Company Overview - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a projected EPS of $1, reflecting a +9.9% change, and revenues anticipated at $412.85 million, up 5.5% from the previous year [3][10] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for October 17, and the stock may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2][10] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.41% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment from analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a negative reading of -0.33% for Commerce, suggesting analysts have become bearish on the company's earnings prospects [10] - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [10] Historical Performance - Commerce has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having surpassed expectations in the last four quarters, including a +18.89% surprise in the most recent quarter [11][12] Industry Context - In the broader context of the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry, Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) is expected to report earnings of $0.48 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -12.7%, with revenues projected at $70.95 million, down 2.7% [16] - Old Second Bancorp's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.4% over the last 30 days, and it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -0.52%, indicating a challenging outlook for beating consensus estimates [17]

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is positioned for growth due to strong loan demand, high interest rates, and a solid balance sheet, but faces challenges from deteriorating asset quality and rising expenses [1] Group 1: Growth Drivers - CBSH's organic growth strategy has led to a revenue CAGR of 3.5% from 2018 to 2023, driven by strong loan balances and fee income [2] - Total revenues and net loans are projected to grow at CAGRs of 2.3% and 2.9% respectively by 2026 [4] - The company announced a balance sheet repositioning strategy in May 2024 to enhance net interest income by selling debt securities and reinvesting at higher yields [5][6] Group 2: Financial Performance - The net yield on interest-earning assets increased from 2.85% in 2022 to 3.16% in 2023, with projections of 3.40%, 3.42%, and 3.50% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - As of June 30, 2024, CBSH's total debt was $580.4 million, with cash and interest-earning deposits totaling $2.5 billion [6][7] Group 3: Challenges - Non-interest expenses have increased at a CAGR of 4.8% over the past five years, driven by higher salaries and benefits, and are expected to rise by 4.5% and 5.1% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [8][10] - CBSH has experienced deteriorating asset quality, with a significant rise in provisions for credit losses in 2022 and 2023, although provisions dipped in the first half of 2024 [11]

Investors interested in Finance stocks should always be looking to find the best-performing companies in the group. Has Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) been one of those stocks this year? By taking a look at the stock's year-to-date performance in comparison to its Finance peers, we might be able to answer that question. Commerce Bancshares is one of 860 individual stocks in the Finance sector. Collectively, these companies sit at #2 in the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different sector g ...

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades. While many investors like to look for momen ...

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is positioned for growth due to decent loan demand, high interest rates, and a balance sheet repositioning strategy, supported by solid liquidity and non-interest income growth [1] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBSH's earnings has increased slightly for 2024 and 2025 to $3.94 and $3.89, respectively [1] - Year-to-date, CBSH shares have increased by 16.2%, outperforming the industry growth of 9.2% [2] - Earnings growth for CBSH has been 8.9% over the past three to five years, driven by organic growth strategies and strong risk management [4] - Projections indicate earnings growth of 4.8%, 1%, and 6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Revenue and Growth - CBSH's total revenues have experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% from 2018 to 2023, continuing into the first half of 2024 [5] - Revenue growth is supported by increased loan demand and fee income, although rising funding costs may have some impact [5] - Estimates for total revenue growth are 3.6%, 1.4%, and 1.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Balance Sheet Strength - As of June 30, 2024, CBSH had total cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion and total debt of $580.4 million [7] - The company holds investment grade ratings of A- with a stable outlook from Standard & Poor's, indicating a solid liquidity position [7] Capital Distribution - CBSH has a strong history of capital distributions, including a 5% stock dividend paid consistently over the past 25 years [8] - The company has been paying quarterly cash dividends and has a share repurchase plan, with approximately 4.3 million shares remaining available under authorization as of June 30, 2024 [8] - The efficient capital distributions are expected to enhance shareholder value due to the company's earnings strength and liquidity position [9] Return on Equity - CBSH's trailing 12-month Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 16.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.9%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' funds [9]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 ________________________________________________________ For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------ ...

The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this bank holding company, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- has this insight at its core. Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions Current-Year Estimate Revisions Favorable Zacks Rank Commerce shares have added 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the momentum investing strategy and highlights Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) as a promising stock based on its recent performance and momentum style score. Group 1: Company Performance - CBSH shares have increased by 5.65% over the past week, while the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry has risen by 7.76% during the same period [4] - Over the last month, CBSH's price change is 18.82%, outperforming the industry's 17.01% [4] - CBSH has seen a 14.56% increase over the past quarter and a 26.9% gain in the last year, compared to the S&P 500's 11.02% and 23.25% respectively [13] Group 2: Momentum Style Score - CBSH currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and has a Momentum Score of B, indicating strong potential for near-term gains [6] - The Zacks Momentum Style Score incorporates trends in estimate revisions alongside price changes, which have been favorable for CBSH recently [5][8] - In the past two months, five earnings estimates for CBSH have been revised upwards, increasing the consensus estimate from $3.53 to $3.61 [11] Group 3: Trading Volume and Market Position - CBSH's average 20-day trading volume is 608,550 shares, which is considered a bullish sign when combined with rising stock prices [10] - The article emphasizes the importance of comparing CBSH's short-term price activity to its industry to identify top-performing companies [9]

Commerce Bancshares saw its net income increase 9% year over year, driven in part by expanding net interest margin. Kemper added that the bank's net interest margin expansion of 22 basis points was due to a repositioning of some of its available for sale securities, asset repricing and inflation income on treasury bonds. "Credit quality across our entire loan portfolio remains excellent, with non-accrual loans at just 11 basis points of total loans," Kemper said. "Our earnings remained strong this quarter, ...

Exhibit 99.1 Second Quarter 2024 Financial Highlights: For the six months ended June 30, 2024, earnings per share totaled $1.93, compared to $1.88 for the first six months of 2023. Net income amounted to $252.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $247.2 million in the comparable period last year. For the year to date, the return on average assets was 1.67%, and the return on average equity was 16.98%. Kemper added, "We are pleased to announce that the Company contributed $5.0 million ...