Core Insights - Fox Corp exceeded Wall Street revenue expectations for the quarter, driven by strong advertising demand in its news and sports networks, as well as growth in its ad-supported streaming service Tubi [1] Group 1 - The company reported higher quarterly revenue, indicating robust performance in its advertising segments [1] - Advertising demand at Fox's news and sports networks contributed significantly to the revenue growth [1] - The ad-supported streaming service Tubi also experienced growth, further enhancing the company's overall revenue performance [1]

The Company reported total quarterly revenues of $5.18 billion, an increase of $104 million or 2% from the amount reported in the prior year quarter. Distribution revenues increased 4%, primarily driven by 5% growth at the Cable Network Programming segment. Advertising revenues increased 1%, primarily due to higher sports and news pricing, continued digital growth led by the Tubi AVOD service, and the impact of additional MLB postseason games, partially offset by lower political advertising revenues and low ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Fox (FOXA) will report quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 51% and revenues of $5.06 billion, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts predict 'Revenues by Component- Advertising' to reach $2.30 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of -5.1% [3] - 'Revenues by Component- Distribution' is expected to be $1.95 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of +2.5% [4] - 'Segment Revenues- Television' is projected at $2.87 billion, showing a decline of -3.1% year over year [4] - 'Segment Revenues- Cable Network Programming' is estimated to reach $2.18 billion, with a year-over-year change of +0.8% [4] - 'Revenues by Component- Other' is expected to be $816.35 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of +8% [5] - 'Revenues- Television- Advertising' is forecasted at $1.88 billion, reflecting a decrease of -4.3% from the previous year [6] - 'Revenues- Cable Network Programming- Distribution' is projected to reach $1.13 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of +4.8% [7] EBITDA Estimates - Analysts suggest that 'Segment EBITDA- Cable Network Programming' will likely reach $555.18 million, down from $657.00 million reported in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - Fox shares have decreased by -4.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +1.8% [8] - Fox has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations to outperform the overall market in the near term [8]

Key Takeaways FOXA is expected to benefit from strong NFL viewership and FOX News ratings supporting reach and ad demand.Year-over-year comparisons are expected to be impacted by the absence of prior political advertising revenues.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FOXA's Q4 2025 EPS is pegged at 46 cents, unchanged over the past 30 days.Fox Corporation (FOXA) is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 4.For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 46 ...

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is heavily influenced by broadcasting rights, which are controlled by a limited number of players, highlighting the competitive landscape and the significance of rights acquisition in driving market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The emergence of Main Street Sports Group as a challenger in the media industry indicates a shift in competitive dynamics, potentially impacting established players like FOX Corporation [1]. - The research team emphasizes the importance of identifying market inefficiencies and undervalued opportunities within the media sector to generate long-term investment returns [1]. Group 2: Investment Approach - The investment strategy combines top-down macroeconomic themes with bottom-up fundamental analysis to create robust investment theses based on attractive valuations [1]. - Valuation methods employed include both extreme bear and conservative bull cases, which aim to provide a margin of safety for investors, ensuring consistent risk-adjusted returns [1].

Core Viewpoint - Fox Corporation is experiencing a strong performance driven by its diverse media offerings and strategic initiatives, despite facing a projected decline in earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal 2026. Group 1: Company Overview - Fox Corporation, based in New York, has a market capitalization of approximately $32.7 billion and operates 29 full-power broadcast stations, reaching audiences through various channels including cable, satellite, and digital platforms [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Analysts forecast a diluted EPS of $0.46 for fiscal 2026 Q2, representing a 52.1% decline from $0.96 in the same quarter last year, although the company has a history of beating EPS estimates [2]. - For fiscal 2026, Wall Street projects a diluted EPS of $4.42, a 7.5% year-over-year decline, followed by a rebound in fiscal 2027 with EPS growth of 15.2% to $5.09 [2]. Group 3: Stock Performance - FOXA stock has surged 53.4% over the past 52 weeks and has gained 4.2% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market and the S&P 500 Index, which rose 16.2% over the same period [3]. - The stock's performance is particularly notable within the communications sector, where it has outperformed the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF, which increased by 18.6% in 52 weeks but declined slightly year-to-date [3]. Group 4: Recent Developments - On October 30, 2025, FOXA stock rose 7.7% intraday following strong fiscal 2026 Q1 results, with revenue climbing 4.9% year-over-year to $3.74 billion, exceeding analyst estimates [4]. - Adjusted EPS for the first quarter increased by 4.1% to $1.51, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.08 [4]. - The strong performance was significantly driven by Tubi, which achieved its first profitable quarter, with ad revenue increasing by approximately 27% and average viewing time rising by 18% [5]. - NFL ratings also improved, up nearly 12% year-over-year, reinforcing Fox's dominance in live sports content [5]. - Additionally, Fox announced a $1.5 billion share buyback, indicating management's confidence in the company's growth trajectory and commitment to returning capital to shareholders [5].

