Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The return on tangible common equity has improved from below 5% to over 10%, with a path to the mid to upper teens over time [2] - The company anticipates net interest income growth of 3% to 5% for the year, with a net interest margin forecasted between 3.25% and 3.50% [34][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consumer banking segment has been transformed to target mass affluent and affluent customers, resulting in mid-single-digit household growth and high-single-digit deposit growth [14][15] - The commercial banking segment has expanded its coverage to mid-corporate clients, with significant investments in industry expertise and product capabilities [16][18] - The private banking segment is expected to become a significant contributor to profitability, with a projected EPS accretion of over 5% [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has entered the New York market, which is its fastest-growing region, demonstrating confidence in competing against larger banks [14][15] - Loan demand is expected to grow, particularly in the private banking sector, with anticipated growth of nearly $1 billion per quarter [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade, shedding legacy businesses and focusing on building new ones [10][11] - The strategy includes a focus on a "one citizens" approach, integrating private and commercial banking teams to enhance service delivery in key markets [29][30] - The company aims to improve its efficiency ratio from the mid to upper 60s down to the mid-50s over the long term [55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the economic outlook, citing a pro-business administration and anticipated improvements in trade and regulatory policies [3][4] - The company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties, with a strong credit outlook and minimal adverse migration in consumer loans [7][70] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in technology and risk management to support its growth strategy [11][64] - There is a focus on enhancing customer experience through improved digital capabilities and high-touch service models [28][64] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for loan growth? - Management anticipates solid growth in the private banking sector, with modest growth in consumer loans focused on real estate-backed lending [38][39] Question: How does the company plan to improve its efficiency ratio? - The company aims to achieve a lower efficiency ratio through disciplined investment and operational improvements, targeting a mid-50s ratio in the long term [55][58] Question: What is the company's stance on regulatory changes? - Management is optimistic about the regulatory environment, believing that recent changes will facilitate a more favorable operating landscape for the bank [79][80]

Financial Performance - Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $373 million, an increase of $39 million compared to the same period in 2024, with earnings per diluted common share rising by $0.12 to $0.77[18] - Total revenue for the same period was $1.9 billion, a decrease of $24 million year-over-year, primarily due to a 4% decline in net interest income[18] - The efficiency ratio improved to 67.91% for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 69.33% for the same period in 2024[18] - Return on Average Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) increased to 9.64% for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up from 8.86% in the prior year[18] - Tangible book value per common share rose by 5% to $33.97 from December 31, 2024[18] Income and Expenses - Net interest income decreased by $51 million, or 4%, for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to a 3% decrease in average interest-earning assets[27] - Noninterest income increased by $27 million, or 5%, for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, with notable increases in service charges and fees (up 14%) and mortgage banking fees (up 20%)[32] - Noninterest expense decreased by $44 million, or 3%, for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to lower other operating expenses[33] - Provision for credit losses decreased to $153 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, down from $171 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting Non-Core portfolio runoff and improving loan mix[37] Loans and Deposits - Total loans and leases decreased by $1.568 billion to $137.635 billion as of March 31, 2025, primarily due to a $2.3 billion decrease in retail loans[45] - Average deposits decreased by $3.4 billion, driven by lower commercial deposits and a reduction in higher-cost Treasury deposits[30] - Total deposits increased to $177,576 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $174,776 million on December 31, 2024, reflecting growth in Private Bank and consumer deposits[58] Capital and Liquidity - The company maintains cash and cash equivalents totaling $3.0 billion as of March 31, 2025, compared to $2.7 billion as of December 31, 2024[109] - Total available liquidity for CBNA was approximately $87.7 billion, including $71.0 billion in contingent liquidity[112] - Citizens Financial Group's CET1 capital ratio was 10.6%, while CBNA's was 12.3%[129] - The regulatory capital ratio, including AOCI impact (non-GAAP), was 10.8% as of March 31, 2025, compared to 9.1% in the previous period[141] Stock and Dividends - During the three months ended March 31, 2025, the Parent Company declared dividends on common stock of $186 million and on preferred stock of $33 million[110] - The Board of Directors increased the common share repurchase program capacity to $1.25 billion, an increase of $656 million from the previous authorization[136] - The company repurchased $200 million of outstanding common stock and declared quarterly common stock dividends of $0.42 per share, totaling $186 million[139] Regulatory and Compliance - The SEC's climate disclosure rule is under litigation, with the agency withdrawing from defense, which may impact future regulatory compliance[22] - The FDIC, FRB, and OCC announced intentions to rescind the Community Reinvestment Act final rule issued in October 2023, reinstating the previous framework[23] Market and Economic Outlook - The company’s economic forecast includes a mild recession with peak unemployment projected at approximately 5.1%[145] - The average effective duration of the securities portfolio was 3.6 years as of March 31, 2025, compared to 3.7 years as of December 31, 2024[43]

Core Insights - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) reported revenue of $1.94 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.2% year-over-year, with an EPS of $0.77 compared to $0.65 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.29%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate by 2.67% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Efficiency Ratio was reported at 67.9%, slightly better than the estimated 68.1% [4] - Net Interest Margin stood at 2.9%, matching the average estimate [4] - Book value per common share was $51.99, exceeding the estimated $50.90 [4] - Return on average common equity was 6.2%, surpassing the 6% average estimate [4] - Net charge-offs amounted to $200 million, higher than the estimated $176.35 million [4] - Return on average total assets was 0.7%, consistent with the average estimate [4] - Average balances of total interest-earning assets were $195.06 billion, slightly below the estimated $195.79 billion [4] - Net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans and leases were 0.6%, above the estimated 0.5% [4] - Tangible book value per common share was $33.97, exceeding the estimated $32.68 [4] - Tier 1 Leverage Ratio was reported at 9.4%, matching the estimate [4] - Tier 1 Capital Ratio was 11.9%, slightly below the estimated 12% [4] - Total Capital Ratio was reported at 13.9%, consistent with the average estimate [4] Stock Performance - Citizens Financial Group's shares have returned -11.9% over the past month, compared to a -4.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1 - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) reported quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75 per share, and up from $0.65 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 2.67% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.94 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, which was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.29%, and a slight decrease from $1.96 billion year-over-year [2] - Citizens Financial Group shares have declined approximately 17.5% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 8.3% for the S&P 500 [3] Group 2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.90 on revenues of $2 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.77 on revenues of $8.16 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Banks - Northeast is in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating that the industry is performing relatively well [8] - Byline Bancorp, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.62 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.4% [9]

1Q25 Financial Results April 16, 2025 Forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any statement that does not describe historical or current facts is a forward- looking statement. These statements often include the words "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "estimates," "intends," "plans," "goals," "targets," "initiatives," "potentially," "probably," "projects, ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net interest margin (NIM) expansion of three basis points to 2.90% [6][21] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 was 77 cents, with a return on tangible common equity (ROTC) of 9.6% [15] - The balance sheet remains strong with a CET1 ratio of 10.6% and a loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 77.5% [6][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private bank saw significant growth, reaching $8.7 billion in deposits and $5.2 billion in assets under management (AUM) [8][40] - Core retail loans grew slightly, driven by home equity and mortgage products, with HELOC up 9% year-over-year [62][64] - Non-interest income decreased by 3.5% linked quarter, impacted by seasonal effects in capital markets [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a favorable credit trend with net charge-offs at 58 basis points, down from 53 basis points in the prior quarter [32][34] - Non-accrual loans decreased by 5% linked quarter, indicating improved credit quality [33] - Period-end deposits increased