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PresentationUnknown Analyst We're very pleased to have Citizens' Financial with us. From the company, we have Bruce Van Saun, Chairman and CEO. Bruce has been a very long supporter of this conference as CFO of Bank of New York Mellon; CFO of Royal Bank of Scotland; and for many, many years, Citizens Financial Group, where he is Chairman and CEO. So Bruce, thank you so much for joining us this morning. ...

Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG) FY Conference September 08, 2025 10:30 AM ET Unknown Speakertextnumber_of_speakersparagraphs ...

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets experienced modest gains in August 2025, with the S&P 500 increasing by 2.2%, marking its fourth consecutive month of growth, driven by investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings despite ongoing inflation and tariff concerns [1][9] Financial Services Sector Performance - The Financial Services sector saw significant investor optimism, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index and S&P Banks Select Industry Index rising by 5.5% and 8.3%, respectively, fueled by AI momentum, digital advertising strength, and expectations of a Fed rate cut [2][6] - Stronger-than-expected earnings reports and positive guidance from major financial institutions contributed to the bullish sentiment, alongside a rebound in capital markets activity [7][9] Key Financial Services Stocks - Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) is focusing on growing fee-based capital-light businesses, which currently account for 52% of its segmental revenues, with management projecting double-digit growth in this area over the long term [8][10] - Synchrony Financial (SYF) is leveraging its strong distribution channels and has expanded its offerings through acquisitions and partnerships, although it anticipates a decline in net revenues for 2025 due to higher Retailer Share Arrangements and lower loan receivables [14][16] - American Express Company (AXP) benefits from its dual role as a credit card issuer and network operator, with a projected revenue increase of 8-10% for 2025, despite exposure to credit risk from macroeconomic challenges [18][21] - Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is expanding its non-interest income base through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, with plans to open 50-60 new branches annually in high-growth regions from 2025 to 2028 [23][24] - Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is executing a long-term growth strategy focused on wealth management and market expansion, with a new private bank initiative expected to raise $7 billion in deposits by 2024 [27][30]

Core Insights - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) shares reached a 52-week high of $50.77, reflecting an 18.8% increase over the past year, outperforming peers like Regions Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp [1][9] - Investor optimism has surged following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments suggesting potential interest rate adjustments, which could lower funding costs and enhance loan demand, positively impacting net interest income (NII) for CFG and its peers [3] Strategic Expansion - CFG is implementing a multi-faceted strategy to enhance its wealth management capabilities, including the launch of Citizens Private Bank aimed at high-net-worth clients, which is projected to be profitable by Q4 2024 and has raised $7 billion in deposits [4] - The bank is expanding its presence in the New York Metro area and increasing its middle-market coverage in Florida and California, supported by new coverage bankers and investments in commercial banking infrastructure [5] - Investments in the payments platform and commercial middle-market operations are expected to improve client acquisition and support long-term revenue growth [6] Revenue Growth - CFG has shown steady organic growth with total revenues growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2020 to 2024, primarily driven by NII, which rose at a 5.3% CAGR [7] - Non-interest income, which had declined at a CAGR of 1.8%, rebounded in the first half of 2025, contributing to overall revenue stability [10] - Management anticipates NII growth of 3-5% in 2025, with a projected net interest margin (NIM) of 3%, up from 2.85% in 2024 [10] Sales Estimates - For the current quarter (September 2025), Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is $2.09 billion, with year-over-year growth estimated at 10.04% [12] - Sales for the next year (December 2026) are expected to reach $8.87 billion, reflecting an 8.04% year-over-year growth [12] Loan and Deposit Base - CFG maintains a solid loan and deposit base, with loans and leases growing at a CAGR of 3.1% and diversified deposits rising at 4.4% CAGR from 2020 to 2024 [13] - The bank's acquisition of HSBC branches and Investors Bancorp has added low-cost deposits and expanded its branch network, enhancing long-term funding stability [13] Inorganic Growth - CFG has pursued acquisitions to strengthen its geographic footprint, including the acquisition of College Raptor Inc., DH Capital LLC, and 80 East Coast branches from HSBC, adding 234 branches and expanding its presence in key markets [14][15] Liquidity and Shareholder Returns - CFG has a solid liquidity position with $9.2 billion in available liquidity and $249 million in short-term debt as of June 30, 2025 [15] - The company has increased its common share repurchase program capacity to $1.5 billion and has consistently paid dividends, with a current annual dividend yield of 3.31%, surpassing the industry average [16][17] Expense Management - CFG faces rising operating costs due to expansion and technology investments, with non-interest expenses rising at a CAGR of 18.4% from 2020 to 2024 [20] - Management expects expenses to increase by 4% in 2025, which may limit bottom-line growth [20] Loan Concentration Risk - CFG's loan portfolio has a high concentration in commercial loans, which accounted for 51.4% of total loans and leases as of June 30, 2025, posing potential risks in a changing macroeconomic environment [23][24] Valuation Concerns - CFG stock is currently trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.18X, higher than the industry average of 10.26X, suggesting that the stock may be expensive relative to its peers [26]