Group 1: Fox and Flutter's FanDuel - Fox has the option to acquire an 18.6% stake in Flutter's FanDuel, which holds over 30% market share in U.S. sports betting [2][3] - The option originated from Fox's 2019 investment in The Stars Group, which was later folded into FanDuel after Flutter's acquisition [3] - CEO Lachlan Murdoch confirmed Fox's intention to exercise the option, with a potential FanDuel valuation around $35 billion [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Other News - Analysts view the FanDuel option as a hidden asset value for Fox, with varying opinions on the timing for exercising the option [5] - LifeMD and GoodRx stocks rose after adding Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss pill to their offerings, priced at $149 per month [5] - Samsung and SK hynix are expected to raise server memory prices by up to 70% in Q1 due to increased AI demand [6]

Industry Overview - Streaming has evolved into a primary viewing choice for many households, driven by faster connectivity and changing audience habits, creating opportunities for companies like Sony, Fox, and Roku [2] - The appeal of streaming includes convenience and control, leading platforms to invest in original programming and technology to enhance viewer engagement [3] - Industry projections suggest global streaming revenues could approach $190 billion by 2029, supported by nearly 2 billion subscriptions worldwide [4] Company Insights: Sony Group Corporation - Sony's strategic move into streaming began with the acquisition of Crunchyroll for approximately $1.17 billion, creating a global anime platform [7] - By mid-2025, Crunchyroll had over 17 million paid subscribers, showcasing the growth of anime as a mainstream category [8] - Sony Pictures Core focuses on delivering premium film content directly to consumers, enhancing the value of Sony devices [9] - Sony is expanding geographically through partnerships, including launching dedicated subscription channels on platforms like Prime Video [10] Company Insights: Fox Corporation - Fox's streaming strategy gained momentum with the acquisition of Tubi, a free ad-supported platform, which has become central to its direct-to-consumer approach [11] - Tubi reached quarterly profitability in Q1 of fiscal 2026, achieving 27% revenue growth driven by an 18% increase in viewership [13] - Tubi aims for a long-term margin framework of 20-25%, positioning it as a significant future earnings growth engine [14] - The platform is capitalizing on younger viewers migrating to free streaming, enhancing its content slate and advertising capabilities [15] Company Insights: Roku - Roku transitioned from hardware to an end-to-end streaming platform, enhancing its ecosystem for content distribution and advertising [16] - In Q3 2025, Roku's total streaming hours reached 36.5 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, supporting ad inventory growth [17] - Roku's streaming services distribution is gaining traction, with improved content discovery and a focus on live sports to drive subscriber growth [18] - The launch of Howdy, a low-cost ad-free service, broadens Roku's audience and enhances margins as subscriptions scale [19]

Core Insights - Tubi has achieved profitability in 2023 by attracting younger audiences willing to watch ads, positioning itself as a strong competitor in the streaming market [1][7] Streaming Market Dynamics - Tubi accounted for 2.1% of total streaming minutes in November, surpassing platforms like Peacock and HBO Max, while YouTube remains the leader [2] - The rise in streaming costs has led consumers to seek cheaper, ad-supported options, with many canceling subscriptions rather than cutting cable [3][4] Audience Demographics - Nearly 60% of Tubi's audience consists of millennials and Generation Z, with a significant portion being multicultural [5] - Tubi has over 100 million monthly active users and streams 1 billion hours of content each month, compared to Netflix's 300 million subscribers [4] Content Strategy - Tubi enhances its library through licensing and produces original content on a smaller scale, including airing NFL games [6] - The platform offers over 300,000 titles, with a notable focus on horror content, boasting the largest collection in that genre [11] Financial Performance - Tubi reported a 27% revenue growth for the fiscal quarter ending September 30, driven by an 18% increase in total view time [7] - Fox's stock has risen over 40% this year, contrasting with the performance of other media stocks amid market uncertainty [8] Competitive Positioning - Tubi differentiates itself by being 100% ad-supported, unlike other platforms that offer ad-supported tiers [15] - The platform's viewer engagement is higher, with 95% of users actively choosing what to watch, making them more receptive to advertisements [14] Targeting Younger Audiences - Tubi has launched initiatives like "Tubi for Creators" to attract younger viewers and has signed deals with popular YouTube creators [17][18] - The platform has successfully engaged younger audiences with content like "Sidelined," which has attracted nearly 20 million viewers [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim raised its price target on FOX Corp. to $85.00 from $75.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting FOX as a top investment idea in the media sector due to its focus on sports and news programming, which are driving revenue and profit growth despite industry challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Guggenheim increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA forecast to $452 million from $439 million, and raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate to $3.29 billion from $3.27 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected advertising trends at Fox News and continued pricing power in sports [3] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - FOX is positioned to benefit from strong advertising demand and moderating subscription declines compared to peers, aided by the rise of "skinny bundles" and an upcoming cycle of distributor renewals where FOX is expected to gain market share [2] - Additional growth catalysts for FOX include a robust content slate featuring the FIFA World Cup and U.S. elections, along with disciplined investments in growth initiatives such as Tubi, FOX One, and sports gambling [2] Group 3: Industry Context - The firm acknowledged that NFL contracts are likely to be renewed at higher costs ahead of their 2027 expiration, but believes the expense increase will be manageable and provide long-term visibility into the 2030s [3]