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Carnival (CCL) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-09-30 18:01
Financial Data and Key Metrics - Revenue hit an all-time high of almost $8 billion, up $1 billion from last year's record levels [6] - Record EBITDA exceeded $2.8 billion, up $600 million over last year and $160 million over guidance [6] - Net income increased by over 60% compared to the prior year, achieving double-digit ROIC [6] - Full-year EBITDA guidance raised to $6 billion, $600 million above the prior peak and $400 million above original guidance [7] - ROIC expected to end the year at 10.5%, 1.5 points better than original guidance and almost double last year's ending point [7] - Customer deposits reached a record $7 billion in Q3, driven by strong bookings for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [9] Business Line Performance - High-margin same-ship yield growth across all major brands, not driven by capacity growth [6] - Onboard spending levels increased, with year-over-year improvement in onboard per diems accelerating [9] - All core deployments for 2025 are at higher prices than the prior year, with every brand well booked at higher pricing [8] - Nearly half of 2025 is already booked, with a widening price advantage compared to last year [8] - Record booking volumes for 2026 achieved in the last three months [9] Market Performance - European brands saw outsized growth in occupancy, up 5 percentage points compared to Q3 2023 [16] - Strong demand in both North America and Europe, with higher occupancy and pricing across all regions [24] - Web visits up over 40% versus 2019, paid search up more than 60%, and natural search up over 70% [12] - New-to-cruise and repeat guests both increased by double-digit percentages over last year [12] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - Focus on high-margin same-ship yield growth and operational efficiency [6][13] - Introduction of new ships like Sun Princess and Star Princess, along with modernization programs like AIDA evolution [9][10] - Development of new destinations like Celebration Key and Half Moon Cay, expected to reduce fuel costs and environmental footprint [10][11] - Marketing efforts increased in Q4, with a focus on driving demand well in excess of capacity growth [11][12] - Limited new ship orders through 2028, with only three ships scheduled for delivery over the next four years [13] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Strong demand and pricing trends expected to continue into 2025 and 2026 [8][9] - Focus on debt reduction and achieving investment-grade metrics, with a clear path to further debt paydown [13][22] - Expectation of substantial free cash flow driven by operational execution and low newbuild order book [22] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining momentum and achieving SEA Change targets [14][55] Other Important Information - Hurricane Helene had an insignificant financial impact on the company, with costs in the millions [81] - The company is not pursuing the Chinese market at this time, focusing instead on other regions like Japan and Taiwan [77] - The company is well-positioned to handle potential disruptions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, due to its mobile fleet and strong source markets [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Momentum into 2025 and 2026 - The company is seeing broad-based strength across all regions, with higher occupancy and pricing for 2025 [24] - The booking curve has been pulled forward, allowing the company to take price [24] Question: Capital Priorities and Debt Reduction - The company's top priority is debt reduction, with a goal of achieving investment-grade metrics by the end of 2026 [26] Question: Fourth Quarter Yield Guidance - No significant change in yield guidance for Q4, with strong demand expected to continue [29] Question: Booking Window and Demand for Celebration Key - The company is managing the booking curve to maximize revenue, with some brands pulling back to avoid leaving money on the table [31] - Celebration Key is expected to provide a premium in 2026, with 19 ships scheduled to visit the destination [31] Question: Start of 2025 and Expense Shifts - The company is off to a better start for 2025 compared to 2024, with higher occupancy and pricing [37] - Some one-time cost savings, including pension credits, contributed to the improved cost guidance [38] Question: Cost Savings and Margin Opportunities - Cost savings were driven by hundreds of small items across the board, including crew travel savings, port savings, and sourcing savings [40] Question: Streamlining the Portfolio - The company is open to further streamlining the portfolio but feels good about its current position heading into 2025 [42] Question: Cost Inflation and Dry-Dock Impact - Inflation remains a factor, but the company is working on cost-saving opportunities to offset it [45] - Dry-dock days are expected to increase by 17% in 2025, impacting year-over-year cost comparisons [21] Question: Middle East Conflict Impact - The company's business is not contingent on the Middle East, as it is not a major source market [48] Question: Dry-Dock Schedule and Half Moon Cay Development - Detailed dry-dock schedules for 2025 are available upon request [51] - Half Moon Cay will focus on enhancing its natural beauty, with no plans for a water park [52] Question: SEA Change Progress and Land-Based Leisure Demand - The company is ahead of schedule on SEA Change targets, with strong performance in yields and costs [55] - The company sees a remarkable value proposition compared to land-based alternatives, driving demand [58] Question: New-to-Cruise and Younger Demographics - New-to-cruise guests increased by 17% year-over-year, driven by better advertising and