancing its product offerings, particularly in the data center and aftermarket segments, to drive future growth [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the short cycle residential and light commercial market softened more than expected in the second half of 2025, but they are positioned for stronger growth when these markets recover [3][14] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations of flat to low mid-single-digit organic growth, with continued double-digit growth in commercial and aftermarket segments [22][24] - Management emphasized the importance of operational excellence and readiness for potential demand increases as channel inventories are at low levels [101][102] Other Important Information - The company expects to repurchase about $1.5 billion in shares and anticipates adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, reflecting high single-digit growth compared to 2025 [24][25] - The company has implemented cost actions expected to deliver over $100 million in savings in 2026, which will help mitigate the impact of unfavorable business mix and inflation [4][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the expected margins in CSA for Q1? - Expected margins in CSA for Q1 are close to about 15%, with a slight improvement from Q4 due to higher sales and a lower effective tax rate [31][32] Question: What is the full-year guidance for the CSA residential business? - The company expects industry units to be down 10%-15%, with their sales down high single digits year-over-year, benefiting from low single-digit pricing realization [40][43] Question: How are channel inventories in CSA residential? - Channel inventories are down about 32% year-over-year, aligning with targeted levels [54] Question: What are the implications of recent comments from NVIDIA regarding chiller demand? - The company is working closely with NVIDIA on cooling requirements, indicating a need for both liquid and traditional cooling solutions [105] Question: How does the company plan to manage operational costs moving forward? - The company has taken significant cost-cutting measures and is leveraging AI to improve productivity while managing costs [120][121]

Core Viewpoint - Carrier Global reported quarterly earnings of $0.34 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.36 per share, and down from $0.54 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -6.49% [1] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $4.84 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.08%, and down from $5.15 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Carrier Global has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Carrier Global shares have increased approximately 20.3% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [3] Future Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.53 on $5.1 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $2.85 on $22.37 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Carrier Global was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Building Products - Air Conditioner and Heating industry is currently in the bottom 35% of the Zacks industries, which may impact the stock's performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that industry outlook can materially affect stock performance [5][8]

Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 5, 2026 2025 Q4 Earnings | February 5, 2026 2 2025 Summary | Sales | $21.7B Organic1 (1%) Y/Y | Q4 orders up >15% | | --- | --- | --- | | Adjusted operating | $3.3B | | | profit1 | (7%) Y/Y | | | Adjusted operating | 15.1% | year | | margin1 | (70bps) Y/Y | expected to be up ~50% | | Adjusted EPS1 | $2.59 | share gains | | | 1% Y/Y | | | | | expected to be up double-digits again in 2026 | | Free cash flow1 | $2.1B | | Highlights • Record CSA commercial orders, up >8 ...