Core Viewpoint - Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) has decided to maintain its rig count at nine in the Permian Basin, indicating renewed confidence in the oil market despite previous plans to reduce operations due to market uncertainties [1][9]. Group 1: Rig Count and Capital Expenditures - In May, Coterra had planned to reduce its rig count to seven by the second half of 2025 and cut capital expenditures in the Permian by $150 million due to concerns over potential oil price collapses [2]. - The company now expects to keep its rig count steady at nine, which will push its capital spending to the high end of the updated annual guidance of $2 billion to $2.3 billion [3][9]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Conditions - Coterra has expressed confidence in its ability to remain profitable even in lower price environments, stating it can deliver solid returns with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude priced between $60 and $65 per barrel, and can still be viable with prices dipping to $50 [4][9]. - The company’s flexibility is enhanced by the fact that only a few of its rigs are locked into long-term contracts, allowing for quick adjustments in response to market conditions [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategic Outlook - The decision to maintain the rig count reflects Coterra's cautious optimism in a still-fragile market, as the sentiment around oil prices stabilizes [5]. - This strategic pivot indicates a recalibration towards resilience rather than retreat in the face of market uncertainties [5].

Core Insights - Coterra Energy is participating in the 2025 J.P. Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables and Mining Conference, highlighting its strategic importance in the energy sector [1] - The company has a unique capital allocation strategy that invests in both liquids and oil as well as natural gas, which is particularly relevant given the current volatility in energy markets [3] Company Overview - Thomas E. Jorden, the CEO, emphasizes the macroeconomic concerns surrounding oil prices, indicating a renewed focus on oil within the industry [4] - Coterra's approach to capital allocation allows it to leverage its strong asset base across different segments of the commodity price spectrum, providing a competitive advantage [3]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the oil and gas industry, particularly focusing on the impact of the shale revolution on U.S. oil production and energy independence [2][3][4]. Key Company Insights Company Position and Strategy - The company, Kotera, emphasizes its strong position in the market, highlighting its stability in cash flow and low cost of supply, which allows for flexible capital allocation [5][6]. - Kotera has a balanced asset portfolio that enables it to maintain capital efficiency despite price volatility in the oil and gas markets [5][6]. Capital Allocation - The company has adjusted its capital allocation strategy, moving some capital from oil to gas due to market uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East [6][10]. - Kotera can achieve returns at oil prices as low as $50 per barrel, indicating a robust operational efficiency [6][10]. Natural Gas Production - Kotera produces approximately 3 billion cubic feet (BCF) of natural gas per day, with a balanced revenue stream from both oil and gas [11][12]. - The company is actively drilling in the Marcellus and Anadarko regions, with plans to drill 11 wells this year and 17 in the next couple of years [12][13]. Inventory Depth and Growth - Kotera asserts that it has a deep inventory across its three core business units, with a focus on maintaining high-quality inventory for future growth [15][17]. - The company is confident in its ability to grow volumes while investing only 50% of its cash flow, which is a significant improvement from a decade ago when it was outspending its cash flow [16][21]. Mechanical Issues and Response - Kotera faced a mechanical issue with 11 wells in the Harkie shale, which temporarily affected its market cap by approximately $2 billion [22][24]. - The company has identified a solution to the mechanical issue and is optimistic about bringing the affected wells back online [26][32]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its production guidance despite the mechanical issues, indicating a strong operational outlook [38]. - Kotera is redirecting some capital to the more productive Wolfcamp program due to the Harkie issue, which is expected to yield higher returns [39][40]. Regulatory and Market Considerations - The potential reactivation of the Constitution pipeline is a significant factor for Kotera's capital planning, as it could enhance gas transportation and market access [51][52]. - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment for the Constitution pipeline, which could lead to increased natural gas supply to New England [56][57]. Cash Return Strategy - Kotera plans to maintain its ordinary dividend as a priority, while also focusing on debt reduction following recent acquisitions [60][61]. - The company took on additional debt for acquisitions but aims to pay it off within the year [61][62]. Conclusion - Kotera is positioned well within the oil and gas industry, with a focus on operational efficiency, strategic capital allocation, and addressing mechanical challenges. The company remains optimistic about future growth and market opportunities, particularly in natural gas and pipeline infrastructure.

