Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares reported second-quarter total revenue of $445.8 million, exceeding expectations of $435.6 million [1] Financial Performance - Second-quarter provision for loan losses was $5.6 million, compared to an estimate of $15 million [1] - Earnings per share for the second quarter were $1.14 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a history of positive earnings surprises [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Commerce Bancshares achieved earnings of $0.98 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.93 per share, resulting in a surprise of 5.38% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $1.01 per share against an expected $0.94 per share, delivering a surprise of 7.45% [2]. Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Commerce Bancshares, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating potential for an earnings beat [5][8]. - The current Earnings ESP for Commerce is +1.79%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8]. Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7].

Core Insights - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, reflecting a decline of 4.7% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 3.8% to $430.36 million [1] Earnings Estimates - There has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1][2] - The consensus estimate for the 'Efficiency Ratio' is 55.9%, slightly improved from 56.0% in the same quarter last year [4] - Analysts predict a 'Net Interest Margin' of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous year [4] Key Financial Metrics - 'Average total interest earning assets' are estimated at $30.64 billion, up from $30.02 billion year-over-year [5] - The estimated 'Book value per share' is $26.85, compared to $24.48 a year ago [5] - The 'Tier I risk-based capital ratio' is expected to be 17.0%, an increase from 16.2% in the previous year [6] - The 'Total risk-based capital ratio' is projected at 17.8%, compared to 17.0% last year [6] Loan and Income Projections - 'Non-accrual loans' are expected to be $21.76 million, up from $19.30 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The forecast for 'Total Non-Interest Income' is $157.57 million, compared to $152.24 million a year ago [8] - 'Fully-taxable equivalent net interest income' is projected to reach $275.75 million, up from $264.58 million last year [8] - 'Trust fees' are expected to be $55.69 million, compared to $52.29 million in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Bank card transaction fees' are forecasted at $47.42 million, slightly down from $47.48 million last year [9] Stock Performance - Commerce shares have increased by 6.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 4.1% increase [9]

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Commerce for the fiscal year ending December 2025 is projected at $4.08 per share, remaining unchanged from the previous year [9]. - Over the past three months, analysts have increased their earnings estimates for Commerce by 3.7% [9]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking EPS estimates from sell-side analysts [2]. - The system classifies stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Commerce in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for near-term price increases due to favorable earnings estimate revisions [11]. Market Dynamics - Changes in earnings estimates are strongly correlated with stock price movements, influenced by institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [5][6]. - The Zacks rating system aims to provide a balanced perspective, maintaining an equal proportion of "buy" and "sell" ratings across its universe of over 4,000 stocks [10].

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) has agreed to acquire FineMark Holdings in an all-stock transaction valued at $585 million, expected to close on January 1, 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals [2][8]. Group 1: Deal Overview - The acquisition will involve FineMark shareholders receiving 0.690 shares of CBSH common stock for each FineMark share, valuing the deal at $41.87 per share based on CBSH's closing price on June 13, 2025 [4]. - FineMark, founded in 2007, operates 13 banking offices across Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina, with assets of $4 billion, deposits of $3.1 billion, and loans of $2.6 billion as of March 31, 2025 [3][2]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The transaction is projected to be 6% accretive to CBSH's 2026 GAAP earnings, with anticipated cost savings of 15% on FineMark's non-interest expenses [4][8]. - The deal is expected to result in a tangible book value per share dilution of 2.2%, with an earn-back period of 1.6 years, and will incur one-time, pre-tax expenses of $57 million [5][4]. Group 3: Management Insights - CBSH's President and CEO, John Kemper, emphasized the strategic significance of the acquisition, highlighting the shared values and client-centric approach between the two companies [6]. - FineMark's CEO, Joseph R. Catti, expressed enthusiasm about the partnership, noting the alignment in mission and culture, which will facilitate continued growth [6]. Group 4: Market Context - Over the past year, CBSH shares have increased by 13.3%, which is below the industry's growth of 23.5% [9]. - CBSH currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [10].