Group 1 - The investment group European Small Cap Ideas focuses on high-quality small-cap investment opportunities in Europe, emphasizing capital gains and dividend income for continuous cash flow [1] - The group offers two model portfolios: the European Small Cap Ideas portfolio and the European REIT Portfolio, along with weekly updates and educational content [1] - An active chat room is available for discussions on the latest developments of the portfolio holdings [1] Group 2 - A small 'placeholder' position in the Series E preferred shares is noted, following the call of Series D shares in 2024 [2]

分组1 - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies, including daily updates and access to research reports [1][2] - The Zacks Style Scores are designed to help investors select stocks with the highest potential to outperform the market within a 30-day timeframe [2][3] - Stocks are rated based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with scores ranging from A to F, where A indicates the highest potential for outperformance [3][4][5] 分组2 - The Value Score identifies attractive stocks using financial ratios like P/E and Price/Sales, appealing to value investors [3] - The Growth Score focuses on a company's financial health and future outlook, assessing projected earnings and sales [4] - The Momentum Score helps investors capitalize on price trends, utilizing factors like recent price changes and earnings estimate revisions [5] 分组3 - The VGM Score combines the three Style Scores to identify stocks with the best value, growth, and momentum characteristics [6] - The Zacks Rank, based on earnings estimate revisions, is a proprietary model that aids in stock selection [7][10] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically achieved an average annual return of +23.75%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8] 分组4 - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) is currently rated 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of B, indicating a stable outlook [12] - CFG has a Momentum Style Score of B, with shares increasing by 0.8% over the past four weeks, suggesting positive momentum [13] - Analysts have revised CFG's earnings estimate upwards, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising by $0.05 to $3.81 per share, reflecting a positive earnings surprise trend of +2.4% [13]

Company Overview - Citizens Financial Group, Inc. is headquartered in Providence, RI and became publicly traded through its initial public offering in September 2014 [11] - The company offers retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, institutions, and companies [11] Zacks Rank and Style Scores - Citizens Financial Group is currently rated 3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B [11] - The company has a Value Style Score of B, supported by a forward P/E ratio of 12.75, indicating attractive valuation metrics for value investors [12] - In the last 60 days, 10 analysts have revised their earnings estimates higher for fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $0.05 to $3.81 per share [12] - Citizens Financial Group has an average earnings surprise of +2.4%, suggesting a positive outlook [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent IPO of Citizens Financial Group's 6.5% Fixed Rate Reset security, targeting active investors interested in exchange-traded fixed-income securities [1] - The article invites active investors to join a free trial and engage in discussions within a chat room of sophisticated traders and investors [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results and does not provide specific investment recommendations [2] - It clarifies that the views expressed may not represent the opinions of Seeking Alpha as a whole and that the analysts involved may not be licensed or certified [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the industry, with a cautious view on midcap banks and a positive outlook for large cap banks [5][3]. Core Insights - The regulatory landscape for US banks is expected to undergo significant changes, with proposals for lower capital requirements likely to double excess capital and risk-weighted asset (RWA) capacity at large cap banks [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve is moving quickly on regulatory reforms, with a broad consensus anticipated on many proposals, including stress test transparency and GSIB surcharge adjustments [3][4]. - The expected increase in excess capital for large cap banks is projected to rise from $118 billion in Q2 2025 to $228 billion following the implementation of new regulations [7][9]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - Key changes anticipated over the next year include lower stress capital buffers (SCBs) from the 2025 stress test, enhanced stress test transparency, and reforms to the GSIB surcharge and supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) [7][10]. - The Basel III Endgame finalization is expected to provide clarity for banks to optimize capital, supporting loan demand and capital markets activity [10][11]. Capital and RWA Capacity - Large cap banks currently have $118 billion of excess capital, which is expected to increase to $157 billion after a lower 2025 SCB, $172 billion post-SLR reform, and $228 billion post-GSIB surcharge reform [9][17]. - Incremental RWA capacity for large cap banks is projected to double from $0.9 trillion in Q2 2025 to $1.9 trillion following regulatory changes [9][19]. Earnings Impact - A sensitivity analysis indicates that optimizing excess capital could lead to a median increase of 24% in consensus 2026 earnings per share (EPS) across large cap banks, midcap banks, and consumer finance coverage [10][34]. - Regional banks are expected to benefit significantly from faster M&A approvals, which should enhance capital positions and growth opportunities [10][11]. Company-Specific Opportunities - Citigroup is projected to increase its excess capital from $16 billion to $31 billion post-GSIB surcharge reform, with significant buyback plans [32]. - Bank of America is expected to see its excess capital rise from $10 billion to $33 billion, with strong buyback potential and loan growth [32]. - JPMorgan Chase anticipates an increase in excess capital from $38 billion to $60 billion, benefiting from lower GSIB surcharges [32]. - Goldman Sachs is positioned to benefit from a rebound in capital markets, with expected buybacks of $17 billion in 2025 [32][33]. - Wells Fargo is projected to increase its excess capital from $13 billion to $34 billion, allowing for organic growth and share repurchases [32].