Core Viewpoint - Investors with significant capital have adopted a bearish stance on Costco Wholesale, indicating potential market movements or insider knowledge regarding upcoming events [1][2]. Options Trading Activity - The sentiment among large-money traders is predominantly bearish, with 63% of positions being bearish and only 36% bullish. Notably, there were 11 options trades identified, including 1 put option worth $37,000 and 10 call options totaling $643,669 [3][2]. - The major market movers are focusing on a price range between $740.0 and $1060.0 for Costco Wholesale over the past three months, suggesting a strategic interest in this price band [4]. Volume and Open Interest - The mean open interest for Costco Wholesale options trades is 346.2, with a total trading volume of 156.00, indicating a moderate level of activity in the options market [5]. Largest Options Trades - Significant options trades include a bearish call sweep with a total trade price of $162.6K and various bullish trades with total prices ranging from $61.2K to $112.0K, reflecting mixed sentiments among traders [9]. Company Overview - Costco Wholesale operates approximately 910 warehouses globally, serving over 80 million members. The company generates about 73% of its revenue from the US, with grocery offerings accounting for 55% of fiscal 2025 revenue [10]. - Analysts have issued ratings for Costco Wholesale, with a consensus target price of $1066.67, reflecting a generally positive outlook despite current bearish options activity [11]. Current Stock Performance - The stock price of COST is currently at $977.35, showing a slight increase of 0.12%. Analysts maintain optimistic ratings, with target prices of $1000 and $1100 from different firms [13].

Weather Impact on Retail - A winter storm is expected to affect a significant portion of the U.S., potentially impacting consumer behavior and retail sales [2][3] - Costco (COST) is anticipated to benefit from increased sales as consumers engage in pantry-loading ahead of the storm, similar to past events [4] - Anecdotal evidence shows crowded Costco stores in states like Texas and Florida, with shares up 13% year-to-date [5] Restaurant and Retail Sector Challenges - Dine-in restaurants and discretionary retail are likely to face revenue headwinds due to consumers staying indoors during the storm [5][6] - Several restaurant companies have previously reported traffic declines during severe winter weather [6] Capital One Acquisition - Capital One (COF) has announced the acquisition of fintech company Brex for $5.15 billion, with the deal structured as 50% cash and 50% stock [7][8] - This acquisition aims to enhance Capital One's capabilities in serving corporate clients through Brex's technology for corporate cards and expense management [8] Intel Earnings Report - Intel (INTC) reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results but provided a Q1 outlook that fell below analyst expectations, leading to a 12% drop in premarket shares [9][10] - The company expects Q1 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected to break even [10]

Group 1: Weather Impact on Retail - A winter storm is expected to affect a significant portion of the U.S., potentially impacting consumer behavior and retail sales [2][3] - Costco (COST) is anticipated to benefit from increased sales as consumers engage in pantry loading in preparation for the storm, similar to past events [4] - Anecdotal evidence shows crowded Costco stores in states like Texas and Georgia, with shares of Costco up 13% year-to-date [5] Group 2: Restaurant Sector Challenges - Dine-in restaurants and discretionary retail are likely to face revenue headwinds due to consumers sheltering indoors during the storm [5] - Several restaurant companies, including Dunkin' and McDonald's, have previously noted that severe winter weather negatively impacts customer traffic [6] Group 3: Capital One Acquisition - Capital One (COF) has agreed to acquire fintech company Brex for $5.15 billion, with the deal structured as 50% cash and 50% stock [7][8] - This acquisition aims to enhance Capital One's capabilities in serving corporate clients, particularly in corporate card issuance and expense management [8] Group 4: Intel Earnings Report - Intel (INTC) reported stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings but provided a Q1 revenue outlook below analyst expectations, leading to a 12% drop in premarket shares [9][10] - The company expects Q1 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share anticipated to break even, below the expected $0.08 [10]

Core Insights - Costco is continuously evolving its membership model, introducing new perks for its over 81 million paying members, which is crucial for maintaining customer satisfaction and loyalty [1][5][9] Industry Overview - The global retail industry is projected to grow from approximately $29.8 trillion in 2026 to about $41.5 trillion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 6.9% [2] - The retail space is highly competitive, making it challenging for companies to differentiate themselves while maintaining profitability [3] Company Developments - Costco plans to introduce four new benefits for its members in 2026, aimed at enhancing the value of membership [11] - The company raised its annual membership fee in September 2024, with Executive members receiving enhanced perks, including a 2% cash back reward of up to $1,250 and a $10 monthly credit with Instacart [6][8] New Member Benefits - **Digital Membership Scanning at Food Courts**: Starting in 2026, members will need to scan their membership cards to access food court items, reinforcing the value of membership [12][13] - **Standalone Gas Station**: Costco is opening its first standalone gas station in Mission Viejo, California, which will only be accessible to paying members [14][15] - **Expansion of Pre-scan Technology**: The company will enhance its pre-scanning technology at checkout, potentially reducing checkout times by up to 20% [17][18] - **Prescription Drug Price Transparency**: A partnership with Navitus will allow members to see the cost of prescription drugs, promoting transparency in pricing [19][20][21] Financial Insights - Membership fees, while a small fraction of Costco's net revenue, are high-margin and contribute significantly to operating income [9]

