Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $4.1 billion, an increase from $3.9 billion in Q1 2024, driven by strong volumes across various segments [4] - Distributable cash flow (DCF) attributable to partners was $2.3 billion, with approximately $955 million spent on organic growth capital [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - NGL and refined products segment adjusted EBITDA was $978 million, down from $989 million in Q1 2024, due to higher operating expenses and lower blending margins [5] - Midstream segment adjusted EBITDA increased to $925 million from $696 million, attributed to higher legacy volumes in the Permian Basin, which rose by 8% [5] - Crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA decreased to $742 million from $848 million, impacted by lower transportation revenues and higher expenses [6] - Interstate natural gas segment adjusted EBITDA rose to $512 million from $483 million, driven by record volumes [7] - Intrastate natural gas segment adjusted EBITDA fell to $344 million from $438 million, due to reduced pipeline optimization [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to spend approximately $5 billion on organic growth capital projects in 2025, with most projects anticipated to come online in 2025 or 2026 [9] - The company is experiencing strong demand for natural gas transportation, particularly in Texas, with significant opportunities in data centers and power generation [41][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its infrastructure to support growing demand for LNG and natural gas, with ongoing projects like the Hugh Brinson pipeline and Flexport expansion [10][11] - The company is optimistic about the new administration's support for the oil and gas industry, expecting a more favorable permitting process [85] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's diversified business model, which is well-positioned to manage market volatility and capitalize on growth opportunities [16][17] - Despite some recent slowdowns in production, management remains bullish on long-term growth, particularly in the LNG market [39][66] Other Important Information - The company is making substantial progress on the Lake Charles LNG project, with a target for final investment decision (FID) by year-end [20][104] - Sunoco's acquisition of Parkland Corporation is expected to create the largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Lake Charles progress and U.S. LNG market dynamics - Management is excited about the progress towards FID and has secured additional contracts, targeting 15 million tons of LNG production [22][24] Question: Potential for Energy Transfer to have a C Corp presence - Management is evaluating the option but has no immediate plans for a C Corp structure [27] Question: Outlook for production given commodity price volatility - Management noted that while there is some slowdown, the diversified nature of the business allows for resilience [38][66] Question: Speed of ramp for Flexport expansion and LPG export market - Management is confident in the demand for ethane and LPG, with significant contracts already in place [49][51] Question: Timing and capacity for Phase two of Hugh Brinson pipeline - Management is negotiating for more capacity than currently available and is optimistic about future expansions [57][60] Question: Changes in permitting process under the new administration - Management sees a more supportive environment for oil and gas projects, with expectations for easier infrastructure development [85] Question: Guidance for 2025 adjusted EBITDA - Management maintains guidance of $16.1 billion to $16.5 billion, with various factors influencing the range [88][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $4.1 billion, an increase from $3.9 billion in Q1 2024, driven by strong volumes in midstream operations and NGL exports [5] - Distributable cash flow (DCF) attributable to partners was $2.3 billion, with approximately $955 million spent on organic growth capital [5] - The company expects 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $16.1 billion and $16.5 billion, indicating a strong financial outlook despite some market volatility [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - NGL and refined products segment adjusted EBITDA was $978 million, slightly down from $989 million in Q1 2024 due to higher operating expenses [6] - Midstream segment adjusted EBITDA increased to $925 million from $696 million, attributed to higher legacy volumes in the Permian Basin [6] - Crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA decreased to $742 million from $848 million, impacted by lower transportation revenues and higher expenses [7][8] - Interstate natural gas segment adjusted EBITDA rose to $512 million from $483 million, driven by record volumes [9] - Intrastate natural gas segment adjusted EBITDA fell to $344 million from $438 million, affected by reduced pipeline optimization [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong NGL exports during the quarter, contributing positively to overall performance [5] - The Permian Basin saw an 8% increase in legacy volumes, enhancing the midstream segment's performance [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest approximately $5 billion in organic growth capital projects in 2025, with expectations for mid-teen returns [10] - Major projects include the Flexport NGL export expansion and several processing plant expansions in the Permian [10][12] - The company is optimistic about the Lake Charles LNG project, with significant progress towards commercialization and agreements with international partners [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's diversified business model, which is well-positioned to manage market volatility [17][18] - The new administration is seen as supportive of the oil and gas industry, with expectations for a more favorable permitting process [85] - Despite some recent slowdowns in production, management remains bullish on long-term growth prospects, particularly in the LNG and natural gas markets [39][66] Other Important Information - The company is excited about Sunoco's acquisition of Parkland Corporation, which is expected to create the largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas [19] - Construction of eight 10-megawatt natural gas-fired electric generation facilities is ongoing, with the first facility already in service [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Lake Charles progress and U.S. LNG competitiveness - Management is optimistic about reaching FID by year-end, with ongoing negotiations for additional capacity and partnerships [22][24] Question: Impact of commodity price volatility on production outlook - Management noted that while there is some slowdown, the diversified nature of the business helps mitigate risks [38][66] Question: Contracting position for NGL exports - The Flexport project is 90% contracted for three to five years, with expectations for strong international demand [76] Question: Potential for further expansion of Hugh Brinson pipeline - Management is exploring options for additional capacity and pricing power due to high demand [80][81] Question: Changes in permitting processes under the new administration - Management sees a more supportive environment for infrastructure projects, which is expected to benefit the company [85]

