Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coterra Energy achieved production levels above the high end of guidance for oil and natural gas, with capital expenditures near the low end of guidance [7][16] - The company returned 61% of free cash flow in Q4 2024 through dividends and share buybacks, totaling 89% for the full year [7][31] - Net income for Q4 was $297 million or $0.40 per share, with adjusted net income at $358 million or $0.49 per share [18] - Total equivalent production for 2024 was 677 MBOE per day, exceeding guidance by 4% and showing a 13% year-over-year organic growth in oil production [19][20] - Capital costs for 2024 were $1.76 billion, representing a 16% decrease year-over-year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw outperformance in new wells in both the Permian and Marcellus regions, with total production for Q4 exceeding guidance by over 3% [16][17] - Incurred capital in Q4 was just above the low end of guidance, driven by lower completion and post-completion costs [18] - The 2025 capital plan includes significant investments in oil while maintaining flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [10][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coterra expects total production in 2025 to average between 710 and 770 MBOE per day, with oil production projected to be 152 to 168 MBO per day, a 47% increase year-over-year at the midpoint [26] - Natural gas production is expected to remain relatively flat year-over-year, between 2.675 and 2.875 BCF per day [26] - The company is closely monitoring gas markets and is prepared to accelerate its Marcellus program if positive conditions persist [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Coterra's strategy focuses on capital efficiency, profitable growth, and maintaining flexibility in capital allocation across its operating regions [13][29] - The company successfully closed the Franklin Mountain and Avant acquisitions, integrating these assets to optimize operational efficiency [11] - The updated three-year outlook anticipates 5% or greater oil volume growth and aims for a capital investment of $2.1 to $2.4 billion per year [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver solid results in 2025, driven by strong operational performance and capital discipline [34] - The outlook for gas markets appears constructive, with management prepared to adjust activity levels based on market conditions [66][67] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and prioritize deleveraging while returning a significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders [32][33] Other Important Information - Coterra announced a $0.22 per share dividend for Q4, increasing the annual base dividend by 5% to $0.88 per share [30] - The company repurchased 17 million shares for $464 million in 2024, returning 89% of free cash flow through repurchases and dividends [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Key lessons learned from the Wyndham Row project - Management noted excellent reservoir performance and plans to continue co-developing wells based on positive results [54][56] Question: Clarification on 2025 guidance and production from acquired assets - Management confirmed that production guidance remains consistent despite the partial month of January production from acquired assets [59][60] Question: Restarting rigs in the Marcellus and conditions for increasing capital - Management indicated that returns from the Marcellus program are now competitive, and they are prepared to increase activity based on market conditions [64][66] Question: Future acquisition strategy post-Franklin Mountain - Management emphasized a focus on opportunistic acquisitions that align with the company's asset mix and value creation goals [70][72] Question: Capital efficiencies in the Marcellus and future run rates - Management expects to return to a run rate of 2 BCF per day in the Marcellus by mid to late 2026, contingent on market conditions [76][79] Question: Opportunities in power generation and midstream interests - Management is engaged in discussions regarding power generation opportunities, particularly in the Permian basin [82][123] Question: Growth capital allocation in a constructive gas market - Management stated that capital allocation will be based on return on investment, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [134][135]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coterra Energy achieved production levels above the high end of guidance for oil and natural gas, with capital expenditures near the low end of guidance [7][16] - Free cash flow in Q4 2024 was $351 million, with total equivalent production for the year at 677 MBOE per day, exceeding guidance by 4% [19][20] - The company reported net income of $297 million or $0.40 per share, and adjusted net income of $358 million or $0.49 per share [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil production for 2024 grew organically by 13% year over year, while natural gas production was in line with the high end of guidance [20][21] - Coterra's capital costs for 2024 were $1.76 billion, representing a 16% decrease year over year, indicating improved capital efficiency [21] - The company plans to run a consistent and highly capital-efficient program across its three operating regions in 2025, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects total production for 2025 to average between 710 and 770 MBOE per day, with oil production projected to be 47% higher year over year at the midpoint of guidance [26] - Natural gas production is expected to remain relatively flat year over year, with a target of 2.675 to 2.875 BCF per day [26] - Coterra is closely monitoring gas markets and is prepared to accelerate its Marcellus program if positive conditions persist [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Coterra's updated three-year outlook positions the company for industry-leading profitable growth and capital efficiency, with a focus on maximizing return on capital [13][28] - The company emphasizes flexibility in capital allocation, allowing for adjustments based on market conditions and operational efficiencies [10][29] - Coterra is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and prioritizing deleveraging, with plans to repay $1 billion of term loans in 2025 [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational performance and financial results for 2024, with expectations for solid results in Q1 2025 [34][52] - The company is optimistic about the gas market outlook, citing improved storage conditions