Group 1: Seasonal Patterns Overview - The article discusses five seasonal trading patterns that have consistently delivered high returns over time [2][27] - These patterns are based on historical data and are designed to provide actionable trading opportunities [27] Group 2: Tapestry Inc. - Tapestry Inc. (NYSE:TPR) has a seasonal pattern that starts now, with a return on investment (ROI) of 192% over a duration of 35 days [3][5] - The company is known for luxury brands like Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman, and performs well when consumer spending confidence is high [5][6] Group 3: Costco Wholesale Corp. - Costco (NASDAQ:COST) has a seasonal pattern starting in February, with an ROI of 50% over 13 days [7][10] - The company operates on a bulk-buy model and maintains a loyal membership base, making it resilient in volatile markets [9][10] Group 4: SPDR Gold Shares - SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) has a seasonal pattern starting in March, with an ROI of 153% over 23 days [10][15] - This pattern aligns with current market momentum and is particularly relevant given the rising gold prices amid economic uncertainty [15][16] Group 5: The Progressive Corp. - The Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) has a seasonal pattern starting on May 16, with an ROI of 128% over 50 days [18][20] - The company is recognized for its strong underwriting and steady revenue, making it a reliable performer during market stress [20][21] Group 6: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has a seasonal pattern starting on October 20, with an ROI of 112% over 77 days [22][23] - As the largest bank in the U.S., it is sensitive to interest rate changes and provides insights into market sentiment [25][26]

Core Insights - Costco has partnered with American Family Insurance to provide discounted car insurance to its members, offering benefits such as free roadside assistance and lifetime renewability for Executive Members, although the coverage is described as simple and lacks a mobile app [1][2][22]. Group 1: Insurance Offerings - Costco's auto insurance includes standard coverage options like liability, comprehensive, and collision insurance, with exclusive discounts for members, particularly for Executive Members who may receive enhanced benefits [3][11]. - The insurance features accident forgiveness after three years without an incident and includes optional emergency roadside assistance, which is free for Executive Members [11][22]. - There are nine types of auto insurance coverage available through Costco, including new car replacement and GAP insurance [13][11]. Group 2: Customer Satisfaction and Pricing - American Family Insurance, the parent company, has the lowest average monthly premium for full coverage at $151 and for basic liability-only coverage at $89, making it competitive among major insurers [15][16]. - J.D. Power's customer satisfaction scores indicate that American Family scored better than average in three out of five regions, while CONNECT by American Family was rated better-than-average in California [8][12]. Group 3: Discounts and Claims Process - Costco members can qualify for various discounts, including good driver, defensive driver, and multi-vehicle discounts, which can lower premiums significantly [17][12]. - Claims for Costco car insurance are managed by American Family Insurance, allowing members to file claims online or via phone, with a claims representative typically contacting them within one business day [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, despite the general indifference towards stock splits, which do not affect the overall value of investments [1][7]. Company Performance - Costco has historically provided significant returns to investors, averaging annual gains of approximately 21% over the past decade [4]. - The company has effectively balanced the interests of its three main stakeholders: employees, customers, and shareholders, by offering competitive wages, reasonable pricing, and solid long-term gains [4]. Stock Valuation - Currently, Costco's stock is considered richly valued, with a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47, which exceeds its five-year average of 41 [5]. - Investors are advised to consider waiting for a price pullback before investing, or to buy shares incrementally if they are eager to invest [5]. Stock Split Speculation - There is speculation that Costco may conduct a stock split in 2026, but investors are cautioned not to place too much importance on this event [7]. - The focus should remain on the company's valuation rather than the potential for a stock split [7].

Group 1 - The company aims to invest in firms with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals, and holding them indefinitely [1] - The investment strategy focuses on managing a concentrated portfolio to avoid underperformers while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [1] - The company plans to publish articles on selected companies approximately three times a week, including extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates [1] Group 2 - The company may rate high-quality firms as 'Hold' if their growth opportunities do not meet the required threshold or if the downside risk is deemed too high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis remains bearish on Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) due to concerns over frothy valuation and emerging signs of weakness in the company's performance [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted financial metrics indicate that cracks are starting to appear in Costco's performance, suggesting potential challenges ahead [1]

Core Insights - H-E-B has been ranked as America's top grocery store for the fifth time in nine years, surpassing major competitors like Amazon, Costco, and Trader Joe's [1][2] - The ranking is based on a study by Dunnhumby, which evaluated 81 major U.S. grocery stores, combining financial performance with survey responses from over 11,000 American shoppers [8] Company Performance - H-E-B operates more than 440 stores and is recognized for its superior ability to deliver better savings, quality, experience, and assortment [2] - Market Basket and Woodman's ranked second and third, respectively, while Costco, Aldi, WinCo Foods, Trader Joe's, Amazon, Wegmans, and ShopRite completed the top ten [5] Market Trends - For the first time, the leading three retailers in the U.S. are all regional chains, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5] - Consumer confidence has declined due to rising prices, limited job opportunities, and stagnant wages, leading shoppers to make more price-conscious choices [8][11] Economic Context - Overall food prices increased by 0.7% in December and 3.1% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [12]