Group 1: Company Performance - Coterra Energy (CTRA) closed at $26.70, with a +2.14% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.13% [1] - The company has gained 5.87% in the past month, while the Oils-Energy sector gained 5.03% and the S&P 500 gained 3.55% [1] - The forecasted EPS for the upcoming release is $0.51, reflecting a 37.84% increase from the same quarter last year, with expected revenue of $1.76 billion, indicating a 38.54% growth [2] Group 2: Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are anticipated to be $2.59 per share and revenue is expected to be $7.59 billion, representing increases of +54.17% and +39.14% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates indicate positive revisions, suggesting analysts' confidence in the company's performance and profit potential [3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Coterra Energy has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.11, which is lower than the industry's Forward P/E of 11.19, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.35, significantly lower than the average PEG ratio of 2.55 for the Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry [7] Group 4: Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 172, placing it in the bottom 31% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of industry groups, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - Coterra Energy (CTRA) shares have increased by approximately 11% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The most recent earnings report is essential for understanding the key drivers behind this performance [1] Earnings Estimates - Estimates for Coterra Energy have trended downward in the past month, with a consensus estimate shift of -9.9% [2] - The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions indicate a downward shift, leading to a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) for the stock [4] VGM Scores - Coterra Energy has a Growth Score of B, but it is lagging in Momentum Score with an F [3] - The stock has a Value Score of B, placing it in the second quintile for this investment strategy, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of B [3] Industry Performance - Coterra Energy is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry [5] - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY), a peer in the same industry, has seen a gain of 7.8% over the past month [5] - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported revenues of $350.3 million for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +9.7% [6] - Magnolia's EPS for the same period was $0.55, compared to $0.49 a year ago, but it is expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share for the current quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of -30.4% [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Magnolia has changed by -8.3% over the last 30 days, resulting in a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) for the company [7]

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 9, compared to analysts' expectations of 111 Bcf [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,255 Bcf, which is 375 Bcf (14.3%) below the 2024 level but 57 Bcf (2.6%) higher than the five-year average [3] - Natural gas futures fell about 12% during the week, ending at $3.343/MMBtu, the lowest in two weeks, due to mild weather leading to subdued demand [4] Company Focus - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. after the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger, with significant assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 458.2% year-over-year surge, with an 18.7% increase in estimates over the past 60 days [7][8] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning approximately 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 20.3% over three to five years, compared to the industry's 17.8% [9][10] - **Excelerate Energy (EE)**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 10.2% year-over-year growth [11][12]

Group 1 - The sell side is currently engaged in a competitive analysis of the Energy sector, with Bank of America upgrading the sector to a buy rating [1] - The upgrade is based on the observation that while increased drilling activity may negatively impact oil-producing companies, the dividends offered by these companies remain robust and attractive to potential shareholders [1]

Group 1 - Coterra Energy (CTRA) reported Q1 2025 results with production approximately 2% above its guidance midpoint for the quarter [2] - The strong production results contributed to an increase in full-year production expectations by around 0.7% [2] Group 2 - The analyst Aaron Chow has over 15 years of analytical experience and is recognized as a top-rated analyst on TipRanks [3] - Aaron Chow co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment and has designed economic models for mobile apps with over 30 million combined installs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Coterra Energy Inc. reported strong operational performance in Q1 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of 78 cents, surpassing estimates and the previous year's performance, despite missing revenue expectations due to weaker oil prices. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were 78 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 76 cents and up from 50 cents in the year-ago quarter [1] - Operating revenues were $1.9 billion, missing estimates by $37 million but significantly higher than $1.4 billion from the previous year [2] - Cash flow from operations increased by 33.6% to $1.1 billion, with free cash flow for the quarter amounting to $663 million [13] Production and Pricing - Average daily production rose 8.8% to 746.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe), exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 740 Mboe [7] - Oil production increased 37.8% to 141.2 thousand barrels (MBbl) per day, although it missed the estimate of 144 MBbl [8] - Average realized crude oil price was $69.73 per barrel, down 7.2% from $75.16 a year ago, slightly missing the estimate of $70 [9] Shareholder Returns - The board declared a quarterly dividend of 22 cents per share, representing a 3.4% annualized yield [3] - Total shareholder returns for the quarter reached $192 million, including $168 million in dividends and $24 million in share repurchases [5] - The company repurchased 0.9 million shares for $24 million at an average price of $27.54 per share [4] Debt Management - Coterra is focused on debt reduction, repaying approximately $250 million during the quarter and planning to retire $750 million in term loans maturing in 2027 and 2028 [6][5] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $186 million in cash and cash equivalents and a total liquidity of about $2.2 billion [14] Guidance - For Q2 2025, Coterra expects total equivalent production between 710 to 760 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day [16] - The company has lowered its full-year 2025 capital expenditures range to $2-$2.3 billion [15] - Estimated discretionary cash flow for 2025 is approximately $4.3 billion, with free cash flow around $2.1 billion based on commodity price assumptions [17]