ENERGY TRANSFER REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2025 RESULTS Dallas – May 6, 2025 - Energy Transfer LP (NYSE:ET) ("Energy Transfer" or the "Partnership") today reported financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. Energy Transfer reported net income attributable to partners for the three months ended March 31, 2025 of $1.32 billion compared to $1.24 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2024. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net income per common unit (basic) was $0.37. Adjusted EBITDA for ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP (ET) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with a revenue estimate of $23.37 billion, reflecting an 8.07% increase year-over-year, and earnings estimated at 33 cents per unit, indicating a 3.13% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET's first-quarter earnings is 33 cents per unit, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 3.13% [2]. - For the current quarter (March 2025), the consensus estimate is 0.33, while the next quarter (June 2025) is estimated at 0.30. The current year (December 2025) is projected at 1.40, and the next year (December 2026) at 1.41 [3]. Surprise History - Energy Transfer has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, resulting in an average negative surprise of 8.33% [4][5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a likely earnings beat for Energy Transfer, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6][8]. Factors Influencing Q1 Earnings - The company is expanding its clean power generation capacity, having brought online the first of eight planned 10-megawatt natural gas-fired power plants, which is expected to positively impact earnings [8]. - ET is increasing its liquid transportation and processing capacity, completing significant expansions in the Permian Basin and constructing a new crude oil pipeline, which is likely to enhance first-quarter earnings [9]. - Strong export volumes of liquefied petroleum gas to over 55 countries, with a capacity to export nearly 1.1 million barrels per day, are expected to contribute positively to performance [10]. - Fee-based contracts are projected to generate nearly 90% of the company's earnings, ensuring a consistent revenue stream [11]. Valuation Metrics - Energy Transfer units are trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 10.14X, below the industry average of 11.45X, indicating relative undervaluation [12]. Stock Performance - ET's units have gained 3.4% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas Production Pipeline – MLB industry's rally of 3.2% [15]. Investment Thesis - Energy Transfer operates a vast network of over 130,000 miles of pipelines across 44 states, positioning the company to benefit from rising U.S. production of oil and gas [18]. - Continued investment in expanding pipeline and processing capacity is expected to reinforce its leadership in the midstream industry, supported by strong LNG export capabilities and growing domestic demand [19][20].

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET ) stock has not felt quite good since February 12 , when I shared my previous bullish call. The stock is down more than 13%, which is a notable underperformance compared to theAs an investor who started my path five years ago with my own capital, I represent a blend of hands on experience and academic background in corporate finance. Due to my relatively young age I thrive on discovering long-duration growth opportunities and actively seek out opportunities that align with my ri ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the preference for Chevron over Energy Transfer LP, indicating a strategic investment choice based on independent research findings [1]. Group 1 - Energy Transfer LP stock was previously analyzed on March 13, 2025, with a recommendation to buy Chevron instead [1]. - The investment style emphasized by the company focuses on providing actionable and clear investment ideas derived from independent research [1]. Group 2 - The company claims to have assisted its members in outperforming the S&P 500 while avoiding significant losses during periods of high volatility in both equity and bond markets [2]. - A trial membership is offered to potential investors to evaluate the effectiveness of the company's investment methods [2].

