Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.The power of ...

Whether it's through stocks, bonds, ETFs, or other types of securities, all investors love seeing their portfolios score big returns. But for income investors, generating consistent cash flow from each of your liquid investments is your primary focus.Cash flow can come from bond interest, interest from other types of investments, and of course, dividends. A dividend is that coveted distribution of a company's earnings paid out to shareholders, and investors often view it by its dividend yield, a metric that ...

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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 27, 2025 7:30 AM ET Company Participants Geoff Weiss - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Victor Dodig - President & Chief Executive Officer Rob Sedran - Chief Financial Officer Frank Guse - Chief Risk Officer Shawn Beber - Senior Executive Vice President & Group Head of US Region Harry Culham - Capital Markets, Global Asset Management & Enterprise Strategy Hratch Panossian - Personal & Business Banking, Canada Sus ...

Quarterly Results Presentation First Quarter 2025 February 27, 2025 All amounts are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. Forward-Looking Statements First Quarter 2025 A NOTE ABOUT FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: From time to time, we make written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including in this investor presentation, in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the SEC and in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to t ...

Group 1 - Canadian Imperial Bank reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38 per share, and up from $1.34 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 12.32% [1] - The bank's revenues for the quarter ended January 2025 were $5.12 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.88%, compared to $4.6 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - The company has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters [2] Group 2 - Canadian Imperial Bank shares have underperformed the market, losing about 4.4% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 1.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.37 on revenues of $4.74 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.46 on revenues of $19.39 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Banks - Foreign is currently in the bottom 48% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8]

Financial Performance - Net interest income for Q1 2025 was CAD 3,801 million, an increase of 4.6% from CAD 3,633 million in Q4 2024 and up 16.9% from CAD 3,249 million in Q1 2024[21] - Non-interest income reached CAD 3,480 million, up 16.6% from CAD 2,984 million in Q4 2024 and slightly up from CAD 2,972 million in Q1 2024[21] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was CAD 7,281 million, representing a 10% increase from CAD 6,617 million in Q4 2024 and a 17% increase from CAD 6,221 million in Q1 2024[21] - Net income for Q1 2025 was CAD 2,171 million, a 15.4% increase from CAD 1,882 million in Q4 2024 and a 25.8% increase from CAD 1,728 million in Q1 2024[21] - Reported net income for the quarter was $2,171 million, an increase of 25.7% compared to $1,728 million for the same quarter last year[37] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $2,179 million, up 23.1% from $1,770 million in the same quarter last year[37] - Total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $7,281 million, up from $6,221 million in the same quarter last year, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17%[54] - Net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $2,171 million, an increase of 22% from $1,728 million in the same quarter last year[54] Credit Losses - Provision for credit losses increased to CAD 573 million from CAD 419 million in Q4 2024, but decreased from CAD 585 million in Q1 2024[21] - Provision for credit losses was $573 million, down $12 million from the same quarter last year, but up $154 million from the prior quarter[45] - Provision for credit losses was reported at $573 million, with Canadian Banking accounting for $428 million and U.S. Commercial Banking for $39 million[84] - Provision for credit losses increased by $91 million from the same quarter last year, totaling $428 million, with higher write-offs in credit cards[105] - Provision for credit losses rose by $19 million from the same quarter last year, primarily due to an unfavorable change in the economic outlook[117] Efficiency and Ratios - The reported efficiency ratio improved to 53.3% in Q1 2025 from 57.3% in Q4 2024 and 55.7% in Q1 2024[21] - Return on common shareholders' equity for Q1 2025 was 15.2%, up from 13.3% in Q4 2024 and 13.5% in Q1 2024[21] - The CET1 ratio improved to 13.5% in Q1 2025 from 13.3% in Q4 2024 and 13.0% in Q1 2024[21] - The CET1 ratio as of January 31, 2025, was 11.5%, meeting the regulatory capital requirements[173] - The Tier 1 capital ratio increased to 15.1% as of January 31, 2025, from 14.8% on October 31, 2024, influenced by internal capital generation and LRCN Series 5 Notes issuance[182] Market and Economic Outlook - The economic growth forecast for Canada in 2025 is approximately 1.5%, slightly above the previous year's pace[28] - Canadian Personal Banking expects mortgage growth to return to long-term historic rates as lower interest rates attract buyers[31] - Corporate and investment banking is anticipated to benefit from recovering merger and acquisition activity and increased corporate bond issuance in 2025[34] - The Bank of Canada is expected to lower the overnight rate to 2.25% by mid-2025, supporting consumer demand and housing activity[28] Non-Interest Income and Expenses - Non-interest expenses increased by $413 million or 12% year-over-year, primarily due to higher performance-based compensation and strategic initiatives[47] - Income tax expense rose by $216 million or 49% compared to the same quarter last year, driven by higher income and the application of global minimum tax[49] - Non-interest expenses totaled $3,878 million, with Canadian Banking at $1,460 million and U.S. Commercial Banking at $853 million[84] - Non-interest expenses rose by $94 million or 7% year-over-year, primarily due to increased spending on strategic initiatives and employee-related compensation[107] Capital and Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased and cancelled 3,500,000 common shares at an average price of $91.59, totaling $320 million during the quarter[187] - The company redeemed all 12 million Series 41 preferred shares at a total cost of $300 million on January 31, 2025[193] - The company issued USD$500 million of LRCN Series 5 Notes with a fixed interest rate of 6.950% per annum, maturing on January 28, 2085[191] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased to CAD 1,082,464 million in Q1 2025 from CAD 1,041,985 million in Q4 2024 and CAD 971,667 million in Q1 2024[21] - Deposits increased by $17.3 billion or 2%, primarily due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar in business and government deposits[161] - Equity increased by $2.6 billion or 4% from October 31, 2024, mainly due to net foreign currency translation gains and retained earnings[164] Segment Performance - Canadian Personal and Business Banking revenue was $2,923 million, an increase of 9% from $2,679 million in the same quarter last year[54] - U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management revenue increased to $847 million, up 23% from $687 million in the same quarter last year[54] - Capital Markets revenue was $1,574 million, reflecting a significant increase from $1,310 million in the same quarter last year[54] - Total revenue for Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management was $1,703 million, an increase of $266 million or 19% year-over-year[114] Risk Management and Regulatory Compliance - The bank's risk management framework emphasizes collaboration between business units and risk management professionals to align strategies with risk appetite[214] - The complexity of the bank, as measured by Level 3 assets, slightly decreased to $916 million in 2024 from $953 million in 2023, a decline of about 3.9%[203]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is anticipated on February 27, 2025, with expected quarterly earnings of $1.36 per share, reflecting a +1.5% change year-over-year, and revenues projected at $4.79 billion, up 4% from the previous year [3][2]. - A positive earnings surprise could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Canadian Imperial Bank is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.15%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a focus on positive readings for predictive power [6][7]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically shown a nearly 70% chance of delivering a positive surprise [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Canadian Imperial Bank exceeded the expected earnings of $1.26 per share by delivering $1.40, resulting in a surprise of +11.11% [12]. - The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of the last four quarters [13]. Industry Context - In comparison, Bank of Montreal (BMO) is expected to report earnings of $1.68 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of -11.6%, with revenues projected at $5.98 billion, up 5.3% [17]. - BMO's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.4% lower, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.57%, making it difficult to predict a beat on consensus estimates [18].

