Group 1 - The article emphasizes the long-term growth and dividend growth investing strategy, focusing on identifying undervalued stocks and high-quality companies that provide cash for reinvestment [2] - Profitability is highlighted as a safer driver of gains compared to low valuation, with a strong emphasis on margins, free cash flow stability and growth, and returns on invested capital [2] - The author expresses a commitment to thorough research on high-quality companies, indicating a deep interest in understanding their business models and financial health [2] Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure stating that the author has a beneficial long position in Costco shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [3] - It is noted that the article reflects the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [3] - Seeking Alpha's disclosure clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [4]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, with stock performance exceeding the index by nearly 150 percentage points over the past five years and more than tripling the market's return over the last decade [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 of fiscal 2025, Costco reported a 5% increase in comparable-store sales and traffic compared to Q1 2024, contributing to an 8% revenue growth and a 13% net income growth [4][5] - Membership revenue reached $1.2 million in Q2, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous year, with over 77 million paid memberships and 139 million total cardholders as of Q1 2025 [7] Membership Fees and Future Revenue - Costco raised membership fees by 8% in September, a strategy employed every few years, which is expected to enhance revenue in the coming quarters [8] - The current valuation metrics may not fully reflect the future potential due to the delayed impact of the increased membership fees [8] Asset Ownership - As of the end of fiscal 2024, Costco owned 79% of its land and buildings, a factor often overlooked when assessing the stock's valuation [9] Valuation Considerations - Despite the strong financial results, Costco's stock trades at a premium, currently at 62 times trailing earnings, slightly below its 10-year high of 63 [2] - The current price is considered beyond fair value, leading to a cautious initial investment approach, with the potential for future position increases as more compelling value points arise [10][11]

ToplineAfter the People’s Union called for consumers to halt all online shopping on Feb. 28 in an “Economic Blackout,” Target lost that day in website visitors compared with mid-February Friday traffic, while Costco powered through with a 22% uptick, according to exclusive data from website analytics platform Similarweb.On Feb. 28 blackout day, Target website visitors dropped 9% compared to Friday, Feb. 14, from 5.2 ... [+] million to 4.7 million. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket ...

Core Viewpoint - Costco is expected to report strong second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, driven by strategic investments, customer-centric initiatives, and a focus on membership growth, making it a resilient consumer defensive stock [2][19]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $63.2 billion, reflecting an 8.2% increase year-over-year, while the earnings estimate has improved to $4.09 per share, indicating a 10.2% year-over-year jump [3][19]. - Costco has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2% on average, with the last quarter surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8% [6]. Growth Strategies and Market Position - Costco's competitive pricing, bulk purchasing power, and efficient inventory management contribute to its ability to maintain low prices and steady store traffic, with expected comparable sales growth of 4.3% in the second quarter [10][9]. - High membership renewal rates, exceeding 90%, provide a reliable revenue stream, with membership fees anticipated to increase by 8.1% during the quarter [11][19]. - E-commerce comparable sales are projected to rise by 18.5%, reflecting Costco's adaptability to market demands and ongoing expansion efforts [13]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Costco's stock has increased by 17.8% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 8.9% and competitors like Ross Stores, Dollar General, and Target [15]. - The company's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 55.59, significantly higher than the industry average of 33.05 and the S&P 500's 21.96, indicating a premium valuation [16]. Investment Considerations - Costco's strong membership model, competitive pricing, and growth potential suggest it remains an attractive investment, despite its premium valuation [18][19]. - Current investors may consider holding or adding to their positions, while new investors might view any price dips as buying opportunities [18].

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale is set to report its fiscal second-quarter results, with expectations for continued growth despite a challenging market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts predict an 8% revenue increase, reaching $63 billion for the 12-week period ending mid-February, with a modest profit forecast of $4.10 per share, reflecting less than a 5% year-over-year increase [4]. - Costco's total sales rose by 9.2% in December and 9.9% in January, with domestic comparable sales remaining above 9% [5]. - Analyst estimates for quarterly profit have gradually increased from $4.01 to $4.10 over the past three months, indicating positive sentiment [5]. Membership Fee Adjustments - Costco recently increased its membership fees, with the Gold Star plan rising from $60 to $65 and the Executive tier from $120 to $130, marking the smallest percentage increase since 1983 [6]. - Membership fees contribute approximately 2% of total sales but are crucial for profitability, translating into a significant portion of the bottom line [7]. Historical Context and Leadership - Costco has maintained positive top-line growth for over three decades, with only one year of decline during the Great Recession [9][10]. - CEO Ron Vachris, a long-time employee, has ensured continuity in leadership and operational strategy [10]. Market Position and Valuation - Costco's stock is currently valued at 57 times this fiscal year's net income projection, indicating a premium valuation compared to fundamentals [9]. - Historical performance suggests that betting against Costco has not been successful, reinforcing confidence in its market position [11].