and LNG demand as potential drivers for growth [66][67] - Management remains cautious about making decisions based on market conditions, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation [67][68] Other Important Information - Coterra returned 89% of free cash flow in 2024 through dividends and share buybacks, with a commitment to reviewing annual increases in the base dividend [31][30] - The company successfully integrated newly acquired Permian assets and is focused on optimizing capital and operational efficiency [11][22] - Coterra's 2025 capital plan includes significant investments in both oil and natural gas, with a focus on maintaining flexibility to respond to market changes [10][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Key lessons learned from the Wyndham Row project - Management highlighted excellent reservoir performance and plans to continue co-developing wells based on positive results [56][57] Question: Clarification on 2025 guidance and production from acquired assets - Management confirmed that production guidance remains intact despite the partial month of January production from acquired assets [60] Question: Restarting rigs in the Marcellus and conditions for increasing capital - Management indicated that competitive returns and improved market conditions are driving the decision to restart activity in the Marcellus [66][68] Question: Future acquisition strategy post-Franklin Mountain acquisition - Management stated that acquisitions will be opportunistic and based on favorable entry prices, with no current plans for aggressive acquisition strategies [70][72] Question: Expectations for Marcellus run rate and capital efficiency - Management anticipates returning to a run rate of 2 BCF per day in the Marcellus by mid to late 2026, contingent on market conditions [79] Question: Opportunities in power generation and midstream interests - Management confirmed active discussions regarding power generation opportunities, particularly in the Permian basin [82][121] Question: Growth potential in the Marcellus and Anadarko - Management expressed hope for growth in both basins if gas prices remain favorable, emphasizing a focus on returns over growth [115][116]

4Q24 Earnings Presentation February 24, 2025 2 Disclaimer Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information Forward-looking statements are based on the estimates and opinions of management at the time the statements are made. Except to the extent required by applicable law, Coterra does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these ...

Core Insights - Coterra Energy reported a revenue of $1.4 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a 12.6% decrease year-over-year, with an EPS of $0.49 compared to $0.52 in the same quarter last year [1] - The reported revenue met the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but the EPS exceeded expectations by 16.67% [1] Financial Performance - Coterra's revenue of $1.4 billion was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing a surprise of -0.40% [1] - The company achieved an EPS surprise of +16.67%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.42 [1] Production Volumes - Total daily equivalent production was 681.5 MBOE/d, surpassing the eight-analyst average estimate of 653.62 MBOE/d [4] - Natural gas liquids production was 105.4 MBbl, slightly below the average estimate of 106.67 MBbl [4] - Natural gas production reached 2,778.9 MMcf/d, exceeding the average estimate of 2,623.03 MMcf/d [4] - Oil production was 113 MBbl/d, above the seven-analyst average estimate of 110.38 MBbl/d [4] Average Sales Prices - The average sales price for natural gas (excluding hedges) was $2.02 per thousand cubic feet, higher than the average estimate of $1.97 [4] - The average sales price for NGL (including hedges) was $20.94 per barrel, compared to the estimated $20.18 [4] - The average sales price for oil (including hedges) was $68.7 per barrel, slightly below the average estimate of $68.89 [4] - The average sales price for oil (excluding hedges) was $68.57 per barrel, compared to the estimated $68.77 [4] Operating Revenues - Operating revenues from oil were reported at $713 million, slightly below the estimated $715.22 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 3.9% [4] - Operating revenues from natural gas were $516 million, exceeding the estimated $482.11 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.7% [4] - Operating revenues from NGL were $203 million, below the estimated $215.37 million, but showing a year-over-year increase of 20.8% [4] - Operating revenues from other sources were $14 million, significantly lower than the estimated $20.50 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 56.3% [4]

分组1 - Coterra Energy reported quarterly earnings of $0.49 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42 per share, but down from $0.52 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 16.67% [1] - Over the last four quarters, Coterra has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times, while Cabot reported revenues of $1.4 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.40% [2] - Cabot shares have increased approximately 10.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.2% [3] 分组2 - The earnings outlook for Cabot is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The trend for estimate revisions for Cabot is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for Cabot is $0.78 on $1.87 billion in revenues for the upcoming quarter and $3.32 on $7.87 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] 分组3 - The outlook for the oil and gas industry can significantly impact stock performance, with the Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States currently in the top 20% of over 250 Zacks industries [8] - Chord Energy Corporation is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -47.6%, with revenues anticipated to be $1.1 billion, up 14.4% from the year-ago quarter [9][10]