by approximately $3 billion, or 2%, primarily in low-cost categories [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build a premier bank-owned private bank and private wealth franchise, with a focus on strategic initiatives in the private banking sector [39] - The strategy includes a transformed consumer bank and a well-positioned commercial bank among regional peers [39] - The company is optimistic about a pickup in loan demand and deal activity in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic stability [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted increased uncertainty in the macro environment due to policy decisions, but corporate and consumer borrowers are generally in good shape [9][10] - The company reaffirmed its EPS estimate for the full year, despite potential risks from economic uncertainty [10][44] - There is a significant amount of pent-up demand for M&A activity, with a record number of transactions in the pipeline [12][80] Other Important Information - The company executed $200 million in stock buybacks during the quarter, taking advantage of its strong capital position [36] - An agreement was made to sell approximately $1.9 billion in non-core education loans, which is expected to be accretive to NIM, EPS, and ROTC [17][38] - The company maintains a robust liquidity position with a pro forma liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of 122% [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color around loan demand and trends in line utilization? - Management indicated an increase in line utilization, driven by factors including tariffs and M&A activity, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of the year [54][56] Question: How does the company view capital management in light of potential weaker loan growth? - The company remains committed to its capital range and is open to increasing buybacks if risk-weighted assets decrease, while also monitoring economic conditions [70][73] Question: Can you discuss the capital markets outlook and fee guidance? - Management expressed confidence in their capital markets capabilities and noted a record pipeline of transactions, although timing may be affected by market conditions [80][86] Question: What is the ideal interest rate environment for the company? - The company is slightly asset sensitive and can perform well in a range of interest rate scenarios, with a focus on non-rate-related tailwinds driving NIM [93][99] Question: What unemployment rate is the reserve based on? - The baseline scenario assumes an unemployment rate of 5.1%, with higher rates applied to specific portfolios like commercial real estate [116][118]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $1,935 million, a decrease of 3% from Q4 2024 and a slight increase of 1% from Q1 2024[4] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $373 million, down 7% from Q4 2024 but up 12% compared to Q1 2024[4] - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.78, a decrease of 6% from Q4 2024 and an increase of 18% from Q1 2024[4] - Total interest income for Q1 2025 was $2,352 million, a decrease of 4% from Q4 2024 and 10% from Q1 2024[7] - Net interest income for Q1 2025 was $1,391 million, down 1% from Q4 2024 and 4% from Q1 2024[7] - Total noninterest income decreased to $544 million in Q1 2025, a decline of 5% from Q4 2024, but an increase of 5% from Q1 2024[7] - Total revenue for consumer banking was $1.490 billion, a slight decrease of 1% from $1.507 billion in Q4 2024, but a 10% increase from $1.351 billion in Q1 2024[12] - Net income for consumer banking was $336 million, down 6% from $358 million in Q4 2024, but up 24% from $272 million in Q1 2024[12] - Total revenue in commercial banking was $656 million, a 6% decrease from $696 million in Q4 2024, and an 11% decrease from $741 million in Q1 2024[14] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, were $220,148 million, reflecting a 1% increase from December 31, 2024[8] - Total deposits rose to $177,576 million, a 2% increase from December 31, 2024[8] - Total loans and leases decreased by $1,568 million (1%) from December 31, 2024, to $137,635 million as of March 31, 2025[9] - Total deposits increased by $2,800 million (2%) from December 31, 2024, to $177,576 million as of March 31, 2025[9] - Average interest-earning assets decreased by $1,555 million (0.79%) from the previous quarter to $195,058 million in Q1 2025[10] - Total interest-bearing liabilities decreased by $994 million (0.66%) from the previous quarter to $149,494 million in Q1 2025[10] - Total assets in the non-core segment decreased by 12% to $6.536 billion from $7.428 billion in Q4 2024, and decreased by 38% from $10.554 billion in Q1 2024[16] Capital and Equity - The CET1 capital ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 10.6%, down from 10.8% in Q4 2024[5] - Total stockholders' equity increased to $24,866 million, a 3% rise from December 31, 2024[8] - Total tangible common equity reached $14,867 million, marking a 4% increase from December 31, 2024[8] - Common stockholders' equity increased to $22.753 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 3% increase from $22.141 billion in Q4 2024[24] - Total capital decreased to $23.156 billion in Q1 2025, a decline of 0.3% from $23.232 billion in Q4 2024[24] - Total allowance for credit losses decreased to $2.212 billion at the end of Q1 2025, down 2% from $2.259 billion in Q4 2024[23] Efficiency and Ratios - The efficiency ratio for Q1 2025 was 67.91%, an increase from 66.27% in Q4 2024[5] - Return on average common equity for Q1 2025 was 6.21%, a decrease of 43 basis points from Q4 2024[28] - Noninterest income as a percentage of total revenue (non-GAAP) for Q1 2025 was 28.14%, a decrease of 76 basis points from Q4 2024[28] - Dividend payout ratio increased to 54% in Q1 25 from 51% in Q4 2024, reflecting a 325 basis points increase[30] Credit Quality - The provision for credit losses in Q1 2025 was $153 million, a decrease of 6% from Q4 2024[4] - Total nonaccrual loans and leases decreased to $1,582 million, down 5% from Q4 2024[18] - Allowance for loan and lease losses to loans and leases was 1.46% as of March 31, 2025, a decrease of 2 basis points from December 31, 2024[19] - Gross charge-offs for commercial and industrial loans increased to $34 million in Q1 2025, a 143% increase compared to Q4 2024[21] - Total loans and leases 90 days or more past due and accruing decreased to $155 million, a 21% decline from Q4 2024[19] Noninterest Expenses - Noninterest expense (GAAP) for Q1 2025 was $1,314 million, a slight decrease of $2 million (0%) from Q4 2024[27] - Salaries and employee benefits (GAAP) increased by 3% to $696 million in Q1 25 compared to $674 million in Q4 2024[30]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Citizens Financial Group (CFG) will report quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.4%, while revenues are expected to decline by 0.9% to $1.94 billion [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 2.4% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Metrics Estimates - The consensus estimate for the Efficiency Ratio is 68.1%, down from 69.3% a year ago [5]. - Analysts estimate the Book Value per Common Share at $50.90, compared to $47.43 last year [5]. - Average Balances of Total Interest-Earning Assets are projected to be $195.79 billion, down from $200.07 billion year-over-year [5]. Financial Ratios - The Return on Average Common Equity is expected to reach 6.0%, up from 5.6% in the same quarter last year [6]. - Net Charge-Offs are forecasted at $176.35 million, slightly down from $181 million a year ago [6]. - Tangible Book Value per Common Share is estimated at $32.68, compared to $30.19 last year [6]. Capital Ratios - The Tier 1 Leverage Ratio is projected to be 9.4%, up from 9.3% in the same quarter last year [7]. - Nonaccrual Loans and Leases are expected to reach $1.62 billion, compared to $1.47 billion a year ago [7]. - The Tier 1 Capital Ratio is anticipated to be 12.0%, slightly up from 11.8% last year [8]. - The Total Capital Ratio is expected to be 13.9%, compared to 13.8% a year ago [8]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio (CET1 Capital Ratio) is projected at 10.7%, up from 10.6% last year [8]. Recent Performance - Citizens Financial Group shares have decreased by 12.4% in the past month, while the S&P 500 composite has declined by 6.1% [9][10]. - CFG holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [10].

Company Overview - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) shares increased by 8.9% to $37.47 in the last trading session, following a period of 13.8% loss over the past four weeks, indicating a significant recovery in stock performance [1] - The stock price surge was influenced by President Trump's announcement on April 9, 2025, regarding a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners, which alleviated trade war concerns and improved the economic outlook, thereby boosting investor confidence in banking stocks like CFG [2] Earnings Expectations - Citizens Financial Group is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.4%, while revenues are expected to be $1.94 billion, a slight decline of 0.8% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for CFG has been revised down by 2.4% over the last 30 days, indicating a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions, which typically does not correlate with price appreciation [4] Industry Context - CFG is part of the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry, where NBT Bancorp (NBTB) also operates, having closed the last trading session at $40.45 with a 4.7% increase, although NBTB has seen a -9.6% return over the past month [4] - NBT's consensus EPS estimate remains unchanged at $0.76, representing an 11.8% increase compared to the previous year's EPS, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Citizens Financial Group (CFG) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for CFG is $0.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +15.4%, while revenues are projected to be $1.94 billion, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.35%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding CFG's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for CFG is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.27%, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CFG exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $0.83 by posting earnings of $0.85, achieving a surprise of +2.41%. However, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once in the last four quarters [12][13]. Conclusion - CFG does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].