美国零售巨头沃尔玛和好市多的估值已超越英伟达，投资者对这些"安全股"的盲目信任可能正在酝酿 一场危险的股市修正。 8月27日，彭博社财经评论员Jonathan Levin发表文章指出，当市场的目光都聚焦在英伟达那高昂的股价 上时，一个更隐蔽、或许也更危险的估值泡沫，可能正在好市多和沃尔玛这两家被视为"绝对安全"的零 售巨头身上发生。 作者指出目前沃尔玛和好市多的远期市盈率分别达到34.3倍和47倍，均高于英伟达的34倍。而这两家公 司的股票之所以昂贵，并非完全因为其业务增长前景，而更多是源于一种"安全悖论"。 作者警告说，正如"兴登堡号"飞艇在坠毁前一直保持着近乎完美的飞行记录一样，市场中最惨痛的抛 售，往往发生在那些被人们误以为绝对安全的领域。 估值水平远超合理区间 文章援引数据指出，沃尔玛和好市多的远期市盈率分别高达34.3倍和47倍，而同期英伟达的市盈 率"仅"为34倍。 更重要的是，这种高估值已经严重偏离了它们自身的历史水平。 作者强调沃尔玛当前的市盈率比其过去十年（2015-2024）的平均值高出约3.3个标准差，而好市多也高 出了约1.7个标准差。 用更直白的语言解释就是，这两家公司的股价已经进入 ...

Let's do some more calls. CLSA initiates Micron today. Outperform 155 is the target.Quote, riding the crest of the AI wave. Bill, you own the name. A name that doesn't get discussed all that much to be honest when we talk about the AI wave.>> Not discussed enough. I mean, this this name, I've loved it for a while and it's been our portfolios. Um, high bandwidth memory, you know, faster computing, more efficient computing at a lower power consumption.It's going to be critical here uh in the AI race. and they ...

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with net sales increasing 8% year over year to $62 billion, driven by digital commerce growth [1][9] - E-commerce sales saw a notable 14.8% increase in Q3, with adjusted growth reaching 15.7%, highlighting the company's ability to integrate digital and physical retail [9] Digital Commerce Performance - Digital momentum was evident with website traffic rising 20%, average order value increasing 3%, and Costco Logistics enhancing deliveries of bulky items by 31% [2][9] - Categories such as gold and jewelry, toys, health and beauty, and home furnishings experienced double-digit online gains, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-value digital purchases [2] Growth Initiatives - Costco's partnership with Affirm introduced Buy Now, Pay Later financing, making large-ticket items more accessible [3] - The implementation of personalized product recommendation tools and the expansion of the Costco Next marketplace improved the member experience while maintaining a value-first philosophy [3] Physical Store Performance - Comparable sales across the company rose 5.7%, with U.S. traffic up 5.5%, demonstrating strong performance in physical stores [4] - Membership renewal rates remained high at 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada, indicating sustained customer loyalty despite the growth in digital adoption [4] Overall Business Strategy - Costco's online business is evolving into a significant growth pillar, reinforcing its leadership in both physical retail and digital commerce [5] - The balance between warehouse operations and e-commerce is a key competitive advantage for Costco [4] Comparative Analysis - Costco's e-commerce growth is notable when compared to competitors, with Walmart Inc. reporting a 25% increase in global e-commerce sales and Sprouts Farmers Market achieving 27% growth [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - COST stock has outperformed the industry, with a 7.4% increase over the past year compared to the industry's 3.3% growth [8] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Costco stands at 48.19, higher than the industry average of 32.34, indicating a premium valuation [11]