Production and Guidance - For Q4 2024, total barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) production exceeded guidance by over 3%, with total production reaching 682 MBoepd, surpassing the high end of guidance of 630 to 660 MBoepd[3] - 2025 total BOE production is projected to increase approximately 9% year-over-year, with oil volumes expected to rise by about 47%[9] - Full-year 2025 guidance for total equivalent production is projected between 710 MBoed and 770 MBoed, compared to 660 MBoed to 675 MBoed in 2024[70] - First quarter 2025 guidance for total equivalent production is projected between 710 MBoed and 750 MBoed, compared to 630 MBoed to 660 MBoed in the fourth quarter of 2024[71] - Net wells turned in line for the Permian Basin are expected to increase from 80 in 2024 to between 150 and 165 in 2025[70] Financial Performance - The company reported a net income of $297 million, or $0.40 per share, and adjusted net income of $358 million, or $0.49 per share for Q4 2024[8] - The company experienced a net income of $297 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to $416 million in the same quarter of 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 29%[42] - Net income decreased to $1,121 million in 2024 from $1,625 million in 2023, a decline of 31%[67] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was $358 million, compared to $387 million in Q4 2023, indicating a decrease of 7.5%[52] - Adjusted EBITDAX for Q4 2024 was $896 million, down 10.5% from $1,001 million in Q4 2023[61] - Adjusted EBITDAX for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $3,414 million, down from $3,928 million in 2023[67] Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures for Q4 2024 totaled $417 million, near the low end of the guidance range of $410 to $500 million[8] - The company expects 2025 capital expenditures to be between $2.1 billion and $2.4 billion, reflecting a 28% year-over-year increase at the midpoint[9] - Capital expenditures for drilling, completion, and other fixed asset additions totaled $425 million in Q4 2024, down from $468 million in Q4 2023[58] - Incurred capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to range from $2,100 million to $2,400 million, up from $1,750 million to $1,850 million in 2024[70] Shareholder Returns - Coterra announced a 5% dividend increase to $0.22 per share for Q4 2024, resulting in an annualized dividend of $0.88 per share, equating to a 3.1% yield[3] - Coterra's total shareholder returns for 2024 amounted to $1,086 million, representing 89% of the full-year Free Cash Flow[14] Debt and Liquidity - The company maintains a cash balance of $2.0 billion and total liquidity of approximately $5.0 billion, with a net debt to trailing twelve-month EBITDAX ratio of 0.4x[15] - Total long-term debt, net (excluding current maturities) rose to $3,535 million in 2024, compared to $1,586 million in 2023[45] - Total debt increased to $3,535 million in 2024 from $2,161 million in 2023, representing a 63.5% increase[64] - The company’s total debt to total capitalization ratio is a key measure for assessing leverage, with net debt calculated by subtracting cash and cash equivalents from total debt[62] - Total debt to total capitalization ratio rose to 21.2% in 2024 from 14.2% in 2023[64] - Net debt to adjusted capitalization ratio increased to 10.2% in 2024 from 8.5% in 2023[64] Production Costs and Prices - Average unit operating cost increased to $8.89/Boe in Q4 2024 from $8.41/Boe in Q4 2023, representing an increase of approximately 5.7%[32] - Coterra's total unit costs for Q4 2024 were $17.31/Boe, up from $16.00/Boe in Q4 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 7.9%[32] - Average sales price for oil in Q4 2024 was $68.57/Bbl, down from $77.10/Bbl in Q4 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 11.9%[30] - Average sales price for natural gas (excluding hedges) in Q4 2024 was $2.02/Mcf, a slight decrease from $2.03/Mcf in Q4 2023[30] Production Volumes - In Q4 2024, total natural gas production was 2,778.9 Mmcf/day, down from 2,970.0 Mmcf/day in Q4 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 6.4%[29] - Oil production in Q4 2024 was 113.0 MBbl/day, an increase from 104.7 MBbl/day in Q4 2023, reflecting a growth of about 4.4%[29] - The average daily equivalent production for the company in Q4 2024 was 681.5 MBoepd, slightly down from 697.4 MBoepd in Q4 2023, a decrease of about 2.7%[29] - The company reported a total of 313 wells drilled for the full year 2024, up from 264 wells in 2023, an increase of approximately 18.6%[30] - The company drilled 74 gross wells in Q4 2024, compared to 66 gross wells in Q4 2023, marking an increase of about 12.1%[30] - The company’s average rig count in the Permian Basin was 8.7 in Q4 2024, compared to 7.0 in Q4 2023, indicating an increase of about 24.4%[30] Cash Flow - Total cash flow from operating activities for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $2,795 million, down 23.6% from $3,658 million in 2023[56] - Discretionary cash flow for Q4 2024 was $776 million, compared to $881 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a decrease of 11.9%[56] - Free cash flow for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $1,214 million, a decline of 8.9% from $1,332 million in 2023[56] - The net increase in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash for Q4 2024 was $1,429 million, significantly higher than $109 million in Q4 2023[47] Derivative Instruments - The company reported a gain (loss) on derivative instruments of $(51) million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to a gain of $101 million in the same quarter of 2023[42] - The weighted average floor price for NYMEX collars in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to be $2.75 per MMBtu, with a ceiling of $7.66 per MMBtu[37] - The weighted average price for WTI oil swaps in 2025 is set at $69.18 per Bbl for all quarters[36] - The weighted average ceiling price for NYMEX collars in the fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to be $5.55 per MMBtu[37]

Core Viewpoint - Coterra Energy (CTRA) has shown strong year-to-date performance, outperforming its peers in the Oils-Energy sector, which has implications for investors looking for opportunities in this industry [1][4]. Company Performance - Coterra Energy has gained approximately 12.3% year-to-date, while the average gain for stocks in the Oils-Energy group is about 5.5%, indicating superior performance [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CTRA's full-year earnings has increased by 9.2% over the past three months, reflecting improved analyst sentiment and earnings outlook [3]. Industry Context - Coterra Energy is part of the Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which consists of 34 stocks and currently ranks 49 in the Zacks Industry Rank. This industry has experienced an average loss of 12.6% year-to-date, further highlighting CTRA's strong performance relative to its peers [6]. - The Oils-Energy sector, which includes 247 individual stocks, holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 7, indicating a moderate strength compared to other sectors [2].