trade efforts [112] - The company is attracting younger demographics, with Carnival Cruise Line's average guest age at 41 [65] Question: Celebration Key Halo Effect - Celebration Key is already seeing a premium in bookings, with strong demand expected to increase once the destination opens [67] Question: Consumer Behavior and Trade-Down Dynamics - The company is not seeing any trade-down dynamics, with demand broad-based across all brands [73] Question: Chinese Consumer and Asia Pacific Market - The company is not pursuing the Chinese market at this time, focusing on other regions like Japan and Taiwan [77] Question: Occupancy and Yield Opportunities - There is still room for occupancy improvement, but the focus remains on driving price [84] Question: Fuel Costs and Shore Power - Fuel costs are not impacted by shore power, as it is included in port expenses [86] Question: Sister Ship Orders and Debt Tranches - The company has no plans to order additional ships before 2029, focusing on debt reduction instead [88] - Debt reduction efforts are focused on high-cost debt and managing maturity towers [91] Question: Competitor Encroachment in Galveston - The company is not concerned about competitor encroachment, as it represents a small part of the overall cruise market [94] Question: Fourth Quarter Yield and Demand Hiccups - The company expects strong demand to continue in Q4, with no significant changes to yield guidance [96] Question: Investor Day and Key Topics - The upcoming investor day will focus on progress on SEA Change, Celebration Key, and cost-saving opportunities [100] Question: Demand Drivers and Advertising Spend - The company is not relying on pent-up demand, with strong demand driven by better commercial execution [105] - Advertising spend is focused on both short-term and long-term bookings, with no immediate plans to reduce it [109] Question: New-to-Cruise Acceleration - New-to-cruise growth was driven by better advertising, trade efforts, and strong performance in Alaska [113]
Carnival (CCL) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-09-30 16:00
For the quarter ended August 2024, Carnival (CCL) reported revenue of $7.9 billion, up 15.2% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.27, compared to $0.86 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.04% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.81 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.17, the EPS surprise was +8.55%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectati ...
Carnival Stock Cruises to Another Beat-and-Raise Performance
The Motley Fool· 2024-09-30 15:45
The largest cruise line operator tops its earlier guidance and raises the bar.The coast is clear for Carnival (CCL -3.45%) (CUK -3.85%) investors who were holding out for fresh financials to kick off the new trading week. The world's largest cruise line operator delivered a solid report for its fiscal third-quarter results on Monday morning, topping expectations on both ends of the income statement.The strong performance isn't really a surprise. A record $8.3 billion in customer deposits at the end of May a ...
Carnival (CCL) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2024-09-30 15:31
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended August 31, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission file number: 001-9610 Commission file number: 001-15136 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------ ...
Carnival (CCL) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-09-30 15:25
Carnival (CCL) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.86 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 8.55%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this cruise operator would post a loss of $0.01 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.11, delivering a surprise of 1,200%.Over the last four quarters, the company has ...
Carnival (CCL) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2024-09-30 13:17
Financial Performance - Third quarter net income was $1.7 billion, a 60% increase compared to 2023, and adjusted net income outperformed June guidance by $170 million[2] - Record operating income of $2.2 billion exceeded 2023 levels by $554 million, a 34% increase[4] - Net income for Q3 2024 reached $1.735 billion, significantly higher than $1.074 billion in Q3 2023, a 61.5% growth[26] - Operating income for Q3 2024 was $2.178 billion, compared to $1.624 billion in Q3 2023, a 34.1% rise[26] - Net income increased from $1.074 billion in August 2023 to $1.735 billion in August 2024[31] - Adjusted EBITDA increased from $2.221 billion in August 2023 to $2.822 billion in August 2024[31] Revenue Growth - Third quarter revenues reached an all-time high of $7.9 billion, up $1.0 billion compared to the prior year[2] - Passenger ticket revenue increased to $5.239 billion in Q3 2024, up from $4.546 billion in Q3 2023, representing a 15.2% growth[26] - Onboard and other revenue rose to $2.657 billion in Q3 2024, compared to $2.308 billion in Q3 2023, a 15.1% increase[26] - Total revenues for the nine months ended August 31, 2024, were $19.083 billion, up from $16.197 billion in the same period in 2023, a 17.8% increase[26] Cost Management - Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (in constant currency) decreased compared to 2023 and were significantly better than June guidance[4] - Adjusted cruise costs per ALBD for the three months ended August 31, 2024, were $124.44, a 0.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023[36] - Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD for the three months ended August 31, 2024, were $103.97, a 0.