Core Insights - The earnings season for retail stocks highlights the disparity in consumer spending between low/middle-income and high-income households due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - Companies like Walmart are experiencing a trade-down effect, where higher-income consumers are opting for value-oriented retailers [2][3] Group 1: Costco Wholesale - Costco has shown strong performance with a total return of over 220% in the last five years, indicating robust stock appreciation and dividend reinvestment [4] - The company's business model relies on an annual membership fee, which provides stable revenue, and it recently raised this fee for the first time in seven years while maintaining a retention rate above 90% [5] - Costco's commitment to expanding its global footprint is expected to drive future revenue and earnings growth, justifying its premium valuation at over 54 times forward earnings [6] Group 2: Ross Stores - Ross Stores caters to budget-conscious consumers seeking value, especially during economic uncertainty, and has a strong performance with a total return of over 72% in the last five years [7][9] - The company anticipates some earnings pressure due to tariffs, as approximately 50% of its inventory is sourced from China, but it maintains solid fundamentals with strong traffic and comparable store sales growth [8] - Analysts have a consensus price target of $159.40 for Ross Stores, indicating that the stock may be fairly priced despite tariff challenges [9] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Both Costco and Ross Stores can coexist in a diversified investment portfolio due to their distinct business models and target consumers [10] - Costco is viewed as a growth stock with defensive characteristics, benefiting from higher-income households' spending [10][11] - Ross Stores represents a cyclical play in retail, appealing to value-oriented shoppers, which is expected to sustain strong traffic and comparable sales [12]

2025年08月24日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 资金流向：整体流入接近停滞，行业间分化较大 本周，标普500成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+1.7（亿美元，下同），上周为+75.8，近4周为-75.0，近13周为+209.2。 18个行业资金流入，6个行业资金流出。资金流入的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（+11.0）、综合金融（+4.6）、银行（+3.8）、资本品（+3.3）、医疗保健设备 与服务（+3.3）；资金流出的行业主要有：软件与服务（-29.9）、半导体产品与设备（-7.7）、食品与主要用品零售（-4.7）、技术硬件与设备（-2.3）、媒 体与娱乐（-1.1）。 盈 ...

Core Insights - Rising inflation is expected to benefit both Walmart and Costco as consumers seek low-price options [2][3][11] - Walmart has a larger market cap of $778 billion compared to Costco's $441 billion, with Walmart operating over 10,000 stores globally [5] - Costco's membership model contributes significantly to its profits, with membership fees accounting for about 65% of net income [9] Financial Performance - Walmart's total revenue for fiscal 2024 was $648 billion, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 5.7% to $6.65 [8] - Costco reported a 6.7% increase in U.S. net sales to nearly $238 billion for fiscal 2023, with membership fees rising by 8% to $4.58 billion [9] - Costco's stock rose 63% in the 52 weeks following its earnings release, while Walmart shares climbed 66% in the same period [8][10] Market Position and Strategy - Walmart managed to keep grocery price increases to 3% during a period of 6% to 9.1% inflation, outperforming competitors like Amazon and Kroger [7] - Costco's membership-driven model provides stability during inflationary periods, as evidenced by a 10.4% increase in membership fee income in its recent quarter [10] - Analysts expect Costco to increase earnings per share by 10% for the current quarter, while Walmart's recent earnings report was slightly disappointing [12][13] Future Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to thrive amid rising grocery prices, but Costco's membership model may offer a more advantageous position given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [14]