Summary of Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) M&A Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Commerce Bancshares Inc. - **Acquired Company**: Finemark Holdings Inc. (holding company of Finemark National Bank and Trust) - **Industry**: Banking and Wealth Management Core Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Announcement**: Commerce Bancshares announced the acquisition of Finemark Holdings, a private bank with nearly $8 billion in assets under management and $4 billion in banking assets, aiming to expand its presence in high-growth markets like Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina [5][6][10]. 2. **Wealth Management Focus**: The acquisition aligns with Commerce's strategy to enhance its wealth management platform, as Finemark has a strong non-interest revenue model, with 43% of its total revenue coming from non-interest sources [8][9]. 3. **Credit Quality**: Finemark has a strong credit history with only 13 basis points of cumulative net charge-offs over the last ten years, indicating a conservative approach to lending [9]. 4. **Combined Assets**: Post-acquisition, the combined entities will manage over $84 billion in total wealth assets, making it the sixteenth largest bank-managed trust company in the U.S. [10]. 5. **Leadership Transition**: Joseph Caddy, Chairman and CEO of Finemark, will become Chairman of Commerce Trust, ensuring continuity and leveraging his leadership experience [10]. 6. **Financial Metrics**: The deal is structured as a 100% stock transaction valued at approximately $585 million, with an EPS accretion of 6% expected once cost savings are realized [12][13]. 7. **Cost Savings and Integration**: Expected pre-tax cost savings of $15 million represent 15% of Finemark's non-interest expenses, with a focus on low integration risk due to similar business models [14][15]. 8. **Future Growth Potential**: The acquisition is expected to enhance Commerce's ability to drive sustainable growth, particularly in wealth management and private banking [18]. Additional Important Content 1. **Long-term Relationship**: The relationship with Finemark has been built over five years, indicating a strategic and measured approach to the acquisition [23][24]. 2. **Market Expansion**: The acquisition allows Commerce to solidify its presence in Florida and expand into Arizona and South Carolina, which are identified as attractive growth markets [8][51]. 3. **Asset Sensitivity**: The loan portfolio composition is expected to be similar to Commerce's, with asset repricing anticipated to enhance margins [25][26]. 4. **M&A Strategy**: While this is the first bank deal since 2013, Commerce maintains that M&A is part of its long-term strategy, focusing on commercial and wealth-focused banks [30][32]. 5. **Dividend and Buyback Plans**: Commerce plans to maintain its dividend policy and may resume stock buybacks in the second half of the year, despite the acquisition [54][55]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the acquisition of Finemark Holdings by Commerce Bancshares, highlighting the strategic rationale, financial implications, and future growth opportunities.

Transaction Overview - Commerce Bancshares, Inc(CBSH) will acquire FineMark Holdings, Inc(FineMark) to expand its presence in high-growth markets and leverage its wealth platform[1] - The transaction value is $585.4 million[28] - The consideration is 100% stock, with a fixed exchange ratio of 0.690x shares of CBSH common stock for each share of FNBT[28] - FineMark has approximately $8 billion in Assets Under Administration (AUA) and $4 billion in banking assets[9] Financial Impact - The deal is expected to be approximately 6% accretive to 2026 consensus GAAP earnings[9] - Tangible book value per share (TBVPS) earnback is projected at 1.6 years[9] - The pro forma CET1 ratio is expected to be around 17% after the transaction[9] - Cost savings are estimated at 15%[9] FineMark Overview - FineMark has $7.7 billion in total trust assets under administration[15] - Total deposits for FineMark are $3.1 billion[15] - Total loans amount to $2.6 billion[15] - FineMark's CET1 ratio stands at 16%[15]

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is positioned for top-line growth due to strong loan demand and high interest rates, although concerns about weak asset quality and elevated expenses persist [1] Group 1: Growth Drivers - Solid loan balances have recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2019 to 2024, contributing to revenue growth despite a decline in 2020, with a five-year CAGR of 4.2% [2] - Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% by 2027, with capital market fees projected to grow at 5.1% and loan fees and sales at 5% [3] Group 2: Interest Rates and Balance Sheet Strategy - The Federal Reserve's steady interest rates will support CBSH's net yield on interest-earning assets, which expanded to 3.47% in 2024 from 3.16% in 2023 and is expected to reach 3.75% by 2027 [4][5] - CBSH's balance sheet repositioning strategy, initiated in May 2024, involves selling debt securities and reinvesting proceeds at higher yields, which is anticipated to boost growth [4] Group 3: Capital and Liquidity Position - As of March 31, 2025, CBSH had total debt of $624.7 million and cash and due from banks totaling $3.3 billion, indicating strong earnings capacity to meet debt obligations [6] - CBSH has a history of consistent capital distribution, including a 5% stock dividend for over 25 years and a share repurchase program, enhancing shareholder value [7] Group 4: Near-Term Challenges - Asset quality has been deteriorating, with a significant rise in provisions for credit losses recorded in 2022 and 2023, and total net loan charge-offs (NCOs) showing a CAGR of 2.8% over four years ending in 2024 [8][9] - Non-interest expenses have increased at a CAGR of 4.4% over the last five years, primarily due to higher salaries and benefits, and are expected to continue rising amid technology investments and inflationary pressures [11]

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, particularly due to institutional investors adjusting their valuations based on these estimates [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for Commerce suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, which could lead to higher stock prices as investors respond positively [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Commerce is expected to earn $4.08 per share, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Commerce has risen by 3.6%, indicating a trend of increasing analyst estimates [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, with only the top 20% of stocks receiving a 'Strong Buy' or 'Buy' rating, highlighting their potential for market-beating returns [9][10]. - The upgrade of Commerce to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a favorable outlook for its stock price in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) shares have increased by approximately 9.4% since the last earnings report, but this performance is below that of the S&P 500 [1] Group 1: Earnings Report and Market Reaction - The recent earnings report indicates that estimates for Commerce Bancshares have trended upward over the past month, with a consensus estimate shift of 6.65% [2] - Investors and analysts are closely monitoring whether the positive trend will continue leading up to the next earnings release [1] Group 2: VGM Scores and Investment Strategy - Commerce Bancshares has a subpar Growth Score of D, a Momentum Score of C, and a Value Score of C, placing it in the middle 20% for the value investment strategy [3] - The overall aggregate VGM Score for the stock is D, which is relevant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upward trend in estimates and the magnitude of revisions suggest a promising outlook for Commerce Bancshares, leading to a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4] - An above-average return is expected from the stock in the coming months [4]