Group 1 - The core focus for income investors is on dividends, which are distributions of a company's earnings paid to shareholders, often evaluated through dividend yield [1][4] - Canadian Imperial Bank's current annualized dividend is $2.67, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous year, with a 5-year average annual increase of 5.05% [2] - The current payout ratio for Canadian Imperial Bank is 49%, indicating that it pays out 49% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [2] Group 2 - Canadian Imperial Bank is positioned as a strong dividend investment opportunity, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Canadian Imperial Bank's earnings for 2024 is $5.49 per share, showing a year-over-year growth rate of 0.92% [6] - The stock has experienced a price change of 33.71% since the beginning of the year, with a current dividend yield of 4.14%, outperforming the Banks - Foreign industry's yield of 3.84% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.54% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net earnings of $7.3 billion, with earnings per share increasing by 10% year-over-year to $7.40 [10] - Revenues reached $25.6 billion, also up 10%, driven by margin expansion and higher fee-based income [10] - Pre-provision pretax earnings were $11.3 billion, up 11%, supported by record revenue performance [10] - The CET1 ratio stood at 13.3%, with a share buyback of 5 million shares and an 8% increase in quarterly dividends [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Canadian Personal and Business Banking, net income rose 17% to $748 million, with revenues increasing by 9% to $2.7 billion [41] - Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management saw net income up 5% and revenues up 11%, driven by a 21% growth in wealth management [43] - U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management reported net income of $150 million, up significantly due to lower loan loss provisions [46] - Capital Markets net income increased by 12% to $428 million, with revenues up 9% driven by strong results in Global Markets [48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company welcomed over 600,000 net new clients in the past year, indicating strong client acquisition [19] - In the U.S. segment, net interest margin increased by 21 basis points, primarily due to higher loan margins [36] - Wealth management in Canada ranked first among the big six banks in mutual fund net sales, reflecting strong market positioning [44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its mass affluent private wealth franchise and expand digital banking offerings [13][14] - A focus on leveraging a connected platform to enhance client relationships and improve service delivery is emphasized [15][16] - Investments in AI technologies are seen as critical for future growth and operational efficiency [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in entering fiscal 2025 with a strong capital position and robust credit quality [9] - The outlook for mortgage growth and consumer discretionary spending is positive, with expectations for acceleration in 2025 [20][21] - Management acknowledged geopolitical uncertainties but remains focused on executing their client-focused strategy [84] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a disciplined approach to expense management, targeting mid-single-digit expense growth [39] - The effective tax rate for the year was 22%, with guidance for the next year expected to be in the 23% to 24% range [119] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on mortgage business competitiveness - Management emphasized a client-focused strategy, balancing profitability with market share, and noted a 1% growth in mortgages while improving inflow spreads [68][70][72] Question: Economic outlook and regulatory environment - Management indicated a constructive view on the Canadian economy, expecting improvements in business sentiment and regulatory conditions [80][82][84] Question: Medium-term ROE target adjustments - Management clarified that the medium-term ROE target is now set at 15% plus, considering higher regulatory capital requirements [88][90][96] Question: Growth outlook for U.S. segment - Management expressed confidence in the U.S. segment's growth potential, with a strong pipeline despite current uncertainties [100][102] Question: Capital deployment strategy - Management reiterated a focus on organic growth and strategic investments, with a balanced approach to capital deployment in both Canadian and U.S. markets [110][114] Question: Credit guidance and loss rates - Management expects impaired provisions to trend slightly higher in retail while decreasing in U.S. commercial, reflecting strong performance in Canadian commercial books [121][123]