Core Insights - Costco has successfully established itself in the Chinese market over the past six years, leveraging its unique membership model and high-quality product offerings to enhance consumer shopping experiences [1][12] - The company has expanded its store presence to seven locations across six cities in mainland China, demonstrating a strong growth trajectory since its first store opening in Shanghai [4][12] Expansion Strategy - The first Costco store in mainland China opened in Shanghai on August 27, 2019, with a shopping area of nearly 14,000 square meters and over 1,000 parking spaces, attracting significant customer traffic [2] - Following the successful launch, Costco opened its first store in Shenzhen in January 2024, achieving a remarkable membership registration of 140,000 prior to the opening [2][4] Operational Excellence - Costco's expansion in China is supported by precise site selection and refined operational strategies, resulting in a solid foundation for growth [4] - The company has introduced unique services, such as the first Costco member-only gas station in Nanjing, which offers self-service fueling at discounted prices [4] Global Sourcing and Pricing Strategy - Costco employs a global sourcing strategy that ensures popular international products are available in China, while also providing opportunities for local products to reach global markets [5] - The company maintains a strict gross margin cap of 14% on all products, ensuring competitive pricing through a robust global procurement system and partnerships with leading manufacturers [5] Enhanced Member Services - In response to the growing demand for efficient online shopping, Costco launched a home delivery service in 2024, offering same-day delivery within 90 minutes in select cities [6] - The online platform features a wide range of products, including food, personal care, electronics, and large appliances, allowing members to enjoy a seamless shopping experience [6] Private Label Strategy - Costco has maintained a high standard for supplier management, offering around 4,000 carefully selected global products while adapting its offerings to local consumer preferences [7] - The company has localized some of its private label products, such as Kirkland Signature, to reduce costs while ensuring quality comparable to mainstream brands [7] Commitment to Sustainability - Costco emphasizes sustainable practices, such as reducing plastic use in packaging and offering products certified by international organizations for environmental responsibility [10] - The company’s products, including Kirkland kitchen paper and seafood, adhere to sustainability certifications, ensuring traceability and environmental stewardship [10][12] Future Outlook - China is a key market for Costco, and the company aims to continue expanding its store footprint while enhancing member value through a combination of global procurement and local innovation [12] - The company plans to deepen its market trust through a sustainable product strategy and an integrated online-offline shopping experience [12]

中国连锁经营协会（CCFA）最新公布的数据显示，中国超市百强企业的销售总额在过去一年里达到了约9000 亿元人民币，虽然实现了0.3%的微小增长，但门店总数却显著下滑了9.8%，减少到了2.52万家。这一数据揭 示了超市行业在多元化消费趋势和电商冲击下的转型挑战。 在行业变革的大潮中，超市百强企业的表现呈现出鲜明的两极分化。据统计，仅有14家企业实现了销售额和 门店数量的双重增长，这些企业在激烈的市场竞争中凭借精准的市场战略、创新的运营模式和卓越的服务品 质脱颖而出，成为行业中的佼佼者。 | 序号 | 企业名称 | 超市品牌 | 2024销售规模总计 | 销售额同比 | 2024门店总数 | 门店數同比 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (含税万元) | (%) | (个) | (%) | | | 1 | 沃尔玛(中国) 投资有限公司 | 沃尔玛,山姆 | 15884490 | 19.6 | 334 | (8.5) | ★ 1 | | 2 | 康成投资(中国)有限公司 | 大润发、大调发Super、M会员店 | 7 ...

When a stock is rising rapidly in value, it's inevitable that its valuation will get out of control. And with a market cap of $430 billion, Costco is no exception. The stock is now trading at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 55. The S&P 500 average is just 25. Costco's stock has been at elevated levels for some time, and investors, for the most part, have been willing to pay a premium to own a piece of the business. The retail stock is down around 10% from its 52-week high of $1,078. Since 2020, sha ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett emphasizes the importance of long-term investment rather than market timing, suggesting that investors should accumulate time in the market to benefit from economic growth in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Buffett's cash holdings as a percentage of total assets in Berkshire Hathaway can indicate his market sentiment, with high cash levels suggesting he is waiting for better investment opportunities [2][3] - Current cash levels in Berkshire Hathaway have not been seen since previous economic downturns, indicating a potential strategy of waiting for lower stock prices [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - High-quality, resilient companies such as PepsiCo, Waste Management, and Costco are highlighted as attractive investment options in a potentially overvalued market [4] - PepsiCo's current P/E ratio of 18.1x is below its historical average of 23.0x, suggesting it may be undervalued and suitable for a dollar-cost averaging strategy [5][6] - Waste Management is recognized for its stable business model and consistent long-term returns, with a current P/E ratio of 33.89 and a price target of $254.35, indicating a potential 23% upside from its current price [9][11] - Costco is noted for its resilience and ability to deliver value, despite having a high P/E ratio of 55.64, which reflects its premium status in the retail sector [13][14]