Humana跌17%，Elevance Health跌8%，Centene跌超7%。 (本文来自第一财经) Humana跌17%，Elevance Health跌8%，Centene跌超7%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of major U.S. health insurance companies have experienced significant declines in pre-market trading on January 27, with Humana dropping 17%, Elevance Health falling 8%, Centene decreasing by 7.7%, and Molina Healthcare declining by 7.3% [1] Company Summary - Humana's stock price decreased by 17% in pre-market trading [1] - Elevance Health's stock price fell by 8% in pre-market trading [1] - Centene's stock price declined by 7.7% in pre-market trading [1] - Molina Healthcare's stock price dropped by 7.3% in pre-market trading [1] Industry Summary - The health insurance industry is facing a downturn, as evidenced by the significant stock price drops of major companies [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government proposed an average increase of only 0.09% in Medicare payments to insurance companies for the next year, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for Medicare insurers [1] - The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) indicated that the proposal would provide an additional payment of over $700 million for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027 [1] - Major insurance companies such as UnitedHealth, CVS, and Humana saw their stock prices decline by nearly 12% in after-hours trading, while Elevance Health and Molina Healthcare experienced a drop of nearly 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elevance Health (ELV) is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $3.07, reflecting a decline of 20.1% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 10.1% to $49.53 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.2% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts predict 'Revenues- Service fees' at $2.13 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.7% [5]. - 'Revenues- Premiums' are estimated at $40.69 billion, reflecting a 12.3% year-over-year increase [5]. - 'Revenues- Net investment income' is expected to reach $469.69 million, indicating a decline of 10.9% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- Product revenue' is projected at $6.82 billion, a 1.5% year-over-year increase [6]. Membership Metrics - Total Medical Membership is projected to be 45.40 million, down from 45.73 million in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Medical Membership - Medicare - Medicare Advantage' is estimated at 2.24 million, up from 2.07 million year-over-year [7]. - 'Medical Membership - Medicaid' is expected to be 8.60 million, down from 8.92 million year-over-year [7]. - 'Medical Membership - Federal Employees Health Benefits' is projected at 1.63 million, slightly down from 1.66 million year-over-year [8]. - Total Medicare membership is expected to reach 3.11 million, up from 2.96 million year-over-year [8]. - 'Medical Membership - Commercial Risk-Based - Individual' is estimated at 1.33 million, up from 1.29 million year-over-year [9]. - 'Benefit Expense Ratio' is forecasted to be 93.4%, compared to 92.4% year-over-year [9]. - 'Medical Membership - Commercial Fee-Based' is expected to be 27.08 million, down from 27.20 million year-over-year [9]. Stock Performance - Elevance Health shares have returned +8.4% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change [10]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance relative to the overall market [10].

Core Viewpoint - Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28, 2026, with earnings estimated at $3.10 per share and revenues of $49.59 billion [1] Financial Performance - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has seen one downward revision and no upward revisions in the past month, indicating a year-over-year decline of 19.3% in earnings, while revenues are projected to increase by 10.2% year-over-year [2] - For the full year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Elevance's revenues is $197.98 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, while the EPS estimate is $29.99, showing a 9.2% year-over-year decrease [3] Earnings Prediction - The current Earnings ESP for Elevance is -1.41%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting that an earnings beat is unlikely this quarter [4] Revenue Drivers - The consensus estimate for product revenues indicates a 1.5% growth from the previous year's $6.7 billion, while premiums are expected to rise by 12.3% year-over-year, contributing to overall sales growth [5] - The estimate for Commercial Individual membership suggests a 3.5% growth year-over-year, although Commercial Fee-based memberships are projected to decline by 0.4% [6] Operating Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carelon brand's operating income indicates an 8.9% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by growth in CarelonRx, while the Health Benefits segment's operating income is expected to rise by 12.1% [7] Expense Outlook - Elevated expenses are anticipated due to significant investments in digital capabilities, with total expenses expected to increase by 8.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter [8]

BRISBANE, Australia, Jan. 21, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- North American lithium producer Elevra Lithium Limited (ASX:ELV; NASDAQ:ELVR; OTCQB:SYAXF) (“Elevra” or “Company”) advises that the Company’s December 2025 Quarterly Activities Report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, 28 January 2026 AEDT (Sydney, Melbourne). The Company will host an investor webcast covering the December 2025 Quarterly results commencing at 10.30am AEDT (Sydney, Melbourne) on Wednesday 28 January 2026. Retail shareholders and inve ...

Core Insights - Elevance Health Inc. (NYSE:ELV) is identified as a potentially undervalued stock within the S&P 500, with recent price target increases from analysts indicating positive sentiment towards the company [1][2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes raised the price target for Elevance Health to $413 from $400, maintaining an Outperform rating, while also noting a slowdown in healthcare utilization growth, suggesting a peak in recent healthcare demand [1][3]. - Wells Fargo increased its price target for Elevance Health to $424 from $403, maintaining an Overweight rating, with a focus on confidence in Medicare Advantage amidst uncertainties in Medicaid and health insurance exchanges [2]. Market Environment and Future Outlook - Mizuho anticipates a challenging environment for hospitals in 2026 as post-COVID tailwinds fade and legislative risks emerge, indicating potential headwinds for the healthcare sector [3]. - The ongoing debate regarding healthcare distributors revolves around whether performance will be influenced more by earnings revisions or valuation multiples, highlighting the complexities in the market [3]. Company Overview - Elevance Health operates as a health benefits company in the US, with four segments: Health Benefits, CarelonRx, Carelon Services, and Corporate & Other, indicating a diversified business model [4].

