Revenue Projections - Preliminary revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to be $106.0 million, a 10% increase from $96.7 million in Q1 2024[5] - Software revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at $46.4 million, reflecting an 18% growth compared to $39.3 million in Q1 2024[5] - Services revenue for Q1 2025 is anticipated to be $59.6 million, representing a 4% increase from $57.3 million in Q1 2024[5] - Full-year 2025 revenue guidance is reiterated to be between $415 million and $425 million[12] Bookings and Growth - Bookings for Q1 2025 are expected to reach $118.0 million, a 12% growth from $105.8 million in Q1 2024[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 is projected to be in the range of $33-$35 million, indicating a growth of 13-20% from $29.1 million in Q1 2024[5] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be in the range of 30-32%[12] Earnings and Shareholder Returns - Full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share is anticipated to be between $0.42 and $0.46[12] - The company has authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $100 million[2] Shareholder Agreements - Arsenal Capital Partners has agreed to a one-year lock-up on shares acquired in a December 2022 transaction[3]

Core Insights - Certara, Inc. reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of $106.0 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10% [4][8] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing adoption of biosimulation in drug development, supported by recent FDA initiatives to reduce animal testing [3][4] - Certara reiterated its full-year 2025 financial guidance, expecting revenue between $415 million and $425 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30-32% [15][20] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $106.0 million, up from $96.7 million in Q1 2024, marking a 10% increase [4][8] - Software revenue reached $46.4 million, an 18% increase year-over-year, while services revenue was $59.6 million, growing 4% [5][8] - Total bookings for Q1 2025 were $118.2 million, a 12% increase from the previous year, with software bookings growing by 23% [6][13] Profitability Metrics - Net income for Q1 2025 was $4.7 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $4.7 million in Q1 2024 [11][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $34.8 million, representing a 20% increase from $29.1 million in Q1 2024 [10][12] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.14, compared to $0.10 in the same quarter last year [12][13] Cost and Expense Management - Total operating expenses decreased to $56.9 million in Q1 2025 from $58.7 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a reduction in contingent consideration expenses [9][11] - The cost of revenue for the quarter was $41.5 million, up from $39.3 million in the previous year, driven by increased software amortization [7][8] Market Position and Outlook - Certara's leadership in biosimulation technology positions it favorably in the biopharma industry, with over 2,400 clients globally [18] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its software and service offerings to improve drug development efficiency [3][4] - Certara's financial outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, with expectations for continued growth in both revenue and profitability metrics [15][20]

Core Viewpoint - Certara, Inc. is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with earnings expected at $0.13 per share, reflecting a 30% increase, and revenues projected at $106 million, a 9.7% rise from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for May 5, and the stock may experience upward movement if the reported figures exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.63% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [10][11]. - Certara's Zacks Rank is currently 3 (Hold), which does not strongly indicate a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Certara exceeded the expected earnings of $0.13 per share by delivering $0.15, resulting in a surprise of +15.38% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Certara has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Industry Context - Exact Sciences, a peer in the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.37 per share, reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $689.35 million, an 8.1% increase [17]. - Exact Sciences has an Earnings ESP of 61.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a higher likelihood of surpassing the consensus EPS estimate [18].

Core Insights - The market has experienced volatility due to unexpected tariff policy changes, leading to uneven recovery among firms, with some stocks emerging as high-momentum plays [1][2] Group 1: Software-Based Drug Development - Certara Inc. has seen a 30% year-to-date increase in stock price, driven by strong outlook and a $100 million share buyback program [3][6] - Certara's revenue guidance for 2025 is projected between $415 million and $425 million, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between 42 cents and 46 cents [4] - Schrödinger Inc. has also experienced a 25% year-to-date increase, attributed to FDA policy shifts favoring human-relevant testing and a legal settlement [9][10] Group 2: Modular Furniture Industry - The Lovesac Co. reported a 23% increase in stock price following an earnings beat and the launch of new product platforms, with EPS exceeding expectations by 33 cents [12][14] - Lovesac's modular design allows for increased supply chain flexibility, enabling the company to adapt to geopolitical changes [14] - Analysts project a 57.86% upside for Lovesac's stock, with a current price of $20.06 and a 12-month forecast of $31.67 [13][14]

