Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation & plc is experiencing a notable increase in its consensus price target, reflecting growing optimism among analysts regarding its future prospects [2][6] Group 1: Price Target and Analyst Sentiment - The consensus price target for Carnival has risen from $28.19 to $37.33 over the past year, indicating a positive shift in analyst outlook [2][6] - Analyst Stuart Gordon from Berenberg Bank has set a lower price target of $23, suggesting a more cautious perspective amidst the overall optimism [2] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Positive Outlook - The recovery in the travel industry, aided by the easing of global travel restrictions, is benefiting Carnival, particularly as the summer quarter is typically its strongest [3] - Expectations for earnings per share (EPS) of $1.32 and revenue of $8.1 billion in the upcoming quarter are positive indicators for the company's outlook [3] - Operational improvements and strategic initiatives, including the introduction of new Sea Change targets, may enhance valuation multiples and boost analyst confidence [4] Group 3: Challenges and Upcoming Earnings - Rising costs pose a challenge that could impact Carnival's profit margins, particularly with increased expenses related to the opening of Celebration Key [5] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings results are anticipated to be mixed, prompting investors to closely monitor developments and analyst updates [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be delayed if Congress fails to reach a funding agreement by the specified deadline [1] Group 1 - The jobs report is scheduled for release on Friday [1] - The release of the jobs report is contingent upon Congress reaching a funding agreement by Tuesday night [1]

Labor Market Insights - The upcoming employment report is expected to provide clarity on the labor market, particularly regarding unemployment concerns that influenced the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut [3][4]. - The economy added 22,000 jobs in August, indicating a weaker performance compared to previous months, with a slight increase in unemployment [3][4]. Key Economic Data and Earnings Reports - A variety of labor market data will be released this week, including consumer confidence, home prices, factory orders, and construction spending [2]. - Earnings reports from major companies such as Nike, Carnival, and ConAgra Brands are anticipated, with Nike's report particularly focused on its turnaround efforts [5][6]. Company-Specific Developments - Nike is expected to reveal the effectiveness of its turnaround strategy in its quarterly earnings report, following smaller-than-expected declines in profits and sales [5]. - Tesla's upcoming delivery figures may surprise analysts positively, as there is an expectation of increased consumer activity due to expiring EV tax credits [5]. - Carnival's earnings report will be scrutinized to assess its ability to maintain recent success, while ConAgra Brands is expected to report on its sales performance after a previous decline [6].

Group 1: Shopify - Shopify has shown tremendous growth, with stock returns exceeding 400% since 2022, and continues to have significant expansion opportunities [4] - The majority of Shopify's revenue comes from merchant solutions, which grew 36% year over year in Q2 to over $2 billion [5] - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance its offerings, such as launching Catalog to integrate millions of products into AI-powered shopping apps [6] - Shopify's strong brand and competitive advantage stem from its innovative solutions that help merchants increase sales, creating a powerful incentive to attract more businesses [7] - Total spending by Shopify merchants in the U.S. is projected to be only 12% of the e-commerce market by 2025, indicating substantial growth potential [8] Group 2: RH (Restoration Hardware) - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are expected to revitalize the housing market, which has been stagnant due to high rates [10] - RH reported an 8.4% increase in revenue to $899.2 million in its recent Q2 earnings, benefiting from its focus on the higher-end market [12] - The company's business model has significant leverage, and margins could expand with increased demand, trading at a P/E of less than 20 based on fiscal 2027 estimates [13] Group 3: Carnival - Carnival has experienced a strong recovery, with record metrics in revenue, operating income, and customer deposits, indicating sustained demand [14][15] - Customer deposits reached $8.5 billion, with 93% of 2025 occupancy already booked, and 2026 demand aligning with historical highs [16] - Despite a staggering debt of over $27 billion, lower interest rates are facilitating debt repayment, with Carnival refinancing $7 billion at better rates [18][19]

Group 1 - Carnival Cruise stockholders have a unique opportunity to witness the company's improvement in profitability and balance sheet [1]

Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to increase by +5.3% year-over-year, with revenues up by +6.1% [2][9] - This anticipated growth would mark the lowest earnings growth pace since Q3 2023, which had a growth rate of +4.4% [2] - Positive revisions in earnings estimates have been noted for Q3, contrasting with the trends observed in the first two quarters of the year [3][5] Group 2: Sector Performance - Since July, Q4 estimates have increased for 7 out of 16 Zacks sectors, including Tech, Finance, and Energy [7] - The Tech sector is expected to continue as a growth driver, with earnings projected to increase by +12% in Q3 2025 and +8.7% in Q4 2025 [10] - Despite positive revisions in some sectors, 8 out of 16 sectors are experiencing pressure on Q4 estimates, particularly in Consumer Discretionary and Medical sectors [10] Group 3: Company-Specific Reports - Nike is expected to report earnings of $0.28 per share on revenues of $11 billion, reflecting year-over-year declines of -60% and -5% respectively [11] - Carnival is projected to report earnings of $1.32 per share on revenues of $8.07 billion, with year-over-year increases of +3.9% and +2.3% respectively [12] - Nike's stock has decreased by -8.4% year-to-date, while Carnival's shares have increased by +23.1% in the same period [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation is experiencing strong demand for cruise vacations, allowing it to avoid heavy discounting and improve revenue and profit margins despite concerns about its debt load [1][2]. Company Performance - Carnival's Q3 sales are expected to reach a record $8.07 billion, reflecting a 2% increase, while earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise 4% to $1.32 [3]. - The company has exceeded EPS expectations for 11 consecutive quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 169.85% in the last four quarters [3][4]. - Carnival's total sales are projected to grow by 6% in fiscal 2025, with FY26 sales expected to reach $27.56 billion, although this growth lags behind competitors like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line [5][6]. Earnings Growth - Carnival is anticipated to have a 42% EPS growth rate this year, leading its peers, with annual earnings expected to rise to $2.02 per share compared to $1.42 in FY24 [6]. - The projected FY26 EPS growth rate of 14.85% is expected to trail competitors but still surpass the S&P 500 benchmark [7]. Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Carnival's stock has gained over 20%, outperforming broader indexes, while Royal Caribbean has seen a 40% increase [8]. - Over the last three years, Carnival and Royal Caribbean stocks have posted significant gains of over 230% and 600%, respectively [8]. Valuation Comparison - Carnival shares are currently trading at $30 with a forward earnings ratio of 15.1X, which is a discount compared to Royal Caribbean's 21X [10][11]. - Both Carnival and Norwegian stocks are trading below the optimal level of less than 2X forward sales, while Royal Caribbean trades at 5.1X [11]. Investment Outlook - Carnival is positioned as a strong investment opportunity in the cruise sector, holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while Norwegian also shares this favorable ranking [12].

Industry Overview - The outdoor industry encompasses recreation, wellness, and lifestyle experiences focused on nature and activities away from home, including outdoor gear, apparel, recreational vehicles, and services for hiking, camping, boating, and off-roading [1] - The industry is experiencing steady demand driven by shifting consumer values towards health, sustainability, and experience-driven living, benefiting various age groups and regions [2] Company Highlights Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) - Carnival is experiencing resilient travel demand, stronger booking trends, and higher onboard spending, leading to an increase in its full-year 2025 guidance [6][9] - The company is focusing on fleet optimization, new ship launches, and targeted marketing investments to capture rising global demand, with plans for six additional AIDA ships to undergo refurbishment [7] - Carnival's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 6% and 42.3%, respectively, with a recent improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings by 0.5% [8] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) - Norwegian Cruise Line is benefiting from strong consumer demand and solid onboard spending, achieving record advance ticket sales of $4 billion [11] - The company is focusing on fleet management and new ship additions, with a new revenue management system expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [12] - NCLH's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 6% and 13.2%, respectively, with a recent improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings by 1% [13] Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) - Deckers Outdoor has entered fiscal 2026 with strong momentum, achieving record first-quarter results driven by HOKA and UGG brands, which exceeded expectations [14] - The company anticipates year-over-year increases of 14.6% and 6.7% in net sales for HOKA and UGG, respectively, supported by a balanced channel strategy and solid financial position [15] - DECK's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 9% and almost flat, respectively, with a recent improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings by 17.9% [17]

Group 1 - Carnival Corporation is set to release its third-quarter earnings results on September 29, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.32 per share, an increase from $1.27 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $8.11 billion, up from $7.9 billion a year earlier [1] - In the second quarter, Carnival reported adjusted earnings per share of 35 cents, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 24 cents, with quarterly sales of $6.328 billion surpassing expectations of $6.207 billion [2] Group 2 - Analysts have provided various ratings and price target adjustments for Carnival Corporation, with Stifel maintaining a Buy rating and raising the price target from $34 to $38 [8] - Barclays and JP Morgan also maintained Overweight ratings, with Barclays increasing the price target from $33 to $37 and JP Morgan from $34 to $39 [8] - Tigress Financial and B of A Securities both maintained Buy ratings, with price targets raised to $38 from $32 and $31 respectively [8]

Group 1 - Carnival Corporation is set to release its third-quarter earnings results on September 29, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.32 per share, an increase from $1.27 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $8.11 billion, up from $7.9 billion a year earlier [1] - In the second quarter, Carnival reported adjusted earnings per share of 35 cents, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 24 cents, with quarterly sales of $6.328 billion surpassing expectations of $6.207 billion [2] Group 2 - Analysts have provided various ratings and price target adjustments for Carnival Corporation, with Stifel maintaining a Buy rating and raising the price target from $34 to $38 [8] - Barclays also maintained an Overweight rating, increasing the price target from $33 to $37 [8] - JP Morgan, Tigress Financial, and B of A Securities have similarly maintained positive ratings and raised their price targets, indicating a generally favorable outlook for the stock [8]