Core Insights - Coterra Energy (CTRA) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, a decline of 19.2% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $1.4 billion, down 12.3% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 11.7%, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Operating revenues- Oil' to reach $715.22 million, reflecting a decrease of 3.6% year-over-year [5] - 'Operating revenues- Natural gas' is expected to be $482.11 million, indicating a decline of 12.8% from the prior year [5] - 'Operating revenues- NGL' is forecasted at $215.37 million, showing an increase of 28.2% compared to the same quarter last year [5] - 'Operating revenues- Other' is estimated to be $20.50 million, down 35.9% year-over-year [6] Production Volumes - Total company production volumes are expected to reach 653.62 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 697.4 MBOE/d a year ago [6] - Natural gas production volumes are projected at 2,623.03 million cubic feet per day, compared to 2,970 MMcf/d in the previous year [7] - Oil production volumes are estimated at 110.38 million barrels per day, up from 104.7 MBbl/d in the same quarter last year [7] Pricing Expectations - The average sales price for NGL is expected to be $20.18 per barrel, compared to $18.66 per barrel in the same quarter last year [8] - The average sales price for oil, excluding hedges, is projected to be $68.77 per barrel, down from $77.1 per barrel a year ago [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Cabot have returned -6.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 4.7% [8] - CTRA currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Coterra Energy is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024, with strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies positioning the company for long-term growth despite current challenges [1][2][8]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2024 earnings per share (EPS) is 42 cents, reflecting a 19.2% decline year-over-year, while revenues are projected at $1.4 billion, indicating a 12.3% decrease [1][2]. - For the full year 2024, the revenue estimate stands at $5.5 billion, down 7.4% year-over-year, and the EPS estimate is $1.60, representing a contraction of approximately 29.2% [3]. Earnings Estimates - The current quarter's EPS estimate has been revised downward by one cent over the past 30 days, with a year-over-year growth estimate of -19.23% [2][4]. - The consensus for crude volume in Q4 is pegged at 110 thousand barrels per day, slightly up from 105 thousand barrels per day in the previous year [10]. Strategic Acquisitions - Coterra's acquisition of Franklin Mountain Energy and Avant Natural Resources for $3.95 billion enhances its position in the Permian Basin, allowing for longer, more efficient wells and reduced costs [8]. - The strategic shift towards oil-rich assets in the Delaware Basin is expected to capitalize on robust oil prices, with oil volumes surpassing guidance in the previous quarter [9]. Market Performance - Coterra's stock has risen 16% over the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500's 10% gain and reflecting growing investor confidence due to strategic expansion and operational execution [11]. - The company has a Zacks Value Score of B, with competitive valuation metrics such as an EV/EBITDA ratio and a price/earnings ratio around 9X forward earnings [14]. Future Outlook - Coterra is positioned for long-term growth with strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency, generating over $1 billion in free cash flow recently and maintaining a low debt-to-capitalization ratio of 13.7% [16]. - The company has secured NGL export contracts to Europe and Asia from 2027 to 2038, providing revenue diversification and stability against domestic market fluctuations [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Coterra Energy (CTRA) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Coterra Energy is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 19.2% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $1.4 billion, which is a 12.2% decline from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 11.67% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The revisions may not uniformly reflect the direction of all analysts' estimates [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that recent estimate revisions may provide more accurate insights [5][6]. - A positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. Historical Performance - Coterra Energy's past performance shows that it has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once in the last four quarters [13]. - The company's surprise history indicates a tendency to miss expectations, as seen in the last reported quarter where it fell short by 5.88% [12]. Conclusion - While Coterra Energy is positioned as a potential earnings-beat candidate, other factors should also be considered before making investment decisions [16].