Core Insights - Certara, Inc. announced expected revenue and bookings for the first quarter, reflecting a positive outlook for the company [1] - The company reiterated its 2025 guidance, projecting sales between $415 million and $425 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30-32% and adjusted EPS of 42-46 cents [2] Financial Performance - Certara reported revenue of $106 million for the first quarter, a 10% increase from $96.7 million in the same period last year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $104.42 million [4] - Software revenue reached $46.4 million, up 18%, while services revenue was $59.6 million, up 4% [4] - Interim Q1 bookings totaled $118 million, a 12% increase, including software bookings of $40.6 million and services bookings of $77.4 million [4] - The company expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $33-$35 million, representing a growth of 13-20% [4] Strategic Initiatives - Certara is pursuing a strategic evaluation of its regulatory services business and has engaged in preliminary discussions with several external parties [3] - The company launched its Non-Animal Navigator solution aimed at assisting biopharmaceutical companies in transitioning from animal testing [3] Market Reaction - Following the announcements, Certara's stock price increased by 9.14%, reaching $14.10 [3]

New offering provides strategic guidance and AI-enabled biosimulation to navigate FDA’s Roadmap to Reducing Animal Testing in Preclinical Safety StudiesRADNOR, Pa., April 14, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Certara, Inc. (Nasdaq: CERT), a global leader in model-informed drug development, today announced the launch of its Non-Animal Navigator™ solution designed to help biopharmaceutical companies lead the transition ignited by the FDA’s Roadmap to Reducing Animal Testing in Preclinical Safety Studies. The Roadmap m ...

Reiterates Full-Year 2025 Guidance Arsenal Capital Partners agrees to a one-year lock-up RADNOR, Pa., April 14, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Certara, Inc. (Nasdaq: CERT), a global leader in model-informed drug development, today announced expected revenue and bookings for the first quarter of 2025 based upon a preliminary review of first quarter results. Additionally, the company announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock repurchase program under which the company may repurchase up to $100 mil ...

Core Viewpoint - Certara, Inc. has reported strong preliminary financial results for Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and bookings, and has reiterated its full-year guidance for 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - Expected revenue for Q1 2025 is $106.0 million, a 10% increase from $96.7 million in Q1 2024 [7]. - Software revenue is projected at $46.4 million, up 18% from $39.3 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - Services revenue is expected to be $59.6 million, reflecting a 4% growth from $57.3 million in Q1 2024 [7]. - Total bookings for Q1 2025 are anticipated to be $118.0 million, a 12% increase from $105.8 million in Q1 2024 [7]. - Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be in the range of $33-$35 million, representing a growth of 13-20% compared to $29.1 million in Q1 2024 [7]. Full-Year Guidance - The company maintains its full-year 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $415 million to $425 million [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year is expected to be between 30-32% [8]. - Adjusted diluted earnings per share is projected to be in the range of $0.42 - $0.46 [8]. Strategic Developments - Arsenal Capital Partners has agreed to a one-year lock-up on shares acquired from EQT, indicating continued support for Certara's growth [3][6]. - Certara is actively pursuing a strategic evaluation of its regulatory services business, engaging in preliminary discussions with external parties [9]. Share Repurchase Program - The Board of Directors has authorized a stock repurchase program allowing for the repurchase of up to $100 million of outstanding common stock, reflecting confidence in the company's strategy [2][3].

Chris Lau is an individual investor and economist with 30 years of experience covering life science, technology, and dividend-growth income stocks. He has degrees in Microbiology and Economics. Chris runs the investing group DIY Value Investing where he shares his top stock picks of undervalued stocks with catalysts for upside, dividend-income recommendations with quant and payment calendar tracking, high upside plays, and research requests to help you become a better do-it-yourself investor. Learn more.Top ...

Certara, Inc. (CERT) shares soared 8% in the last trading session to close at $10.51. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 11.6% loss over the past four weeks.Earlier this month, the company released a new version of the Simcyp Simulator for physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling, which forecasts the behavior of drugs in different body tissues. Per management, the latest version cements Certara’s positio ...