Financial Performance - Net income increased by $164 million from $352 million in 2024 to $516 million in 2025, representing a 46.5% increase[88] - Net cash provided by operating activities rose by $288 million, from $856 million in 2024 to $1.1 billion in 2025, a 33.6% increase[88] - Total operating revenues for the first quarter of 2025 were $1,904 million, a 33% increase from $1,433 million in 2024[123] - Natural gas revenues rose by $360 million, primarily due to a 64% increase in average sales price to $3.28 per Mcf[128] - Total dividends declared for Q1 2025 were $170 million, compared to $160 million in Q1 2024[110] Production Metrics - Equivalent production increased by 4.8 MMBoe, from 62.4 MMBoe in 2024 to 67.2 MMBoe in 2025, a 7.7% increase[88] - Oil production increased by 3.4 MMBbl, from 9.3 MMBbl in 2024 to 12.7 MMBbl in 2025, a 36.6% increase[88] - Oil production increased by 37% to 12.7 million barrels in Q1 2025 from 9.3 million barrels in Q1 2024[126] - The average daily production of oil increased by 38% to 141.2 MBbl in Q1 2025 compared to 102.5 MBbl in Q1 2024[126] Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures increased to $552 million in 2025 from $450 million in 2024, a 22.8% increase[88] - Capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2025 totaled $599 million, up from $456 million in the same period of 2024[113] - The company expects a full year capital program in the range of $2.0 billion to $2.3 billion for 2025[95] - The company expects its full-year 2025 capital program to be approximately $2.0 billion to $2.3 billion[114] Acquisitions and Dividends - The company closed two acquisitions in January 2025 for a total consideration of $3.2 billion in cash and stock[88] - The quarterly base dividend was increased from $0.21 per share to $0.22 per share in February 2025[88] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses for Q1 2025 totaled $1,202 million, a 21% increase from $992 million in Q1 2024[133] - Direct operations expenses rose to $216 million, up 38% from $156 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher production levels and costs in the Permian Basin[134] - Gathering, processing, and transportation costs increased by $32 million, driven by higher production and transportation rates in the Permian and Anadarko Basins[136] - Taxes other than income rose by $22 million to $96 million, with production taxes increasing due to higher production volumes in the Permian and Anadarko Basins[138] - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) expenses increased by $74 million to $506 million, primarily due to a higher depletion rate and increased production[139] - General and administrative expenses increased by $17 million to $92 million, largely due to acquisition and transition costs associated with the FME and Avant acquisitions[142] Debt and Interest - As of March 31, 2025, the company had total debt of $4.3 billion, with $3.5 billion under fixed-rate debt instruments[159] - Interest expense surged by $34 million to $53 million, mainly due to new debt issued to fund the FME and Avant acquisitions[144] - A hypothetical 100 basis point increase in the average interest rate under the term loan would increase interest expense by approximately $2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025[161] - The fair value of the company's long-term debt as of March 31, 2025, was estimated at $4.159 billion[164] Commodity Price Volatility - The company anticipates continued volatility in commodity prices and may utilize derivative instruments to hedge a portion of its production[151] - The company has a significant portion of its expected oil and natural gas production for 2025 and beyond currently unhedged and exposed to price volatility[155] Derivative Instruments - The company has outstanding oil collars covering 5.0 MMBbls, or 40% of oil production, at a weighted-average price of $69.12 per Bbl[156] - Natural gas collars covered 55.5 Mcf, or 20% of natural gas production, at a weighted-average price of $3.68 per MMBtu[157] - The company entered into financial commodity derivatives in April 2025, including NYMEX gas collars with a volume of 9,150,000 MMBtu and a weighted average ceiling of $5.21 per MMBtu[155] - Oil swaps covered 1.7 MMBbls, or 13% of oil production, at a weighted-average price of $69.18 per Bbl[156] - The company has not incurred any losses related to non-performance risk of counterparties in its derivative contracts[158]