Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has consistently beaten earnings estimates and is well-positioned for future earnings surprises, particularly in its upcoming quarterly report [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Commerce Bancshares reported earnings of $1.01 per share, exceeding the expected $0.94 per share, resulting in a surprise of 7.45% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported $1.07 per share against an expectation of $1 per share, achieving a surprise of 7% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Commerce, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5][8]. - The current Earnings ESP for Commerce is +0.54%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [8]. Zacks Rank and Success Rate - Commerce Bancshares holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, indicates a high probability of beating consensus estimates, with historical data showing nearly 70% success in such cases [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) due to higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.93 per share, reflecting an 8.1% increase year-over-year, and revenues of $415.93 million, up 4.5% from the previous year [3]. - A positive earnings surprise could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss may result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.83% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.54%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. - The company has a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - Commerce Bancshares has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates, achieving this in the last four quarters [13]. - In the last reported quarter, the company exceeded expectations by delivering earnings of $1.01 per share against an expected $0.94, resulting in a surprise of +7.45% [12]. Conclusion - While the company appears to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, other factors should also be considered before making investment decisions [16].

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which reflects EPS estimates from sell-side analysts for the current and following years, highlighting the importance of earnings revisions in stock valuation [1][4]. - A strong correlation exists between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, with institutional investors using these estimates to determine fair value [4][6]. Recent Earnings Estimate Revisions - Commerce is projected to earn $3.94 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.8% [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Commerce has risen by 2.5%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Commerce to a Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock prices in the near term [10].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the Commercial, Consumer, and Wealth segments contributed 47%, 31%, and 22% of total segment pre-tax income, respectively[19]. - The Company's net interest income represented 63% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024[52]. - The Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates from nearly zero at the start of 2022 to between 5.25% and 5.50% by the end of July 2023, impacting the Company's financial performance[53]. - A significant reduction in the Company's deposits could materially impact its liquidity and ability to fund loans[56]. - The economic conditions in the U.S. are expected to remain uncertain, with inflationary pressures easing but concerns around tax reform and tariffs persisting[46]. Regulatory Compliance - The Company maintains regulatory capital ratios above the "well-capitalized" standards, with a Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 8%, a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 6.5%, and a total capital ratio of at least 10%[36]. - The Company is subject to the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) to help combat money laundering and other crimes, with compliance monitored by the Federal Reserve[25]. - The Company is regulated under the Dodd-Frank Act, which established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to supervise certain financial services companies[28]. - The Dodd-Frank Act required stress-testing for certain financial services companies, but the Company is not required to prepare stress testing as specified by the Dodd-Frank Act due to its asset size[29][37]. - The Federal Reserve Board may prohibit the payment of cash dividends if actions constitute unsafe or unsound practices, with dividends limited to the net profit of the current year combined with retained net profits of the preceding two years[33]. Risk Management - The Company has exposure to credit risk due to its transactions with various financial institutions, which could lead to liquidity problems[54]. - The Company’s allowance for credit losses on loans reflects management's estimate of expected credit losses, which may be insufficient if future credit losses increase[62]. - The volatility of the Company's provision for credit losses may change from year to year due to macroeconomic variables, which could materially impact earnings[63]. - The Company may experience adverse effects on its operations and financial results due to public health threats or outbreaks of communicable diseases[71]. - The Company’s efforts to mitigate risks associated with climate change may not effectively protect it from new laws and regulations or changes in consumer behavior[73]. Operational Challenges - The Company is subject to extensive federal and state regulation, which affects its lending practices and capital structure[48]. - The Company faces competition from larger national banks that may lower fees to gain market share, potentially reducing the Company's revenues[47]. - The Company must continue to invest in its products and delivery systems to remain competitive in the financial services industry[47]. - The Company relies on third-party vendors for essential services, exposing it to risks related to vendor performance and operational errors[61]. - The Company may face significant operational risks after system conversions due to rapid technological changes in the financial services industry[69]. - The Company is exposed to potential losses related to security breaches at unaffiliated retailers, which could include costs for card reissuance and losses from fraudulent transactions[61]. Investment and Capital - The Company’s capital ratios are well in excess of the minimum ratios required by Basel III, which includes a minimum common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 4.5%[35]. - The Company's deposit insurance expense was $33.2 million in 2023, compared to $10.6 million in 2022, and was $16.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[32]. - The FDIC raised the minimum designated reserve ratio from 1.15% to 1.35% of estimated insured deposits, affecting deposit insurance assessments[31]. - The fair value of the Company's available for sale debt securities included a net unrealized loss of $991 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to rising interest rates during 2022 and 2023[65]. - The Company relies on dividends from its subsidiary bank for most of its revenue, which are limited by federal and state regulations[57].