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is facing challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility, but some companies are positioned to potentially exceed earnings expectations, which could positively impact their stock prices in the near term [1]. Sector Snapshot - Oil prices have decreased in Q1 2025, with West Texas Intermediate crude averaging $71.84 per barrel, down from $77.56 in Q1 2024, attributed to soft global demand, rising inventories, and increased non-OPEC+ production [2]. - U.S. natural gas prices have rebounded sharply, averaging $4.15 per MMBtu compared to $2.13 a year ago, driven by colder weather and growing LNG exports [2]. Earnings Expectations - S&P 500 energy firms are projected to report a 12.9% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 0.3% dip in revenues, indicating ongoing pressure on profit margins [3][5]. - This decline is an improvement from the 22.4% earnings drop in Q4 2024, but still reflects significant challenges for oil-centric companies [3][6]. Company Performance Insights - Some energy companies are expected to perform better due to effective cost management, operational efficiency, and a focus on natural gas, which may lead to earnings surprises [4][7]. - Energy Transfer (ET) has an Earnings ESP of +9.23% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings scheduled for release on May 6 [11][12]. - MPLX LP also has a +9.23% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings set to be released on May 6 [12]. - Pembina Pipeline (PBA) has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings scheduled for May 8 [13]. - ConocoPhillips (COP) has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings also scheduled for May 8 [14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Energy Transfer LP (ET) will report quarterly earnings of $0.33 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, with anticipated revenues of $23.37 billion, an increase of 8.1% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.8% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts project 'Midstream - Gathered volumes' to reach 20,742.84 BBtu/D, up from 19,922 BBtu/D year-over-year [5]. - The estimate for 'Midstream - NGLs produced' is 1,074.53 million barrels of oil per day, compared to 890 million barrels of oil per day in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Midstream - Equity NGLs' is expected to be 61.29 million barrels of oil per day, up from 52 million barrels of oil per day in the same quarter of the previous year [6]. - 'NGL and Refined Products Transportation and Services - NGL and refined products terminal volumes' are projected at 1,435.33 million barrels of oil per day, compared to 1,395 million barrels of oil per day in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'NGL and Refined Products Transportation and Services - NGL fractionation volumes' are expected to reach 1,138.21 million barrels of oil per day, up from 1,053 million barrels of oil per day year-over-year [8]. - 'NGL and Refined Products Transportation and Services - Refined products transportation volumes' are projected at 574.88 million barrels of oil per day, slightly up from 573 million barrels of oil per day in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'NGL and Refined Products Transportation and Services - NGL transportation volumes' are expected to be 2,256.76 million barrels of oil per day, down from 2,087 million barrels of oil per day year-over-year [10]. Adjusted EBITDA Estimates - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Intrastate transportation and storage' is forecasted to reach $317.34 million, compared to $438 million in the same quarter last year [10]. - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Interstate transportation and storage' is expected to be $510.83 million, up from $483 million in the same quarter last year [11]. - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Crude oil transportation and services' is projected at $780.04 million, down from $848 million in the same quarter last year [11]. - 'Adjusted EBITDA- NGL and refined products transportation and services' is expected to reach $1.06 billion, compared to $989 million year-over-year [12]. - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Midstream' is projected at $770.07 million, up from $696 million in the same quarter last year [13]. Stock Performance - Energy Transfer LP shares have decreased by 6.8% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.5% [13].

Group 1 - Companies that combine high dividend yields with significant buyback programs are considered strong investment opportunities due to their substantial cash flow and solid balance sheets [1] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying profitable opportunities while minimizing costs, with an annual investment of over $100,000 in research [2] - The approach has garnered over 180 five-star reviews from members, indicating a positive reception and effectiveness of the strategies employed [2]

Core Insights - Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) has experienced an 8% decline since the last coverage, aligning with the S&P 500 index performance [1] - The company is positioned at a strategic intersection of scale, strategy, and favorable industry trends, targeting a 5% growth in FY25 EBITDA and an ambitious $5 billion investment plan [1] Company Analysis - Leadership & Management: Energy Transfer has a proven track record in scaling businesses, demonstrating smart capital allocation and insider ownership, alongside consistent revenue growth and credible guidance [1] - Financial Health: The company showcases sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a long-term survival runway while avoiding excessive dilution and financial weaknesses [1] Market Positioning - Competitive Advantage: Energy Transfer benefits from a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, with network effects driving exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Investment Strategy - Valuation & Risk/Reward: The company employs revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling, ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential through institutional backing and market sentiment analysis [1] - Portfolio Construction: The investment strategy includes core positions (50-70%) in high-confidence, stable plays, growth bets (20-40%) in high-risk, high-reward opportunities, and speculative investments (5-10%) in moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]