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023[36] - Adjusted cruise costs for the nine months ended August 31, 2024, were $9,430 million, compared to $8,817 million in the same period in 2023[36] - Adjusted cruise costs per ALBD for the nine months ended August 31, 2024, were $131.56, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023[36] - Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD for the nine months ended August 31, 2024, were $110.00, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023[36] Debt and Liquidity - The company prepaid $625 million of debt in Q3 2024, bringing total prepayments to $7.3 billion since the beginning of 2023[9] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1.522 billion as of August 31, 2024, from $2.415 billion as of November 30, 2023[27] - Long-term debt reduced to $26.642 billion as of August 31, 2024, from $28.483 billion as of November 30, 2023[27] - Liquidity decreased from $5.392 billion in November 2023 to $4.519 billion in August 2024[28] - Debt decreased from $30.572 billion in November 2023 to $28.856 billion in August 2024[28] - Cash from operations decreased from $1.834 billion in August 2023 to $1.205 billion in August 2024[32] Customer Deposits and Bookings - Total customer deposits reached a third quarter record of $6.8 billion, surpassing the previous third quarter record of $6.3 billion as of August 31, 2023[4] - Customer deposits increased to $6.436 billion as of August 31, 2024, up from $6.072 billion as of November 30, 2023[27] - Cumulative advanced bookings for full year 2025 are above the previous 2024 record with prices (in constant currency) ahead of prior year[6] Operational Metrics - Passenger cruise days (PCDs) increased from 25.8 million in August 2023 to 28.1 million in August 2024[29] - Occupancy percentage increased from 109% in August 2023 to 112% in August 2024[29] - Passengers carried increased from 3.6 million in August 2023 to 3.9 million in August 2024[29] - ALBDs (Available Lower Berth Days) for the three months ended August 31, 2024, were 25.2 million, compared to 23.7 million in the same period in 2023[36] - ALBDs for the nine months ended August 31, 2024, were 71.7 million, compared to 68.1 million in the same period in 2023[36] Earnings and Margins - Earnings per share (diluted) for Q3 2024 were $1.26, up from $0.79 in Q3 2023, a 59.5% increase[26] - Gross margin per diems increased by 16% from $90.45 in August 2023 to $104.49 in August 2024[34] - Net yields increased by 8.7% from $215.22 in August 2023 to $233.87 in August 2024[34] Fuel Expenses - Fuel expenses rose to $515 million in Q3 2024, compared to $468 million in Q3 2023, a 10% increase[26] Non-GAAP Financial Measures - Adjusted EBITDA for full year 2024 is expected to be approximately $6.0 billion, up over 40% compared to 2023 and better than June guidance by nearly $200 million[2][7] - Adjusted return on invested capital ("ROIC") for full year 2024 is expected to be approximately 10.5%, an improvement of approximately 5.0 percentage points compared to 2023[7] - Adjusted free cash flow for 2024 is expected to be over $3.0 billion[9] - The company uses non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow to assess performance and liquidity[37] - Constant currency reporting removes the impact of exchange rate changes to provide a comparative view of business performance[45] Cruise and Tour Operating Expenses - Cruise and tour operating expenses for the three months ended August 31, 2024, were $4,303 million, compared to $3,921 million in the same period in 2023[36]
Can Carnival Stock Cruise Higher Next Week?
The Motley Fool· 2024-09-27 15:30
The largest cruise line operator has a big earnings report to announce before the next opening bell.This may be the lull before earnings season starts up in earnest in a few weeks, but that doesn't mean that there's a moratorium on financial updates. Carnival (CCL 0.80%) (CUK 0.88%) reports its fiscal third-quarter results before the market opens on Monday.The final trading day of the month -- and quarter -- won't be sleepy. Carnival's report covers the months of June, July, and August. This is the peak tra ...
Carnival Pre-Q3 Earnings Analysis: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?
ZACKS· 2024-09-27 13:33
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Sept. 30, 2024.In the second quarter of fiscal 2024, Carnival reported stellar performance, with earnings per share (EPS) of 11 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1200%. The reported figure also increased from the year-ago period’s loss of 31 cents per share. Revenues of $5.8 billion, slightly came ahead of the consensus mark of $5.7 billion and increased 17.7% on a year-over-year basis. Sustained deman ...
Buy These 4 S&P 500 Year-to-Date Laggards With Solid Near-Term Upside
ZACKS· 2024-09-27 13:11
U.S. stock markets have been witnessing an impressive rally since the beginning of 2023 barring some minor hurdles. Wall Street’s bull run has got an added boost this year, to the surprise of a large section of financial pandits, who indiscriminately warned of overvaluation. Year to date, the three major stock indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — have advanced 11.8%, 21.1%, and 23.2%, respectively. Despite this strong northbound movement, more than 150 stocks within the broad-market ind ...
Carnival Gears Up For Q3 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts
Benzinga· 2024-09-27 07:11
Carnival Corporation CCL will release earnings results for its third quarter, before the opening bell on Monday, Sept. 30.Analysts expect the Miami, Florida-based company to report quarterly earnings at $1.16 per share, up from 86 cents per share in the year-ago period. Carnival projects to report revenue of $7.83 billion for the quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.Carnival, last month, unveiled new itineraries for seven ships sailing in 2026 and 2027 from Miami, Port Canaveral, Galveston, and Balt ...