Core Insights - US health insurance companies continue to dominate the global insurance market, with UnitedHealth Group Inc. leading in net premiums written (NPW) for 2024 at $308.81 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.2% [1][5] Group 1: Top Insurers by Net Premiums Written - Four of the top five insurers and five of the top ten are US health insurers, with Centene Corporation in second place at $159.87 billion, up 6.9% from 2023 [2] - Elevance Health, Inc. and Kaiser Foundation Health Plan Group hold the third and fourth positions, reporting premiums of $144.17 billion and $128.81 billion, respectively [2] - State Farm Group moved up to fifth place from seventh, with a significant NPW increase of 16.4% to $114.47 billion, the highest percentage increase among the top ten [3] - China Life Insurance (Group) Co. fell to seventh from fifth, reporting $110.02 billion in NPW [3] Group 2: Notable Changes in Rankings - Progressive Corp., ranked 12th, recorded the highest percentage increase among the top 25 insurers, with premiums rising 20.9% to $74.42 billion [4] - Nippon Life Insurance Co., ranked 24th, experienced the largest percentage decline, down 10.9% to $44.95 billion in NPW [4] Group 3: Top Insurers by Non-Banking Assets - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. leads the ranking of the world's top 25 insurers by non-banking assets, reporting $1.15 trillion, an increase of 7.8% year over year [6] - Allianz SE fell to second place with $1.09 trillion in assets, up 6.2% [6] - The top five non-banking asset rankings remained unchanged, with China Life Insurance (Group) Co., Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd., and Prudential Financial, Inc. in third, fourth, and fifth places, respectively [7] Group 4: Changes in Non-Banking Assets - Athene Holding Ltd. recorded the largest percentage increase in non-banking assets, rising 20.9% to $363.34 billion [7] - Japan's National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives, ranked 21st, saw the largest decline, with assets falling 2.6% to $384.02 billion [8]

Core Insights - Impax Asset Management's "Impax US Sustainable Economy Fund" underperformed the Russell 1000 in Q3 2025, returning 7.33% compared to the index's 7.99% [1] - The fund's strategy focused on lower-risk and high-quality factors, which contributed to its underperformance in a risk-on market environment [1] Company Performance - Elevance Health, Inc. (NYSE:ELV) reported a one-month return of 1.80% and a 52-week decline of 4.32%, with a closing stock price of $366.69 and a market capitalization of $82.571 billion as of January 7, 2026 [2] - Elevance Health's operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $50.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12% [4] Earnings Guidance - Elevance Health's stock experienced a decline due to the company lowering its full-year earnings estimates by over 10% due to increased costs in Medicaid and Affordable Care Act plan channels [3]

Core Insights - Baupost Group's latest 13F filing reveals a highly selective and concentrated portfolio, focusing on durable businesses with long-term cash generation potential [1][2] Investment Moves - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: Increased by 4,203,300 shares to 8,252,862 shares, representing a $529.3 million position (11.05% of the portfolio). This is now Baupost's largest equity holding, indicating a belief in significant mispricing relative to its stable franchise model and cash flows [3][4] - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Increased by 703,000 shares to 1,319,000 shares, totaling a $426.2 million position (8.90%). The increase suggests confidence in the company's predictable cash flows and resilience in a politically noisy sector [5][6] - **Union Pacific (UNP)**: Newly established position with 1,496,204 shares, valued at $353.7 million (7.38%). The railroad's high barriers to entry and pricing power align with Baupost's focus on downside protection [7][8] - **Alphabet (GOOG)**: Reduced by 775,850 shares to 1,858,138 shares, now a $452.6 million position (9.45%). The reduction reflects portfolio risk management rather than a loss of conviction [9] - **CRH plc (CRH)**: Trimmed by 442,000 shares to 3,383,395 shares, valued at $405.7 million (8.47%). The trim indicates a disciplined approach to valuation, despite the long-term thesis remaining intact [10] - **Full Exits**: Baupost exited several positions entirely, including Viasat, Liberty Broadband, ICON plc, and Amcor, signaling a shift in risk-reward balance [11][12] Strategic Focus - The quarter was characterized by conviction-driven capital redeployment into high-confidence ideas, particularly in sectors like restaurants, railroads, healthcare, and materials [13][14] - Trimming positions like GOOG and CRH reflects a focus on risk management and valuation discipline rather than a bearish outlook [15] - The top 10 positions account for over 75% of disclosed assets, emphasizing Baupost's belief in concentration as a strategy against ignorance [16] - The portfolio prioritizes downside protection, with upside driven by business durability rather than macroeconomic bets [17]