Core Insights - Costco's dividend has consistently increased since its introduction in 2004, with a recent special dividend of $15 per share in January 2024 [1] - The current dividend payout is $4.64 per share, supported by strong free cash flow of approximately $2.2 billion in Q1 fiscal 2025 [3] - Despite the consistent dividend growth, the yield is only 0.4%, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 1.25% [4] Dividend Analysis - Costco's dividend yield is low compared to competitors, with Walmart at 0.9% and Target at 3.5% [5] - In 2024, shareholders received $19.50 per share in total dividend income, but the yield remains below 1.9% when considering the current share price [4] - The company has a history of increasing dividends, having raised its payout for 21 consecutive years [10] Stock Performance - Costco's stock price increased over 40% last year, outperforming the S&P 500 [6] - The company operates 890 warehouses globally, with plans to open 29 more in fiscal 2025 and a renewal rate of 91% [7] - Fiscal 2024 net income reached $7.4 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, with profits rising 13% in Q1 fiscal 2025 [8] Valuation Concerns - The current P/E ratio is at an all-time high of 62, raising concerns about valuation sustainability [8][12] - Analysts forecast only 13% annual profit growth for fiscal 2025, which may not justify the high earnings multiple [9] - The low dividend yield and high valuation suggest that investors may find better returns in other retail stocks [12]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer staples sector is demonstrating resilience amid a broader market downturn, outperforming the S&P 500 and breaking through previous resistance levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 ETF has declined nearly 3% in a week, with most sectors following this downward trend due to rising economic uncertainty [1]. - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) has outperformed the broader market, showcasing its defensive nature during turbulent times [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Characteristics - Consumer staples include essential goods such as food, beverages, household items, and personal care products, which maintain steady demand regardless of economic conditions [2]. - This sector is considered a "defensive" investment, providing consistent revenue and earnings, especially when growth stocks falter [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The XLP ETF offers diversified exposure to the consumer staples sector with a low expense ratio of 0.09% and a dividend yield of 2.2%, making it a cost-effective choice for long-term investors [6]. - Costco Wholesale, as XLP's largest holding, has seen its stock rise over 43% in the past year, with a projected EPS of $4.09 for its upcoming earnings report [8][9]. - Philip Morris International has surged 72% over the past year, with a robust dividend yield of 3.43% and strong earnings guidance for 2025, driven by a significant increase in oral product shipments [10][11].

Group 1 - Costco is opening nine new warehouse stores globally this year, with six in the U.S. set to open in March 2025 [1] - New store locations in the U.S. include Brentwood, Highland, Prosper, Weatherford, Genesee County, and Sharon, with additional openings in Stuart, Florida, and Minami Alps, Japan [1] - The company plans to open a Costco in Ardeer, Australia later this year, although no specific date has been provided [3] Group 2 - Costco's CEO announced a projection of 29 openings during fiscal year '25, including 26 net new buildings, with 10 warehouses outside the U.S. [5] - The retailer reported net sales of $19.51 billion for January, reflecting a 9.2% increase from the previous year [5] - Currently, Costco operates 897 warehouses worldwide, with growth opportunities identified in Canada, Mexico, Europe, and Asia [6]

Group 1 - The momentum trade has shifted from large-cap technology and AI-focused companies to unexpected players such as Walmart and Costco, along with some major banks [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of thematic investing and market events, highlighting the need for financial narratives that resonate with everyday investors [1] - It discusses the role of macro drivers in various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1] - The use of empirical data and charts is noted as a method to effectively communicate financial information [1]

Core Viewpoint - Costco's stock experienced a decline of 2.6% due to negative news from rival Walmart, despite Costco's usual strong performance in the market [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Walmart reported its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 financial results, showing decent year-over-year growth in revenue, but a decline in net income [2]. - Walmart's profitability guidance for fiscal 2026 fell short of analyst expectations, impacting market sentiment towards Costco as well [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Costco operates on a membership model, contrasting with Walmart's open supermarket format, yet both companies are affected by the same retail environment [3]. - Concerns about one retailer can lead to market reactions that impact others in the same sector, as seen with Costco's stock movement following Walmart's results [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Despite the negative impact from Walmart's results, there are positive indicators in Walmart's performance, such as a 16% year-over-year growth in international e-commerce and overall revenue growth exceeding 4% [4]. - The overall sentiment remains bullish on large retail companies, including both Costco and Walmart [4].