Group 1 - Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) has seen a 1.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days and offers a dividend yield of 3.3%, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.7% [1] - Sony Group Corporation (SONY) has experienced a 3.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings in the last 60 days, with a dividend yield of 1.9%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [2] - Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) has reported a 6.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days and has a dividend yield of 2.1%, also above the industry average of 0.0% [2][3]

Core Insights - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies and confidence [1] - The Zacks Style Scores are designed to help investors select stocks with the highest potential to outperform the market in the short term [2] Zacks Style Scores Overview - The Style Scores categorize stocks into four types: Value Score, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and VGM Score, each focusing on different investment strategies [3][4][5][6] - Value Score identifies undervalued stocks using financial ratios [3] - Growth Score assesses a company's future growth potential based on earnings and sales [4] - Momentum Score tracks price trends to capitalize on upward or downward movements [5] - VGM Score combines all three styles to provide a comprehensive evaluation of stocks [6] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to help investors build successful portfolios [7] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically outperformed the S&P 500, with an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988 [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B for optimal returns [9] Stock Highlight: Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) - Commerce Bancshares Inc. is a major bank holding company in Missouri, with operations across several states [11] - CBSH holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a VGM Score of B, indicating strong investment potential [11] - The stock has a Momentum Style Score of A, with a 1.4% increase in share price over the past four weeks [12] - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 have increased the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.15 to $3.92 per share, with an average earnings surprise of 10.2% [12]

Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies, including daily updates, research reports, and stock screens [1][2] - The Zacks Style Scores serve as complementary indicators to the Zacks Rank, helping investors identify stocks with high potential for market outperformance [2][7] Zacks Style Scores Overview - Stocks are rated based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with scores ranging from A to F, where A indicates the highest potential for outperformance [3] - The Style Scores are categorized into four types: Value Score, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and VGM Score, each focusing on different investment strategies [3][4][5][6] Value Score - The Value Style Score identifies undervalued stocks by analyzing financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] Growth Score - The Growth Style Score evaluates stocks based on projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow to find those with sustainable growth potential [4] Momentum Score - The Momentum Style Score assesses stocks based on price trends and earnings estimate changes, helping investors identify favorable buying opportunities [5] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive indicator for investors who utilize multiple investment strategies [6] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank, based on earnings estimate revisions, has shown strong performance, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks averaging a +25.41% annual return since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8] Stock Selection Strategy - Investors are encouraged to select stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B to maximize potential returns [10] - The direction of earnings estimate revisions is crucial; stocks with lower ranks but high Style Scores may still face price declines [11] Company Spotlight: Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) - Commerce Bancshares Inc. is a major bank holding company in Missouri, with operations across several states [12] - CBSH holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B, with a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong recent performance [12][13] - The stock has seen a 6.1% increase over the past four weeks, and analysts have revised earnings estimates upwards, suggesting positive momentum [13]

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) and Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) indicates that HBAN is more attractive to value investors based on various financial metrics and rankings [1][3]. Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - Huntington Bancshares has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), while Commerce Bancshares has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a stronger earnings outlook for HBAN [3]. - The Zacks Rank system emphasizes companies with positive earnings estimate revisions, indicating that HBAN is likely experiencing a more favorable earnings outlook [3]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - HBAN has a forward P/E ratio of 12.08, significantly lower than CBSH's forward P/E of 17.58, indicating that HBAN may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for HBAN is 1.39, while CBSH's PEG ratio is 3.64, further suggesting that HBAN offers better value considering its expected EPS growth rate [5]. - HBAN's P/B ratio stands at 1.38 compared to CBSH's P/B of 2.52, reinforcing the notion that HBAN is a more attractive investment based on valuation metrics [6]. Group 3: Overall Value Grade - Based on the analysis of various valuation metrics, HBAN holds a Value grade of B, while CBSH has a Value grade of C, indicating that HBAN is the superior value option at this time [6].

Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) reported fourth-quarter 2024 earnings per share of $1.01, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 94 cents. The bottom line also jumped 27.8% from the prior-year quarter.See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.Results benefited from a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income. Also, stable adjusted expenses posed a tailwind. However, a substantial jump in provisions hurt the results to some extent.Net income attributable to ...

Wealth Management Growth - Commerce Bancshares grew its wealth management business in Q4 through new initiatives targeting the market, contributing to revenue diversification [1] - The bank aims to expand its wealth management business by leveraging its private banking loan and deposit system, offering specialized products and services, and entering new concentrated wealth markets through acquisitions [2] - Strategies include expanding referrals with affluent households, enhancing sales and service processes, team development, and investing in digital tools for a seamless client experience [3] - Commerce Trust Company provides a full-service wealth management approach for high-net-worth individuals [4] Financial Performance - Net income in Q4 2023 was $136.1 million, up from $109.2 million YoY but slightly down from $138 million in the previous quarter [6] - Quarterly net interest income grew due to deposit and investment securities growth [7] - Non-interest income accounted for 36.8% of total revenue, with trust fees growing 14.6% YoY [7] Assets and Market Position - Assets under administration increased to $74.8 billion from $68.9 billion YoY [4] - The bank moved from 20th to 19th largest among bank-managed trust companies in terms of assets under management [5] Operational Footprint - The bank operates 142 branches and 253 ATMs across seven states [5] - Wealth management offices are located in Dallas, Houston, and Naples, Florida, outside its core banking footprint [5]